Basketball. That is all.

(Ed Note, this was mostly done by pat, I have added my 2 cents in italics.)

After each earning a share of the B1G title last season, Michigan and Michigan state enter the basketball season with high expectations.  The Spartans lose the B1G MVP, All-Everything Draymond Green, Austin Thorton, Brandon Wood, Anthony Ianni while the Wolverines will need to replace the leadership and outside shooting of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass.  The only other departure for the Wolverines is the transfer of Evan Smotcryz.

Both teams add excellent recruiting classes to their squads in 2012-13.  Michigan adds big time recruits Glenn (Tre) Robinson III (Indeed, that's Big Dog's kid) as well as Mitch McGary.  Coming to Ann Arbor along with them will be Nik Stauskas, Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht.  MSU adds super recruit Gary Harris as well as...Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costelo and Denzel Valentine.

Let's compare each position between the Spartans and the Wolverines.  These comparisons require some guesswork because lineups and rotations are difficult to determine before the season.  For Michigan, I'm working on the assumption that JB will keep his 4 shooters/1 big offense humming along though word out of practice is that they have been implementing some "big" lineup with some combination of Morgan/Horford/McGary at the 4/5 and Burke/Hardway/Robinson at the 1/2/3.  However, I still think they will revert to old habits and Glenn Robinson III will end up with the majority of minutes at power forward and Hardaway will remain at the 3 (where he has played his entire Michigan career).

PG:  Keith Appling/Travis Trice vs Trey Burke/Spike Albrecht

Michigan State returns Keith Appling at the PG position.  Keith was having a great season early on last year but seemed to really wear down as the season trudged on.  Adding some backcourt help should allow Appling to stay fresher this season.  (I assume) he will be backed up by sophomore Travis Trice.  Trice earned a lot of playing time last season and should be a better than average backup PG.  Trice might be a better point than Appling.  While Appling is a more dynamic player, if that makes sense.  However, what trice has and that Appling does not, is the ability to shoot the three.  Trice netted 40.5% last year while Appling netted 25% (down from 41% his frosh  year.)  I think Trice is going to have a fantastic year as a back up.

Michigan returns Trey Burke, the co B1G freshman of the year (along with Tyler Zeller) and a guy who was maybe the best PG in the league a season ago.  He will need to play heavy minutes this year as he was mostly backed up by Stu Douglass last season.  Incoming freshman Spike Albrecht is a pure PG, that is to say he's short and looks to pass more than he looks to score.  If Spike can defend B1G PG's he will spell Burke for 5-10 minutes per game.  If Spike isn't up to the challenge the Wolverines will rely even more heavily on Burke and may have to turn to freshman guards Caris Levert or Nik Stauskas (though both should be SG/SF type players)

The Wolverines have the edge here as Burke outplayed Appling throughout the season last year.  Burke is probably on the short list of players to watch for in the race for B1G POTY in 2012-13 (along with the aforementioned Zeller) But don't sleep on Appling, he's a high end talent and made some significant strides between his freshman and sophomore years.  Another step forward and he puts himself in the same category as Burke as one of the best PG's in the country.

Edge: Michigan

SG: Gary Harris/Denzel Valentine/Russell Byrd vs Nik Stauskas/Caris Levert/Matt Vogrich

Harris is MSU's prized true freshman and should be an impact player immediately.  He'll be the best SG MSU has seen in a long time.  By all accounts he is ready to play immediately and should have no problem being a difference maker. (After watching the exhibtion game, Harris appeared to have the go ahead to shoot threes.  Which is fine because he made a few.  It would make my day if he was a super freshman.  I have no idea what to expect but he was a highly coveted recruit and will start as a true frosh.  Byrd will also get PT as shooting guard. His stroke was off in the first exhibition game.  But it loks really good coming out.  Any sort of consistent threat from three for this MSU team (and really all basketball teams) will make them nearly impossible to guard.  This year, Denzel Valentine should see most of his time at SG.  He is a tall player known for his play making ability.  He is the teams future point.  He had some boneheaded plays in the exhibition, but looked like he belonged as well.   For Michigan here I have a 3 way battle between two true freshman and a 4th year senior.  Vogrich might get the start early on in the season as Beilein turns to his experience, perimeter shooting and defensive hustle.  I expect him to give way to Stauskas at some point.  I'm massively high on the canadian prospect as I think he'll be Jon Diebler 2.0.  He can simply shoot the basketball. Levert has come in for a lot of praise throughout the preseason and could be a guy who surprises with athleticism on the wing.

Despite how high I am on Stauskas I truly believe Gary Harris is an NBA player within 2 years.  While most of the talent here for both teams will be true freshman I believe MSU has the edge at the top with the best player among all the SG's on both teams.

Edge: MSU

SF: Brenden Dawson/Brandon Kearney/ Russell Byrd vs Tim Hardaway Jr/Glenn Robinson III

Dawson was really coming into his own late in the season before suffering an injury.  He returns as MSU's go to wing player.  He'll likely see minutes at the 4 as well.  Along with that Dawson should lead the team in scoring.  I would not be surprised if it is over 20 points per game.  He is wildly athletic around the court and his ability so snatch up rebounds will get him a lot of cheap buckets.  If he happens to develop a 15 footer, look out.  Kearney will play mostly as a defensive specialist.  He still is exceptionally lanky.  Kearney could score in high school and that did not show last year.  Brandon may have the go ahead to start slashing to the hoop. That would go a long way towards helping the sub team.  As previously mentioned, Bryd should see some PT here as well. Tim Hardaway enters his Jr season (see what I did there?) after having a bit of a Sophomore slump last year.  Hardaway's efficiency really decreased as he took on a go-to scorer's role.  Tim remains one of the more talented 3's in the entire Big Ten and comes back with more talent around him than he's ever had while at Michigan.

It's difficult to compare these players as Hardaway is a slasher, scorer and shooting while Dawson is dunker and rebounder.  Dawson in transition is like Spartan basketball porn while Hardaway is as good as any SF in the country when his 3 pointers are falling.

Edge: MSU (slight and depending on the health of Dawson)

PF: Glenn Robinson III/Mitch McGary/Max Beifeldt vs Adreian Payne/Alex Gauna/Kenny Kaminski

Where Gary Harris is MSU's recruiting gem, I truly believe Glenn Robinson III is that guy for Michigan. Michigan hasn't seen a guy with Robinson's athletic ability since Brent Petway and that is a bad comparison because Robinson can actually play basketball.  I think Robinson has the best chance of any Wolverine to be a superstar and a lottery pick in the NBA.  It may take him a little bit to earn all that lofty praise I'm giving him but all indications are that he's a special talent.   Mitch McGary was the #2 prospect in the entire nation at one point last season before taking a plummet to the 4 star/5 star fringe.  He comes in as a high energy player who will provide rebounding and a spark in the hustle department.  I expect him to earn minutes as the year goes on and to play a lot when/if Michigan goes "big".

