A Week Seems Like A Year

As you know a lot has happened in the B1G and for MSU over the last week.  Pat is still AWOL and there are no signs of his return, at least until he gets back to California.  Maryland and Rutgers to the B1G (ugh) MSU eeked one out past Minnesota (yay).  michigan lost to OSU (meh).  Coupled with that have been some basketball games.  Where MSU has won some close ones, lost a sloppy one and cruised to a victory.

This MSU basketball team is the tale of two teams.  A team with a backup point guard and a team without.  MSU looks a lot better when Trice is playing.  Trice is a career (approximately)  48% three point shooter.  Last year he shot just over 40% and this year is shooting 56% (though his total shots this year are hardly enough to predict season results).  But this is what Trice can bring to the MSU team, a three point threat (and a breather for Appling)  Should Trice keep up his current pace of 1.6 threes made per game.  That would likely land him in the top ten in the B1G.  That seems like a stat he is more likely to upkeep versus the 56% made.  For comparison sake, Trice made .93 threes per game.  Even if he were to land somewhere in the middle of .93 and 1.6 that would be an extra dimension that seems to be missing (hopefully Byrd can get going, get some confidence).

 

(make more of these please)

The Spartan Football team was able to make a bowl game!!!! WHOOO HOOOOO.  Pat and I both had the Spartans pegged for 9-3.  We were just a bit off - a call or a field goal away from being there though.  I guess that's sports.  The defense was every bit as advertised - in some aspects better and some aspects worse.  What was shockingly poor was the offense.  Line injuries, I feel, really hampered the development of the passing game.  I am 100% not in the Spartan camp that thinks we should have been playing Connor Cook.  Those people are loony.  Where do go from here though?  Well, we go to a bowl game.  The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl against TCU.  Seems winnable. More on that later.  What I would like to talk about is next year.  Or as Mark Dantonio said at the team banquet "You will be the ones. And you know what I mean by that" (thank you Joe Rexrode twitter).  So what is meant by that?  Winning football games, duh!  MSU is looking to bounce back from a meh 6-6 season.  I would love an 8-4 year next year.  Looking ahead, the schedule is more favorable for MSU (the problem with that is that the only good home game is against UM).  With road games at Notre Dame and Nebraska. 

Tonight MSU basketball plays Arkansas Pine Bluff in what should be a sleeper of a game.  No sense in writing a write up for this game.  Especially since I will be at work missing most of the game.

Coming up next on the blog, is MSU Football entering a Wide Receiver apex?  Was this really a down year for the B1G?   Will Pat ever blog again, or is he resting on his past accomplishments, like a typical michigan fan?

MSU v. Minnesota

Well this is it, one more game to get bowl eligible.  Some players on MSU were talking about national championship gam before the season started.  Now were talking about the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.  That sounds more tasty than fun to play.  But the game itself isnt what this team needs as much as it needs the bowl practices.  We are still a young team and as many players that can get reps as possible is a good thing (that was a clunky sentence).

OFFENSE:  There are a few things that the offense needs to show.  After last week this team needs to show that it can score in the redzone (and in general hang on to the ball).  The Minnesota defense is less than stellar so there should be plenty of opportunity to move the ball around within the 20.  Along with that, the MSU passing game need to keep taking steps forward.  This does not mean that Maxwell needs to drop back 50 times, if  he is, that will mean the score is close.  Instead  it means that the passes need to completed, they need to come on tough catches, maybe a long one or two.  One more point is getting the run game going.  MSU needs to control the clock and there is no better way to do that than running the ball and getting first downs.  With the Gophers giving up over 340 yards per game, MSU should have plenty of opportunity to move the ball

DEFENSE:  I have heard rumblings on MSU Rivals that Gholston is staying for his senior year. This should be a good thing as Gholston needs to get his stock higher.  Every game he plays in he needs to play like his life depends on it.  The Gophers are without their starting quarterback Gray and recently lost the top wide receiver.  AJ Barker recently left the team citing verbal abuse from coach Jerry Kill.  This is a huge blow for the Gophers.  It also allows the MSU defense to  focus in on fewer people.  Look for the MSU defense to attack attack and attack.  MSU will allow their cornerbacks to be one on one deep to make the young Minnesota QB beat them deep.  If he cant make the throws, this game will get ugly early.  Look for a lot of push from the interior defense line as the gopher pass game is disrupted.  Do not expect many rushes up the middle for large gains.  This will have to be an outside edge attack for the Gophers where Allen and Jones will be there to eat.

PREDICTION:  At a lovely Minnesota stadium on a cold but sunny day, the Spartans will come to town and do what they need to to get bowl eligible.  With that, I think MSU will put up a good game offensively call it 31-14 MSU

Northwestern Recap

This won't be much of a recap.  After the loss I was pretty shocked.   There is not a lot to say at this point.  We have lost 7 games by 4 points or less.  Outside of that, what else can you say?  Some fans are calling for Roushar to be fired.  These people are morons.  Some fans think that we should bench Maxwell and get Cook out there.  These people are bigger morons.  If MSU makes a hand full of field goals, we have a couple extra wins.  No one is yelling for MSU to cut the kicker.  On top of that, the offense has looked pretty solid recently especially in the second half of the Northwestern game.  MSU averaged about 4.5 yards per play in this game.  However they had 5 turnovers.  You won't win many games with 5 turnovers. Right now, I cannot pick MSU to be beat Minnesota, regardless of what the Vegas line is.  Coach D has spoke countless times this season about being resilient.  I guess we will see what happens. 

I had grand plans to write a full recap but I just can't, this is all you get. 

So how about those Terrapins?

MSU v. Northwestern

So I have to work today from 10-7.  I am going to miss basically every college football game.  Thank god for DVR.  Goin to make this short and sweet.  I will have a full on recap tomorrow after the game to make up for the lack of game preview. 

OFFENSE: I like the bye week.  Good things are going to happen.  More reps for the offensive line, more reps for the throws, more time to add a wrinkle or two.  Expect MSU to have a balanced offense that uses quick pass plays to gash the Wildcat defense for big gains.  This has the feeling of a day for Sims and Fowler.

