Basketball. That is all.

(Ed Note, this was mostly done by pat, I have added my 2 cents in italics.)

After each earning a share of the B1G title last season, Michigan and Michigan state enter the basketball season with high expectations.  The Spartans lose the B1G MVP, All-Everything Draymond Green, Austin Thorton, Brandon Wood, Anthony Ianni while the Wolverines will need to replace the leadership and outside shooting of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass.  The only other departure for the Wolverines is the transfer of Evan Smotcryz.

Both teams add excellent recruiting classes to their squads in 2012-13.  Michigan adds big time recruits Glenn (Tre) Robinson III (Indeed, that's Big Dog's kid) as well as Mitch McGary.  Coming to Ann Arbor along with them will be Nik Stauskas, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht.  MSU adds super recruit Gary Harris as well as...Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costelo and Denzel Valentine.

Let's compare each position between the Spartans and the Wolverines.  These comparisons require some guesswork because lineups and rotations are difficult to determine before the season.  For Michigan, I'm working on the assumption that JB will keep his 4 shooters/1 big offense humming along though word out of practice is that they have been implementing some "big" lineup with some combination of Morgan/Horford/McGary at the 4/5 and Burke/Hardway/Robinson at the 1/2/3.  However, I still think they will revert to old habits and Glenn Robinson III will end up with the majority of minutes at power forward and Hardaway will remain at the 3 (where he has played his entire Michigan career).

PG:  Keith Appling/Travis Trice vs Trey Burke/Spike Albrecht

Michigan State returns Keith Appling at the PG position.  Keith was having a great season early on last year but seemed to really wear down as the season trudged on.  Adding some backcourt help should allow Appling to stay fresher this season.  (I assume) he will be backed up by sophomore Travis Trice.  Trice earned a lot of playing time last season and should be a better than average backup PG.  Trice might be a better point than Appling.  While Appling is a more dynamic player, if that makes sense.  However, what trice has and that Appling does not, is the ability to shoot the three.  Trice netted 40.5% last year while Appling netted 25% (down from 41% his frosh  year.)  I think Trice is going to have a fantastic year as a back up.

Michigan returns Trey Burke, the co B1G freshman of the year (along with Tyler Zeller) and a guy who was maybe the best PG in the league a season ago.  He will need to play heavy minutes this year as he was mostly backed up by Stu Douglass last season.  Incoming freshman Spike Albrecht is a pure PG, that is to say he's short and looks to pass more than he looks to score.  If Spike can defend B1G PG's he will spell Burke for 5-10 minutes per game.  If Spike isn't up to the challenge the Wolverines will rely even more heavily on Burke and may have to turn to freshman guards Caris Levert or Nik Stauskas (though both should be SG/SF type players)

The Wolverines have the edge here as Burke outplayed Appling throughout the season last year.  Burke is probably on the short list of players to watch for in the race for B1G POTY in 2012-13 (along with the aforementioned Zeller) But don't sleep on Appling, he's a high end talent and made some significant strides between his freshman and sophomore years.  Another step forward and he puts himself in the same category as Burke as one of the best PG's in the country.

Edge: Michigan

SG: Gary Harris/Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd vs Nik Stauskas/Caris Levert/Matt Vogrich

Harris is MSU's prized true freshman and should be an impact player immediately.  He'll be the best SG MSU has seen in a long time.  By all accounts he is ready to play immediately and should have no problem being a difference maker. (After watching the exhibtion game, Harris appeared to have the go ahead to shoot threes.  Which is fine because he made a few.  It would make my day if he was a super freshman.  I have no idea what to expect but he was a highly coveted recruit and will start as a true frosh.  Byrd will also get PT as shooting guard. His stroke was off in the first exhibition game.  But it loks really good coming out.  Any sort of consistent threat from three for this MSU team (and really all basketball teams) will make them nearly impossible to guard.  This year, Denzel Valentine should see most of his time at SG.  He is a tall player known for his play making ability.  He is the teams future point.  He had some boneheaded plays in the exhibition, but looked like he belonged as well.   For Michigan here I have a 3 way battle between two true freshman and a 4th year senior.  Vogrich might get the start early on in the season as Beilein turns to his experience, perimeter shooting and defensive hustle.  I expect him to give way to Stauskas at some point.  I'm massively high on the canadian prospect as I think he'll be Jon Diebler 2.0.  He can simply shoot the basketball. Levert has come in for a lot of praise throughout the preseason and could be a guy who surprises with athleticism on the wing.

Despite how high I am on Stauskas I truly believe Gary Harris is an NBA player within 2 years.  While most of the talent here for both teams will be true freshman I believe MSU has the edge at the top with the best player among all the SG's on both teams.

