Saturday, December 31, 2011

Bowl Game Preview Or Not

I really need to get a bowl preview up.  That will happen a little later.  In the meantime, enjoy this. 



Someone has been getting their blast on.  Very nice. 

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

B1G Season Is Here!

And to be fully honest, I am not prepared.  I have been able to catch a handful of MSU games,  and did manage to see the last 5 minutes of the Indiana Kentucky game.  But man am I way off on being able to have any sort of analysis, especially when it comes to Indiana.  When watching MSU, there are three things that are evident.

1: Draymond is the key. 
Everything seems to flow through Draymond.  Green is the 100% leader of this team.  His game on the court really controls the tempo for the entire team.  If Draymond can knock down jumpers, were gonna beat almost everyvody.  If Green is snagging boards, then were pushing it on the break.  It will be intersting to see who guards Zeller.  Green is probably the best defensively to guard big men, but that matchup is terrible for us.  So is Nix or Payne though.  That will be an interesting matcup.  The MSU front court versus Zeller. 

2: 4 and 5 play.
So far this year, our 4 and 5 spots have been both up and down.  Depending on the lineup there is any  number of people that play the two big spots, Payne, Nix, Green, Dawson, Gauna. At time, any one of those players has looked really good (well, Green has looked good most of the year).  I think right now, the continual development of Payne is necessary.  Payne has all the tools to be a monster.  But it seems that his body cant keep up with his athleticism.  This both limits him minutes wise due to conditioning, and moves wise due to coordination.  It looks like at times he surprises himself with his jumping or quick moves.  With that,  Joe Rexrode has stated many times that in practices and scrimmages, Payne rains it from three.   That has yet to be seen in games.   Nix has been a serious positive.  His free throw % is only at 54% but it seems that he is confident as ever when shooting the ball from the stripe.  In the post, Nix is a load.  He has good moves, lots of up and unders, and great vision to get the ball to teammates.  For now, I like the idea of Zeller guarding Nix.  I think Nix's size could get Zeller into foul trouble if utilizied correctly IE, ball fakes and attacking the rim. 

3: We will need outside scoring.
This is pretty much a no brainier for almost every college basketball team, but especially true for MSU the last 4 years.  Wood has been a welcome relief for MSU when it comes to shooting over the last 5 games, hovering at about 50%, I am not sure what his eFG% is over that span (that's about the only worthwhile tempo stat).  Appling has shown the ability to shoot the three but his best game is leading a fast break.  He is no Lucas in the half court but has the ability to be a better finisher on fast breaks.  If Appling shoot it only when he needs to and build confidence in his game on the defensive end, that will bold well.  Travis Trice is shooting over 50% the last 6 games from three.  To me, Trice has been the most impressive player so far this year.  Trice's ability to stay hot will keep us in this game. 

Prediction:
Based on that last sentence, you can probably see where I am going with this prediction.  While we are home, the students are away and I believer the Izzo Alumni will be in attendance.  This probably wont be much worse than what the student section has shown so far this year, but still, students are students, who knows what they would pull.  This looks to be a great match up for MSU against what might be the second best B1G team.  I see Indiana sneaking this one out in a hotly contested game, and free throws will matter 77-72 IU. Prove me wrong State. 

(first post in a while, I need to get back into things)

Sunday, December 25, 2011

merry christmas

Not a lot of content lately.  but MSU plays Indiana this week.  I shall return then!

Merry Christmas!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

So There Was This Joke

I've heard many coaches names used, but for the purposes of this blog we'll go with...

Q: What do Marijuana and Mark Dantonio have in common? 
A: They both get smoked in bowls.

Seriously though, Dantonio's bowl record (0-4) is probably the only blemish on his resume as Michigan State's coach.  Is this the year he can finally get a bowl victory?  And how will the rest of the Big Ten do?

B1G Bowl Preview

Little Caesar's
Western Michigan vs Purdue


A solid matchup in Detroit.  Alex Carder and the Broncos can really sling the ball around the field and put up points.  Purdue seemed to improve as the season went along and they figured out what they were doing at quarterback and played pretty solid defensively.  I expect an exciting game with WMU moving the ball and Purdue getting some big plays on both sides of the ball.

Purdue 35 WMU 31

Insight
Iowa vs Oklahoma

Yikes.  Broyles is out so the Sooners aren't quite as dangerous as they once were...but they are still far too efficient for the Hawkeyes to shut them down.  Oklahoma may not be very excited to be in this game and the Hawkeyes could use better motivation to go out and steal a victory.  The problem I see here is that Iowa's secondary is just not very good and Oklahoma knows how to pass the football.  Hope I'm wrong, but I see this as a lopsided game not going in the Big Ten's favor.

42-17 Oklahoma


Meineke Car Care of Texas
Texas A&M vs Northwestern

Is this a matchup vs the Big 12 or the SEC?  Who knows, but the Aggies are a very talented team who underachieved and lost a bunch of close games throughout the year. If the Big 12 was as good as the computers thought this season this game is not going to go well for the Big Ten.  However, I have hope here.  Teams that lose a lot of games don't usually figure out how to win all of a sudden.  Northwestern will have Persa healthy and practicing for an entire month leading up to this game.  The scoreboard may explode in this game.

42-35 Texas A&M


Kraft Fight Hunger
Illinois vs UCLA


Ha.  The all-disappointment bowl?  Both teams have fired their coaches and they come into this game with a combined losing record.  This game probably won't get much pub nationally (why would it?) but I think it will be an interesting one to watch.  I think these teams are actually a very competitive matchup.  Illinois quit on their coach late in the season but may have the desire to come out and play for their new head man.  UCLA got obliterated by USC but actually made a good effort against Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game.

Who knows how this one will go, both teams have shown glimpses of being solid teams and both teams have shown glimpses of something else.  There probably won't be a ton of points put up in this game.

20-14 UCLA

Ticketcity
Houston vs Penn State

The ultimate offense versus defense matchup.  Case Keenumm and the Cougars have struggled against elite defenses and Penn State has just that, an elite defense.  It will be interesting to see how Penn State plays as they continue to deal with the fallout of the Jerry Sandusky scandal and Joe Pa's firing.  I envision Silas Redd having a very successful day on the ground and Penn State frustrating the Cougars with their defense.


28-24 PSU



Outback
Michigan State vs Georgia

Both squads lost in their conferences respective championship games.  I always want B1G teams to beat the SEC.  I certainly expect Sparty to give a much better showing than they did last year versus Alabama.  This is a good Georgia team facing a good Michigan State team.  I really like this matchup and look forward to seeing how the B1G stacks up.


I heard someone question Sparty's motivation in this game....really?  I think Mark D will have his guys playing the no respect card and come out fired up.  Will it be enough?  Should be a great game.

33-30 MSU


Capital One
Nebraska vs South Carolina

This promises to be another tough matchup for the B1G against the SEC.  Both teams have played well and struggled at times.  I believe South Carolina is the more complete team and has a better defense but they are not the same offense without Marcus Lattimore.  Still, I believe more in the old ball coach than I do in Bo Pelini.  This is another game I am very excited to watch.

24-21 South Carolina



Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
Ohio State vs Florida


The Urban Meyer bowl.   I like the Buckeyes in this game.  Florida will give a good effort against their former coach but their offensive coordinator has his foot out the door with Kansas and they just simply have issues on offense.  Braxton Miller has shown he can make some throws and with Posey, I think Ohio State's offense is a different animal.  Posey will want to make a great showing to put himself into a great spot in the NFL draft.


24-17 OSU


Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs Oregon

If LSU-Alabama is a game pitting the two best defenses in the country, the Rose Bowl has the two best offenses squaring off.  There will not be many stops in this game.  I don't see Oregon being able to shut down the Wisconsin running game and I don't see the questionable Wisconsin defense having the speed to keep up with the Oregon offense.  This game will come down to a big turnover or a special teams play like a blocked kick.

I have no idea who to pick in this game. I could see the Badgers imposing their will and their huge offensive line demoralizing the Ducks, but I can also see LaMichael James in the open field, a lot. 


45-42 Oregon 
 
Sugar Bowl
Michigan vs Virginia Tech


Obviously I'll have a lot more content on this game as it approaches, but you all know I'm picking Michigan in this game.  I'm not sure if it's homerism, but this appears to me to be one of the best matchups for the B1G.  While Virginia Tech has a good record, they have struggled whenever they faced a good team (twice this season) and have difficulties with mobile quarterbacks.