DEFENSE: The MSU defense has to stop multiple quarterbacks that play two different offensive style with Colter using his legs and his arms and Siemian is more of a pocket passer.  With those two quarterbacks is Venric Mark a speedy back that gets the corner and gets the ball upfield.  This will hopefully be a case where their speed is used against them and fumbles occur on contact.  The MSU defense will need those turnovers to slow and put doubt into this offense.

PREDICTION:  Who doesn't like to go bowling?   I fully expect MSU to come out fired up, and score some points early.  For about half of a game we will see how good this offense can  be and that will be enough to win it.  31-21 MSU.  Time to go to work.

Rock Chalk Neglect the Blog.

So i have not posted since last week.  Literally a week.  I have no idea where Pat is.  He might be dead. He might be in Cambodia.  No clue.  But that's ok, because I am here, and I am here to preview this Kansas game.

Tomorrow, MSU takes on Kansas.  The Jayhawks boast a frontcourt that features a 7 footer and a freshman power forward that is 6-8.  I have a feeling both can score more readily in the post than either Payne or Nix.  However, that does not fully matter because that is not exactly how the SPartans will score in this game.  MSU is going to need to run in this game - get the easy transition points.  Kansas is a team that will defend well both down-low and extended out to the perimeter.  Because of this, the Spartans need to limit the amount of turnovers they have in this game.  Nix had 4 turnovers in the game against UConn.   Two of the turnovers I remember; Nix got the ball on a rebound and then brought the ball down-low where a guard ripped the ball out.  Just keep that ball up high and get a shot up. Now that the halfcourt offense is ran through Appling, his ability to set the tempo will critical. Appling should be guarding Elijah Johnson.  Johnson is a senior who lead his team in three pointers made last year.  Along with that, he has a great leaping ability and a quick first step.  Keith needs to not get tired defensively so he can do his own damage on the first offensive side of the ball.  Another factor surrounding Keith and how he can lead MSU to victory is that Travis Trice will likely not be playing in this game.  Trice suffered a concussion in Germany and is doubtful against Kansas.

It is time for Valentine and Kearney to become men.

What matters most in this game is how MSU reacts to the travel time.  Coming off that prime-time game and then coming into another prime-time game can be exhausting, let alone traveling halfway around the world to do it.

So how do I see this game going?  Well it depends on how it starts.  Can MSU play a complete game, score points early?  Sure they can.  Will they?  That certainly is not something that the Spartans have done in the past.  Kansas lost two players to the NBA but returns three seniors.  They did not exactly run away with the game against SE Missouri State which leads me to believe that their offense is struggling right now.  I like MSU in this game after putting together great team defense.  70-62 MSU  (I can also see this going the other way, ugh)

Overcast Saturday

I will admit, I only watched one college football game this past weekend. It was the game I was at, MSU v. Nebraska.  I caught about half of the Alabama LSU game before falling asleep at 11:30  This is what happens when you start a bar crawl the night before at 3:30 pm at  The Peanut Barrel before moving onto The Riv and then PT's. Thank god it wasnt a noon kickoff.

-In the MSU, there were some plays left on the board.  I say go for it on fourth down and two yards to go in the fourth quarter.  But I also think at this point in the season we should stop punting the ball and ALWAYS go for it.  Screw it.  Along with that, one of the worst calls I have seen in sports was made when the game was still very much in doubt. Pass interference when there was no contact.   Some MSU bloggers are saying we should not blame the refs because MSU did not make stops when they needed (read more here, here and here)  but that just does not make sense. MSU is up 3 with under a minute.  Nebraska IS in field goal range but by no means and easy shot on the road and with that cold.  Let's assume for a second that no PI was called.  Now Nebraska is kicking a field goal.  Do they make it?  I don't know.  Do they make it and then win in Overtime?  I don't know.  But what I do know is that when you get the ball at the 5 yard line,  your chances of both making a field goal or scoring a touchdown grow immensely.  Nebraska averaged about 5 yards per carry in this game, that's one carry to get into the endzone from the five.  If you say the refs did not cost us that game you are a buffoon.  In no way are we entitled to win.  But if you are leading in a game with under a minute to play and the refs make a call that was described by 'media in the press box, media who cover MSU and Nebraska. Also, the ESPN announcers. And the ESPN anchor who later referred to the call as “brutal.” And the Big Ten Network analysts. And former NFL vice president of officiating Mike Periera, who made it clear he thought the call was bad.' (joe rexrode mailbag here) Then the refs lost that game for you.  At best, Nebraska did not win it.  I will side with Tom Izzo on this

Onto some images!

 

(something old and something new.  the art museum is really impressive)

(an overcast red cedar river)

 (from a distance)

 (some band)

 (they looked a little too happy)

 

 (there was about 40 minutes straight of kids getting pictures with Sparty)

 (ban practice,  was really fun and cool to watch.  ban parents are pretty mental. that has to be next reality tv show)

 (SPARTY)

 (the man on the right, he came to party. anyone see him wandering around before?)

 (about to start!)

(i maintain we have some of the worst/best students in the country, they are little brothers)

 

Finally I have this video, an unsteady shot of the band marching in.  EVERYONE of them had on gruff sparty faces, that was pretty cool.

Basketball. That is all.

(Ed Note, this was mostly done by pat, I have added my 2 cents in italics.)

After each earning a share of the B1G title last season, Michigan and Michigan state enter the basketball season with high expectations.  The Spartans lose the B1G MVP, All-Everything Draymond Green, Austin Thorton, Brandon Wood, Anthony Ianni while the Wolverines will need to replace the leadership and outside shooting of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass.  The only other departure for the Wolverines is the transfer of Evan Smotcryz.

Both teams add excellent recruiting classes to their squads in 2012-13.  Michigan adds big time recruits Glenn (Tre) Robinson III (Indeed, that's Big Dog's kid) as well as Mitch McGary.  Coming to Ann Arbor along with them will be Nik Stauskas, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht.  MSU adds super recruit Gary Harris as well as...Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costelo and Denzel Valentine.

