Well this is it, one more game to get bowl eligible. Some players on MSU were talking about national championship gam before the season started. Now were talking about the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. That sounds more tasty than fun to play. But the game itself isnt what this team needs as much as it needs the bowl practices. We are still a young team and as many players that can get reps as possible is a good thing (that was a clunky sentence).
OFFENSE: There are a few things that the offense needs to show. After last week this team needs to show that it can score in the redzone (and in general hang on to the ball). The Minnesota defense is less than stellar so there should be plenty of opportunity to move the ball around within the 20. Along with that, the MSU passing game need to keep taking steps forward. This does not mean that Maxwell needs to drop back 50 times, if he is, that will mean the score is close. Instead it means that the passes need to completed, they need to come on tough catches, maybe a long one or two. One more point is getting the run game going. MSU needs to control the clock and there is no better way to do that than running the ball and getting first downs. With the Gophers giving up over 340 yards per game, MSU should have plenty of opportunity to move the ball
DEFENSE: I have heard rumblings on MSU Rivals that Gholston is staying for his senior year. This should be a good thing as Gholston needs to get his stock higher. Every game he plays in he needs to play like his life depends on it. The Gophers are without their starting quarterback Gray and recently lost the top wide receiver. AJ Barker recently left the team citing verbal abuse from coach Jerry Kill. This is a huge blow for the Gophers. It also allows the MSU defense to focus in on fewer people. Look for the MSU defense to attack attack and attack. MSU will allow their cornerbacks to be one on one deep to make the young Minnesota QB beat them deep. If he cant make the throws, this game will get ugly early. Look for a lot of push from the interior defense line as the gopher pass game is disrupted. Do not expect many rushes up the middle for large gains. This will have to be an outside edge attack for the Gophers where Allen and Jones will be there to eat.
PREDICTION: At a lovely Minnesota stadium on a cold but sunny day, the Spartans will come to town and do what they need to to get bowl eligible. With that, I think MSU will put up a good game offensively call it 31-14 MSU
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
Northwestern Recap
This won't be much of a recap. After the loss I was pretty shocked. There is not a lot to say at this point. We have lost 7 games by 4 points or less. Outside of that, what else can you say? Some fans are calling for Roushar to be fired. These people are morons. Some fans think that we should bench Maxwell and get Cook out there. These people are bigger morons. If MSU makes a hand full of field goals, we have a couple extra wins. No one is yelling for MSU to cut the kicker. On top of that, the offense has looked pretty solid recently especially in the second half of the Northwestern game. MSU averaged about 4.5 yards per play in this game. However they had 5 turnovers. You won't win many games with 5 turnovers. Right now, I cannot pick MSU to be beat Minnesota, regardless of what the Vegas line is. Coach D has spoke countless times this season about being resilient. I guess we will see what happens.
I had grand plans to write a full recap but I just can't, this is all you get.
So how about those Terrapins?
I had grand plans to write a full recap but I just can't, this is all you get.
So how about those Terrapins?
Saturday, November 17, 2012
MSU v. Northwestern
So I have to work today from 10-7. I am going to miss basically every college football game. Thank god for DVR. Goin to make this short and sweet. I will have a full on recap tomorrow after the game to make up for the lack of game preview.
OFFENSE: I like the bye week. Good things are going to happen. More reps for the offensive line, more reps for the throws, more time to add a wrinkle or two. Expect MSU to have a balanced offense that uses quick pass plays to gash the Wildcat defense for big gains. This has the feeling of a day for Sims and Fowler.
DEFENSE: The MSU defense has to stop multiple quarterbacks that play two different offensive style with Colter using his legs and his arms and Siemian is more of a pocket passer. With those two quarterbacks is Venric Mark a speedy back that gets the corner and gets the ball upfield. This will hopefully be a case where their speed is used against them and fumbles occur on contact. The MSU defense will need those turnovers to slow and put doubt into this offense.
PREDICTION: Who doesn't like to go bowling? I fully expect MSU to come out fired up, and score some points early. For about half of a game we will see how good this offense can be and that will be enough to win it. 31-21 MSU. Time to go to work.
OFFENSE: I like the bye week. Good things are going to happen. More reps for the offensive line, more reps for the throws, more time to add a wrinkle or two. Expect MSU to have a balanced offense that uses quick pass plays to gash the Wildcat defense for big gains. This has the feeling of a day for Sims and Fowler.
