Sweet 16

So he were are again. The Sweet 16.  Not a bad place to be, we could have lost in the first round, so I will take this.  In the first weekend of games there were some serious upsets.  Lehigh over Duke, Norfolk State over Mizzo and even UM losing.  I did not have UM in the sweet 16 (I picked Temple to beat them..) But I did not expect to see Ohio beat the Wolverines.   This is a good thing for UM, and it was a hell of a run for their seniors.  This loss will show Beilein that they need to get the ball in the post more, Mitch McGary will certainly help that next year. The question is, is Trey Burke staying?  He is better than Darius Morris was at this point and he took off.  I gotta assume Trey is gonna stay.  UM should be favorites to win the B1G next year.

So what can we expect from Louisville?  Well, a lot of full court press, a lot of zone defense, and always running the ball.  This isn't the best Louisville team in the past few years but they aren't slouches either.  This is a very athletic and long team on the defensive end anchored by a 7 foot center and this team will look to get breaks and push the  ball up the court.    It will be interesting to see how MSU handles the half court defense.  Beating a zone has not been an MSU strong suit for as long as I can remember.  Were gonna need to come ready to shoot the ball.  Should MSU be off from long range we will be down big early.  What is encouraging is the shooting night that Appling had against Saint Louis.  His three ball is still off but he shot 50% from the floor and lead both teams in the FGA.  This is a huge factor in the game, how well is Keith shooting.  With that, the 7 footer is going to clog up the lane unlike any previous opponent MSU has faced.  This length will make it hard for Payne to get off his patented 6-foot hook/jumpshot he does.  Payne has been abusing defenders with that move all season.  I  do not see this match up going well for Nix unless he can really use his body to create separation, but then are fouls going to be called on him?  Hard to say.  What Nix could end up being very devastating at is an inside out game.  The two of them are going to have to run down the floor a lot and execute perfectly on the offensive end.  Teams are only shooting 38% against the Cardinals - MSU needs to take care of the rock and grab boards.

On the flip side, MSU needs to play the defense they have been playing all year.  Louisville starting 5 are shooting a solid 45% from the floor and a less stellar 25% from 3.  What this tells you is that they are deadly from inside the arch.  That 3-point % is weighing down the floor %.  MSU will need to continue to hedge off the high screens and stop the entry pass into their 7-footer (Dieng).  I can see Louisville trying to exploit this early and get our bigs in foul trouble.  That's what I would do if I wanted to beat MSU.  Our perimeter defense should be able to stay with Louisville.  It is just a matter of not giving up any easy buckets. 

I can see this game going either way so I wont venture a guess on the score.  Tomorrow is my birthday though so MSU  better win!

(time to go old school)