Let's compare each position between the Spartans and the Wolverines.  These comparisons require some guesswork because lineups and rotations are difficult to determine before the season.  For Michigan, I'm working on the assumption that JB will keep his 4 shooters/1 big offense humming along though word out of practice is that they have been implementing some "big" lineup with some combination of Morgan/Horford/McGary at the 4/5 and Burke/Hardway/Robinson at the 1/2/3.  However, I still think they will revert to old habits and Glenn Robinson III will end up with the majority of minutes at power forward and Hardaway will remain at the 3 (where he has played his entire Michigan career).

PG:  Keith Appling/Travis Trice vs Trey Burke/Spike Albrecht

Michigan State returns Keith Appling at the PG position.  Keith was having a great season early on last year but seemed to really wear down as the season trudged on.  Adding some backcourt help should allow Appling to stay fresher this season.  (I assume) he will be backed up by sophomore Travis Trice.  Trice earned a lot of playing time last season and should be a better than average backup PG.  Trice might be a better point than Appling.  While Appling is a more dynamic player, if that makes sense.  However, what trice has and that Appling does not, is the ability to shoot the three.  Trice netted 40.5% last year while Appling netted 25% (down from 41% his frosh  year.)  I think Trice is going to have a fantastic year as a back up.

Michigan returns Trey Burke, the co B1G freshman of the year (along with Tyler Zeller) and a guy who was maybe the best PG in the league a season ago.  He will need to play heavy minutes this year as he was mostly backed up by Stu Douglass last season.  Incoming freshman Spike Albrecht is a pure PG, that is to say he's short and looks to pass more than he looks to score.  If Spike can defend B1G PG's he will spell Burke for 5-10 minutes per game.  If Spike isn't up to the challenge the Wolverines will rely even more heavily on Burke and may have to turn to freshman guards Caris Levert or Nik Stauskas (though both should be SG/SF type players)

The Wolverines have the edge here as Burke outplayed Appling throughout the season last year.  Burke is probably on the short list of players to watch for in the race for B1G POTY in 2012-13 (along with the aforementioned Zeller) But don't sleep on Appling, he's a high end talent and made some significant strides between his freshman and sophomore years.  Another step forward and he puts himself in the same category as Burke as one of the best PG's in the country.

Edge: Michigan

SG: Gary Harris/Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd vs Nik Stauskas/Caris Levert/Matt Vogrich

Harris is MSU's prized true freshman and should be an impact player immediately.  He'll be the best SG MSU has seen in a long time.  By all accounts he is ready to play immediately and should have no problem being a difference maker. (After watching the exhibtion game, Harris appeared to have the go ahead to shoot threes.  Which is fine because he made a few.  It would make my day if he was a super freshman.  I have no idea what to expect but he was a highly coveted recruit and will start as a true frosh.  Byrd will also get PT as shooting guard. His stroke was off in the first exhibition game.  But it loks really good coming out.  Any sort of consistent threat from three for this MSU team (and really all basketball teams) will make them nearly impossible to guard.  This year, Denzel Valentine should see most of his time at SG.  He is a tall player known for his play making ability.  He is the teams future point.  He had some boneheaded plays in the exhibition, but looked like he belonged as well.   For Michigan here I have a 3 way battle between two true freshman and a 4th year senior.  Vogrich might get the start early on in the season as Beilein turns to his experience, perimeter shooting and defensive hustle.  I expect him to give way to Stauskas at some point.  I'm massively high on the canadian prospect as I think he'll be Jon Diebler 2.0.  He can simply shoot the basketball. Levert has come in for a lot of praise throughout the preseason and could be a guy who surprises with athleticism on the wing.

Despite how high I am on Stauskas I truly believe Gary Harris is an NBA player within 2 years.  While most of the talent here for both teams will be true freshman I believe MSU has the edge at the top with the best player among all the SG's on both teams.

Edge: MSU

SF: Brenden Dawson/Brandon Kearney/ Russell Byrd vs Tim Hardaway Jr/Glenn Robinson III

Dawson was really coming into his own late in the season before suffering an injury.  He returns as MSU's go to wing player.  He'll likely see minutes at the 4 as well.  Along with that Dawson should lead the team in scoring.  I would not be surprised if it is over 20 points per game.  He is wildly athletic around the court and his ability so snatch up rebounds will get him a lot of cheap buckets.  If he happens to develop a 15 footer, look out.  Kearney will play mostly as a defensive specialist.  He still is exceptionally lanky.  Kearney could score in high school and that did not show last year.  Brandon may have the go ahead to start slashing to the hoop. That would go a long way towards helping the sub team.  As previously mentioned, Bryd should see some PT here as well. Tim Hardaway enters his Jr season (see what I did there?) after having a bit of a Sophomore slump last year.  Hardaway's efficiency really decreased as he took on a go-to scorer's role.  Tim remains one of the more talented 3's in the entire Big Ten and comes back with more talent around him than he's ever had while at Michigan.

It's difficult to compare these players as Hardaway is a slasher, scorer and shooting while Dawson is dunker and rebounder.  Dawson in transition is like Spartan basketball porn while Hardaway is as good as any SF in the country when his 3 pointers are falling.

Edge: MSU (slight and depending on the health of Dawson)

PF: Glenn Robinson III/Mitch McGary/Max Beifeldt vs Adreian Payne/Alex Gauna/Kenny Kaminski

Where Gary Harris is MSU's recruiting gem, I truly believe Glenn Robinson III is that guy for Michigan. Michigan hasn't seen a guy with Robinson's athletic ability since Brent Petway and that is a bad comparison because Robinson can actually play basketball.  I think Robinson has the best chance of any Wolverine to be a superstar and a lottery pick in the NBA.  It may take him a little bit to earn all that lofty praise I'm giving him but all indications are that he's a special talent.   Mitch McGary was the #2 prospect in the entire nation at one point last season before taking a plummet to the 4 star/5 star fringe.  He comes in as a high energy player who will provide rebounding and a spark in the hustle department.  I expect him to earn minutes as the year goes on and to play a lot when/if Michigan goes "big".

