The B1G, A Basketball Powerhouse

There are still some nonconference games to play before the heart of the B1G season begins, but one thing is certain: the Big Ten is ridiculous.  A 12 team conference has 9 teams with legitimate tournament aspirations.  It's going to be a long and brutal season in the Big Ten this year.  Road wins are going to come scarcely and playing Penn State may be the only possible reprieve.

A totally preliminary ranking of the 12 teams. 

1.  Ohio State

Easy to be pumped playing for the Buckeyes these days.

Despite losing @Kansas (without Sullinger),  the Buckeyes are the class of the conference.    Deshaun Thomas may be the most improved player in the league as he has turned himself into a star.  The Buckeyes are loaded with high end talent.  Aaron Craft is guaranteed to piss me off for 3 more years. (I think he's a hack but he always gets away with his reaching!)  The Buckeyes look destined for a conference championship and a #1 seed.
 
2. Wisconsin
Bo Ryan is good at coaching basketball and especially defense.   Playing in Madison will be the toughest road venue outside of Columbus for yet another season.

3. Michigan
Trey Burke has done a great job replacing Darius Morris.  This may be a bit high for Michigan but since it's my squad I believe I'm allowed to be optimistic.

4. MSU
Deep and athletic, if they can hit outside shots they can play with anyone because of their effort on the boards.  Will be interesting to see how young players deal with the tough Big Ten schedule.

5. Indiana
I may have them ranked too low.  I'm a believer in Zeller and the talent in Bloomington is enough for this team to make some serious noise.  The win over Kentucky was announcement to the rest of the nation that IU is back.

6. Illinois

Hi, I'm tall

What was that I said about Deshaun Thomas?  Yeah, that was wrong.  Meyers Leonard has been the most improved player in the B1G this year.  This 7'1 behemoth averaged 2 pts and 1 rebound as a freshman last year.  He's Illinois best player now, averaging 13 pts 7 rebounds and 3 blocks.  He's the main reason Illinois will make the tournament again this season.

7. Purdue
Could the B1G's 7th place team have the league's best player?  Another team I probably have ranked too low.  They lost so much from last year's squad but Hummel's return is a huge boost, the biggest any one player makes on a roster this season.

Another note on Hummel, does anyone think he'll be a good pro or a pro at all?  I have no idea how his game will translate.

8. Northwestern
Is this finally the year they bust through and make the dance?  If you didn't know, NW has never made the NCAA tournament in their history.  Ouch. 

9. Minnesota
Speaking of ouch.  Minny would be much higher on this list if their best player, Trevor Mbakwe hadn't suffered a season ending injury.  They'll still be tough to beat in the barn.

10. Iowa
I thought their modest amount of success at the end of last season would carry over into this year, but this team doesn't look much better than last year's squad.

11. Nebraska
I know nothing about you, Cornhuskers.  You get ranked ahead of PSU by default.

12. PSU
Hey, it's basketball season so the media and all you Nittany Lion fans can forget about the Jerry Sandusky scandal and just enjoy Penn State on the hardwood.  Yeah, this was sarcasm.  Your team is bad and the Sandusky cloud isn't going anywhere for a long, long time.


Top team, bottom 3

I can't say I'm confident about anything on this list other than Ohio State being the best team in the conference and Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State making up the basement. 

I'm serious about this, teams 2-7 could all end up as the #2 team in the conference.  I have no idea how to rank the middle pack.  It's one big jumble that will definitely be hashed out over the course of the season.  It will be a fun year in the B1G, the best conference in college basketball.

Weekend Roundup

So there are all kinds of things to discuss today.  I will start off with Americas next great hope for the heavyweight title.  The story from MLive is here.  This is a pretty good story too as far as boxing stories go.  The guy Seth is going against is older, more seasoned and higher ranked.  The match will be on HBO.  I will be watching it, or at the very least, DVRing to watch later. 