DEFENSE: The MSU defense has to stop multiple quarterbacks that play two different offensive style with Colter using his legs and his arms and Siemian is more of a pocket passer. With those two quarterbacks is Venric Mark a speedy back that gets the corner and gets the ball upfield. This will hopefully be a case where their speed is used against them and fumbles occur on contact. The MSU defense will need those turnovers to slow and put doubt into this offense.
PREDICTION: Who doesn't like to go bowling? I fully expect MSU to come out fired up, and score some points early. For about half of a game we will see how good this offense can be and that will be enough to win it. 31-21 MSU. Time to go to work.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Rock Chalk Neglect the Blog.
So i have not posted since last week. Literally a week. I have no idea where Pat is. He might be dead. He might be in Cambodia. No clue. But that's ok, because I am here, and I am here to preview this Kansas game.
Tomorrow, MSU takes on Kansas. The Jayhawks boast a frontcourt that features a 7 footer and a freshman power forward that is 6-8. I have a feeling both can score more readily in the post than either Payne or Nix. However, that does not fully matter because that is not exactly how the SPartans will score in this game. MSU is going to need to run in this game - get the easy transition points. Kansas is a team that will defend well both down-low and extended out to the perimeter. Because of this, the Spartans need to limit the amount of turnovers they have in this game. Nix had 4 turnovers in the game against UConn. Two of the turnovers I remember; Nix got the ball on a rebound and then brought the ball down-low where a guard ripped the ball out. Just keep that ball up high and get a shot up. Now that the halfcourt offense is ran through Appling, his ability to set the tempo will critical. Appling should be guarding Elijah Johnson. Johnson is a senior who lead his team in three pointers made last year. Along with that, he has a great leaping ability and a quick first step. Keith needs to not get tired defensively so he can do his own damage on the first offensive side of the ball. Another factor surrounding Keith and how he can lead MSU to victory is that Travis Trice will likely not be playing in this game. Trice suffered a concussion in Germany and is doubtful against Kansas.
It is time for Valentine and Kearney to become men.
What matters most in this game is how MSU reacts to the travel time. Coming off that prime-time game and then coming into another prime-time game can be exhausting, let alone traveling halfway around the world to do it.
So how do I see this game going? Well it depends on how it starts. Can MSU play a complete game, score points early? Sure they can. Will they? That certainly is not something that the Spartans have done in the past. Kansas lost two players to the NBA but returns three seniors. They did not exactly run away with the game against SE Missouri State which leads me to believe that their offense is struggling right now. I like MSU in this game after putting together great team defense. 70-62 MSU (I can also see this going the other way, ugh)
Tomorrow, MSU takes on Kansas. The Jayhawks boast a frontcourt that features a 7 footer and a freshman power forward that is 6-8. I have a feeling both can score more readily in the post than either Payne or Nix. However, that does not fully matter because that is not exactly how the SPartans will score in this game. MSU is going to need to run in this game - get the easy transition points. Kansas is a team that will defend well both down-low and extended out to the perimeter. Because of this, the Spartans need to limit the amount of turnovers they have in this game. Nix had 4 turnovers in the game against UConn. Two of the turnovers I remember; Nix got the ball on a rebound and then brought the ball down-low where a guard ripped the ball out. Just keep that ball up high and get a shot up. Now that the halfcourt offense is ran through Appling, his ability to set the tempo will critical. Appling should be guarding Elijah Johnson. Johnson is a senior who lead his team in three pointers made last year. Along with that, he has a great leaping ability and a quick first step. Keith needs to not get tired defensively so he can do his own damage on the first offensive side of the ball. Another factor surrounding Keith and how he can lead MSU to victory is that Travis Trice will likely not be playing in this game. Trice suffered a concussion in Germany and is doubtful against Kansas.
It is time for Valentine and Kearney to become men.
What matters most in this game is how MSU reacts to the travel time. Coming off that prime-time game and then coming into another prime-time game can be exhausting, let alone traveling halfway around the world to do it.