With Payne at PF, and Nix at center, MSU will struggle to guard a lot of larger  4 spot players on a given night.  Payne, has been able to get the best of some low post players, (think every OSU game last year) but has also been boxed out by similar players.  Payne has  been a bit of a head scratcher for me.  He was a 5 star recruit that never seemed to developed a low post move.  If Payne spent his summer working on a 6 foot jumper and a hook shot, wed be walking into the national championship game. Unfortunately, after watching the first exhibition game, it appears Payne left off from last year.  Payne has a lot of ability in an uptempo game, but once it becomes half court, he seems to over think it.  What can make up for that though is if Payne is constantly crashing the boards and running down the floor.  We need is length and athleticism.  Guana is nearly the exact opposite.  Guana can hit jump shots but seems to always miss the rebound right next him.  Alex is also half the athlete as Payne but appears to have twice the post moves.   Gauna looked good in the first exhibition game, that was promising.

Edge: Michigan (though unproven) I will go ahead an disagree with this.  Solely because none of your players have played college basketball before.  And Payne isn't dog food.  Edge MSU.

 

 

(just do this ALLLL the time)

 
C: Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford vs Derrick Nix/Matt Costello

Derrick Nix returns to anchor the Spartans in the middle.  Nix has had problems on the defensive end and with weight issues throughout his career but he can really score the basketball.  When he's on his game he's one of the better low post scorers in the B1G. (Nix and Payne are mostly interchangeable between the 4 and 5, depending on the team.  They will both play both at times.)

Jordan Morgan enters his reds
hirt Junior season after two very productive years.  Morgan isn't the type of guy who you give the ball to on a regular basis to provide offense but he gets points in transition, does a good job on the glass and shoots a very high percentage.  Before his injury last season Jon Horford was usurping Morgan's minutes and seems to have the higher upside of the two.  Expect both to be significant contributors this season and hold down the center spot well for Michigan.  Mitch McGary could also see time at the 5 spot.  Michigan also has Blake McClimans.

Edge: Even

These seem like pretty even squads.  Let's take a look at the statistics from last season:

PPG:
OPPG:
Rebounding Margin:
Turnovers:

By possession metrics:

Michigan got bigger and more athletic and should see a benefit in their rebounding numbers but may also see a drop in the 3 point shooting %.

MSU loses a great star in Draymond Green and will need to find players to create offense and fill the leadership vacuum left by his departure.  As is typically true of Izzo coached teams I expect this year's Spartans may start a little slowly due to the new faces and distribution of offensive possessions but should round into form by B1G play and be ready to make a run in March.

Both teams should compete with Indiana and Ohio State for the B1G championship and I've learned to never count out Bo Ryan's Badgers.

Reduce Reuse Recycle Recap

Finally a win.  A win that MSU closed out.  That was nice to see.  I thought the MSU offense played well enough.  Obviously, it was not a great offensive show, but they were able to move the ball at times before ultimately doing something boneheaded.  Joe Rexode touches on that with his Monday Mail Bag.

 -I watched a good portion of the PSU/OSU game.  PSU played a solid game, but seemed to abandon the run game.  I think that ultimately did them in.  Not sure if Belton was injured or what.  Braxton was impressive in tearing apart a very good PSU defense.  That just might show how good the MSU defense actually is more than any other stat.

-From there, it was time to watch the um/Nebraska game.  I got to tell Pat about Denard's injury over the phone, that was about the most gratifying thing I have got to do this football season. Without Robinson, um was punchless.  The game wasn't really interesting outside of a few drives and seeing what um could do without Denard.  um fans will be pleased to know that Robinson will be the starter this weekend.

-To close out the game, Maxwell made one great pass after another and Bell was able to bounce around for 4-6 yard gains.  I think that our receivers may have finally turned a corner.  There was no Burbridge in this game, but that's OK.  Fowler is the man, and he showed it at times in this game.  Also, Lippet showed why I have been so high on him, from his sky high grab to his juke to the one yard line.  Personally, I really enjoyed seeing Thomas get some open field to run in.  A fumble certainly wasn't pleasant, but man, I would not want to tackle him.  The defense was really stout in this game as well.  MSU was able to hold Wisconsin to 19 yards rushing (net) and 190 yards total.  Gholston finally had a game that MSU has needed all year with 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack.  Along with that, one hit knocked Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave out of for the season with a broken clavicle.

This play below, I remember seeing and screaming at the T.V.  It did not get called.

(mary langenfeld, uspresswire. via twitter of chris vannini)

I still don't think that the Wisconsin defense is that great.  One play in particular stuck out in my head on a pass deflection to a mostly wide open Bell.  Other than that, I think MSU mostly killed their own drives.  Don't get me wrong, they are a good defense, but the B1G features a handful of better defense's.

Next week MSU has Nebraska at home.  A game I will be at.  Maybe I can get some pictures from the game and any sort of EL related activities I do on here.  Sound good?

Singing Tough - A Prediction

As Pat noted in the comments, I forgot to get my preview up.  Blame it on the rain.  Or staying out way later than anticipated. Today MSU is playing in a game labeled as a rivalry.  However, MSU and Wisconsin will not meet again for 4 years, unless they are in the B1G championship game.

OFFENSE:  Same story different day.  Just like every game I say, MSU needs to get the ball early and score on that first drive.  The crowd in Wisconsin is gonna be as loud as they have been all year.  Halloween weekend.  I do not see Bell having a good game in this one.  But MSU will look to get him going early and too often. MSU will need to go airborne to win this game and score points.  I like the matchups our receivers have against the Wisconsin secondary.  Wisconsin has not been too impressive defensively and Maxwell should look to get Sims going early.  Can our re-re-re-re-re-revamped line hang tough?

(the new starting offensive line)

DEFENSE:  L-I-V-I-N that's what our defense needs to do.  Just keep on keeping on.  Whatever else you can say.  There have been some writings about the defense, that there is potential for a divided locker room.  With the defense playing so well and the offense playing so poorly.  I don't see that happening, and I don't see the defense letting up.   Gholston will play his best game of the year and our defense will do a good job of limiting Montee Ball. 

PREDICTION:  The story here isn't how well our defense can play it's how many points can our offense score?  Right now, there is no reason to believe they will score any points.  Call it 20-13 Wisconsin.