I reserve the right to change this prediction drastically.
31-21 Michigan


5-5

That's my predicted record for the B1G in bowl games.  I think that would be a pretty good result when I look at the matchups.  Maybe I am being a bit optimistic?

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Why Did I Read That Garbage?

I just read an article that really pissed me off.

I'm sure most of you saw the "controversy" in the Patriots win on Sunday in which Tom Brady threw an interception and then got into a sideline verbal altercation with his offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien.

If you missed it, here it is:



You can make out most of the words.  The interception was a huge play in the game and nearly cost the Patriots a victory.  It would have been a much smarter play for Tom to just throw the ball away, kick a chip shot field goal and go up two scores virtually clinching the victory.  Instead, Brady lofted a pass over the middle to the back of the endzone to a receiver who was being covered 1 on 1.  The defensive back made a great play and the war of words soon began on the sideline.

So this writer from Boston, Tony Massarotti, wrote an article claiming Brady's actions were indefensible and stating the case that Brady is not a team player and is somehow not a winner.  The whole premise of the article is laughable, but what really irks me is the blatant disregard for any context regarding the situation.

Here's some tidbits:
Sorry folks, but there is no defending Brady for the outburst directed at offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien on the sideline in the fourth quarter Sunday.
Really?  Huh, that's weird.  How about this defense?  Tom Brady is clearly the leader of the New England Patriots.  A huge burden of responsibility falls on him to carry young players and help them develop, especially receivers.  He told his receiver that he needed to go make a play.  He can do this even while knowing he shouldn't have made the throw, those things are mutually exclusive.  Tom Brady was simply doing what every great player (and especially quarterback) needs to do....lead.
Tom Brady vs. Tiquan Underwood. Now there’s a fair fight. One man has three Super Bowl rings and more than 39,000 career passing yards while the other has 10 career catches and not a single touchdown. Who’s Brady going to blame next, Stephen Gostkowski? Zoltan Mesko?
Are you making the point for me here, Tony?  Tom has earned the right to get on his young WR.  He has earned the right to make a mistake himself and still tell his guy he needs more from him.  Those three Super Bowl rings mean something and they didn't happen by accident.

Also, no one can question Space Emperor Zoltan Mesko.  He's the best punter in the biz. 
And here’s the real kicker: Everything about the throw was putrid. The decision. The execution. Brady carelessly tossed it up there as if he were feeding Manute Bol in the low post.
Then he blamed someone else.
There is a certain trust that develops between QB's and WR's.  On the throw, Brady showed great trust in his young guy and was let down.  Sure, he could have made a better decision, but the throw was not "putrid".  The throw was on the hands of his receiver who failed to go after the ball in any significant way.  The decision was bad.  The attempt at a catch was just as bad.  He's not passing the blame to someone else, but rather making sure his receiver knows he has responsibility. 
With that in mind, let’s give O’Brien some credit. If you read colleague Greg Bedard yesterday, you know Brady went to the sideline and gave an earful to both Underwood and receivers coach Chad O’Shea immediately after his blunder. To his credit, O’Brien came to the defense of both, responding with such fury that Brady retaliated with a crystal clear “No [expletive].’’
We only have pure speculation on what was said, but the coordinator coming to the defense of the WR in this case is just purely him being angry with Tom in the heat of the moment.  The distinction here is that Tom knew he made a boneheaded play.  Thus the "No Shit!".  He's a competitor and a leader demanding excellence out of everyone, that is always going to include himself.

Remember two years ago, when Brady drew the wrath of linebacker Ray Lewis after lobbying with officials for a roughing-the-passer call in a game against the Baltimore Ravens? Brady smugly applauded Sunday when Redskins linebacker London Fletcher was called for a personal foul, delivering a hit to Brady as he slid to the turf.
In all of those instances, the message is the same.
You can’t do that to me. I’m Tom Brady.
Funny, I think the message is "I want to win, we just got 15 yards and a first down".  

And finally he ends the article with this doozie.
It’s not about you.
It never was and it never is.
No shit, Tony.  It's about the team.  Every man is accountable. And that's the point Brady made to his coordinator.  No shit Bill, of course it was a bad decision.

Tom Brady is one of the greatest player's in NFL history.  He's won 3 Super Bowls and set countless records.  He's the best quarterback the Patriots have ever had by a country mile and yet writers in Boston think he's somehow a problem?  I hope the Patriots suffer through a Andre Ware, Rodney Pete, Scott Mitchell, Charlie Batch, Joey Harrington and Jon Kitna era after Brady retires.  Hell, we'll give you a young Matthew Stafford and 25 years of futility for your aging non-winner, egocentric, out of touch, hall of fame QB, deal?

Monday, December 12, 2011

Urban Terror

First PSU, now MSU.  Urban Meyer has received a verbal commitment from Se'Von Pittman.  Why dont you go after some UM commits?  What the hell is your deal?

Yes, I am sitting on a potato.

Meyer is quickly working his way to being the B1Gs most hated coach.  Brett better watch out, his throne is in jeopardy.

The B1G, A Basketball Powerhouse

There are still some nonconference games to play before the heart of the B1G season begins, but one thing is certain: the Big Ten is ridiculous.  A 12 team conference has 9 teams with legitimate tournament aspirations.  It's going to be a long and brutal season in the Big Ten this year.  Road wins are going to come scarcely and playing Penn State may be the only possible reprieve.

A totally preliminary ranking of the 12 teams. 

1.  Ohio State
Easy to be pumped playing for the Buckeyes these days.
Despite losing @Kansas (without Sullinger),  the Buckeyes are the class of the conference.    Deshaun Thomas may be the most improved player in the league as he has turned himself into a star.  The Buckeyes are loaded with high end talent.  Aaron Craft is guaranteed to piss me off for 3 more years. (I think he's a hack but he always gets away with his reaching!)  The Buckeyes look destined for a conference championship and a #1 seed.
 
2. Wisconsin
Bo Ryan is good at coaching basketball and especially defense.   Playing in Madison will be the toughest road venue outside of Columbus for yet another season.

3. Michigan
Trey Burke has done a great job replacing Darius Morris.  This may be a bit high for Michigan but since it's my squad I believe I'm allowed to be optimistic.

4. MSU
Deep and athletic, if they can hit outside shots they can play with anyone because of their effort on the boards.  Will be interesting to see how young players deal with the tough Big Ten schedule.

5. Indiana
I may have them ranked too low.  I'm a believer in Zeller and the talent in Bloomington is enough for this team to make some serious noise.  The win over Kentucky was announcement to the rest of the nation that IU is back.

6. Illinois
Hi, I'm tall
What was that I said about Deshaun Thomas?  Yeah, that was wrong.  Meyers Leonard has been the most improved player in the B1G this year.  This 7'1 behemoth averaged 2 pts and 1 rebound as a freshman last year.  He's Illinois best player now, averaging 13 pts 7 rebounds and 3 blocks.  He's the main reason Illinois will make the tournament again this season.

7. Purdue
Could the B1G's 7th place team have the league's best player?  Another team I probably have ranked too low.  They lost so much from last year's squad but Hummel's return is a huge boost, the biggest any one player makes on a roster this season.

Another note on Hummel, does anyone think he'll be a good pro or a pro at all?  I have no idea how his game will translate.

8. Northwestern
Is this finally the year they bust through and make the dance?  If you didn't know, NW has never made the NCAA tournament in their history.  Ouch. 

9. Minnesota
Speaking of ouch.  Minny would be much higher on this list if their best player, Trevor Mbakwe hadn't suffered a season ending injury.  They'll still be tough to beat in the barn.

10. Iowa
I thought their modest amount of success at the end of last season would carry over into this year, but this team doesn't look much better than last year's squad.

11. Nebraska
I know nothing about you, Cornhuskers.  You get ranked ahead of PSU by default.

12. PSU
Hey, it's basketball season so the media and all you Nittany Lion fans can forget about the Jerry Sandusky scandal and just enjoy Penn State on the hardwood.  Yeah, this was sarcasm.  Your team is bad and the Sandusky cloud isn't going anywhere for a long, long time.