Last night, MSU played at UM in hockey and lost.  From the write up it sounded like a hard fought game, lot of grit, some offensive flare from a sold out Yost Arena.  I will add that, my first division one collegiate hockey game was at Yost.  Pat took me to a UM versus Miami Ohio game. I think the student section ended a chant with pig fucker.  This year, UM started the year as the number one ranked team in the country.  However, after a number of tough losses, the Wolverines are no longer ranked.  The Spartans came into this game having won 8 of their last 11 and holding a number 14 ranking.  The game tonight moves to Munn Ice Arena where the 1986  national championship team will be honored.  I expect this to be another tight contest.   The MSU/UM hockey games are my favorite of the rivalry to attend - yes, over football.  I just love hockey.  I am gonna predict a 4-3 win for MSU, the opposite of last night game. Tune into the BTN tonight to watch.

What else is there?  O yea.  MSU plays at Gonzaga, tipoff is slated for 9 eastern, I think on ESPN.  This will be the Spartans first true road test.  After playing on an aircraft carrier, in MSG, and at Eastern (sorry Eagles).  Look for there to be plenty of coverage on Jud Hethcote who will be sitting between the two benches watching his two proteges, Tom Izzo and Mark Few lead their teams.  But do not be fooled by Jud's adoptive home of Spokane, he will be rooting for the Spartans the entire game.  Here is a good interview done by Joe Rexrode.  The key for MSU to win this game will be the perimeter defense.  Illinois was able to sneak out a win on their home court against the Zags by shooting over 50% from the floor.  I am not sure MSU will be able to do that, so defense will be key.  After the soft play of Payne in the last game, Izzo was quoted as saying that Elias Harris must be licking a big dog bone in anticipation of Payne coming in.   So how will perimeter D win?  Easy.  THe Zags will look to shoot the three by working an inside outside game.  Our bigs are going to have to grow up defensivly quick because we cannot afford to have our wings double down and leave the Bulldog shooters open.  Stopping dribble penetration, and keeping hands in the face of three point shooters will go a long way towards a Spartan victory.  If MSU wins this game, I think it could be a catalyst for B1G play.  I like our chances but we are going to need to shoot the ball as well as defend it.  This is a game where Wood needs to show up.  He is a great scorer that goes through both hot and cold spells for us.  If wood were to drive the lane and pick up some fouls on the Gonzaga bigs. MSU can start to exploit any substitutions the Bulldogs make.  With that, Payne and Nix need to be able to bang down low.  Get them the ball and please o please do not turn it over/concert your three foot chances.  Elias Harris is 6-7 and Robert Sacre is 7-0.  That is a lot of length and both are lean and mean.  Nix with his shorter stature will need to be able to use strength to create room for his shots.  While Payne measures up well with both these guys, his post moves are less refined than Nix's.  For Payne to have success he is going to need to use his athletic ability.  Avoid being boxed out, run the floor and leap over the Gonzaga bigs.  This will be a good game to watch, and I like our chances.  I think the three will start falling for us, and Appling will put in a superb defensive effort on the perimiter.  I will call it 76-71 MSU.  Please leave your prediction in the comments!

Go Green!

Playoffs?

Do the Lions make it?

Detroit sits at 7-5, solidly in the mix for a wildcard berth.  They are fighting for 2 spots with Chicago, Atlanta (both 7-5) and the NY Giants (6-6).  Chicago and Atlanta both hold tiebreakers over Detroit (which could play a huge role).

Remaining schedule for the Lions:

vs Minnesota
@ Oakland
vs San Diego
@ GB

Cry Me a River

Michigan is in the Sugar Bowl.  It was announced Sunday night that they will be playing Virginia Tech.  I thought most people knew this was a foregone conclusion (Michigan in the Sugar) after they beat OSU?  Sure, some things could have happened to keep them out but it was always more likely than not they would be selected.

This post is not a shot at my fellow blogger as he hasn't been bitching to me (yet) but more generally the whining and complaining throughout the internet and elsewhere.  Michigan State fans are crying foul.  Of course, all of the arguments I read are delusional, misinformed and illogical.  Starting with Kirk Cousins:

"Michigan sat home tonight on the couch and watched us," the senior said shortly after the game's conclusion. "We played our hearts out — you saw it. I don't see how you get punished for playing and someone else gets to sit on the couch and get what they want.
"If this is the way the system is, I guess it's a broken system."