The State of State

Right now, I cannot even pretend to have anything to be happy about for the Spartans.  OK...OK, I can be happy about the defense.  We have the best defense in the B1G.  We hold the Michigan offense without a touchdown, and lose though.  This makes me very sad.  So where are our Spartans right now?

Well, to cover the obvious stuff, MSU is 4-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference.  Winning out would put MSU at 8-4 and 5-3 in the conference.  After the first half of the season ended, I projected this is where we would end up. 

Right now, the offense is playing like a team that's uneven.  At times our running game looks good, at time our passing game looks good, at times our blocking looks good.  Rarely do they all synch up together.  I will contribute a lot of this to the injured offensive line.  The lack of continuity has made it hard to develop a pattern and trust in the trenches.  I has been great at developing younger players though.  So look out 2013!  The line play dictates a lot of what you can do in the run game, Bell has managed a solid season with some highlight reel plays.  He seems to get three yards every time he touches the ball.  The problem is, he has not been gashing defenses for HUGE chunks of yards.  This could be a product of being used too much.  After injuring his knee against UM, Bell called to come out, he did not, got the ball for the next carry, and promptly stumbled after the handoff.  We need Caper to get the ball sometimes.  Lastly for offense, once the receivers starting dropping the ball nothing good could  happen.  Now that they are catching the ball and making athletic plays doing it, we might finally see some points scored.

A lot has been said about the defense and their inability to close out games.  But when you hold teams to 12, 19, 16, you need to win those games.  I don't care if you gave up one last drive at the end, you stopped plenty more before that.  The worst thing I can see from this is that defense gives up its edge.  MSU can rely on it's defense for only so long.  I cannot find a lot of words for our defense, they have done a great job all year.  A few more turnovers would be nice, but I will take so few touchdowns allowed. 

Right now, MSU has a huge game looming against Wisconsin.  This is the game where blocking, running and passing need to link up and show some muscle.  After that we have Nebraska at home (which I will be at).  Go 2-0 over these games and get to the bye (off?) week.  To me, MSU is still a bowl team, it would be a real shame to not make one.  So that is where MSU is right now, a lot of unbalanced performances from the offense, solid play from the defense, and a deflated blogger. 

Mustache Wars

44-13.  On the road in West Lafayette.  409 total yards for Michigan to just 213 for the Boilermakers.  Michigan is to Purdue as Alabama is to Michigan.  The only statistical edge Purdue had in the game was mustache awesomeness.

Glorious be thy stache

Denard Robinson remains the best runner in the Big Ten and the Michigan defense looks as though it may even be improved over last season's stout unit.  I haven't felt this good about the Wolverine's Rose Bowl chances since Appalachian State sauntered into the Big House.

Yes, I went there.  Michigan is the favorite to make the Rose Bowl.

The remaining schedule:

Illinois
MSU
@Nebraska
@Minnesota
Northwestern
Iowa
@OSU

Things could go south if they lose in two weeks to the Spartans and of course there is a lot of football left to be played but at 3-2 Michigan looks like a team destined for no worse than 8-4 and the team that is in the driver's seat to make the B1G championship game from the Legends division where they will face off against either Purdue or Wisconsin.  That sounds like a pretty nice opportunity to me.


Elsewhere in College Football

I saw the highlights of the Penn State - Northwestern game.  Seems like a great comeback win for the Nittany Lions.  Page me in 8 years when they are relevant again.  Still looks like a 7-5ish team to me.

I LOL'd to the Spartans score at halftime but figured they would pull it out.  Got to see bits and pieces of the 2nd half and it looked extremely encouraging for MSU.  Having only watched the 2nd half and seeing how completely dominant the Spartans were I'm guessing the first half was an exercise in frustration for Tbone.   I've been telling anyone who will listen how much I loved Aaron Burbridge as a prospect and whatdoyaknow he gets the start and is already MSU's best receiver.  +1 for pjh's recruiting obsession paying dividends in knowing thangs.

Quick rundown of the Big Ten

1. OSU - Anyone else feel sick to their stomach after seeing all the love the Buckeyes are getting on espn.com?  They deserve the #1 ranking here but they simply are not exceedingly better than everyone else.  They easily could have lost to the Spartans.

2. Michigan - IMO the clear favorites to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

3. MSU - They haven't really looked impressive for any extended stretch this season but who are you putting above them?

4. Nebraska - Clearly flawed on defense and not dominant enough on offense to overcome it. 

5. PSU - Moving up my rankings because they keep winning but I think they'd lose to all four teams above them on this list.

6. Wisconsin - They have issues but they are still your Leaders division favorites.

7. Northwestern - That defense is pitiful.  They are scary on offense and will beat some good teams this season.

8. Purdue - The hype comes before the massive letdown for Danny Hope and co.

9. Iowa - They lost to a bad Central Michigan team two weeks ago...

10. Minnesota - Got beaten soundly by a bad Iowa team.

11. Indiana - Offense is one of the best in the Big Ten but defense is probably the league's worst single unit.

12. Illinois - HaLOL

Week 5 Re-Cap

Well another week has gone by.  And there are some truths this week out of college football.  Truth one, Michigan had a bye week. Truth two, I wish the NHL wasn't locked out. 

-I watched the Penn State game at a Penn State bar here.  The Penn State defense looks solid enough.  They had no problem locking down Nathan Scheelhaase. Mike Mauti is the best defender in the B1G. He is a game changing line backer, able to stop the run, track down scrambling quarterbacks, and cover receivers.  Along with that, Allen Robinson is the type of receiver every B1G team wishes they had.  He can get up and grab the ball in the air - once he has it, Robinson has no problem making defenders miss in the open.  I have watched a lot of Penn State this year they look solid. 

-For the Wisconsin/Nebraska game, I was not really sure what to make of that.  Montee Ball had 90 yards and 3 touchdowns but it took 32 carries to achieve that.  The defense as a whole for Wisconsin looked really poor.  Does that mean that the Nebraska offense is really potent?  They are no slouches that's for sure.  Martinez out rushed Ball and Burkhead had 86 yards on only 18 carries.