Top team, bottom 3

I can't say I'm confident about anything on this list other than Ohio State being the best team in the conference and Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State making up the basement. 

I'm serious about this, teams 2-7 could all end up as the #2 team in the conference.  I have no idea how to rank the middle pack.  It's one big jumble that will definitely be hashed out over the course of the season.  It will be a fun year in the B1G, the best conference in college basketball.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Weekend Roundup

So there are all kinds of things to discuss today.  I will start off with Americas next great hope for the heavyweight title.  The story from MLive is here.  This is a pretty good story too as far as boxing stories go.  The guy Seth is going against is older, more seasoned and higher ranked.  The match will be on HBO.  I will be watching it, or at the very least, DVRing to watch later. 

Last night, MSU played at UM in hockey and lost.  From the write up it sounded like a hard fought game, lot of grit, some offensive flare from a sold out Yost Arena.  I will add that, my first division one collegiate hockey game was at Yost.  Pat took me to a UM versus Miami Ohio game. I think the student section ended a chant with pig fucker.  This year, UM started the year as the number one ranked team in the country.  However, after a number of tough losses, the Wolverines are no longer ranked.  The Spartans came into this game having won 8 of their last 11 and holding a number 14 ranking.  The game tonight moves to Munn Ice Arena where the 1986  national championship team will be honored.  I expect this to be another tight contest.   The MSU/UM hockey games are my favorite of the rivalry to attend - yes, over football.  I just love hockey.  I am gonna predict a 4-3 win for MSU, the opposite of last night game. Tune into the BTN tonight to watch.

What else is there?  O yea.  MSU plays at Gonzaga, tipoff is slated for 9 eastern, I think on ESPN.  This will be the Spartans first true road test.  After playing on an aircraft carrier, in MSG, and at Eastern (sorry Eagles).  Look for there to be plenty of coverage on Jud Hethcote who will be sitting between the two benches watching his two proteges, Tom Izzo and Mark Few lead their teams.  But do not be fooled by Jud's adoptive home of Spokane, he will be rooting for the Spartans the entire game.  Here is a good interview done by Joe Rexrode.  The key for MSU to win this game will be the perimeter defense.  Illinois was able to sneak out a win on their home court against the Zags by shooting over 50% from the floor.  I am not sure MSU will be able to do that, so defense will be key.  After the soft play of Payne in the last game, Izzo was quoted as saying that Elias Harris must be licking a big dog bone in anticipation of Payne coming in.   So how will perimeter D win?  Easy.  THe Zags will look to shoot the three by working an inside outside game.  Our bigs are going to have to grow up defensivly quick because we cannot afford to have our wings double down and leave the Bulldog shooters open.  Stopping dribble penetration, and keeping hands in the face of three point shooters will go a long way towards a Spartan victory.  If MSU wins this game, I think it could be a catalyst for B1G play.  I like our chances but we are going to need to shoot the ball as well as defend it.  This is a game where Wood needs to show up.  He is a great scorer that goes through both hot and cold spells for us.  If wood were to drive the lane and pick up some fouls on the Gonzaga bigs. MSU can start to exploit any substitutions the Bulldogs make.  With that, Payne and Nix need to be able to bang down low.  Get them the ball and please o please do not turn it over/concert your three foot chances.  Elias Harris is 6-7 and Robert Sacre is 7-0.  That is a lot of length and both are lean and mean.  Nix with his shorter stature will need to be able to use strength to create room for his shots.  While Payne measures up well with both these guys, his post moves are less refined than Nix's.  For Payne to have success he is going to need to use his athletic ability.  Avoid being boxed out, run the floor and leap over the Gonzaga bigs.  This will be a good game to watch, and I like our chances.  I think the three will start falling for us, and Appling will put in a superb defensive effort on the perimiter.  I will call it 76-71 MSU.  Please leave your prediction in the comments!

Go Green!


Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Playoffs?

Do the Lions make it?

Detroit sits at 7-5, solidly in the mix for a wildcard berth.  They are fighting for 2 spots with Chicago, Atlanta (both 7-5) and the NY Giants (6-6).  Chicago and Atlanta both hold tiebreakers over Detroit (which could play a huge role).

Remaining schedule for the Lions:

vs Minnesota
@ Oakland
vs San Diego
@ GB

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Cry Me a River

Michigan is in the Sugar Bowl.  It was announced Sunday night that they will be playing Virginia Tech.  I thought most people knew this was a foregone conclusion (Michigan in the Sugar) after they beat OSU?  Sure, some things could have happened to keep them out but it was always more likely than not they would be selected.

This post is not a shot at my fellow blogger as he hasn't been bitching to me (yet) but more generally the whining and complaining throughout the internet and elsewhere.  Michigan State fans are crying foul.  Of course, all of the arguments I read are delusional, misinformed and illogical.  Starting with Kirk Cousins:
"Michigan sat home tonight on the couch and watched us," the senior said shortly after the game's conclusion. "We played our hearts out — you saw it. I don't see how you get punished for playing and someone else gets to sit on the couch and get what they want.
"If this is the way the system is, I guess it's a broken system."
Michigan's Ryan VanBergen responded appropriately already...
"If he wants to go sit on a couch and watch us play in the Big Ten championship game, then he can do that," Van Bergen said. "They had an opportunity to go the Rose Bowl. It was sitting right in front of them for them to grab. They didn't seize the opportunity.
"I think that they'll do well in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck. Best wishes. We're going to the Sugar Bowl, and we're excited about it."
So where Kirk left off, Spartans have jumped in to carry the banner.  They are clearly cry babies, just like Cousins.

First, let me explain one little fact that most miss in this argument.  Other than the BCS National Championship game, the BCS is not designed to reward teams in any sort of playoff system.  It ranks teams.  It's sole purpose is to find the two best teams to pair up for a one game playoff to determine the national champion.  There are all sorts of problems with this system, but let's save that argument for another day.  This discussion is about the rest of the bowls, which are independent entities out for profit.  The BCS provides some parameters with which these bowls must select, and of course the bowls want to create the best matchups to make money and sell tickets.  So any argument about another team "deserving" a BCS bowl (other than the Championship game) are missing the point to begin with.  Teams are not selected solely on merit!  Everyone should know and expect this outcome every season.

Just for fun, let's assume for a second that BCS bowls were required to select teams solely on merit.  Who deserves to be in a BCS game more, Michigan or MSU?

MSU finished ranked 17th in the final BCS poll, Michigan finished 13th.  For a team to be selected for an at large bid, they must be ranked in the top 14.  So for you math majors, MSU is not even eligible for a BCS bid.

The next argument is that the BCS is a flawed system because Michigan is ranked ahead of MSU.  "The Spartans should not be punished for making their league's championship game!"  is the doozy Cousins first stated and the one I keep reading.

This is clearly illogical.  The Spartans moved down in the rankings because they lost a game.  Should the Big Ten championship game's results not factor into bowl seeding?  Or does a win count for the winning team but a loss doesn't count against the loser?  MSU earned the right to play in the Big Ten Championship, all they had to do to make the Rose Bowl was win the game.  They failed to do so and suffered the consequences of a loss. The game matters just like any other game throughout the season matters. 


"But Michigan State beat Michigan head-to-head!"

This is 100% true.  It also fails to encompass the entire season of each team.  Michigan finished 10-2, MSU 10-3.  Michigan pummeled Nebraska, who pummeled Sparty.  Michigan beat Notre Dame, who beat MSU.  The transitive property never means anything in sports, but the point is that teams play drastically different from week to week.  Head to head matchups tell us who the best team was on a given Saturday, but body of work should be included in determining who the best team is overall. 