With Payne at PF, and Nix at center, MSU will struggle to guard a lot of larger  4 spot players on a given night.  Payne, has been able to get the best of some low post players, (think every OSU game last year) but has also been boxed out by similar players.  Payne has  been a bit of a head scratcher for me.  He was a 5 star recruit that never seemed to developed a low post move.  If Payne spent his summer working on a 6 foot jumper and a hook shot, wed be walking into the national championship game. Unfortunately, after watching the first exhibition game, it appears Payne left off from last year.  Payne has a lot of ability in an uptempo game, but once it becomes half court, he seems to over think it.  What can make up for that though is if Payne is constantly crashing the boards and running down the floor.  We need is length and athleticism.  Guana is nearly the exact opposite.  Guana can hit jump shots but seems to always miss the rebound right next him.  Alex is also half the athlete as Payne but appears to have twice the post moves.   Gauna looked good in the first exhibition game, that was promising.

Edge: Michigan (though unproven) I will go ahead an disagree with this.  Solely because none of your players have played college basketball before.  And Payne isn't dog food.  Edge MSU.

 

 

(just do this ALLLL the time)

 
C: Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford vs Derrick Nix/Matt Costello

Derrick Nix returns to anchor the Spartans in the middle.  Nix has had problems on the defensive end and with weight issues throughout his career but he can really score the basketball.  When he's on his game he's one of the better low post scorers in the B1G. (Nix and Payne are mostly interchangeable between the 4 and 5, depending on the team.  They will both play both at times.)

Jordan Morgan enters his reds
hirt Junior season after two very productive years.  Morgan isn't the type of guy who you give the ball to on a regular basis to provide offense but he gets points in transition, does a good job on the glass and shoots a very high percentage.  Before his injury last season Jon Horford was usurping Morgan's minutes and seems to have the higher upside of the two.  Expect both to be significant contributors this season and hold down the center spot well for Michigan.  Mitch McGary could also see time at the 5 spot.  Michigan also has Blake McClimans.

Edge: Even

These seem like pretty even squads.  Let's take a look at the statistics from last season:

PPG:
OPPG:
Rebounding Margin:
Turnovers:

By possession metrics:

Michigan got bigger and more athletic and should see a benefit in their rebounding numbers but may also see a drop in the 3 point shooting %.

MSU loses a great star in Draymond Green and will need to find players to create offense and fill the leadership vacuum left by his departure.  As is typically true of Izzo coached teams I expect this year's Spartans may start a little slowly due to the new faces and distribution of offensive possessions but should round into form by B1G play and be ready to make a run in March.

Both teams should compete with Indiana and Ohio State for the B1G championship and I've learned to never count out Bo Ryan's Badgers.

Recalibrate

Often times following a football game a few sayings get thrown around.  The game may have been "closer than the final score" or "not as close as the score indicated".  Michigan's 12-10 victory was exactly as ugly and hard fought as the score indicated.  Both teams had chances to win and Michigan made the plays in the last five minutes to win the game.  Heading into the season we reviewed these teams as being very evenly matched and coming out of their showdown it appears they were evenly matched indeed.  Michigan State's defense has what it takes to hold down Denard Robinson but this season Denard hard what it took to do just enough to win the ballgame.

This is Michigan.

Some game wrapping thoughts:

• Is Max Bullough getting NFL buzz yet?  Meaning, can he please leave for the NFL after this season?  Despite the hype surrounding William Gholston and Johnny Adams coming into the season, Bullough is clearly the best player on the Michigan State defense.  
• Burbridge, as a true freshman, is one of the most dangerous wideouts in the B1G.  I'm terrified of what he's going to do the next two seasons before he's off to the NFL after his junior year. 
• Great call on the fake punt by Dantonio.  Michigan never does much on punt returns anyway so there's really no excuse for giving up 40 yards there. 
• 900 wins.  641 wins.  You can guess the programs those belong to.
• Jake Ryan is better than William Gholston.  In fact, this needs its own section...

In the preseason this became a bit of a debate.  Let's review some of the writing we did in the preseason about the defenses.
Our esteemed commenter Trivialstuff made this little comment:

"Gholston needs to be more consistent, but UM doesn't have a guy with his ability to be disruptive when he is playing up to his potential". - Trivalstuff in August

Being a little more bullish on one particular Michigan defender I responded:

"I think Jake Ryan has the ability to as disruptive as Gholston. In fact I think they have had very similar careers to this point. Inconsistent seasons in 2011 culminating in a big performance in a bowl victory". - Pat in August

And Tbone concluded:

"He may have the ability to be as disruptive at some point in his college life. but to this point they are very different. And even last year they were very different. Gholston has 70 total tackles, 16 tackles for loss and 5 sacks last year versus Ryan's 37 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. The big difference there is the total tackles. Gholston can get to the sideline and extend the Dline better than any defense end in the B1G.

I would not trade the two straight up." - Tbone in August

Would you trade the two straight up now?  In this game Ryan had 10 tackles (8 solo), a forced fumble (MSU recovered) and a sack.  I certainly would not trade Ryan for Gholston.  
 
This rivalry should only continue to heat up from here for the next few seasons.  There aren't any blowouts on the horizon in the near future.

Other than ending the Spartans season in October, this victory means a lot for Michigan for the rest of the 2012. Heading into the season most pundits had Michigan State pegged as the favorites to win the Big Ten championship.  Following Michigan's 12-10 victory on Saturday those expectations are recalibrated and the Wolverines are now the clear favorites to win the Legends division.  (Wisconsin is probably the Vegas favorite to win the B1G as they are virtually already locked into the title game)  Michigan moves on to a game in Lincoln this week that will be extremely tough while the Spartans have to travel to Madison to face a rapidly improving Badger squad.  The Spartans will be trying to right the ship and move a game closer to becoming bowl eligible while the Wolverines will be looking to take a commanding position in the Legends race.  It's another big weekend in college football.

After 8 weeks here's how things stand in the B1G:

1. Ohio State - I'm tempted to move them down after they keep squeaking by marginal teams.  It's going to catch up with them soon with a loss.  Their defense appears to be extremely down from Ohio State defenses of old.

2. Michigan - The leader of the Legends.  Undefeated in B1G play.  This week may be the last obstacle to get by to ensure a trip to Indy.

3. Penn State - I won't ignore you any longer Nittany Lions.  Impressive beatdown of the Hawkeyes at Kinnick.  Hosting OSU this week in what promises to be their best chance for a statement victory in 2012.

4. Nebraska - Can vault up to #2 on this list with a victory at home on Saturday.  Taylor Martinez is playing well (especially at home) but the Blackshirt defenses is a sieve.  If they could stop anyone they could be the class of the B1G.

5. Wisconsin - All of a sudden the loss to Oregon State doesn't look so bad.  Maybe Wisconsin played the Big Ten's 2nd toughest non conference schedule.  Badgers are back in familiar territory leading the Leaders division.  They'll be trying to improve each week before their inevitable Rose Bowl play-in game in Indianapolis.