-Finally, MSU vs. OSU.  There were some positives to take away from this game.  The first is that the defense played really, they got some takeaways from a very good team.  They were hold Ohio State to long spurts with little offense.  The passing game made some strides as well.  Lippett did not look totally lost, Maxwell did not turn the ball over and Kings could be developing into a stud receiver. Of course there were some real negatives as well.  The running game was non existent.  With that, the offensive line looks really weak as well.  Travis Jackson broke his leg and will miss the remaining of the season.   Coupled with the fact that Fou Fonoti is also gone for what should be most or all of the year and suddenly the offensive line is our weakest part of the team. With the pass game making some strides, they also continued to drop really easy passes.  Fowler is not getting it done, the drops appear to be in his head.

I was a bit disappointed that we lost this game.  There was no reason to lose it. As my preview pinted out, we just need to score points. 16 wont win you a lot of games.  Of course there was also the Miller fumble that looked like a sure fumble recovery to touchdown. Instead of getting 7 points, we settled for 3.  What a game changer that was.

I know a lot of people think my previous post was over reacting but when you take our season so far, you can't really count any game at this point as a sure win.  Even if our two losses were against ranked teams.  More on that tomorrow.

 

Little Caesars

Hey Spartan fans, I hope you like pizza!

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction

So here we are, another sneaking up on me.  The best game in the NCAA is at East Lansing as Ohio State pays the Spartans a visit.  Along with that, College Game Day is there out front of Beaumont Tower.

OFFENSE:  So what can I say that I have not already?  Michigan State knows what it needs to do and that is establish Bell as an offensive threat.  Ohio State should come in expecting that and they will want to make MSU a one dimensional team.  Because of this, Maxwell will need to continue to be on point.  However, the bigger concern will be what the wide receivers can do with that ball.  Will they drop it?  WIll they fumble it?  Will they be able to lay a block for the running game?  Look for MSU to try to establish the passing game to let OSU know they can indeed pass it.  I expect Sims to have a big game and for one of the wide receivers to step up - just one. This Ohio State defense is the last ranked defense in the B1G right now so MSU needs to get it going, get confidence going early and put points on the board.

DEFENSE:  The Spartan defense needs to remain stout.  Braxton Miller is a dynamic quarterback with an incredible ability to run the ball.  Along with that, his wide receivers have been good, making plays down field, catching ball and creating a space for Braxton to run.  To throw him off his game, look for the defense to hide blitzes in an attempt to get their hands on Braxton early and often.  From there, containment will be key.  Dennard and Adams have had some poor showings lately in the defensive backfield, they will need to bring their A game today. So will the outside linebackers.  With Braxton's size and speed, Allen and Norman will be active on the side lines.  If MSU can limit the big plays out of Braxton that should go a long way towards defeating the Buckeyes.

The offense really needs to score points.  If the defense is on the field all day it will be a long game for the Spartans.  Very simply, the offense needs to score.  I cant break it down any more than that. With the way things have gone this year for the Spartans I expect a lot of fire out the Spartans especially those from the state of Ohio. Call this one 24-21 MSU

Ranking the B1G

While it's approaching Big East levels of (dis)respect, it's still the conference that contains Michigan and MSU.  Here's how I think the league shakes out to date:


1. OSU - They deserve this spot for being at 4-0 with a victory over Cal.  Still, they haven't looked like world beaters in any of those victories.  This Saturday will tell us a lot more about the Buckeyes.   I wrote a couple weeks ago that a win in East Lansing and the Buckeyes may be looking at running the table...and I threw up in my mouth a little.

2. Northwestern - The best resume of any B1G team, but is it filled with lies?  Their defense may begin to leak in B1G play.  If they can hold teams down on D their offense can win them a lot of games.

3. Nebraska - I'm going to forgive the road loss to UCLA and give this squad the benefit of the doubt.  Right now probably the very slight favorites in the Legends division.

4. Michigan - Only 2-2 but have clearly faced the toughest schedule in the conference.  Would any other B1G team be better than 2-2 with Michigan's schedule? I say no, though maybe OSU could win @ND.

5. MSU - The best defense and RB in the conference could carry the Spartans to the B1G championship.  That passing game certainly makes Spartan's nervous though.

6. Wisconsin - The offense has regressed tremendously without Russell Wilson but I think they have played the second most difficult league slate to date.  It's only because Oregon State was so bad last season that Wisconsin's loss seemed like a big upset when in fact Oregon State is a pretty good team this season.

7. Purdue - The Boilermakers have a legitimate case to be higher here.  Their defense is much improved and they have a very stout defensive line. The Purdue offense seems to have some cohesiveness for the first time since Danny Hope has been coaching there.

8. Minnesota - 4-0 but haven't faced much of a test to start the season.  A much improved team over last season but probably still a year or 2 away from contending for the championship game.  Need Marquis Gray back and healthy.

9. Penn State - If they lose this week on the road at Illinois it's an all out spiral.  They need a W this week and then can look at games with Iowa and IU has likely victories.

10. Iowa - Their poor recruiting on the defensive side of the ball is finally bearing it's ugly head for the Hawkeyes.  Is this Kirk Ferentz's worst Iowa team?  A bowl game looks like a lofty goal this season.

11  Indiana - Hoosiers are better than last year but will likely struggle to win a B1G game this season.

12. Illinois - A train wreck under their first year coach.  Maybe Zooker didn't leave as much talent behind as everyone thought?

And because I like stats here's a quick breakdown of where all the B1G teams rank nationally in their respective units (remember 4 games strength of schedule fluctuates wildly) I'm not sure if you can take any real meaning from any of this but I was surprised by the teams at the bottom of the conference on both offense and defense.

Total Offense

Nebraska 6th
Ohio State 36th
Northwestern 45th
Minnesota 46th
Michigan State 47th
Indiana 50th
Michigan 59th
Penn State 65th
Iowa 76th
Purdue 77th
Illinois 85th
Wisconsin 96th

Wisconsin is currently last in the conference in total offense...What a difference a year makes!

Total Defense

MSU 6th
Purdue 17th
Minnesota 21st
Iowa 25th
Wisconsin 31st
Illinois 35th
Michigan 37th
Nebraska 51st
Penn State 54th
Indiana 49th
Northwestern 60th
Ohio State 71st

Looks like it may be a low scoring year in the B1G.  Much better rankings here than in the offensive categories.  Is Ohio State really that poor defensively?