So let's take a critical look at body of work.(color coded to show the advantage in each category)


First MSU:
10-3
5 wins over bowl teams
Opponent record = 82-75 (MSU played FCS Youngstown State who finished with a 6-5 record) (MSU also played Wisconsin twice, thus the 12 more total games played)
Record of opponents they beat = 55-66
Best Wins: Wisconsin, Michigan
Losses: @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, neutral site Wisconsin
Score vs Common Opponents: 153-138
Total Defense: 5th (273 yards per game)
Scoring Defense: 9th (17.46 ppg)
Total Offense: 60th (390 yards per game)
Scoring Offense: 39th (30.8 ppg)

For Michigan:
10-2
8 wins over bowl teams
Overall opponent record = 82-63
Record of opponents they beat = 66-54
Best Wins: Nebraska, Notre Dame
Losses: @MSU, @Iowa
Score vs Common Opponents 250-158
Total Defense: 18th (318 yards per game) 
Scoring Defense: 7th (17.17 ppg) 
Total Offense: 30th (435 yards per game)
Scoring Offense: 23rd (34.2 ppg)


Now I know my esteemed colleague says he doesn't like statistics, but I feel this is a pretty slam dunk case above that Michigan played a more difficult schedule and played better within that schedule than the Spartans.  The head to head matchup certainly matters, but the rest of the evidence matters as well. 

All this boils down to one simple little fact;
Michigan is more deserving of a BCS bid than the Spartans.


Keep eatin'

Monday, December 5, 2011

Donkey

That's what Brett Bielema is.  It is impossible to like that man. He is similar to Dantonio only he manages to be more pompous.  I was not sure that was possible but it is.  Don't get me wrong.  I think Mark is a fantastic coach, and he has the attitude MSU has been lacking for over a decade.  But man, I don't think Bielema's own mother likes him.  For every ounce of competitiveness and respect Dantonio shows other coaches (even the Dantonio/Hoke exchange appeared good spirited), Bielema has nothing but hate and a chip on his shoulder.  There is no way Iowa fans respect him, he is must be the most hated coach in the entire B1G.

Whoa, not sure where that came from.  Maybe it is in my sub-conscious since every week my girlfriend calls Brett Bielema a fat fuck (true story). 

I wont get into the game much.  Bitching about the reffing will not do me any good (you can read my twitter for a whole bunch of bitching though @ ztj521 ).  MSU was in a position to win the game, and missed a couple of assignments, boom, we lost. Instead wow what a team.

There is no doubt in my mind that MSU is the best team in the B1G this year.  We beat Wiscy once, should have beat them a second time. Beat UM. Lost to Nebraska, but finished better than them.  This defense is stellar (Worthy has been named an All-American).  The offense is potent.  There is not a better combo in MSU history than Cousins to Cunningham (well maybe not..). Our very young offensive line has gelled as the year went on and looks to be the strength of the offense next year.  Bell got better as the year went on. I am very proud of this Spartan team.  The Outback Bowl should  be good, facing a Georgia team that 10-3 in the SEC.  And if you are wondering why we didn't get the Capital One Bowl, it is because we've been there three times in four years. 

Let's beat Georgia.

MSU plays Gonzaga on Saturday in bball.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Rosey Rosie Rose'?

So he we are the B1G championship game and a chance for MSU to make it to the Rose Bowl.  The Grandaddy of them all!  Unfortunately MSU is having an in season rematch against Wisconsin.  A team we beat earlier in the season on yes, a hail mary.  However, what is often forgotten is that MSU was up 14 on Wisconsin in the fourth quarter.  So what does that say?  Mostly that Wisconsin is a good football team.  They can score, they have a good defense.  That's why they have a chance to go to their second straight Rose Bowl.  So what did I write for the first preview and how can these things work for us a second time around?  See below! (previous games three things in gray.)

MSU vs. Wisconsin


WHOA.  This game snuck up on me.  Nothing posted since the Michigan game.  Also, for those UM fans out there, Pat is at a wedding and will unable to post anything.  It helps that Michigan has a bye week... So, let us jump right into to East Lansing. 



I will start by saying that the reason that they have nets up on College Gameday is that in about 1997 I want to say, fans pelted Herbstreit with  beer cans.   GO STATE!

What are three things to watch out for?

1:  The play of Russel Wilson.

For MSU to win this game, they need to stop Wilson from making plays.  Russel is is both an upgrade and a down grade from Denard Robinson, he is a less dynamic runner but a better passer.  We need to get to Wilson early and get some hits on him.  Any way to rattle the quarterback and disrupt some timing on his passes will go a long way to winning this game.  On that note, Wilson is still very capable of running and going out on passes to catch the pass. 



This rings exactly true again.  In the first match up MSU was able to create some turnovers by picking Russell off.  I am not sure that those same poor throws that the Wisconsin QB made in the first game will happen here again.  After the rest of the season of preparation Wisconsin is looking good.  If you need any proof, look at the score of the Penn State game (though the PSU players may have had a lot on their minds). For Wisconsin to win this game they will need Wilson to be flawless.  Hell have to open up lanes for both himself and Ball to run in by passing effectively.   

2: Defensive line play.

This Wisconsin offensive line is just about a complete 180 from the Michigan offensive line.  These are big boys.  Wisconsin is best known for their massive offensive linemen and their ability to pound the football.  Without William Gholston, the MSU offensive line is going to need to step up their play.  We need to find ways get through their line and stop that initial push.  If Wisconsin is constantly getting a good 2 or 3 yards of push in the trenches it is going to be a long day for the Spartans.  I am looking for the defensive line to blitz more linebackers both on the edge and up the middle and keep the defensive backs in coverage to limit Wilsons ability to pass the ball on blitzes.



No clever segway here, mainly cause this is exaclty true again.  MSU's defensive line needs to have a MONSTER game.  Think Suh in the Big 12 championship game his senior year.  We will need that kind of game out of our whole line.  The biggest difference between last game and this game is that William Gholston will be back.  Gholston missed the last match up after feasting on some Wolverines for an entire game.  Well now it's Badger season - time to feed the beast.  Coupled with that is the fact that Wisconsin's starting center is questionable with a dislocated ankle (that sounds horrible feeling).  To win this match up our ends need to plug the lanes and keep Wilson from picking up easy yards on the edge.  Along with that, Worthy needs to occupy two blockers and allow our linebackers to make stops at the line.  If we win this game, Bullough will have a good game.   I see that being a major factor in how this game plays out, if the line can allow for Bullough and Allen to make plays before Wisconsin gains yards.  

3: Can we score some points?

This is a HUGE game for our offense.  The offense has been very much a lame duck. At times they have looked good, and other times have looked downright awful.  Wisconsin has been scoring at a clip of about 40 ppg.  Does the MSU offense need to match that?  No.  But we are going to need to get some points with touchdowns - not field goals.  Like the UM game, I expect Kirk Cousins to attack the edges in the passing game and after Keshawn Martins game last week, I see more plays aimed at him...DO NOT FUMBLE THE BALL!!!!!!!!!!   With that, it is pretty obvious that we need to be able to run the football and when MSU is unable to run the football, MSU gets stomped.  Edwin Baker looked like a man possessed last week.  Will he still have that speed, and will our offensive line still have that push?  I sure hope so.  If you cant get up for a game like this, you might as well stay home.  If Kirk can get the ball on the edges and open up some dump passes in the middle to the TE.  We will be very effective on offense. 




This is mostly true again, however, Bell is now our most productive back and it should stay that way this game.  Bell is the more physical back but he also has moves to use againse the linebackers - see any number of spins or leaps from the entire season.  Baker will be use more of a change of pace back with his speed to burn he could pick up some massive chunks of yards in limiated action.  However, the key to this game is the play of ole Kirk.  Kirk and Cunningham have been on fire the last 4 games and that will continue.  Short passes to to Mr. Catch everything himself will open up the running game.  On top of that, Keyshawn Martin is looking the best he has in over a year.  Mainly becauase he is now catching everything.  The speed is there, the hands are there and he is getting the ball his direction.  This extra threat will allow MSU to spread out the Wisconsin defense.  For our tight ends?  Well it will be the same as they have been all year, I belive Sims hand is still in a cast so do not expect him to play a whole lot but there will be chances for our very good receiving tight ends to make plays of 10 yards or more.  

This game is at night, in Spartan Stadium.  The place is going to be rocking.  I think this favors us a lot.  However, I think Wisconsin is legit.  They are big, their running back is fast, and the ability of Wilson to scramble adds another dimension to their offense.   As much as it pains me to type this I do not think MSU wins this one.  31-27 Wisconsin.  Prove me wrong State!! 

To win this game, MSU will have to play with zero turnovers.  This game will be tight throughout.  With defensive stops by MSU getting the crowd rowdy.  Wisconsin wont go away and MSU will need to hold them to under 150 yards rushing.  How do I see this ending?  34-31 MSU and a trip to our first Rose Bowl since I was 4.  