6. Northwestern - Led by double digits in the 4th quarter in losses to Penn State and Nebraska.  This team will be in a battle in every game they play.

7. Michigan State - Sitting at 4-4 it's difficult to find a place for the Spartans but their only truly disappointing loss was at home to Iowa.  Otherwise they have suffered heartbreaking close losses to good teams.  ND is #5.  OSU in the top 15 and Michigan moving up the BCS standings.  A pretty good team with a much worse record than the last two seasons.

8. Iowa - I don't think these guys are very good, especially without Mark Weisman.

9. Minneosta - Will be clawing to win a couple games for a bowl berth in year 2 of the Jerry Kill era.

10. Purdue - Wasn't this team a supposed B1G title contender 3 weeks ago?

11. Indiana - Much improved from last year but not improved enough to beat any B1G teams yet.

12. Illinois - You fire Ron Zook and appear to be a more poorly coached team the following season.  Not a good time to be an Illini fan. 

MSU/um Prediction

So here we are.  The Apex of hate week, or is this the down fall?  Or is the game the Apex?  I'm not sure, regardless tomorrow, tomorrow is the day.  House vs. House.  Brother vs. Sister. Blogger vs. Blogger. After Saturday, there will be a new background here on the blog as Pat and I have an going wager that the blogger winner gets to pick the new background. I don't want to lose this. 

OFFENSE:  Well, where to begin.  First of all, we need to score. That is probably the biggest thing for MSU, but how do we get there?  Bell needs to get going and he needs to get going early.  MSU has no room for error early in the game.  This um fan base is rabid for a win over MSU, that way they can wave it in our face and say things in an East Coast accent.  The whole of the MSU offense needs to have a stellar game.  The offensive line needs to block, the receivers to need to be crisp and fast, and our running backs need to be bruising.  Up front is where this game will be decided.  The MSU line is depleted and has been performing that way.  um will look to get in and attack Maxwell, so the line needs to perform.  With that, I do expect MSU to put together some drives to start, with Burbridge coming ready and Caper providing a nice option for Maxwell in the pass game out of the backfield.

DEFENSE:  So far, the MSU defense has played well.  If our offense kicks a field goal in the games against OSU and Iowa, we likely win. The last two games against michigan, the MSU defense has been able to limit Denard.  Pat calls them the worst games Denard has ever played.  I guess he forgets about Notre Dame and Alabama this year.  However, that is the  key to beat um.  Limit the plays the Denard is making.  In the past, Norman has been very successful in beating Denard to the edge and, when needed, getting into coverage across the middle.  This year, Norman appears to have bulked up and lost a step, losing a lot of playing time to Taiwan Jones.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, but is still the key.  We need our outside linebackers to be able to bottle up the rushers and defend against those short passes that make a drive. Opportunities for Denard to throw the ball down field will be there, it would be foolish for this offense to not take its chances.  The front 7 needs to make Denard uncomfortable in the pocket, keep him guessing as to where to run, where to throw.  Like the offense, the Defense needs to be flawless. If there is an opportunity for the interception, there cannot be a drop.  When tackling, an arm tackle will not work. 

PREDICTION:  So far, I have predicted MSU to win every game this year.  Do you see a pattern?  I like our chances, in this game, but I like our chances in every game. With this defense how could you not like our chances?  However, with this offense how can you ever pick for us?  Currently michigan is a 10 point favorite.  Is that too high?  I fully expect the um offense and defense to come hyped for this game.  michigan will likely have its first lively crowd since 90's.  As I mentioned, MSU needs to get into this early. Now is the time to shake off the slow starts and silence this um crowd.  Let our friends over in ann arbor know that we own this State now.  Look for these teams to throw a few punches early before settling into a groove.  However, this MSU offense is not nearly good enough to score enough points to win.  I am gonna call this one: 24-20 um.

Q/A with Chris Vannini

Pat learned so much in school at Michigan that I have to post for him.

 

Here is a Q/A with Chris Vannini, the managing editor of the MSU blog The Only Colors.  You can follow Chris on twitter at @chrisvannini

Below, Pat's questions for Chris will be in bold/blue.  

5 serious questions concerning Saturday:

1. Last season Michigan State had some injury issues on the offensive line and I believe ended up starting either former walk-ons or guys who recently switched over from the defensive line.  While the line had some issues early in the season things seemed to really come together as the year went on (especially in the Michigan game)  I went into the game last year thinking MSU's Oline was a train wreck only to watch them dominate the line of scrimmage against a pretty stout Michigan defensive line.  Can they do that again or are the issues this season much worse than last year? 
 

It's hard to tell. This year's team has lost the top two linemen in center Travis Jackson and right tackle Fou Fonoti, and struggled mightily against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They even had problems against Eastern Michigan and Indiana. They seem to be getting a little bit better overall, having a decent, but not great, performance against Iowa. Based on what I've seen, Michigan's defensive line has gotten close to where it was last year, while the linebackers are a lot better. If MSU wants to spring any big runs, they're going to need to get some blocks in the second level, something they've struggled to do this year.

2. The Spartans have faced Denard Robinson as the starter twice in his career and twice he has played arguably his worst game of the season against Michigan State.  For all his stats and accomplishments, is Denard Robinson overrated?    

He's not overrated, at least not in my opinion. That may be because I haven't considered him a legitimate Heisman candidate outside of the start in 2010. That said, he is what makes college football great. So many different schemes, types of players and whatnot. The NFL is basically the same bland stuff (which is why Michael Vick is overrated). College football is full of variety, and it's always fun to see competing ideals and strategies face off. Denard Robinson won't be a quarterback in the NFL. That doesn't mean he's not a good college quarterback. He picks up yards and wins games (mostly without any help). Yeah, he has struggled against most of the best opponents he has played, but that's the case with many players. MSU rarely runs the ball well in its big games. He is what he is. He's electrifying, he's frustrating, but he's what college football is all about.

3. Other than the emphasis placed on the rivalry by the coaching staff, is there a schematic reason Dantonio has been so successful against Michigan?  And as a follow up to question #2, is there a schematic (or other) reason that Pat Narduzzi's defense has owned Denard and Michigan's offense the previous two seasons? 

The blueprints to stop Denard Robinson are there, but only a few teams have the personnel to get away with them. Alabama sat back and let Denard use his arm, while MSU puts him under tremendous pressure. It's schematic, but only because they have the players to do it. Most teams can't get away with what MSU or Alabama do on defense. Pat Narduzzi's first few defenses at MSU were really bad, but once he got his players in, they fit the bill, and the schemes that seemed so bad now seem so good. There certainly are weakness. There are no perfect defenses, but with a limited offense like Michigan's, you can cover up the holes easier.

4. Cracks in the D...while the overall numbers look good it seems like MSU's defense has had difficulties making the key play or stop in the 4th quarter.  While there might be a few explanations (maybe they are on the field longer and for more possessions due to the offensive ineptitude?) is there an issue with the defense?  As it pertains to this Saturday, do you believe MSU's defense is better, the same, or worse than the version last season that faced the Wolverines?

