Three Things:
1. Limit Braxton Miller
This guy terrifies me. I don't envision OSU making long sustained drives in this game. They are going to get some first downs but their lack of passing game is going to be a drive killer throughout the game. Ohio State has a tough time creating big plays on offense but the one guy who can do it is Miller in the run game. Michigan must limit his scrambles to short runs and prevent any big gainers.
2. Limit Turnovers
I know this is a key in every football game but I find it hard to find a scenario where Michigan loses this game unless they lose the turnover margin by at least a couple. Denard needs to protect the football and take what the defense gives him. This may be the best defense Michigan has faced the entire season so there will be very little margin for error.
3. Win On First Down
Ohio State may play action a couple times on first downs in this game but more likely expect them to simply line up and run the football. If Michigan can keep these gains under three yards they are going to put the OSU offense into tough situations. If Ohio is able to get four or five on first down they are going to have manageable situations all day long. Watch the matchup in the trenches for a clue here. Martin and Van Bergen should be fine but the other guys are going to need to step up their play against a big OSU offensive line.
By the same token, when Michigan is on offense they need to be productive on first down. Denard is not going to be able to beat OSU in third and long situations. Michigan has the ability to mix it up a little more on first down and also has a much better offense so they should be able to sustain more success on first down than the Buckeyes.
Prediction:
This is Ohio State's season. They are going to lay it all on the line but they have little play for other than pride. Michigan has the pressure on it's shoulders in this game but they also have the better team and are playing with confidence. I expect a low scoring game that Michigan salts away on the ground in a conservative second half.
27-19 Michigan
I like OSU in this game if only to salvage their season. I think the first few drives for both teams will be telling. If um gets up like 14-0 game over. But if OSU can score early. It will be a very entertaining game. The um crowd should be rabid.
ReplyDeleteSo I was pretty much wrong in my entire prediction. OSU threw on first down constantly. Braxton Miller was dangerous (I got that one right) and the game was a shootout. Feels so good to beat the Buckeyes. Wow.
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