GO GREEN

Friday, December 2, 2011

Little late

but expect content tomorrow regarding the first B1G championship game.  I likely will not have much in the way of breakdown of MSU vs. Wiscy since they have already played.  But I would like to rehash that.  Uh, in the meantime?  GO GREEN. 


Wednesday, November 30, 2011

ACC/B1G Challenge

So here we are, another basketball season is in full swing.  MSU has been about what everyone expected compiling a 4-2 record with losses to UNC and Duke.  As a side note, MSU is the first team since NC State to play UNC and Duke as the first two games of the year.  I think that was sometime in the 70s, but don't quote me on that.  As of now the B1G sits with a 4-2 lead over the ACC in this years edition of the challenge.  What should we expect out of tonight's match up featuing MSU and Florida State?

First off expect a lot of offensive rebounding.  MSU currently rebounds their own misses at a rate of 35% while FSU is at 38%.  To go along with that, both teams love turning the ball over.  With both teams being over 10% of their possessions ending by losing the ball on possession. 

From there shooting will be a crucial.  FSU will run a lot of zone and force opponents to shoot a lot of three's.  In college, this is how upsets happen.  Unfortunately, MSU is awful at shooting the three ball at 23.8%  At lets be honest, there is one thing that MSU has been awful at for about the last 4 years it is shooting the three.  As a fan, I can only hope we score inside, or someone steps up and finally makes a three  ball. 

With that, both these teams are strong defensively and both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency stats (see kenpom

This is a short writeup and as the seasons goes on, I will get more indepth.  However, living in Chicago makes it hard to watch all the MSU games,  in the three I have seen (UNC, Duke UALR)  MSU has looked both good and bad. Off the bat it is easy to say Brandon Wood needs to step his game up, he is not at Valpo anymore.  He needs to score and shoot consistantly.  Along with that, Appling, has been very ineffective.  His best offense has been a charge.  If he can learn a pull up jumper or a tear drop, he could be deadly driving to the hoop.  For good notes,  Dawson has been unbelievable,  same with Nix and at times Payne.  I have not seen Kearney play one possession, and I imagine he wont play a lot all season. Similarly, Russell Byrd has not been able to find his stroke.  It looks pure in the air just isn't going through (please let his shot start falling).

So how can MSU win this?  Well if we can get back to what MSU is known for.  An up tempo game, pushing it out of bounds after rebounds and scoring in transition.  Of course the last time we were in the Final 4, we were hitting shots all year.  This years team has not been able to to that, so far.  This FSU team will be a great challenge with their length and athleticism.  A win would go a long way for MSU and will add a lot of confidence.   Also, Izzone, be loud.  The students mostly suck as football fans, and Izzo has called them out already this year for a lack of enthusiasm.  GET LOUD IZZONE.  In spite of the two teams defenses, I expect an uptempo game. I will call it 68-60 MSU. 

As it has been well stated before.  I am not much for stats in games.  They are nice to look at but when it comes to basketball, any team can get hot or any player can get cold.  Usually in basketball, the team with the best player on the floor wins.  This is especially true of college.  So in future writings you will hear me gripe a lot based on observations.  My observation that Durrell Summers was riding the struggle bus and looked off as far back as last years Maui Invitational almost got me kicked off the prestigious the only colors mainly because I will not back my observations up with any sort of stats.  By the end of the year, my game 2 observation was well established by the stat heads over there, and used as their own brilliant commentary.  You observe the game you see what is going on it is that simple.  That is how I like to watch basketball and that is how the game is played.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Something of Monkeys and Backs

Sweet joyous relief 

The euphoria I felt Saturday hadn't existed since Notre Dame 2006.  I was quite literally leaping into the air repeatedly, for just a moment in time I was a honorary member of the Grammatica family.

(Silly Grammaticas)


You just have to feel good about Michigan's seniors.  It's been discussed extensively on the interwebs but enduring three different head coaches (the 5th year guys) and the most futility in half a century and all the negativity swirling around the program would break greater men than I, but not this group of seniors.  They made a decision to stay together, to hold their team together and overcome it at all.  They didn't win a B1G title, but they exceeded all reasonable expectations and finally ripped that giant Ohio State gorilla from their backs. 

If Brady Hoke goes on to become an iconic figure in Michigan football history there will be a story written about this group of seniors and what they meant to Brady Hoke's program.  I cannot overstate the importance of that victory.

Of course, Ohio State needed to change the headlines so they have already announced Urban Meyer as their next head coach.  Urban is going to recruit extremely well, but you wonder if he'll be able to rebuild the wall that Tressel had built around Ohio.  I also wonder if any coach can live up to the expectations being laid at Urban's feet.  He is now the savior of the Buckeyes program and any struggles, even minor, will incite the rabid fan base.  If he was stressed out at Florida we can only imagine how he'll handle the fire in Columbus.

When I first starting hearing all the Urban to Ohio rumors I was not very thrilled at the prospect but after thinking it over, I think I like it.  I like seeing Ohio State struggle but nothing is better for the Big Ten and Michigan football than Ohio State and Michigan meeting as top 10 teams in epic clashes.  I can see some of those clashes happening in the next 5 years.

BCS

Here's Michigan's rooting guide for next week.


In the Big 12:
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
Texas over Baylor
Iowa State over KState

In the championship games:
LSU over Georgia
Virginia Tech over Clemson
UCLA over Oregon (ha)
MSU over Wisconsin
Southern Miss over Houston


The big keys are LSU big over Georgia as well as Oklahoma State over Oklahoma.  A MSU win boosts Michigan's strength of schedule and Wisconsin would surely fall behind Michigan in the polls but the result here shouldn't matter too much as either loser is likely to fall behind Michigan in the polls.  The only surefire way to prevent Michigan from making it into the BCS is Georgia beating LSU.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Four Letter Word

Three Things:

1. Limit Braxton Miller 

This guy terrifies me.  I don't envision OSU making long sustained drives in this game.  They are going to get some first downs but their lack of passing game is going to be a drive killer throughout the game.  Ohio State has a tough time creating big plays on offense but the one guy who can do it is Miller in the run game.  Michigan must limit his scrambles to short runs and prevent any big gainers.

2. Limit Turnovers

I know this is a key in every football game but I find it hard to find a scenario where Michigan loses this game unless they lose the turnover margin by at least a couple.  Denard needs to protect the football and take what the defense gives him.  This may be the best defense Michigan has faced the entire season so there will be very little margin for error.

3. Win On First Down

Ohio State may play action a couple times on first downs in this game but more likely expect them to simply line up and run the football.  If Michigan can keep these gains under three yards they are going to put the OSU offense into tough situations.  If Ohio is able to get four or five on first down they are going to have manageable situations all day long.   Watch the matchup in the trenches for a clue here.  Martin and Van Bergen should be fine but the other guys are going to need to step up their play against a big OSU offensive line.

By the same token, when Michigan is on offense they need to be productive on first down.  Denard is not going to be able to beat OSU in third and long situations.  Michigan has the ability to mix it up a little more on first down and also has a much better offense so they should be able to sustain more success on first down than the Buckeyes.

Prediction: 

This is Ohio State's season.  They are going to lay it all on the line but they have little play for other than pride.  Michigan has the pressure on it's shoulders in this game but they also have the better team and are playing with confidence.  I expect a low scoring game that Michigan salts away on the ground in a conservative second half. 

27-19 Michigan

Roundball, Defense and Other Things I'm Thankful For

It's the week of The Game and we're talking about basketball?  Yeah, I guess us Michigan fans have some things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

So I was subbing for a 4th grade class last week and they were making lists of things they were thankful for.  Most kids said cute things like "my mommy" or un-cute spoiled things like "my wii", (humor not lost on me) and some even talked with great perspective saying things like "food, because other people are starving".  Stealing a page out of their book, here's a list of ten things I'm most thankful for as a Michigan fan, in no particular order.

1. Competitive Basketball Team

Following the Chris Webber fallout, Michigan self imposed sanctioned its basketball program to death.  They also hired Tommy Amaker.  Amaker was a good man.  He recruited well, graduated players, did everything with class and within NCAA rules and was pretty much exactly what Michigan wanted out of their basketball program.  It was clean.  It was also terribly dormant as a national competitor.