I'm in the camp that isn't putting much heat on this group. They're actually giving up fewer yards and points than a year ago, although obviously the opposition is weaker. They've given up second-half leads to Ohio State and Iowa, but allowing 17 and 13 points in regulation, respectively, should be enough to win. If MSU has just an average offense, the few mistakes on defense aren't as noticed. 

The defense isn't as good as last year, no. It's for a variety of reasons (and I don't think "press clippings" are one of them). Other teams have figured out how to scheme against Narduzzi (like you would with anything you see every year), the pass rush isn't nearly as good, and the blitzes are getting picked up more. The rush from the line has been slow to develop, as Jerel Worthy isn't there to blow up a play before it starts. Still, this is a top-10 defense in the country. That's plenty good enough. They need help.

5. Is MSU is capable of beating Michigan on Saturday if they don't win the turnover battle?  

Sure, as long as it's a close difference. If one of the turnovers is in your own red zone or a pick-six or something, that obviously will go a long way toward a victory. They can win without a turnover edge, but they just can't be crippling turnovers. I don't think it will be a high-scoring one. Iowa's turnover last week on their side of the field lead to a TD, while MSU's turnover ended the game. So it's all about the context. That seems like a simple answer, because it is.

And 3 fun questions about the rivalry in general:

1. Throughout your Spartan fandom and when it comes to playing Michigan, which loss was the most crushing?
 

I have to admit, I was a U-M fan growing up until high school. I didn't have a real reason for it, but I grew up in suburban Detroit, and that's just what everyone was back then. I started to switch when I realized I wanted to go into writing, and U-M didn't have a journalism school. To my surprise, U-M didn't admit me anyway, and that made my college choice much easier. (Long story as to why I wasn't admitted, but I don't need to get into it. Ended up being the best thing to happen to me). So my choices on this are limited to one game: 2007, my freshman year. 

That had been a frustrating year with all the close losses, an you began to wonder how much different the Mark Dantonio era would be from JLS. We obviously all know what happened that night. After MSU went up by 10, I told the guy in front of me to double Mario Manningham all night. Don't let him pull a Braylon. He sorta did, and then all the stuff afterward. After not getting into the school (even if I wasn't going to go anyway), it was a punch in the gut. I had some U-M friends, they let me have it, and that might have been my christening as a Spartan fan. Still the worst loss I've gone through. What Mark Dantonio had to say in the next few days showed me that things weren't going to continue the way they were. And he was right.

2. Which Victory over the Wolverines has tasted the sweetest? 

It's close between 2008 and 2010, but I'm going to go with 2010 because of the hype leading up to it. Breaking the losing streak in 08 was more a sense of relief than anything. In 2010, with the Denard Robinson Heisman talk and the "Michigan's back" blah blah blah stuff, shutting people up was definitely the sweetest victory. I was sitting next to a major douchebag at that one, and when he left after the third quarter, the party began. We were surrounded by mostly MSU fans, so we had some fun with cheers and taunts and everything. An old lady called me the best fan of the game. So that was cool.

3. Would you trade winning the B1G for beating Michigan?  Or put another way, how much does the success of every season hinge on the game with the Wolverines?  

No way. Times have changed. The days of a win over U-M making the season are long gone. That's because the expectations have changed. MSU expects to make a good bowl game, expects to compete for the Big Ten championship and expects to be right there with Michigan every year. It's certainly treated unlike any other game, but in the last two years, you celebrate the win, then move on and continue fighting for a Big Ten championship. Their hopes of winning the Big Ten are all but dashed this year, but the U-M game can still be a turning point toward a decent season. A win Saturday wouldn't make up for the three losses already, but the hope is it would help right the ship.

The Facts: Statistics

Michigan's Season to Date
4-2
vs Alabama 41-14 L
vs Air Force 31-25 W
vs Massachusetts 63-13 W
@Notre Dame 13-6 L
@Purdue 44-13 W
vs Illinois 45-0 W

Michigan State's Season to Date 
4-3
vs Boise State 17-13 W
@Central Michigan 41-7 W
vs Notre Dame 20-3 L
vs Eastern Michigan 23-7 W
vs Ohio State 17-16 L
@Indiana 31-27 W
vs Iowa 19-16 L

Offense
Rushing O
Michigan: 17th (233)
Michigan State: 84th (144)

Passing O
Michigan: 104th (186)
Michigan State: 59th (236th)

Turnovers Lost
Michigan: 13
Michigan State: 8

Total O
Michigan: 55th (419)
Michigan State:  80th (380)

Scoring O
Michigan: 37th (34 points per game)
Michigan State: 102nd (21)



Defense
Rushing D
Michigan: 55th (148)
Michigan State: 8th (91)

Passing D
Michigan: 3rd (135)
Michigan State: 17th (179)

Turnovers Gained
Michigan: 10
Michigan State: 10

Total D
Michigan: 10th (283)
Michigan State: 7th (270)

Scoring D
Michigan: 23rd (18)
Michigan State: 14th (16)


When Michigan has the ball:
The #55 offense will be facing the #7th defense.  This will be a battle of strength on strength as the #8 rush defense attempts to slow down the #17 rushing offense.  MSU appears slightly more susceptible through the air while Michigan's offensive numbers in the passing game don't look so hot.  Sparty hasn't been able to create many turnovers on D this year (10 in 7 games) while Denard gave Notre Dame the ball 5 times in one contest.  This statistical battle points to the Spartans defense having an edge over the Wolverine offense.

When Michigan State has the ball:
The #80 offense will be facing the #10 defense.  Michigan's defense boasts gaudy numbers in pass defense (probably helped playing Air Force who rarely threw the football) while the MSU offense is surprisingly worse in the run game (84th) than in the pass game (59th).  Michigan has also been poor at creating turnovers on defense this year (only 10 through 6 games) and the Michigan State offense has done a relatively good job in this area only turning the ball over 8 times. This comparison shows a big advantage for the Michigan defense against the struggling Spartan offense.


Thoughts:

These stats look pretty good to a Michigan fan.  The defenses appear to be about on the same level and Michigan's offense is clearly better statistically than the Sparty O.   Turnovers are my biggest worry for Saturday. It's difficult to envision Michigan creating more than 1 or 2 and Denard scares me versus good defenses.  If we get good Denard, the version who takes care of the football and doesn't try to make a play on every play, the guy who runs and runs and only throws it to wide open receivers, I don't see many scenarios working in the Spartans favor.  Denard, however, hasn't proven that he can do this very consistently and thus we wait with bated breath.

Weekend Recap

So I didn't watch as much college football as I normally would with the Tigers playoff game against the Yankees.  I did catch all of the Spartan game and did watch a portion of the UM game, until you know, it was apparent that game wasn't turning around for the Illini

- The Wolverines certainly appear to be the team to beat in Legends division.  The offense is firing on all cylinders at this point after games against Purdue and Illinois.  Even though those are not the strongest teams in the conference, these are the games you need to put points up in and get all the mojo going.  Those previous two weeks were the perfect games leading up to the MSU game.  Toussaint finally got going along with Robinson the pass game game looked solid enough and the confidence could not be higher for the Wolverines. 