Week 4 Blahs

This is a lot like the dog days of summer.  You know that scene in Bruce Almighty where "Bruce" is controlling "Evans" mouth?  aslkjdfaosfwjljalsflk sfjsaljfnvlkanfasf

 

(http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/bruce-almighty-gif)

That is how I am going to describe the MSU performance over EMU. Or as my dad pointed out, the Emu's.  Get it?  No? It's a play on words. 

There was not a lot of positive to take out of it, other than our defense played OK and that Bell and Sims are the only thing keeping us from being 1-3.  MSU looks like the 4th best team in the B1G right now.  Behind OSU, Northwestern, Nebraska.  Penn State might be as good as us as well, they can certainly pass the ball 100% better.  Michigan I would put right about next to us as well. 

-University of Michigan (no the) did not fair any better than MSU did against Notre Dame.  Denard Robinson looked lost (MSU wide receiver level lost).  Three of those picks were just plain bad.  From what I can tell, Denard had room to scramble more on some of those picks, and maybe should have.  Maybe that is the problem with trying to be a "Michigan" quarterback.  Just be Denard, the best player in the B1G.  Instead of Denard, the less good version of Braxton Miller (I went there).  Along with that, the UM line did not live up to what it was once billed to be.  That has a lot to do with the Notre Dame front seven being full on legit.  Being a mostly outsider looking in on UM, every time I see UM struggle on offense, I think: why don't they just let Denard run the ball and get the juices flowing?

-Seriosuly though, Ohio State?  Theye might be the biggest enigma in the B1G even though they appear, right now, to be the best team.  For a team that was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the B1G, they love giving up points to wildly inferior opponents.  Along with that, the offense is all Braxton.  Take away his gashing run plays, and they are much less dynamic.  I will break things if MSU loses next week.  

-Penn State looked good against Temple.  Temple is a solid Big East team (better than Eastern).  Allen Robinson, looks like the best wide out in the B1G.  McGloin still makes some bone headed passes/attempted passes but seems a lot more accurate when throwing down field. The running game is a bit up in the air right now. However, if the defense finally has turned it on, they could very well win the Leaders.

That was all the B1G I managed to watch. 

Did I mention that CBS is ripping off what Pat already wrote?   No seriously, Pat wrote this last Thursday.  Now if only we could get the readers they do.  

Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction

Normally I would have no problem playing EMU.  But this Saturday I want to demolish them.  I want Bell to run for 250 Yards and 5 Touchdowns. And after every one of the touchdowns.  I want him to point to Mike Hart and do this.

 

Call me a littler brother, whatever.  Fuck Mike Hart.  Outside of that, I have had a lot of fun in Ypsilanti.  Of course the game is in East Lansing, so I assume, I hope, that Hart will be booed loudly and audibly over the TV. 

OFFENSE:  Ugh, where to begin.  Right now, MSU is missing what Fou Fonoti can do as a right tackle.  With that, MSU needs to buck up on the offensive line and and push the Eagles around.   Maxwell needs to continue to make passes on his receivers and those receivers needs to CATCH THE BALL.  It is as simple as that.  MSU needs a confidence booster on offense.  Of course, the last time we had one those nothing good happened the next week.  I will state this again, MSU is missing Fou Fonoti already. However, I expect Bell to establish himself early and Maxwell to work passes from all angles.  The offense should stay in even after the game is over to get the extra reps.

DEFENSE:  In this game, MSU needs to shut it down.  Adams and Dennard will be a factor as EMU will need to pass to keep pace early in this game.  Gholston should overpower the Eagles offensive line and feed in the backfield (I might need this to happen to protect my psyche for the rest of the season.)  With Adams and Dennard laying a blanket in the secondary a defensive touchdown looms large in this game.

PREDICTION:  This game should see the Spartan offense play with a lot of fire.  Along with that, there will be perfect execution in this game.  The Spartan team needs to play with a purpose on both sides of the ball and it will.  Of course this is a short prediction because of the score I think will happen 45-6 MSU.

Define "Smiling"

Does anyone know what that saying means?  "Irish Eyes are Smiling"? They must have been smiling in that way people only smile when feeling a knowing, psychotic rage after witnessing miraculous Michigan come from behind victories in the final seconds of the last three matchups in this rivalry.

If you've read anything on the internet about the Michigan - Notre Dame matchup this weekend you have heard one fact reiterated again and again: Denard Robinson owns the Irish.  This, of course, is true.  From his Heisman like pose in the game in 2010 to his 4th quarter heroics last year, Shoelace has been downright cruel to Rudy lovers everywhere.  Can he do it again?  Please, Mr Robinson, Irish tears warm the cockles of my heart.

Mercifully, after waiting through spring, summer, fall and three football games finally we get some concrete information on the Wolverines and maybe how they matchup with the Spartans.  I'm sure MSU fans will have a keen eye on this game to help gauge where their team is at as well.  Overmatched Eastern Michigan probably won't provide much opportunity to learn more about your beloved Spartans.

I fully expect Notre Dame to come out gunning for Denard in an attempt to shut down his running opportunities.  Denard will need to beat the Irish through the air for Michigan to win this game.  Despite Michigan's defense having some question marks, the Irish offense doesn't seem to be a juggernaut.  The matchups in this game appear to be strength on strength (UM O vs Irish D) and ? on ? (UM D vs Irish O).

I'm torn on making a pick in this game.  If the game was in Ann Arbor I'd be confident in picking Michigan, but winning in South Bend is a tall order...

Yet how can a Michigan fan (or any football fan) pick against dreadlocks dancing in the dark beneath the lights of famous old Notre Dame stadium under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus and torturing Irish souls one last glorious time?

Michigan 28-27

In Defense of the Big Ten

The national media is having a field day slamming the B1G, with a lot of pundits claiming this is the worst they have ever seen the conference.  Let's take a closer look with a team by team breakdown and the losses the league has suffered and what we can really learn about the conference from those games.