So how do I see this game going? Well it depends on how it starts. Can MSU play a complete game, score points early? Sure they can. Will they? That certainly is not something that the Spartans have done in the past. Kansas lost two players to the NBA but returns three seniors. They did not exactly run away with the game against SE Missouri State which leads me to believe that their offense is struggling right now. I like MSU in this game after putting together great team defense. 70-62 MSU (I can also see this going the other way, ugh)
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Overcast Saturday
I will admit, I only watched one college football game this past weekend. It was the game I was at, MSU v. Nebraska. I caught about half of the Alabama LSU game before falling asleep at 11:30 This is what happens when you start a bar crawl the night before at 3:30 pm at The Peanut Barrel before moving onto The Riv and then PT's. Thank god it wasnt a noon kickoff.
-In the MSU, there were some plays left on the board. I say go for it on fourth down and two yards to go in the fourth quarter. But I also think at this point in the season we should stop punting the ball and ALWAYS go for it. Screw it. Along with that, one of the worst calls I have seen in sports was made when the game was still very much in doubt. Pass interference when there was no contact. Some MSU bloggers are saying we should not blame the refs because MSU did not make stops when they needed (read more here, here and here) but that just does not make sense. MSU is up 3 with under a minute. Nebraska IS in field goal range but by no means and easy shot on the road and with that cold. Let's assume for a second that no PI was called. Now Nebraska is kicking a field goal. Do they make it? I don't know. Do they make it and then win in Overtime? I don't know. But what I do know is that when you get the ball at the 5 yard line, your chances of both making a field goal or scoring a touchdown grow immensely. Nebraska averaged about 5 yards per carry in this game, that's one carry to get into the endzone from the five. If you say the refs did not cost us that game you are a buffoon. In no way are we entitled to win. But if you are leading in a game with under a minute to play and the refs make a call that was described by 'media in the press box, media who cover MSU and Nebraska. Also, the ESPN announcers. And the ESPN anchor who later referred to the call as “brutal.” And the Big Ten Network analysts. And former NFL vice president of officiating Mike Periera, who made it clear he thought the call was bad.' (joe rexrode mailbag here) Then the refs lost that game for you. At best, Nebraska did not win it. I will side with Tom Izzo on this
Onto some images!
-In the MSU, there were some plays left on the board. I say go for it on fourth down and two yards to go in the fourth quarter. But I also think at this point in the season we should stop punting the ball and ALWAYS go for it. Screw it. Along with that, one of the worst calls I have seen in sports was made when the game was still very much in doubt. Pass interference when there was no contact. Some MSU bloggers are saying we should not blame the refs because MSU did not make stops when they needed (read more here, here and here) but that just does not make sense. MSU is up 3 with under a minute. Nebraska IS in field goal range but by no means and easy shot on the road and with that cold. Let's assume for a second that no PI was called. Now Nebraska is kicking a field goal. Do they make it? I don't know. Do they make it and then win in Overtime? I don't know. But what I do know is that when you get the ball at the 5 yard line, your chances of both making a field goal or scoring a touchdown grow immensely. Nebraska averaged about 5 yards per carry in this game, that's one carry to get into the endzone from the five. If you say the refs did not cost us that game you are a buffoon. In no way are we entitled to win. But if you are leading in a game with under a minute to play and the refs make a call that was described by 'media in the press box, media who cover MSU and Nebraska. Also, the ESPN announcers. And the ESPN anchor who later referred to the call as “brutal.” And the Big Ten Network analysts. And former NFL vice president of officiating Mike Periera, who made it clear he thought the call was bad.' (joe rexrode mailbag here) Then the refs lost that game for you. At best, Nebraska did not win it. I will side with Tom Izzo on this
Onto some images!
(something old and something new. the art museum is really impressive)
(an overcast red cedar river)
(from a distance)
(some band)
(they looked a little too happy)
(there was about 40 minutes straight of kids getting pictures with Sparty)
(ban practice, was really fun and cool to watch. ban parents are pretty mental. that has to be next reality tv show)
(SPARTY)
(the man on the right, he came to party. anyone see him wandering around before?)
(about to start!)
(i maintain we have some of the worst/best students in the country, they are little brothers)
Finally I have this video, an unsteady shot of the band marching in. EVERYONE of them had on gruff sparty faces, that was pretty cool.
Content
Sorry about the lack of stuff this weekend. I was at the MSU game and am trying to organize the pictures I took. I will have a write up tonight.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Basketball. That is all.
(Ed Note, this was mostly done by pat, I have added my 2 cents in italics.)