- On the other end of the spectrum are my Spartans.  In a rain soaked game the Spartans managed a measly  16 points against an exceptionally mediocre, though leading the Legends division, Iowa Hawkeye team (back handed compliment of the week).  I don't really have a lot to say but I will.  Early on, Bell got moving pretty well, the defense looked like they were ready to play and the Spartan's appeared to be on their way to rolling the Hawkeyes.  Unfortunately, that did not happen.  Maxwell missed a few passes, one in particular was sailed over Burbridge in the endzone.  Burbridge maybe could have done more to wiggle open, but without a doubt, had Maxwell thrown that ball into his body, that was a touchdown.  Of course, there was the end of the first half botched field goal.  After a couple nice plays to get the ball into FG range, all things brokw down.  Players were running on the field, some were running off, Bell tried to clock the ball, then the half was over.  In a way, that play has summarized the Spartans play so far this year.  Some great plays, followed by a mess, and then hoping Bell can carry us.

Getting to a bowl game at this point looks like it will be a struggle.  I have to imagine the MSU team is very deflated coming into UM and there is no doubt that the Wolverines are ready.  Right now, that looks like it will end up being an ugly game. I said we should go 4-2 for the secong half, already we are are 0-1.  We need this win against UM.

 

(Just because its hate week.  Bite me.)

Ranking the B1G

While it's approaching Big East levels of (dis)respect, it's still the conference that contains Michigan and MSU.  Here's how I think the league shakes out to date:


1. OSU - They deserve this spot for being at 4-0 with a victory over Cal.  Still, they haven't looked like world beaters in any of those victories.  This Saturday will tell us a lot more about the Buckeyes.   I wrote a couple weeks ago that a win in East Lansing and the Buckeyes may be looking at running the table...and I threw up in my mouth a little.

2. Northwestern - The best resume of any B1G team, but is it filled with lies?  Their defense may begin to leak in B1G play.  If they can hold teams down on D their offense can win them a lot of games.

3. Nebraska - I'm going to forgive the road loss to UCLA and give this squad the benefit of the doubt.  Right now probably the very slight favorites in the Legends division.

4. Michigan - Only 2-2 but have clearly faced the toughest schedule in the conference.  Would any other B1G team be better than 2-2 with Michigan's schedule? I say no, though maybe OSU could win @ND.

5. MSU - The best defense and RB in the conference could carry the Spartans to the B1G championship.  That passing game certainly makes Spartan's nervous though.

6. Wisconsin - The offense has regressed tremendously without Russell Wilson but I think they have played the second most difficult league slate to date.  It's only because Oregon State was so bad last season that Wisconsin's loss seemed like a big upset when in fact Oregon State is a pretty good team this season.

7. Purdue - The Boilermakers have a legitimate case to be higher here.  Their defense is much improved and they have a very stout defensive line. The Purdue offense seems to have some cohesiveness for the first time since Danny Hope has been coaching there.

8. Minnesota - 4-0 but haven't faced much of a test to start the season.  A much improved team over last season but probably still a year or 2 away from contending for the championship game.  Need Marquis Gray back and healthy.

9. Penn State - If they lose this week on the road at Illinois it's an all out spiral.  They need a W this week and then can look at games with Iowa and IU has likely victories.

10. Iowa - Their poor recruiting on the defensive side of the ball is finally bearing it's ugly head for the Hawkeyes.  Is this Kirk Ferentz's worst Iowa team?  A bowl game looks like a lofty goal this season.

11  Indiana - Hoosiers are better than last year but will likely struggle to win a B1G game this season.

12. Illinois - A train wreck under their first year coach.  Maybe Zooker didn't leave as much talent behind as everyone thought?

And because I like stats here's a quick breakdown of where all the B1G teams rank nationally in their respective units (remember 4 games strength of schedule fluctuates wildly) I'm not sure if you can take any real meaning from any of this but I was surprised by the teams at the bottom of the conference on both offense and defense.

Total Offense

Nebraska 6th
Ohio State 36th
Northwestern 45th
Minnesota 46th
Michigan State 47th
Indiana 50th
Michigan 59th
Penn State 65th
Iowa 76th
Purdue 77th
Illinois 85th
Wisconsin 96th

Wisconsin is currently last in the conference in total offense...What a difference a year makes!

Total Defense

MSU 6th
Purdue 17th
Minnesota 21st
Iowa 25th
Wisconsin 31st
Illinois 35th
Michigan 37th
Nebraska 51st
Penn State 54th
Indiana 49th
Northwestern 60th
Ohio State 71st

Looks like it may be a low scoring year in the B1G.  Much better rankings here than in the offensive categories.  Is Ohio State really that poor defensively?

You Know Nothing, Jon Snow

A quick recap of the season for the Wolverines:

Week 1: Curb stomped by what appears to be an uber elite Alabama team.

Week 2: Struggled defensively against tricky triple option Air Force in a week of short preparation with a defensive coordinator who rarely faces the triple option and employed some flawed schemes. 

Week 3: UMass lol.  Just might be the worst FBS team in the country.

What have we learned through three weeks that we didn't know entering the season?  Alabama proved Michigan cannot hang with Alabama, but can anyone?  Air Force runs on everyone and Michigan was no exception.  And UMass lol.

So after three weeks the fans and media really don't know a whole lot about where Michigan stacks up this season in regards to their competition in the Big Ten.  The rest of the Big Ten looks so weak right now that Michigan might now be the favorites?

A rational argument could be made that Michigan is looking at 7-5 this season.  A rational argument could also be made that Michigan is going to run the table and finish 11-1.  Somewhere in the middle is the most likely scenario, around 9-3, but it's interesting things stand so unknown after three games.

--

The Spartans, on the other hand, seem to be a team easy to peg at this point.  While the victory over Boise St still provides questions because we simply don't know how good Boise is this season, there are a few certainties with respect to Michigan State.

1. The defense is elite.  Will Gholston is playing below expectations, but the secondary and linebackers are fantastic.  The loss to Notre Dame is likely the only way to beat MSU.  Kelly virtually shut down the offense in the 2nd half and just let his defense win him the game. Which brings us to...
2. Turns out  it is not so easy replacing Cousins, Cunningham, Martin and Nichol.  Leveon Bell is outstanding (and will keep making highlights by leaping people) but the young QB and receivers need to be able to beat teams who stack the box against Bell.  Against the Irish they failed to do so and it wasn't pretty.  The offensive line has had major issues in protection and Bell's success, IMO, has more to do with Bell making plays than the MSU offensive line creating for him. 
3. MSU still may be the class of the Big Ten this year but they aren't going to walk through their schedule and dominate.  They will be in tough games with OSU, UM, Wisconsin, Nebraska and maybe Northwestern.