Michigan's Ryan VanBergen responded appropriately already...

"If he wants to go sit on a couch and watch us play in the Big Ten championship game, then he can do that," Van Bergen said. "They had an opportunity to go the Rose Bowl. It was sitting right in front of them for them to grab. They didn't seize the opportunity.
"I think that they'll do well in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck. Best wishes. We're going to the Sugar Bowl, and we're excited about it."

So where Kirk left off, Spartans have jumped in to carry the banner.  They are clearly cry babies, just like Cousins.

First, let me explain one little fact that most miss in this argument.  Other than the BCS National Championship game, the BCS is not designed to reward teams in any sort of playoff system.  It ranks teams.  It's sole purpose is to find the two best teams to pair up for a one game playoff to determine the national champion.  There are all sorts of problems with this system, but let's save that argument for another day.  This discussion is about the rest of the bowls, which are independent entities out for profit.  The BCS provides some parameters with which these bowls must select, and of course the bowls want to create the best matchups to make money and sell tickets.  So any argument about another team "deserving" a BCS bowl (other than the Championship game) are missing the point to begin with.  Teams are not selected solely on merit!  Everyone should know and expect this outcome every season.

Just for fun, let's assume for a second that BCS bowls were required to select teams solely on merit.  Who deserves to be in a BCS game more, Michigan or MSU?

MSU finished ranked 17th in the final BCS poll, Michigan finished 13th.  For a team to be selected for an at large bid, they must be ranked in the top 14.  So for you math majors, MSU is not even eligible for a BCS bid.

The next argument is that the BCS is a flawed system because Michigan is ranked ahead of MSU.  "The Spartans should not be punished for making their league's championship game!"  is the doozy Cousins first stated and the one I keep reading.

This is clearly illogical.  The Spartans moved down in the rankings because they lost a game.  Should the Big Ten championship game's results not factor into bowl seeding?  Or does a win count for the winning team but a loss doesn't count against the loser?  MSU earned the right to play in the Big Ten Championship, all they had to do to make the Rose Bowl was win the game.  They failed to do so and suffered the consequences of a loss. The game matters just like any other game throughout the season matters. 


"But Michigan State beat Michigan head-to-head!"

This is 100% true.  It also fails to encompass the entire season of each team.  Michigan finished 10-2, MSU 10-3.  Michigan pummeled Nebraska, who pummeled Sparty.  Michigan beat Notre Dame, who beat MSU.  The transitive property never means anything in sports, but the point is that teams play drastically different from week to week.  Head to head matchups tell us who the best team was on a given Saturday, but body of work should be included in determining who the best team is overall. 

So let's take a critical look at body of work.(color coded to show the advantage in each category)


First MSU:
10-3

5 wins over bowl teams

Opponent record = 82-75 (MSU played FCS Youngstown State who finished with a 6-5 record) (MSU also played Wisconsin twice, thus the 12 more total games played)

Record of opponents they beat = 55-66

Best Wins: Wisconsin, Michigan

Losses: @Notre Dame, @Nebraska, neutral site Wisconsin

Score vs Common Opponents: 153-138

Total Defense: 5th (273 yards per game)

Scoring Defense: 9th (17.46 ppg)

Total Offense: 60th (390 yards per game)

Scoring Offense: 39th (30.8 ppg)

For Michigan:
10-2

8 wins over bowl teams

Overall opponent record = 82-63

Record of opponents they beat = 66-54

Best Wins: Nebraska, Notre Dame

Losses: @MSU, @Iowa

Score vs Common Opponents 250-158

Total Defense: 18th (318 yards per game) 

Scoring Defense: 7th (17.17 ppg) 

Total Offense: 30th (435 yards per game)

Scoring Offense: 23rd (34.2 ppg)


Now I know my esteemed colleague says he doesn't like statistics, but I feel this is a pretty slam dunk case above that Michigan played a more difficult schedule and played better within that schedule than the Spartans.  The head to head matchup certainly matters, but the rest of the evidence matters as well. 