After each earning a share of the B1G title last season, Michigan and Michigan state enter the basketball season with high expectations. The Spartans lose the B1G MVP, All-Everything Draymond Green, Austin Thorton, Brandon Wood, Anthony Ianni while the Wolverines will need to replace the leadership and outside shooting of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass. The only other departure for the Wolverines is the transfer of Evan Smotcryz.
Both teams add excellent recruiting classes to their squads in 2012-13. Michigan adds big time recruits Glenn (Tre) Robinson III (Indeed, that's Big Dog's kid) as well as Mitch McGary. Coming to Ann Arbor along with them will be Nik Stauskas, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht. MSU adds super recruit Gary Harris as well as...Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costelo and Denzel Valentine.
Let's compare each position between the Spartans and the Wolverines. These comparisons require some guesswork because lineups and rotations are difficult to determine before the season. For Michigan, I'm working on the assumption that JB will keep his 4 shooters/1 big offense humming along though word out of practice is that they have been implementing some "big" lineup with some combination of Morgan/Horford/McGary at the 4/5 and Burke/Hardway/Robinson at the 1/2/3. However, I still think they will revert to old habits and Glenn Robinson III will end up with the majority of minutes at power forward and Hardaway will remain at the 3 (where he has played his entire Michigan career).
PG: Keith Appling/Travis Trice vs Trey Burke/Spike Albrecht
Michigan State returns Keith Appling at the PG position. Keith was having a great season early on last year but seemed to really wear down as the season trudged on. Adding some backcourt help should allow Appling to stay fresher this season. (I assume) he will be backed up by sophomore Travis Trice. Trice earned a lot of playing time last season and should be a better than average backup PG. Trice might be a better point than Appling. While Appling is a more dynamic player, if that makes sense. However, what trice has and that Appling does not, is the ability to shoot the three. Trice netted 40.5% last year while Appling netted 25% (down from 41% his frosh year.) I think Trice is going to have a fantastic year as a back up.
Michigan returns Trey Burke, the co B1G freshman of the year (along with Tyler Zeller) and a guy who was maybe the best PG in the league a season ago. He will need to play heavy minutes this year as he was mostly backed up by Stu Douglass last season. Incoming freshman Spike Albrecht is a pure PG, that is to say he's short and looks to pass more than he looks to score. If Spike can defend B1G PG's he will spell Burke for 5-10 minutes per game. If Spike isn't up to the challenge the Wolverines will rely even more heavily on Burke and may have to turn to freshman guards Caris Levert or Nik Stauskas (though both should be SG/SF type players)
The Wolverines have the edge here as Burke outplayed Appling throughout the season last year. Burke is probably on the short list of players to watch for in the race for B1G POTY in 2012-13 (along with the aforementioned Zeller) But don't sleep on Appling, he's a high end talent and made some significant strides between his freshman and sophomore years. Another step forward and he puts himself in the same category as Burke as one of the best PG's in the country.
Edge: Michigan
SG: Gary Harris/Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd vs Nik Stauskas/Caris Levert/Matt Vogrich
Harris is MSU's prized true freshman and should be an impact player immediately. He'll be the best SG MSU has seen in a long time. By all accounts he is ready to play immediately and should have no problem being a difference maker. (After watching the exhibtion game, Harris appeared to have the go ahead to shoot threes. Which is fine because he made a few. It would make my day if he was a super freshman. I have no idea what to expect but he was a highly coveted recruit and will start as a true frosh. Byrd will also get PT as shooting guard. His stroke was off in the first exhibition game. But it loks really good coming out. Any sort of consistent threat from three for this MSU team (and really all basketball teams) will make them nearly impossible to guard. This year, Denzel Valentine should see most of his time at SG. He is a tall player known for his play making ability. He is the teams future point. He had some boneheaded plays in the exhibition, but looked like he belonged as well. For Michigan here I have a 3 way battle between two true freshman and a 4th year senior. Vogrich might get the start early on in the season as Beilein turns to his experience, perimeter shooting and defensive hustle. I expect him to give way to Stauskas at some point. I'm massively high on the canadian prospect as I think he'll be Jon Diebler 2.0. He can simply shoot the basketball. Levert has come in for a lot of praise throughout the preseason and could be a guy who surprises with athleticism on the wing.
Despite how high I am on Stauskas I truly believe Gary Harris is an NBA player within 2 years. While most of the talent here for both teams will be true freshman I believe MSU has the edge at the top with the best player among all the SG's on both teams.