Recap and Quick Hits

This is wholly an MSU fans perspective.  But there were a few things I noticed from the first week of college football.  The first thing is that zero of the B1G of the teams really looked all that great.

-It was pretty obvious that OSU was going to outclass Miami OH, but they really stunk it up to start.  Braxton Miller looks like he really made leaps in bounds.  Of course this was not a B1G team they were playing.

-I liked Penn State's offense.  Up and to the point where their starting running back got hurt.  Should he be out for a while, PSU will really suffer this season.  Their defense was really bad.  While Ohio is probably the best MAC team this year, PSU was supposed to have a good defense.  We will see if this is one a first game jitters thing.

-Taylor Martinez looked really good passing against Southern Miss.  However, Burkhead left with a sprained MCL. That could be a big loss for Nebraska if this is a lingering injury.

-Wisconsin did not look like the team everyone thinks they are.  Their offensive line did not have a lot of push, with Ball averaging less than 4 ypc. Their defense gave up some big plays that allowed UNI to stay in the game.

-I listened to the Purdue game on the Radio, that was a snore fest.  Marve was on fire.

-Northwestern, the last few years has had a lot of play makers on offense.  Syracuse is not exactly the cream of the crop but that was a heck of a game.  It would be smart to pass the ball against Northwestern. 

-Michigan got hit by a steam roller.  I remember that from two years ago.  Never a fun game to watch unless you're an Alabama fan.  I have seen some people say the UM line played well, other said they did not.  I am in the camp that thinks they did not.  I am sure to catch some flack for that.  It did not look like the Alabama defensive line was trying to go for the sack, they got some push stood there and created a wall, that was all they needed.  On rushes they got off their blocks and made tackles.  The wolverine receivers were nothing too great except for Gallon.  (I will say that Gardner has a lot of potential.)  Part of that was also the blanket that the Alabama secondary laid out on pass plays.  It probably isn't fair to pick apart UM when they ran into the likely national champions.  But when you have the kind of pre-season hype as UM did, you should at least show some signs of life.  Robinson was completely ineffective.  Both before and after he injured his shoulder, passes were off.  After the game, Robinson said he needed to be more of a Michigan quarterback.  Whatever that is.  Denard needs to be Denard.  Not something Hoke wants him to be.  Personally, I think UM should have moved the pocket left and right, try to create more space for Denard to either pass or run.  The lack of depth on offense was also a problem against Alabama.  It likely wont be over the next few games, but should be as the season rolls on.

-MSU was pretty uninspiring, offensively.  I thought the line played ok at best, no sacks, and we ran for a healthy 213 yards.  I thought Maxwell played exceptionally mediocre (I wont say bad because we did win, and that's the whole idea).  He certainly has a strong arm and can sling it all over the field.  He also managed 3 interceptions.  One of them was a pass right on the money, in the hands of Lippet who then appeared to toss the ball to the defender.  Having watched that replay numerous times, Lippet was gone for a huge gain if he doesn't pitch it to the defender.  The other picks were uncalled for.  With that, the receivers were not too impressive.  Lippet made a few mistakes, including a fumble after a 35 yard gain. Fowler played solidly, though only had 2 receptions.  Dion Sims I thought was the most impressive. He made crucial grabs and was a big body we needed down field for blocks.  The defense was very good, holding Boise State to 206 yards (Le'Veon Bell had more yards) of offense and no offensive touchdowns.  Some people will say it was a failure because Gholston had no tackles but I found him disruptive.  He was in the offensive backfield a bit and managed a pass deflection.  Darqueze Dennard was very good on pass defense. Adams and Dennard will be tough to beat game in a and game out.  I am happy with the win, even if it was sloppy. 

(Greg Shamus/Getty Images)

Overall, the B1G definitely has some things to show in week 2.  And most of the teams will have weaker opponents which should help.

WR/TE

(the michigan portion was written by pat, posted by tbone)

Yikes.  Wide receivers and tight ends are probably the least proven of all offensive position groups for the Wolverines heading into 2012.

First the TE's.

Michigan loses Kevin Koger to graduation.  Koger played seemingly all the offensive snaps at TE last season and with his departure Michigan their one proven player at the position.  When Michigan went to two TE sets last year they turned to Steve Watson, who also departs.  Watson didn't do much to draw praise or ire, so it's safe to say he was average. 

Taking over for Koger and Watson is senior Brandon Moore.  Moore has physical ability but his lack of snaps indicate he has yet to put things together.  He's likely to be the main TE in running situations.  If he can play at an average level that will be a win for the Wolverines.

Backing up Moore is a bunch of bodies with no proven commodities.  Walk-on Mike Kwiatkowski is likely the next guy in line.  Walk-ons in the lineup always give you pause but TE is a position where walk-ons have had success at many programs.  Beyond these two there are two freshman; Devin Funchess is a tweener and may well be a WR this season but he is well regarded.  He could potentially earn snaps in passing situations.  AJ Williams is another tweener but he is more of an offensive tackle than a TE.  If he sees the field it will certainly be as a road grading run blocker.

Other bodies here are sophomores Ricardo Miller and Jordan Paskorz.  Both will have opportunity to prove themselves and earn playing time.

Success of this unit depends largely on Moore and whether or not he can be a Michigan caliber starter in his senior year.  This will not be the strength of the team but TE is a position that can be schemed for or around, depending on your talent.

Wide receiver on the other hand is important in any offense in college football.  Michigan loses it's best playmaker on the outside in Junior Hemingway.  He was Denard's safety valve all season and continually went up and won jump balls. Martavious Odoms was also lost to graduation.  Odoms made some big plays (especially in the OSU game) and will be missed as a leader and a guy with tons of experience.

Michigan was dealt another blow when Daryl Stonum was dismissed from the team in the offseason after serving a one year suspension last season.  Stonum would have been a clear #1 guy for Michigan.

Yet another setback occurred when Roy Roundtree had arthroscopic knee surgery last week.  Roy is expected back within a couple of weeks and should be ready to play for Alabama but may not be effective the first few weeks of the season.

Michigan will look for Roundtree or Jeremy Gallon to step up and become a #1 receiver this season.  Gallon is a mighty mite but has great leaping ability and is exceptionally quick.  I'm higher on Gallon than most and believe he will be Michigan's top target this season and a playmaker as well.  Drew Dileo is another returning player who has seen action and made big catches.  Dileo is a less experienced and less explosive version of Gallon.  He will be a productive slot receiver this season.

Devin Gardner is an unknown but has been taking snaps at WR.  He's tall and fast and has been impressive by all accounts. It will be interesting to see how much he actually plays at WR.  He's probably Michigan's 2nd best athlete after Denard on the entire team.   He could be a redzone demon or barely see the field as a WR, it's really anyone's guess at this point.