Michigan

It all started with my beloved Wolverines getting taken to the woodshed by Alabama.  Michigan was overrated as the #8 team in the country and hyped up heading into the showdown in Dallas.  This game proved that Michigan is not on the elite level with Alabama, though there are few teams that can stack up to the Crimson Tide.  Who can compete with them?  Maybe LSU, Florida State, Oklahoma, Oregon...anyone else?  Alabama has since obliterated an Arkansas team that was a preseason top 5 pick by many, the same Arkansas team that lost the previous week to UL Monroe.  Who would you pick in a matchup between the Razorbacks and the Wolverines?

Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been a huge dissapointment to begin the season, but before Russell Wilson was Wisconsin ever a dominant non conference team?  I seem to remember them neeed a missed FG to beat Cal Poly a few years ago and some near misses versus Fresno State and UNLV as well.  They lost to an underrated Oregon State team and nearly lost to Utah State.  Everyone jumped on Wisconsin for the near loss against Utah State but this Utah St team will finish the year with no less than 9 wins and has already defeated a team from the media darling Pac 12 in Utah.

The Badgers certainly have issues offensively but I still believe they are the favorites in the Leaders division and probably the favorites to make the Rose Bowl.

Nebraska

The Corn Huskers lost on the road to a vastly improved UCLA team.  This same UCLA team was even in the Pac 12 championship game last year.  It's not easy winning on the road across the country against a fired up foe playing inspired for a new coach.  Nebraska is just about what they were last season, a flawed team but a top 20 team nonetheless.

OSU

They struggled at home with a mediocre CAL squad but they did in fact pull out the victory.  Urban Meyer has a 3-0 record for the Buckeyes and this is legitimately a top 10 team.

MSU

The loss to Notre Dame was ugly, but there needs to be some credit awarded for defeating Boise State.  MSU lost big to ND last season and ended the year defeating SEC darling Georgia in a bowl game.  Don't write off the Spartans.

Northwestern

The only team in the country to have three victories over teams from major conferences defeating a Big East team, an ACC team and an SEC team.  Their win over Vanderbilt got no love from the media even though everyone was lauding Vanderbilt as a team that would give the top teir SEC teams fits throughout the season.

Iowa

They lost to Iowa State.  Don't they lose to Iowa State 2 out of every 3 seasons anyway?  What's so different about this year?

Illinois

Their complete annihilation at the hands of of Arizona State was a bad loss but they were also playing without their starting QB and have a new coaching staff playing in their first road test of the season across the country.  They are also Illinois, did anyone expect them to be good?

Purdue

2-1 with a close call in a FG loss to a very solid Notre Dame team.  This team seems like a fringe top 25 team to me.

Minnesota

They are a lot better than last year at least!

Indiana

Ha Indiana

PSU

Admittedly a tire fire but there's not much they can do about that these days.


For all the national media claiming the Big Ten is the worst they've ever seen it, I think it is a pretty typical year for the league with the exception that Michigan played one of the country's best teams in a nationally teleivised game to start the year and got embrarrassed.  Beyond that the Big Ten clearly has no elite teams that can win a national title but they have a lot of solid teams that are going to battle and whoever comes out of the scrum will be a worthy Rose Bowl representative.

The Barometer Game

In my last post I indicated that we know very little about the Wolverines in 2012. (other than not being in the same class as Alabama)  This week provides a great chance to find out a lot more about where Michigan is at right now and where they are likely to finish at the end of this season.

A nice big disclaimer here that I do not believe in the transitive property of sports.  If Michigan goes out and beats the Irish that doesn't mean anything definitive about the outcome in their showdown with the Spartans.   This is especially true in college sports where emotion and match ups greatly affect the outcome of games.   Still, a win in South Bend would have Michigan fans believing a Big Ten championship is once again the expectation.  A lopsided loss and the Wolverines may be staring down a mediocre season in 2012.

Here's some questions that may be answered Saturday night...

1. Can Michigan's defensive line hold up?

They could not against Alabama, got cut against Air Force (but did OK) and then played UMass lol.  This week is a true barometer for the D-line, get blown off the ball by the Irish and it's going to be a long season.  Hold down the Irish rushing attack and things will be looking good for the Wolverines.

2. Can anyone other than Denard run the football?

This is mostly an offensive line issue, but Michigan needs to establish a rushing attack outside of Denard's legs.  Toussaint had a decent game against UMass, but that was UMass lol.  Michigan's offensive line has provided Denard with solid pass protection this season but needs to do better in run blocking and this game will tell us a lot about where our expectations should be in that area going forward this season.

3. Will a linebacker please step up?

Jake Ryan has been Michigan's best defensive player but the other starting linebackers (Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan) have seen their playing time usurped by true freshman James Ross and Joe Boldon.  Morgan has been dinged up and sat out the UMass lol game but is expected back this week.  It will be interesting to see if Michigan goes with their veterans in this game or if a switch to the freshman is in the cards for now and throughout the season.  These two positions (MLB and WLB) are open and waiting for someone to sieze the spot, let's see if anyone can do that this week.

Heisman Thoughts

This is also a key game for Denard Robinson as I believe he still has a chance to win the Heisman trophy.  The Alabama loss certainly stung his candidacy, but the season is long and other frontrunners have also had setbacks.   Another huge performance in South Bend will see him shoot back up into the conversation here.  A poor performance and a loss will see Denard out of the discussion for good.

Another interesting little thought about the Heisman is the hype that Braxton Miller is building and how it affects Denard's candidacy.  If OSU enters the Michigan game with 9 or 10 wins and Miller is consistently in the Heisman discussion throughout the season it will provide a huge opportunity for the winner of The Game in Columbus.  Say Denard is in the top five at that point and goes on the road and outplays Miller to clinch a berth in the B1G championship game, that would have a massive impact on Heisman voters.  Still a long ways to go, but a scenario I could see potentially playing out.


FEI and other Metrics

We are only three games into the season so all statistical metrics have less validity but are interesting nonetheless.  Here's a link if you need a quick brush-up on FEI.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Michigan is #49 in FEI
MSU is #21
(ND is #6, yikes)

Michigan is 42nd in Total Offense and 33rd in Scoring O
MSU is 60th in Total offense and 103rd in Scoring O

Michigan is 59th in Total D and 77th in Scoring D
MSU is 13th in Total D and 16th in Scoring D