Edge: MSU
SF: Brenden Dawson/Brandon Kearney/ Russell Byrd vs Tim Hardaway Jr/Glenn Robinson III
Dawson was really coming into his own late in the season before suffering an injury. He returns as MSU's go to wing player. He'll likely see minutes at the 4 as well. Along with that Dawson should lead the team in scoring. I would not be surprised if it is over 20 points per game. He is wildly athletic around the court and his ability so snatch up rebounds will get him a lot of cheap buckets. If he happens to develop a 15 footer, look out. Kearney will play mostly as a defensive specialist. He still is exceptionally lanky. Kearney could score in high school and that did not show last year. Brandon may have the go ahead to start slashing to the hoop. That would go a long way towards helping the sub team. As previously mentioned, Bryd should see some PT here as well. Tim Hardaway enters his Jr season (see what I did there?) after having a bit of a Sophomore slump last year. Hardaway's efficiency really decreased as he took on a go-to scorer's role. Tim remains one of the more talented 3's in the entire Big Ten and comes back with more talent around him than he's ever had while at Michigan.
It's difficult to compare these players as Hardaway is a slasher, scorer and shooting while Dawson is dunker and rebounder. Dawson in transition is like Spartan basketball porn while Hardaway is as good as any SF in the country when his 3 pointers are falling.
Edge: MSU (slight and depending on the health of Dawson)
PF: Glenn Robinson III/Mitch McGary/Max Beifeldt vs Adreian Payne/Alex Gauna/Kenny Kaminski
Where Gary Harris is MSU's recruiting gem, I truly believe Glenn Robinson III is that guy for Michigan. Michigan hasn't seen a guy with Robinson's athletic ability since Brent Petway and that is a bad comparison because Robinson can actually play basketball. I think Robinson has the best chance of any Wolverine to be a superstar and a lottery pick in the NBA. It may take him a little bit to earn all that lofty praise I'm giving him but all indications are that he's a special talent. Mitch McGary was the #2 prospect in the entire nation at one point last season before taking a plummet to the 4 star/5 star fringe. He comes in as a high energy player who will provide rebounding and a spark in the hustle department. I expect him to earn minutes as the year goes on and to play a lot when/if Michigan goes "big".
C: Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford vs Derrick Nix/Matt Costello
Derrick Nix returns to anchor the Spartans in the middle. Nix has had problems on the defensive end and with weight issues throughout his career but he can really score the basketball. When he's on his game he's one of the better low post scorers in the B1G. (Nix and Payne are mostly interchangeable between the 4 and 5, depending on the team. They will both play both at times.)
Jordan Morgan enters his reds
hirt Junior season after two very productive years. Morgan isn't the type of guy who you give the ball to on a regular basis to provide offense but he gets points in transition, does a good job on the glass and shoots a very high percentage. Before his injury last season Jon Horford was usurping Morgan's minutes and seems to have the higher upside of the two. Expect both to be significant contributors this season and hold down the center spot well for Michigan. Mitch McGary could also see time at the 5 spot. Michigan also has Blake McClimans.
Edge: Even
These seem like pretty even squads. Let's take a look at the statistics from last season:
PPG:
OPPG:
Rebounding Margin:
Turnovers:
By possession metrics:
Michigan got bigger and more athletic and should see a benefit in their rebounding numbers but may also see a drop in the 3 point shooting %.
MSU loses a great star in Draymond Green and will need to find players to create offense and fill the leadership vacuum left by his departure. As is typically true of Izzo coached teams I expect this year's Spartans may start a little slowly due to the new faces and distribution of offensive possessions but should round into form by B1G play and be ready to make a run in March.
Both teams should compete with Indiana and Ohio State for the B1G championship and I've learned to never count out Bo Ryan's Badgers.
After each earning a share of the B1G title last season, Michigan and Michigan state enter the basketball season with high expectations. The Spartans lose the B1G MVP, All-Everything Draymond Green, Austin Thorton, Brandon Wood, Anthony Ianni while the Wolverines will need to replace the leadership and outside shooting of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass. The only other departure for the Wolverines is the transfer of Evan Smotcryz.
Both teams add excellent recruiting classes to their squads in 2012-13. Michigan adds big time recruits Glenn (Tre) Robinson III (Indeed, that's Big Dog's kid) as well as Mitch McGary. Coming to Ann Arbor along with them will be Nik Stauskas, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht. MSU adds super recruit Gary Harris as well as...Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costelo and Denzel Valentine.