All this boils down to one simple little fact;
Michigan is more deserving of a BCS bid than the Spartans.

Keep eatin'

Donkey

That's what Brett Bielema is.  It is impossible to like that man. He is similar to Dantonio only he manages to be more pompous.  I was not sure that was possible but it is.  Don't get me wrong.  I think Mark is a fantastic coach, and he has the attitude MSU has been lacking for over a decade.  But man, I don't think Bielema's own mother likes him.  For every ounce of competitiveness and respect Dantonio shows other coaches (even the Dantonio/Hoke exchange appeared good spirited), Bielema has nothing but hate and a chip on his shoulder.  There is no way Iowa fans respect him, he is must be the most hated coach in the entire B1G.

Whoa, not sure where that came from.  Maybe it is in my sub-conscious since every week my girlfriend calls Brett Bielema a fat fuck (true story). 

I wont get into the game much.  Bitching about the reffing will not do me any good (you can read my twitter for a whole bunch of bitching though @ ztj521 ).  MSU was in a position to win the game, and missed a couple of assignments, boom, we lost. Instead wow what a team.

There is no doubt in my mind that MSU is the best team in the B1G this year.  We beat Wiscy once, should have beat them a second time. Beat UM. Lost to Nebraska, but finished better than them.  This defense is stellar (Worthy has been named an All-American).  The offense is potent.  There is not a better combo in MSU history than Cousins to Cunningham (well maybe not..). Our very young offensive line has gelled as the year went on and looks to be the strength of the offense next year.  Bell got better as the year went on. I am very proud of this Spartan team.  The Outback Bowl should  be good, facing a Georgia team that 10-3 in the SEC.  And if you are wondering why we didn't get the Capital One Bowl, it is because we've been there three times in four years. 

Let's beat Georgia.

MSU plays Gonzaga on Saturday in bball.

Rosey Rosie Rose'?

So he we are the B1G championship game and a chance for MSU to make it to the Rose Bowl.  The Grandaddy of them all!  Unfortunately MSU is having an in season rematch against Wisconsin.  A team we beat earlier in the season on yes, a hail mary.  However, what is often forgotten is that MSU was up 14 on Wisconsin in the fourth quarter.  So what does that say?  Mostly that Wisconsin is a good football team.  They can score, they have a good defense.  That's why they have a chance to go to their second straight Rose Bowl.  So what did I write for the first preview and how can these things work for us a second time around?  See below! (previous games three things in gray.)

MSU vs. Wisconsin

WHOA.  This game snuck up on me.  Nothing posted since the Michigan game.  Also, for those UM fans out there, Pat is at a wedding and will unable to post anything.  It helps that Michigan has a bye week... So, let us jump right into to East Lansing. 



I will start by saying that the reason that they have nets up on College Gameday is that in about 1997 I want to say, fans pelted Herbstreit with  beer cans.   GO STATE!

What are three things to watch out for?

1:  The play of Russel Wilson.

For MSU to win this game, they need to stop Wilson from making plays.  Russel is is both an upgrade and a down grade from Denard Robinson, he is a less dynamic runner but a better passer.  We need to get to Wilson early and get some hits on him.  Any way to rattle the quarterback and disrupt some timing on his passes will go a long way to winning this game.  On that note, Wilson is still very capable of running and going out on passes to catch the pass. 



This rings exactly true again.  In the first match up MSU was able to create some turnovers by picking Russell off.  I am not sure that those same poor throws that the Wisconsin QB made in the first game will happen here again.  After the rest of the season of preparation Wisconsin is looking good.  If you need any proof, look at the score of the Penn State game (though the PSU players may have had a lot on their minds). For Wisconsin to win this game they will need Wilson to be flawless.  Hell have to open up lanes for both himself and Ball to run in by passing effectively.   

2: Defensive line play.