Edge: MSU

SF: Brenden Dawson/Brandon Kearney/ Russell Byrd vs Tim Hardaway Jr/Glenn Robinson III

Dawson was really coming into his own late in the season before suffering an injury.  He returns as MSU's go to wing player.  He'll likely see minutes at the 4 as well.  Along with that Dawson should lead the team in scoring.  I would not be surprised if it is over 20 points per game.  He is wildly athletic around the court and his ability so snatch up rebounds will get him a lot of cheap buckets.  If he happens to develop a 15 footer, look out.  Kearney will play mostly as a defensive specialist.  He still is exceptionally lanky.  Kearney could score in high school and that did not show last year.  Brandon may have the go ahead to start slashing to the hoop. That would go a long way towards helping the sub team.  As previously mentioned, Bryd should see some PT here as well. Tim Hardaway enters his Jr season (see what I did there?) after having a bit of a Sophomore slump last year.  Hardaway's efficiency really decreased as he took on a go-to scorer's role.  Tim remains one of the more talented 3's in the entire Big Ten and comes back with more talent around him than he's ever had while at Michigan.

It's difficult to compare these players as Hardaway is a slasher, scorer and shooting while Dawson is dunker and rebounder.  Dawson in transition is like Spartan basketball porn while Hardaway is as good as any SF in the country when his 3 pointers are falling.

Edge: MSU (slight and depending on the health of Dawson)

PF: Glenn Robinson III/Mitch McGary/Max Beifeldt vs Adreian Payne/Alex Gauna/Kenny Kaminski

Where Gary Harris is MSU's recruiting gem, I truly believe Glenn Robinson III is that guy for Michigan. Michigan hasn't seen a guy with Robinson's athletic ability since Brent Petway and that is a bad comparison because Robinson can actually play basketball.  I think Robinson has the best chance of any Wolverine to be a superstar and a lottery pick in the NBA.  It may take him a little bit to earn all that lofty praise I'm giving him but all indications are that he's a special talent.   Mitch McGary was the #2 prospect in the entire nation at one point last season before taking a plummet to the 4 star/5 star fringe.  He comes in as a high energy player who will provide rebounding and a spark in the hustle department.  I expect him to earn minutes as the year goes on and to play a lot when/if Michigan goes "big".

With Payne at PF, and Nix at center, MSU will struggle to guard a lot of larger  4 spot players on a given night.  Payne, has been able to get the best of some low post players, (think every OSU game last year) but has also been boxed out by similar players.  Payne has  been a bit of a head scratcher for me.  He was a 5 star recruit that never seemed to developed a low post move.  If Payne spent his summer working on a 6 foot jumper and a hook shot, wed be walking into the national championship game. Unfortunately, after watching the first exhibition game, it appears Payne left off from last year.  Payne has a lot of ability in an uptempo game, but once it becomes half court, he seems to over think it.  What can make up for that though is if Payne is constantly crashing the boards and running down the floor.  We need is length and athleticism.  Guana is nearly the exact opposite.  Guana can hit jump shots but seems to always miss the rebound right next him.  Alex is also half the athlete as Payne but appears to have twice the post moves.   Gauna looked good in the first exhibition game, that was promising.

Edge: Michigan (though unproven) I will go ahead an disagree with this.  Solely because none of your players have played college basketball before.  And Payne isn't dog food.  Edge MSU.

 

 

(just do this ALLLL the time)

 
C: Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford vs Derrick Nix/Matt Costello

Derrick Nix returns to anchor the Spartans in the middle.  Nix has had problems on the defensive end and with weight issues throughout his career but he can really score the basketball.  When he's on his game he's one of the better low post scorers in the B1G. (Nix and Payne are mostly interchangeable between the 4 and 5, depending on the team.  They will both play both at times.)

Jordan Morgan enters his reds
hirt Junior season after two very productive years.  Morgan isn't the type of guy who you give the ball to on a regular basis to provide offense but he gets points in transition, does a good job on the glass and shoots a very high percentage.  Before his injury last season Jon Horford was usurping Morgan's minutes and seems to have the higher upside of the two.  Expect both to be significant contributors this season and hold down the center spot well for Michigan.  Mitch McGary could also see time at the 5 spot.  Michigan also has Blake McClimans.

Edge: Even

These seem like pretty even squads.  Let's take a look at the statistics from last season:

PPG:
OPPG:
Rebounding Margin:
Turnovers:

By possession metrics:

Michigan got bigger and more athletic and should see a benefit in their rebounding numbers but may also see a drop in the 3 point shooting %.

MSU loses a great star in Draymond Green and will need to find players to create offense and fill the leadership vacuum left by his departure.  As is typically true of Izzo coached teams I expect this year's Spartans may start a little slowly due to the new faces and distribution of offensive possessions but should round into form by B1G play and be ready to make a run in March.

Both teams should compete with Indiana and Ohio State for the B1G championship and I've learned to never count out Bo Ryan's Badgers.