Let's compare each position between the Spartans and the Wolverines. These comparisons require some guesswork because lineups and rotations are difficult to determine before the season. For Michigan, I'm working on the assumption that JB will keep his 4 shooters/1 big offense humming along though word out of practice is that they have been implementing some "big" lineup with some combination of Morgan/Horford/McGary at the 4/5 and Burke/Hardway/Robinson at the 1/2/3. However, I still think they will revert to old habits and Glenn Robinson III will end up with the majority of minutes at power forward and Hardaway will remain at the 3 (where he has played his entire Michigan career).
PG: Keith Appling/Travis Trice vs Trey Burke/Spike Albrecht
Michigan State returns Keith Appling at the PG position. Keith was having a great season early on last year but seemed to really wear down as the season trudged on. Adding some backcourt help should allow Appling to stay fresher this season. (I assume) he will be backed up by sophomore Travis Trice. Trice earned a lot of playing time last season and should be a better than average backup PG. Trice might be a better point than Appling. While Appling is a more dynamic player, if that makes sense. However, what trice has and that Appling does not, is the ability to shoot the three. Trice netted 40.5% last year while Appling netted 25% (down from 41% his frosh year.) I think Trice is going to have a fantastic year as a back up.
Michigan returns Trey Burke, the co B1G freshman of the year (along with Tyler Zeller) and a guy who was maybe the best PG in the league a season ago. He will need to play heavy minutes this year as he was mostly backed up by Stu Douglass last season. Incoming freshman Spike Albrecht is a pure PG, that is to say he's short and looks to pass more than he looks to score. If Spike can defend B1G PG's he will spell Burke for 5-10 minutes per game. If Spike isn't up to the challenge the Wolverines will rely even more heavily on Burke and may have to turn to freshman guards Caris Levert or Nik Stauskas (though both should be SG/SF type players)
The Wolverines have the edge here as Burke outplayed Appling throughout the season last year. Burke is probably on the short list of players to watch for in the race for B1G POTY in 2012-13 (along with the aforementioned Zeller) But don't sleep on Appling, he's a high end talent and made some significant strides between his freshman and sophomore years. Another step forward and he puts himself in the same category as Burke as one of the best PG's in the country.
Edge: Michigan
 |
Harris is MSU's prized true freshman and should be an impact player immediately. He'll be the best SG MSU has seen in a long time. By all accounts he is ready to play immediately and should have no problem being a difference maker. (After watching the exhibtion game, Harris appeared to have the go ahead to shoot threes. Which is fine because he made a few. It would make my day if he was a super freshman. I have no idea what to expect but he was a highly coveted recruit and will start as a true frosh. Byrd will also get PT as shooting guard. His stroke was off in the first exhibition game. But it loks really good coming out. Any sort of consistent threat from three for this MSU team (and really all basketball teams) will make them nearly impossible to guard. This year, Denzel Valentine should see most of his time at SG. He is a tall player known for his play making ability. He is the teams future point. He had some boneheaded plays in the exhibition, but looked like he belonged as well. For Michigan here I have a 3 way battle between two true freshman and a 4th year senior. Vogrich might get the start early on in the season as Beilein turns to his experience, perimeter shooting and defensive hustle. I expect him to give way to Stauskas at some point. I'm massively high on the canadian prospect as I think he'll be Jon Diebler 2.0. He can simply shoot the basketball. Levert has come in for a lot of praise throughout the preseason and could be a guy who surprises with athleticism on the wing.
Despite how high I am on Stauskas I truly believe Gary Harris is an NBA player within 2 years. While most of the talent here for both teams will be true freshman I believe MSU has the edge at the top with the best player among all the SG's on both teams.