John Beilein arrived with a resume of success everywhere (literally, he's coached at every single D1 school....well not literally but you know what I meant) He also arrived at the same time as facility upgrades galore.  New practice facility, Crisler renovations, etc.  All this has coincided with a couple of NCAA tournament runs and all of a sudden Michigna has a basketball program worth talking about again.  I like basketball so I'm a fan of this development.
 
2. Overachieving Freshman 

He's a point guard.  He's good.
This section could also be titled "Beilein's ability to find diamonds in the rough".  Here's a leetle story about Tim Hardawy Jr.  He came to Michigan's camp without an offer.  He was seen as a long jumpshooter who wasn't a great basketball player.  JB had a choice to make as scholarships were tight and Michigan was in some highly touted kids.  Hardaway was nowhere near the top 100 on any recruiting site.  He was a sleeper.  He earned his offer, committed soon thereafter and started rising in the rankings.  He could play and people were taking notice.  He's going to be a first round draft pick when he heads to the NBA, he's really awesome.  +1 for JB

This year's Tim Hardaway is Trey Burke.  After watching his highlights, the youtube videos of his strenuous workouts he put in every morning at 5:30am and then seeing his recruiting ranking, I was a little perplexed.  I mean, some teams are going to be getting really awesome players if they are 90 of them better than this kid, which was pretty much the consensus from all the services.  So Burke came in, earned the starting job, outplayed Joe Jackson of Memphis (widely considered one of the best PG's in college basketball) and has shown himself to be simply awesome.  +2 JB, thanks, I like you.

3. Greg Mattison

Man.  Love.
Man love. Bottom ten to top ten in every important defensive category with the same players. :)

4. Coaches with Job Security

It's nice heading into The Game with a galvanized fan base supporting Brady Hoke while Ohio has a lame duck coach, Urban rumors swirling and a 6-5 record.  Those proverbial tables, they've turned.  It feels good. 

5. Retina Burning Maize Jerseys

So we head out to dinner last night in Texas and there's a tv on in the bar showing a basketball game.  It was far away but there was no mistaking the blindingly bright maize jerseys as Michigan's.  I was able to mosey on over and check the score and see Michigan taking care of business against UCLA.  Seriously though, that color should not exist.  Normal maize is not fluorescent.

6. Little Bro

My big brother has told me he's proud of me, so I'll pass that along and let Michigan's little bro, the Sparties, know that we are secretly proud of you.  You've overcome the "Sparty No" to rise up and be at the top of the Big Ten for a couple of seasons.  We don't want you beating us, (seriously, cut that out) but you can beat OSU every year and we'll be proud of you.  Good luck in the Big Ten championship game little guy, we know you can do it!

7. Velcro

You need it if you want your shoelaces untied.

8. A Secondary

Seems like Michigan hasn't had one of these since I was in college.  My hairline hints at this being a long interval.  It's nice to have a defensive backfield again.

9. The Game

More on this tomorrow, but I wait so anxiously for football season for so long and now we only have one game left.  At least it's the biggest of the year against that school down south.  This is always the biggest game of the year and I'm glad they kept it as the season finale.  Every year will end with a bang.  Go Blue, Beat Ohio!

10. Packers @ Lions


For the first time in a long, long time, the Lions play on Thanksgiving in an extremely meaningful game.  This isn't even their first appearance on national television this season!  It's going to be a tough matchup against the undefeated Packers.  Speaking of the Pack, they are much more difficult to hate now with Favre gone.  Man I hated him.  Aaron Rodgers is so much more likeable.  I like his discount double check commercial.  I like his demeanor, I just kinda like him. Hopefully Suh and Vandenbosch sack him a lot today but don't hurt him too much.  If the Lions win today the hype will hit a fever pitch and the Lions will be in great shape for a playoff spot.  Thanks Lions for finally being competitive in the professional league with the most parity.  You were terrible for so many years that now it's so much more exciting when you are simply pretty good.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Turkey and Dreams


MMMMM turkey.  Sweet sweet turkey.  Hard to run a blog when your traveling to Boston.  Taking brewery tours, eating Indian food, and being about the laziest human possible.  Yet here I am.  Because I love all of the readers, Pat and I have cultivated. MSU has now played three lower level teams in  basketball and has gone 3-0 in those games.  Not much to say regarding that, these are teams we should beat 100% of the time, and did.  The next major opponent is Gonzaga at Gonzaga. MSU football is taking on Northwestern on Saturday, and I am sure Pat will have plenty regarding his team, apparently, they're playing The Ohio State University. 

But let us move on to the famous three things.

1. Avoiding the upset:

Can MSU avoid the upset?  After clinching a birth to the B1G championship game, this game is not as important as it could have been.  The players will need to remain strong mentally to avoid a let down.  What this game does present is the opportunity to win the Legends division outright.  Should MSU lose and UM win, UM will secure a share of the division, we cant have that. 

2.  Contain the offense:

That is, play good defense.  MSU will need to contain Northwestern, from the start of the game, MSU will need to keep Northwestern's offense off the field.  With Northwestern there are two very mobile quarterbacks in Persa and Colter.  Persa is very accomplished and looks mostly rehabbed from his achilles injury last year.  When throwing Persa will pass to Jeremy Ebert on most attempts.  Occasionally Persa will run the option, where he remains effective.  This is where Colter can be a huge threat.  Colter also plays wide receiver for the wildcats but from time to time, Colter will line up at quarterback.  When this happens, look for Colter to run the ball.  His passes come out a little duck like, but his speed running the ball is without question a real threat. This will be a good prep game headed into B1G championship.  Lots of blitzing from the linebackers and bull rushing with our ends will keep their quarterbacks on edge.  Right now our secondary is playing at a level that they will be able to keep the Northwestern wide receivers in check with little underneath help. 

3.  Keep the scoring going:

I fully expect MSU to score and score often against Northwestern.  After putting up 55 against the lowly Hoosiers, the MSU offense is firing on all cylinders.  A lot of that can be attributed to the offensive line.  I mentioned the offensive line in nearly every three things to start the year, but now they have gelled.  Fou Fonoti and Dan France both look strong right now and have improved dramatically as the season has gone on.  Travis Jackson looks as good as advertised and will be a four yeart starter for MSU at center, that is impressive.  As such, Kirk Cousins has had an impressive year, even against Nebraska, the offensive line played well.  Look for this to continue as the offense controls the ball on the ground.  Just like against Indiana, MSU should run the ball effectively while gashing Northwestern for big scoring plays. 

Prediction:  MSU wins this game.  Dantonio has already stated he is playing and preparing the players like nothing is different.  Dantonio has also stated he does not want to share the division with Wolverines.  Look for this one to be around 38-17.  About a three score victory is what I am expecting. 



Saturday, November 19, 2011

Epic Fail

I don't think I even need to write why.  Here is the story link


Good one Victoria's Secret. 

Friday, November 18, 2011

BUSY!



Whirlwind week that included being stuck in Atlanta for a night, jetlag, football banquets, interviews and subbing for a bunch of prick 7th graders


So I'm entering into the Tbone category of blogging effort.

3 Things:

1. Drob vs Tmart

The QB who plays the better game likely wins it. 

2. Mike Martin vs Errybody

After Tbone declared the Mike Martin hype dead after the UM-MSU game, he's gone out and dominated in three straight games. 

3. Pat vs Happiness

Optimism, true optimism is creeping in.  I called this game a free roll, that's still true.  Win or lose tomorrow this season will be defined as a success or a failure by next week's game.  However, this is still an important game as far as national perception is concerned.

Prediction:

Michigan's defense looked nearly dominant last week.  I'm a bit cynical, believing the performance was more about Illinois being terrible rather than Michigan being dominant.  We'll find out more tomorrow but my expectation is that both Burkhead and Martinez have good days on the ground attacking the edges of Michigan's D as the young DE's make mistakes in the option game.  I also think Nebraska's defense isn't anywhere near great.  Playing in the Big House, I think Michigan will move the ball throughout the game.  If they capitalize in the red zone and get off to a good start I think they'll win this game.  This was a game I pegged as a likely loss before the season so it's nice being a little more confident now.