Beyond those two things get dicey.  Jeremy Jackson is now an upperclassmen and has playing experience but he is justifiably put into the dreaded "possession receiver" category.  He is steady but does not have the athleticism to get open consistently.  Jerald Robinson has the athleticism and size and now is his time to show what he can do.  Robinson will have plenty of opportunity to shine on the outside for Michigan.  Both incoming freshman could also contribute.  They are big (something Michigan's upperclassman can't boast) and they are also fast.  Amara Darboh is my choice between the two if you are looking for one to earn early playing time.

While Michigan has some issues at WR for 2012 I'm not sure I would trade their starting unit for any others in the Big Ten.  This year is not the year of the WR in the conference.  I expect one of Michigan's receivers to be on the All-B1G team at the end of the season and think this unit will solid but lacking a true #1 deep threat throughout the season.

If you look at TE and WR as one unit together, I would say Michigan has a blend of talent, experience and giant question marks.   This is a high variance group that could be a disaster if they can't work out something at TE or could be a very big advantage if things take shape.  It will be interesting to see how this one plays out for the Wolverines.

-----------------------------------------

The Spartan Tight End group is about as thin as they come. MSU lost Garet Celek and Brian Linthicim to graduation. Starting is well known player Dion Sims.  Sims is a fourth year Junior who red shirted 2010 due to legal issues.  Sims showed a lot of promise as a freshman and played most of last year with a broken hand, thus limiting his production.  He has been named to the Mackey award watch list and is appearing on severeal pre-season All B1G lists.  In Sims, new QB Maxwell should find a security blanket. Here is a big target with proven hands.  In the redzone Sims will feast, an all B1G selection figures to be a lock.  Outside of Sims, there is not a lot of proven talent.  MSU has a converted defensive end in Denzel Drone, though lately he was been practicing on defense thanks to the emergence of Andrew Gleichert and Derek Hoebing.

Wide receiver is pretty much the opposite problem as tight end, where there is limited experience across the board but also a lot of potential starters.  For me the starters will be Bennie Fowler and DeAnthony Arnett, at least once the season gets going.  But for now, that Arnett spot is held by Tony Lippett.  Tony played last year as a corner back and was more than serviceable.  His athleticism is his largest attribute.  If Tony gained some muscle in the off season, he could be a huge surprise for the offense.  Fowler is a name that has been around the Spartan team for a while.  As a redshirt freshman, Fowler made an impact both in receiveing and returning.  Since then, Fowler has been trying to heal a foot injury.  His health will decide how this receving crew will end up.  Talented, great hands, good size, MSU needs Fowler.

From there MSU has a lot of unproven talent.  All of these guys are athletes, Keith Mumphrey, Andre Sims Jr, the tallest one, Juwan Caesar.  However, the name that keeps coming up is Tres Barksdale.  Tres is a walk on to the team and has been impressive.  In the first scrimmage, Tres hauled in a 37 yard TD against our backup defense.  You can look at that either way, but I will take the positive in Tres.  MSU has had some success with walk on wide receivers, think Blaire White.  Finally, Aaron Burbridge will miss 6 weeks with a knee injury.  Having recently had arthroscopic surgery, you return pretty quickly, just don't push it.  Thankfully he will be under the watchful eye of the MSU medical staff.  This is pretty sad after everything Aaron did to get his grades in line.  With all that time missed during practice I would be shocked if he did not redshirt.  That would actually be a blessing for MSU.  Move some of that talent back a year, let him practice all this season, keep his grades up, could be a real positive for MSU.  (I have left off DeAnthony Arnett because so much has been written on him already.)

It will be interesting to see how the offense lines up.  Do they want some of our burners our there in Mumphery and Sims Jr? Will they use a taller receiver with one of the speedsters?  What about lots of 3 and 4 wide?  I expect a lot of three wide with Sims acting as a 4th receiver while lined up on the line.  If Sims is out, you can probably expect a run the majority of the time.

With that, MSU has a good problem at wide receiver with all the talent.  The problem is that they are unproven.  The most seasoned player, Arnett, was a freshman last year at Tennessee, and is currently behind other players with knowledge and reps in the system. 

So how do these groups stack up against eachother?

In my opinion, I think MSU has more talent as a wide receiving core and is better at tight end with Dion Sims (as a pass catcher).  However, the lack of game time experience for the MSU wide receivers makes this position group too close.

EDGE: Push.

Cornerback

(this part was written by Pat and posted by tbone)

Wolverine Cornerbacks:

Michigan lost backup cornerback Terrence Talbott recently as he left the program.  The rest of the corners return from last season.

2011 saw the Wolverines enter the season with huge question marks at the corner position.  It seemed like a position that would be the demise of the defense...except by some miracle (the coaching change) it wasn't. 

JT Floyd locked down one corner spot after seeing spot starts and significant playing time in previous seasons.  JT was able to take the proverbial leap and go from liability to a very solid starting cornerback.  His interception against Illinois sealed the victory.

The other starting corner was true freshman! Blake Countess.  Countess was the most hyped defensive recruit in Hoke's first recruiting class and came in and played that way from the get-go.  He was very good.  He was good enough to create significant hype heading into 2012.

Courtney Avery played the nickel and acquitted himself quite well. 

All three corners who saw significant time last season will be back in 2012.  Backups will be a pair of sophomores who saw special teams action last season and ESPN top 150 recruit true freshman Terry Richardson.  He's tiny though so hopefully he doesn't have to play and can redshirt this season.

Barring injury Michigan is set at the corner position.  Losing Talbott certainly hurts the depth at the position as you'd like quite a few more than 5 ready to play corners on the roster.  Though if Richardson is ready to play right away Michigan will be fine as far as depth is concerned.

This unit should be very good for Michigan in the fall.  They were above average a season ago and everyone who got significant time returns this season.  Expect this unit to be in the top part of the B1G.  One of the two corners will likely earn honors as an all B1G performer this season.  Combine these corners with the Kovacs and Gordon and Michigan's secondary should definitely be the strength of the defense in 2012.

Spartan Cornerbacks:

Returning for his senior year after some speculation that he might go pro, Johnny Adams is back to lead the Spartan defensive backfield.  Adams is predicted to go in the top 20 NFL next year according to Mel Kiper and was named to several first team All-B1G teams (Phil Steel, Athlon) and several award watch lists including Bednarik, Nagurski, and Thorpe.  Johnny is certainly in th drivers seat to have a great season.  Last season Adams had 51 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 3 interceptions.  Fun fact is that Johnny had the 7th most INT return yards, (141).  Adams is likely the best cover corner in the B1G and might be top 5 in the country.  

On the other side, starting is Darqueze Dennard.  Dennard was a honorable all B1G mention.  Last year he finished with 42 tackles and 3 interceptions.  Darqueze is a great complement to Johnny.  He rarely blows coverage and can muscle up with opposing wide receivers.

From there the Spartans have Mitchell White and Mylan Hicks.  Hicks redshirted his freshman year and then missed the bulk of 2012 due to injury, playing only in the Outback Bowl.  White has been used sparingly and is listed as the backup to Adams.  Out of these two I am interested to see how Hicks comes back.  Having seen White a bit last year, he looks like hes swimming on defense from time to time, and that is never a good thing. 

