And to be fully honest, I am not prepared. I have been able to catch a handful of MSU games, and did manage to see the last 5 minutes of the Indiana Kentucky game. But man am I way off on being able to have any sort of analysis, especially when it comes to Indiana. When watching MSU, there are three things that are evident.
1: Draymond is the key.
Everything seems to flow through Draymond. Green is the 100% leader of this team. His game on the court really controls the tempo for the entire team. If Draymond can knock down jumpers, were gonna beat almost everyvody. If Green is snagging boards, then were pushing it on the break. It will be intersting to see who guards Zeller. Green is probably the best defensively to guard big men, but that matchup is terrible for us. So is Nix or Payne though. That will be an interesting matcup. The MSU front court versus Zeller.
2: 4 and 5 play.
So far this year, our 4 and 5 spots have been both up and down. Depending on the lineup there is any number of people that play the two big spots, Payne, Nix, Green, Dawson, Gauna. At time, any one of those players has looked really good (well, Green has looked good most of the year). I think right now, the continual development of Payne is necessary. Payne has all the tools to be a monster. But it seems that his body cant keep up with his athleticism. This both limits him minutes wise due to conditioning, and moves wise due to coordination. It looks like at times he surprises himself with his jumping or quick moves. With that, Joe Rexrode has stated many times that in practices and scrimmages, Payne rains it from three. That has yet to be seen in games. Nix has been a serious positive. His free throw % is only at 54% but it seems that he is confident as ever when shooting the ball from the stripe. In the post, Nix is a load. He has good moves, lots of up and unders, and great vision to get the ball to teammates. For now, I like the idea of Zeller guarding Nix. I think Nix's size could get Zeller into foul trouble if utilizied correctly IE, ball fakes and attacking the rim.
3: We will need outside scoring.
This is pretty much a no brainier for almost every college basketball team, but especially true for MSU the last 4 years. Wood has been a welcome relief for MSU when it comes to shooting over the last 5 games, hovering at about 50%, I am not sure what his eFG% is over that span (that's about the only worthwhile tempo stat). Appling has shown the ability to shoot the three but his best game is leading a fast break. He is no Lucas in the half court but has the ability to be a better finisher on fast breaks. If Appling shoot it only when he needs to and build confidence in his game on the defensive end, that will bold well. Travis Trice is shooting over 50% the last 6 games from three. To me, Trice has been the most impressive player so far this year. Trice's ability to stay hot will keep us in this game.
Prediction:
Based on that last sentence, you can probably see where I am going with this prediction. While we are home, the students are away and I believer the Izzo Alumni will be in attendance. This probably wont be much worse than what the student section has shown so far this year, but still, students are students, who knows what they would pull. This looks to be a great match up for MSU against what might be the second best B1G team. I see Indiana sneaking this one out in a hotly contested game, and free throws will matter 77-72 IU. Prove me wrong State.
(first post in a while, I need to get back into things)
I think Payne can do a good job on Zeller. I agree his offenseive skills are still a work in progress, but he has been pretty solid on defense. He's getting over a block per game and only playing 18 minutes. He has the length to really bother Zeller. But obviously other guys are gonna have to spend time on him.
ReplyDeleteGreen seems like he is getting comfortable in his role on offense. He's the team's best player, and I think early in the season he was pressing to try and create offensively when his teammates were struggling to make shots. He's at his best when he is taking what the defense gives him. If they put a small forward on him he needs to work more down low. Even though he's not that much taller than typical 3 guys, he's a lot stronger and a lot more comfortable than most guys in the post. A bigger guy and he can get out on the perimeter. I also like them running pick and roll with him or getting him the ball in the high post. He can be a good facilitator, but he should not be "running the point" on the perimeter that often. He's still not as good a ball handler as Appling, Wood, Trice, etc.
Dawson has been much better the last 3 or 4 games. He hurt his knee in that Carolina game and it seemed to hurt his development. Hopefully he is over that. He can be another guy who like green can punish other team's 3's on the boards. His offensive skills are also raw, but he is a hell of an athlete and very strong for a Freshman.
I actually like our chances at Home. I was skeptical of Indiana until the Kentucky game. That was obviously a huge game. But Indiana has only played 1 real road game @NC State, who is pretty good, but not as good as MSU. I think we protect our home court and get a big early conference win.
I have a little downtime this week so I might try and add some conference preview type thoughts in the comments. No promises though.