Edge: MSU
SF: Brenden Dawson/Brandon Kearney/ Russell Byrd vs Tim Hardaway Jr/Glenn Robinson III
Dawson was really coming into his own late in the season before suffering an injury. He returns as MSU's go to wing player. He'll likely see minutes at the 4 as well. Along with that Dawson should lead the team in scoring. I would not be surprised if it is over 20 points per game. He is wildly athletic around the court and his ability so snatch up rebounds will get him a lot of cheap buckets. If he happens to develop a 15 footer, look out. Kearney will play mostly as a defensive specialist. He still is exceptionally lanky. Kearney could score in high school and that did not show last year. Brandon may have the go ahead to start slashing to the hoop. That would go a long way towards helping the sub team. As previously mentioned, Bryd should see some PT here as well. Tim Hardaway enters his Jr season (see what I did there?) after having a bit of a Sophomore slump last year. Hardaway's efficiency really decreased as he took on a go-to scorer's role. Tim remains one of the more talented 3's in the entire Big Ten and comes back with more talent around him than he's ever had while at Michigan.
It's difficult to compare these players as Hardaway is a slasher, scorer and shooting while Dawson is dunker and rebounder. Dawson in transition is like Spartan basketball porn while Hardaway is as good as any SF in the country when his 3 pointers are falling.
Edge: MSU (slight and depending on the health of Dawson)
PF: Glenn Robinson III/Mitch McGary/Max Beifeldt vs Adreian Payne/Alex Gauna/Kenny Kaminski
Where Gary Harris is MSU's recruiting gem, I truly believe Glenn Robinson III is that guy for Michigan. Michigan hasn't seen a guy with Robinson's athletic ability since Brent Petway and that is a bad comparison because Robinson can actually play basketball. I think Robinson has the best chance of any Wolverine to be a superstar and a lottery pick in the NBA. It may take him a little bit to earn all that lofty praise I'm giving him but all indications are that he's a special talent. Mitch McGary was the #2 prospect in the entire nation at one point last season before taking a plummet to the 4 star/5 star fringe. He comes in as a high energy player who will provide rebounding and a spark in the hustle department. I expect him to earn minutes as the year goes on and to play a lot when/if Michigan goes "big".
With Payne at PF, and Nix at center, MSU will struggle to
guard a lot of larger 4 spot players on a given night. Payne, has
been able to get the best of some low post players, (think every OSU game last
year) but has also been boxed out by similar players. Payne has
been a bit of a head scratcher for me. He was a 5 star recruit that never
seemed to developed a low post move. If Payne spent his summer working on
a 6 foot jumper and a hook shot, wed be walking into the national championship
game. Unfortunately, after watching the first exhibition game, it appears Payne
left off from last year. Payne has a lot of ability in an uptempo game,
but once it becomes half court, he seems to over think it. What can make
up for that though is if Payne is constantly crashing the boards and running
down the floor. We need is length and athleticism. Guana is nearly
the exact opposite. Guana can hit jump shots but seems to always miss the
rebound right next him. Alex is also half the athlete as Payne but
appears to have twice the post moves. Gauna looked good in the
first exhibition game, that was promising.
Edge: Michigan (though unproven) I will go ahead an disagree with
this. Solely because none of your players have played college
basketball before. And Payne isn't dog food. Edge MSU.
(just do this ALLLL the time)
C: Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford vs Derrick Nix/Matt Costello
Derrick Nix returns to anchor the Spartans in the middle. Nix has had problems on the defensive end and with weight issues throughout his career but he can really score the basketball. When he's on his game he's one of the better low post scorers in the B1G. (Nix and Payne are mostly interchangeable between the 4 and 5, depending on the team. They will both play both at times.)
Jordan Morgan enters his reds
hirt Junior season after two very productive years. Morgan isn't the type of guy who you give the ball to on a regular basis to provide offense but he gets points in transition, does a good job on the glass and shoots a very high percentage. Before his injury last season Jon Horford was usurping Morgan's minutes and seems to have the higher upside of the two. Expect both to be significant contributors this season and hold down the center spot well for Michigan. Mitch McGary could also see time at the 5 spot. Michigan also has Blake McClimans.
Edge: Even
These seem like pretty even squads. Let's take a look at the statistics from last season:
PPG:
OPPG:
Rebounding Margin:
Turnovers:
By possession metrics:
Michigan got bigger and more athletic and should see a benefit in their rebounding numbers but may also see a drop in the 3 point shooting %.
MSU loses a great star in Draymond Green and will need to find players to create offense and fill the leadership vacuum left by his departure. As is typically true of Izzo coached teams I expect this year's Spartans may start a little slowly due to the new faces and distribution of offensive possessions but should round into form by B1G play and be ready to make a run in March.
Both teams should compete with Indiana and Ohio State for the B1G championship and I've learned to never count out Bo Ryan's Badgers.
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