This Wisconsin offensive line is just about a complete 180 from the Michigan offensive line.  These are big boys.  Wisconsin is best known for their massive offensive linemen and their ability to pound the football.  Without William Gholston, the MSU offensive line is going to need to step up their play.  We need to find ways get through their line and stop that initial push.  If Wisconsin is constantly getting a good 2 or 3 yards of push in the trenches it is going to be a long day for the Spartans.  I am looking for the defensive line to blitz more linebackers both on the edge and up the middle and keep the defensive backs in coverage to limit Wilsons ability to pass the ball on blitzes.



No clever segway here, mainly cause this is exaclty true again.  MSU's defensive line needs to have a MONSTER game.  Think Suh in the Big 12 championship game his senior year.  We will need that kind of game out of our whole line.  The biggest difference between last game and this game is that William Gholston will be back.  Gholston missed the last match up after feasting on some Wolverines for an entire game.  Well now it's Badger season - time to feed the beast.  Coupled with that is the fact that Wisconsin's starting center is questionable with a dislocated ankle (that sounds horrible feeling).  To win this match up our ends need to plug the lanes and keep Wilson from picking up easy yards on the edge.  Along with that, Worthy needs to occupy two blockers and allow our linebackers to make stops at the line.  If we win this game, Bullough will have a good game.   I see that being a major factor in how this game plays out, if the line can allow for Bullough and Allen to make plays before Wisconsin gains yards.  

3: Can we score some points?

This is a HUGE game for our offense.  The offense has been very much a lame duck. At times they have looked good, and other times have looked downright awful.  Wisconsin has been scoring at a clip of about 40 ppg.  Does the MSU offense need to match that?  No.  But we are going to need to get some points with touchdowns - not field goals.  Like the UM game, I expect Kirk Cousins to attack the edges in the passing game and after Keshawn Martins game last week, I see more plays aimed at him...DO NOT FUMBLE THE BALL!!!!!!!!!!   With that, it is pretty obvious that we need to be able to run the football and when MSU is unable to run the football, MSU gets stomped.  Edwin Baker looked like a man possessed last week.  Will he still have that speed, and will our offensive line still have that push?  I sure hope so.  If you cant get up for a game like this, you might as well stay home.  If Kirk can get the ball on the edges and open up some dump passes in the middle to the TE.  We will be very effective on offense. 




This is mostly true again, however, Bell is now our most productive back and it should stay that way this game.  Bell is the more physical back but he also has moves to use againse the linebackers - see any number of spins or leaps from the entire season.  Baker will be use more of a change of pace back with his speed to burn he could pick up some massive chunks of yards in limiated action.  However, the key to this game is the play of ole Kirk.  Kirk and Cunningham have been on fire the last 4 games and that will continue.  Short passes to to Mr. Catch everything himself will open up the running game.  On top of that, Keyshawn Martin is looking the best he has in over a year.  Mainly becauase he is now catching everything.  The speed is there, the hands are there and he is getting the ball his direction.  This extra threat will allow MSU to spread out the Wisconsin defense.  For our tight ends?  Well it will be the same as they have been all year, I belive Sims hand is still in a cast so do not expect him to play a whole lot but there will be chances for our very good receiving tight ends to make plays of 10 yards or more.  

This game is at night, in Spartan Stadium.  The place is going to be rocking.  I think this favors us a lot.  However, I think Wisconsin is legit.  They are big, their running back is fast, and the ability of Wilson to scramble adds another dimension to their offense.   As much as it pains me to type this I do not think MSU wins this one.  31-27 Wisconsin.  Prove me wrong State!! 

To win this game, MSU will have to play with zero turnovers.  This game will be tight throughout.  With defensive stops by MSU getting the crowd rowdy.  Wisconsin wont go away and MSU will need to hold them to under 150 yards rushing.  How do I see this ending?  34-31 MSU and a trip to our first Rose Bowl since I was 4.  

GO GREEN

Little late

but expect content tomorrow regarding the first B1G championship game.  I likely will not have much in the way of breakdown of MSU vs. Wiscy since they have already played.  But I would like to rehash that.  Uh, in the meantime?  GO GREEN.