31-28 Michigan

To Clinch Or Not To Clinch

Yup, that is the question.  That was about as lame as a Caddylack tweet.  So where are we? Well MSU has about a 30 point lead over Texas Southern.  The color commentator played for Indiana in 1976 that wen 32-0 and 63-1 in 1975 and 1976, that is ridiculous.  That squad was the last undefeated team.  On to the game though, Trice looks good.  As does Dawson and Nix, and Appling.  We look good, but were playing Texas Southern.  I did not preview this game because I figured we would crush them.  I likely wont preview a lot of the non B1G games, save for Gonzaga.  (Jud is a season ticket holder for the Zags)

This Saturday at 11 am central, the Michigan State Spartans take on the Indiana Hoosiers in our protected cross over rivalry game.  The battle for the Old Brass Spitoon. Currently, MSU leads the Series 40-12-1.  Not  bad. 

1: Controlling the clock.

MSU will looks to run a lot in this game.  Controlling the clock and working the Indiana defense.   Indiana's defense is not very stout and is prone to giving up big plays.  MSU should score on big plays, 25+ yards while simultaneously running the ball early and often.  Cunningham should have a big game, with long receptions for touchdowns. 

2:  Stop the Tre.

MSU will need to bottle up the Indiana quarterback Tre Robinson.  He is a more slender dual threat QB at 6-1 184.  However, he can dual threat.  MSU has shown great ability to bottle up these types of quarterbacks and there no reason to believe that wont continue.  With limited weapons, for the Hoosiers, look for MSU to leave receivers in solo coverage and attack Robinson all game.

3: Senior game!

Well, this is it.  MSU's seniors are graduating.  This Spartan senior class is the winningest class in school history.  Look for these guys to start the game, play well and get off the field so their backups can play.  As Spartan fans we should wildly supportive of this class, and if the student section is not sold out, you will see an op-ed column in the State News.

Call it 42-14 MSU for the reasons mentioned above.


(makes me want a dip)

Monday, November 14, 2011

Two for One

First off, I gotta say my Iowa MSU  prediction was pretty solid.  Though MSU jumped out to an early lead, 31-7, Iowa clawed its way back and made the final score a lot closer.  And yes, at a few points I was worried we might lose this one. I did not see that game scoring so many points.

The finer points:  Kirk Cousins got some sweet sweet redemption.  No turnovers, and touchdowns to boot.  Touchdowns  you say? Did you see the pass and catch from Kirk to BJ for their second td hookup?  That was an NFL cactch.  BJ is very good.  Also, helluva catch by Edwin Baker for the TD.   The running game got going again with over 150 yards.  And we held Coker to his lowest total of the year with 57 yards.  Our rush defense is very good.  Our pass defense is very solid.  More than that though, our defense makes stops when they need to.  This is an excellent unit. 


Part two is all basketball.  MSU lost and lost big to UNC.  However there were many high points.  First and foremost, MSU's ability to crash to boards was something I have not seen in since 2008!  We dominated the boards in that game.  Unfortunately, UNC dominated the scoring.  Along with that great surprise is Branden Dawson.  Dawson looked very good.  He showed great work on defense, outstanding work on the boards, had he knocked down some jumpers, it would have been a complete game. 

Moving forward, we have MSU playing Duke in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night.  Duke is currently ranked 6th in the country and look to be another great Duke team.  No surprise there.  However, MSU can win this game.  And it comes down the rebounding the ball even more.  For as much as MSU crashed the boards in the carrier classic, they need to do double that in MSG.  MSU is not a good field goal shooting team right now, so getting easy put backs will be necessary.  Byrd did not play very much in the Carrier Classic, but should get more minutes as the season wears on, this will help the FG%.  Also, Appling needs to stop with the offensive fouls.  I fully expect a Duke team to be stepping into the lanes and trying to get charge calls.  So fundamentally sound.  However, Izzo knows this, so look for Appling to continue to cut the lane, only this time dish it for the easy layup or the open jumper.  I also expect Wood to take more of a scorers role in this game.  We need it.  Without Wood scoring, this will be a long long season.  Outside of that, MSU will need to limit the outside scoring of Duke.   Should Mike Krzyzysksi get this win it will be the most victories in NCAA history.  If I know Izzo, he will want none of that record.  Look for MSU to win this game in a hard nosed game. (why couldnt this have been played in the midwest!!)  well call it 67-60 MSU. 

The story of MSU's season will be if they can hit shots, especially the three pointer.  Look for them to quiet that, a little bit, in this game. 

GO GREEN


Leaving on a Jet Plane

So I'm heading out of town for a few days and won't be posting.  I'm sure Tbone will hold down the fort well while I'm gone.

If for some reason Tbone lets you down and you need your football fix, I've got some reading for you to do.

Smart Football is a blog you should be reading regularly.  It's not as much opinion about football as it is a detailed breakdown of X's and O's, schemes and plays.  It's not strictly college football as it includes a lot of NFL.  Beware, you can lose many hours increasing your knowledge.   When reading Smart Football time can move at video game pace, which is at least 4x faster than real time.  I will vouch for Chris (the author) as really knowing his stuff.  He also really loves the aerial spread offenses, so you'll see a lot of focus on those plays.

-------------

Some big games in the B1G this week.  At 8-2, Michigan's game against Nebraska sort of feels like a freeroll.  Even if Michigan loses, a win over Ohio State will still cap off an excellent first season for coach Hoke and the Wolverines.  It's nice that this week's game against Nebraska is the most difficult game Michigan has remaining.  I'll have a lot more on the Nebraska game later this week, but it's nice to finally be able to say firmly that this is a much improved Michigan team over the past seasons and they are likely to be favored in both of the last two games.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

What Is This?

I think this was 2 years ago, but Mike Martin has been Michigan's most dominant player the last 3 weeks.

Michigan has now played 10 games this season. (though the NCAA is only counting 9 statistically because of the Western rainout)

I know Illinois has been struggling offensively, but after completely and utterly shutting down an opposing team's offense, we Michigan fans can't believe our eyes.  It was only last season that Michigan had it's Worst Defense Ever.  That's not exaggeration but the truth of the actual numbers.

The gory details; 2010 Defensive Stats:
(rank in parenthesis) 

Scoring D: 35.2 (108th)
Total yards: 451 (110th)

Compare that with 2011 through 10 games (9 games counted for Michigan):

Scoring D: 15.5 (5th)
Total yards: 322 (17th)

That is downright silly improvement.  I'm sure some stat junkie will do a comparison at the end of the year of how Michigan's statistical improvement on defense ranks against all-time best 1 season improvements.

It's nice to see a Michigan defense again.  The offense is still a work in progress with Denard still seeming so uncomfortable in Borges' hybrid O but heading into this season I never imagined the defense could carry Michigan to a victory and they did just that.

Even more impressive still for this defense is how it's mostly all the same players.  There are a few true freshman playing very well (Blake Countess, Desmond Morgan are starting) but usually true freshman in the lineup are a reason for concern.  With mostly the same players returning from last year, players that Spielman ridiculed on air last year for not being Michigan caliber, saying that Michigan cannot compete until they recruit some talent, those same players now make up one of the best defenses in the entire country.  Contrast that with the defense last year that allowed a Matt McGloin led Penn State to shred them on touchdown drives on every single possession.  I would even argue the statistics may not have shown truly how bad Michigan was at defense last year.  By midseason last year, while watching the games, if the offense failed to score on one single possession it felt as the though the game was lost. (and it usually was)  Now the offense can sputter up and down the field and the defense is going to give us a chance to win any and every game.

I'm not sure if this says more about Hoke and Mattison or Greg Robinson and RR....but at this point I'm simply relieved to be getting back to Michigan defense.

It wasn't the most beautiful 31-14 victory.  In fact, it probably should have been a much bigger margin if Michigan could capitalize in the red zone.  However, this is what it takes to win college football games on the road in November in the B1G.  It's difficult for offenses to execute perfectly all the time and a stout defense can take control and win a game on it's own.

Moving on to next week, if only Michigan and Nebraska would have taken care of their respective business last week against Iowa and Northwestern, this game may have been the game of the week.  As is, it appears this game will be played for a chance at an at large BCS bid but not a shot at the B1G championship game.  (Though a Nebraska victory would leave them rooting hard for NW in the season's final week)  The winner of this game will have a good chance of a 10-2 finish and a top 12 or so ranking.

Speaking of that championship game...it appears likely that it will be MSU in a rematch with Wisconsin.  Ohio State has no shot and I just don't see Penn State winning on the road in Madison.  If Michigan wins this weekend and MSU takes care of business against lowly Indiana in East Lansing, the Spartans are in. 

I'd be pretty happy with that result.  I think that's an entertaining game to watch in the Championship Game and I'd be happy to keep Penn State and Ohio State out.  I don't want their baggage being the story surrounding the game.  I know none of the current players had anything to do with the Penn State scandal, but I'm confident in saying all the coaches new had knowledge of the situation for a long time.  I'm rooting for the Nittany Lions to lose their remaining games. 

I think Wisconsin would be a solid favorite in the game but as MSU has already proven, they can beat the Badgers.  Tbone will probably get mad at me for jumping the gun a bit here but I think it's OK to make a projection as this matchup is now easily the most likely.

Oh, also, The Game is looking more and more winnable after the Buckeyes performances the last couple of weeks.  It won't be an easy victory, but Michigan has it's best shot at winning since 2006.  That's a horrible streak and if it ends this year, Hoke is going to ride a giant wave of momentum into the off-season.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Quick and dirty

Just how I like my three things.

1:  Cousins.

Kirk needs to have a good game.  This Iowa defense isnt as good as years past but still is very capable of causing turnovers.  Kirk needs to not play like he did last year.

2: Stopping the run.

MSU  needs to stop the Iowa running backs from doing that.  Running.  This will force Iowa to pass more.  That might not be a good thing because McNutt is a sick sick receiver. 

3: Score points.

Our offense has been a bit off track.  It certainly didn't look spectacular against Minnesota.  We need to score points, a close game here and we could very well lose.  To score points, I see MSU taking advantage of their tight ends more than in any other game with a lot of passes up the middle.  Sims has a broken wrist and is playing with a cast on.  I sure hope he doenst play a lot becuase it cannot be easy to catch a ball like that.  Linthicum is more than capable of catching the  ball.  Along with that.  MSU has been saying all week that they are gonna pound the ball.  Look for that too, but mostly to set up play action passes.  If we can break a couple runs early, were gonna score on a 40 yard bomb later.

Prediction:

Everyone that I read, so mostly MSU bloggers are calling for a close game.  That seems very logical.  But that is something that I lack.  We will go 27-17.  That sounds close but I think MSU is going to control this game.  Look for Jerel Worthy to be in beast mode.  Also, as mentioned above, I like the play action set up in this game.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Thrillinois

His name is Mercilus. Hopefully someone can block him.
Michigan plays Illinois in a battle of struggling squads.  Michigan is 1-2 in their last three and the Illini have dropped their previous three games.  The Big Ten says "wahoo to that, let's make it the 3:30 game!"

Three Things to Watch for on Saturday

1) Illinois offense, do they have any?

The Fighting Illini have been really struggling to move the ball this season.  To me, this is terrifying since they scored over 60 points against the Wolverines last season in the Big House.  Michigan's defense is clearly improved, but Illinois has had a bye week to work out some of their kinks and will probably also have some new wrinkles installed for Michigan.  After losing three straight, coming off a bye, and playing at home, Illinois is likely to give one of their best efforts of the season.


2) Can Denard break a few big runs?

Robinson, for whatever reason, hasn't run much in the previous few games.  I'm not sure if he's nicked up and suffering from some sort of injury that we don't know about or if it has been a coaching decision to have him run far less than he was in September.  I do see him not looking as explosive and decisive in the running game as he's looked in the past, but he's still the most dangerous weapon Michigan has on the ground and his yards per carry bear that out.


3) Turnover Battle

This could be somewhat of a defensive battle and in those games turnovers and special teams make the difference.  The offenses need to be aided by a short field or a defensive or special teams score. Since turnovers come with a giant variance, who knows who has the edge here.  Hopefully it goes to Michigan.

Prediction

Home field advantage is important.  Illinois is playing in their backs against the wall type situation.  They are also coached by Ron Zook.  Those first two things scare me, the third brings some comfort.

20 - 17 Illinois

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

When it Rains You Get Wet

The hits keep coming.  This is Pearl Jam in the Early 90's.. Too old of a reference?  This is Katie Perry now.  Seriously everyone of her songs is a hit.  Regardless, I have even more MSU news.  Gary Harris has given a verbal commitment to MSU for the class of 2012.  Wow. What a week for college basketball in the state of Michigan.

ESPN has Harris as a 5 star, 97 overall, #1 SG and #10 overall prospect.  The big thing about Gary is that he attacks the basket. Both my driving to the rim and taking his defender on a dribble and pop.   Gary will score many different ways from inside the arc there's no doubt about that. Along with inside the arc, Gary can score from the three.  He is a little more streaky from three point range but is known as a legit threat from three.  Gary is listed at 6-4 195 pounds.  To go with that frame, Gary is very long which helps his defense.  Harris is a Tenacious D-fender.  Gary is able to d up his man one on one and shut it down with his length and athleticism.  Harris is also a very good football player which helps ability on the basketball court (sounds exactly like the kind of player Izzo likes).  Every recruitng site states that Gary is an elite talent that gets better and better as he plays more.

I will personally add that this is the exact player Izzo needed to get.  Along with Dawson, for this currents class, Izzo is on a recruiting tear.  Players with great length and supreme athleticism are the direction the college game and slowly the NBA are headed.  Just look at Kevin Durant - he's the perfect example.  (Or look at UNC's entire roster)

With the rest of the class, Matt Costello, Kenny Kaminski, and Denzel Valentine Izzo has a top 3 class in the country for 2012. 

Michigan may well be the State of basketball for the country.

For an even better writeup on the rest of the class go here: 2012 class
For video of Gary Harris, go here: Video

Thank you The Only Colors and Jay of Michigan Prep Stars for being better bloggers than I.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

MSU vs. UNC

Well it is basketball season again.  Things should really spice up on this blog, or get way behind.  Of course we are playing on an aircraft carrier and at madison square garden against two top ten teams.  UNC is ranked #1.  Why cant we play one of these in the Yooper Dome - get a little home crowd advantage one time?



As mentioned, UNC comes in pre ranked #1 in the country.  With good reason.  Pretty much everyone from last year has returned.  This UNC team will run the floor with anyone in the country and use their length to defend, dunk and stymie opponents.    I am not looking forward to this game. I think UNC is gonna win by an easy 15.  Should not be close at any point except before tip off.  So how can MSU win this game?

The first thing we need to do is knock down three pointers.  This was something we were basically unable to do last year.  Literally.  Now Russel Byrd is actually playing and shooting at a healthy clip (for preseason).  We will need his ability to shoot it to keep us in this game.  With that,  new comer Brandon Wood lit up UNC in years past.   He is known as a scorer from the two/one guard and though he has not shown that at all in the preseason, his scoring ability, and ability to get to the rack can keep us in this game.  Along that same line, Keith Appling needs to be what he was in high school.  A nasty nasty scorer. Keith, get to the rim please,  when they collapse on you pass the ball and let our forwards shoot 12 footers all day.  I don't care if we lose by clanking 12 footers.  I will care if we lose by clanking quick threes and wasting possessions.  Finally and this is likely the most important way to win.  Travis Trice needs to have the best game hes had so far in his life.  Trice committed to MSU just days before five star all world recruit Brandon Dawson did.  Trice is our back up point guard and will get a lot of burn in this game.  We need him to have zero turnovers.  Yikes. 

Things to watch for.  The battle between Barnes of UNC and Dawson of MSU.  Dawson will see Barnes all game (with plenty of help D).  If Dawson can play well here, grab some boards of Barnes, and get his points, that will bode well.  Also, look for Nix to  be banging down low.  Payne is getting the start, but Derrick Nix looks like an absolute beast this year and has added a lot to his post game


(HOLY CRAP)

Outside of that I dont have a lot else to say since I havnt seen a single preseason game.  But here are a look at the Jeresey's we will be wearing,  the back will say USA instead of the players names.  UNC's are identical but they are Carolina Blue where ours have the gray.

 (not too bad)

Like I said, I don't predict MSU to win this game based on all the skill UNC has.  However, it would be nice to see some growth and see the skill our young young team has.