With red shirted and true freshman the Spartans have Trae Waynes and Arjen Colquhoun.  Both are tall corners, which is what Dantonio likes.  Waynes has been impressive through spring ball and is in that position to "push starters"  Though I do not think he will overtake Dennard, it is always good when your back up is reaching that level. 

Overall, this is a highly talented position as starters and very unproven as backups.  This will not be the backbone of the Spartan defense, but baring any injuries should be one of the best in the B1G.  I expect Dennard to at least earn second team all B1G, with a really solid season, Adams could get on some All-American lists by the end of the year. First team all B1G is certainly a lock. 

Based on Adams alone, I think they Spartan unit is stronger than Michigan.  Here is a player that will be drafted in the first round and fairly high.  His partner could very well end up with all B1G honors as well.  If Hicks proves to be a worthy back up this unit could be pretty nasty.  He should not get the playing time necessary to have a season comparable to Blake's first but allowing the starters to take a breather is what he needs to do.

Edge: MSU

Safeties

Michigan safety play was above average last season and the only departure is oft-injured Troy Woolfolk, a guy who bounced from corner to safety throughout his career.

Strong Safety:

Jordan Kovacs returns for his senior season to lead the defense from the strong safety position.  Kovacs went from feel-good story as a walk-on freshman becoming a starter to many fan's whipping boy as a sophomore to flat out baller as a junior.  As a senior, expect Kovacs to push for all-conference honors.  He may even be draftable in the late rounds next year or at least get invites to camps as an undrafted rookie. (Don't bet against him)

Backing up Kovacs will be the highly touted Marvin Robinson, a guy who regular comes in for praise for blowing people up in practice.  If Marvin ever puts everything together he could become an elite player (due to size, speed and athleticism) Another guy in the mix here will be Josh Furman who missed spring practice because of a criminal case against him, only to have all charges dismissed by the judge because he apparently didn't do anything wrong.  Weird situation but Furman was a guy who stood out on special teams last year and could possibly push for playing time.

Free Safety:

Thomas Gordon returns after a solid sophomore season.  Gordon seemed to be in the right place at the right time a lot, coming up with key turnovers.  Still, he battled Troy Woolfolk for the starting position and the coaches regularly went back to Woolfolk.  Gordon lacks the speed you'd desire in a deep safety but he seems to make up for it with making the right plays and playing with good instincts.

True freshman Jarrod Wilson enrolled early and will push to get himself into the 2-deep as Gordon's backup.  The depth here is a bit scary so it's possible/likely that Robinson and/or Furman also practice at this position.

Michigan should be very strong up the middle of their secondary this season.  Kovacs is simply not going to make mistakes.  Gordon can be trusted to play at a high level as well, he's proven he's capable.  This should be a real positive area for the Wolverines in 2012 and should help to make their defense one of the best in the Big Ten.


The MSU safety position is seeing a slight face lift after the graduation of captain Trenton Robinson.  However, like the rest of the defense, Dantonio has built a  lot of depth at the safety position.

Free Safety:

Returning starter Isiah Lewis will help keep the transition clean from Trenton to himself. Last year, Isiah was a second team all B1G selection. Isiah started all 14 games at strong safety and had two pick 6's.  (one was against Michigan, BOOM.)  Isaiah will be a player that's name is mentioned a lot this year.     Having made second team all conference, he should should make the leap to first team this year.  With 74 tackles and 4 picks, Isaiah is looking primed for a break out year.  Ball hawk skills and big pop make him a player other teams will avoid throwing deep against. 

Strong Safety:

Kurtis Drummond should be the starter at FS along side Isaiah. Though RJ Williamson has been showing a lot of skill and is right behind Drummond.  Last year, Drummond played behind Robinson and saw action in 12 games.  In his time on the field, Kurtis had 17 tackles and two interceptions.  Drummond has length and a good bit of speed out of the safety position.  He is the type of player that can easily drop back in coverage or sneak up and make plays against rushing quarterbacks.  I expect Drummond to hang on to the starter role mainly due to the experience he has.  However, Williamson will push him.

RJ came into his freshman year with a good amount of hype.  Especially once he got on the practice field.  Coach D was unsure if they should hold his talent back with a redshirt.  He had the ability to see playing time as a true freshman.  Now however, you will see that come together.  Like Drummond last year, I expect RJ to see a fair amount of playing time.  The drop from Drummond to Williamson will not be huge, which is a good thing MSU fans.

Other players to note would be Jarious Jones who is backing up Isaiah Lewis.  Jairus tore his ACL in last years spring practices and saw some limited action last year.  However, you may remeber him as being the guy that forced a fumble at Iowa last season to allow the first victory of MSU at Iowa since 1989.  Another player worth mentioning is Demeitrious Cox our of Jeannette, PA (i think the same city and high school as terrelle pryor.)  Cox will be a true freshman and was a four star recruit out of high school with some pretty serious offers including ND, OSU and PSU.  I would not be surprised if he skipped his red shirt.  However, Cox was unable to enroll early so he could be a bit behind as practice rolls around.

Overall, this is another position group that I think is stronger top to bottom than UM's.  I am a big Kovacs fan, but the way this MSU defense plays, I think MSU has the edge here.  This MSU safety group should receive the All B1G accolades, especialy Isaiah Lewis. As a whole, the MSU defense is just better than the UM defense.  I do not mean to take anything away from UM and what their defense did last year, but this if last year is an indication, or the norm, we have a good thing going.

Frick, I am excited for college football this year.

LB

Linebackers Michigan

Last Year:

2011 saw Michigan vastly improved at the linebacker position. The struggles at this position were well documented throughout the Rodriguez era at Michigan.  It was quite nice to have some production out of the linebackers.


Who's Gone:

Only one contributor is gone from the linebacker corps from last year.  Brandon Herron had a big game against Western Michigan but saw his playing time fall off drastically to where he was mostly a special teams player throughout the season. 

2012 Personnel:

In the middle is senior Kenny Demens.  Kenny now has more than a full season as the starting MLB under his belt.  He is likely to put up very good tackling numbers and be on the lists for All-Big Ten, maybe as a second teamer or honorable mention.  He'll be one of the top middle linebackers in the conference this season.

In Michigan's 4-3 Under defense they have a weakside and strongisde LB.  The strongside LB needs to be almost a DE combo type player as he will be tasked with taking on more blockers and being stout in the run game.  For this position Michigan turns to Jake Ryan.  As a redshirt freshman last season Ryan played almost the entire season as the starter and was a playmaker, always around the football.  The sky is the limit for Jake and he could become a household name around the conference this season.

There are plenty of incoming freshman who will try to earn their way onto the 2-deep.  Keep an eye on true freshman Joe Bolden who will probably enter the fall as the backup MLB and is likely to be Michigan's starter in the middle in 2013

On the weak side Michigan has starter Desmond Morgan coming back for his Sophomore season.  Morgan, in my humble opinion, was Michigan's weakest starter on defense last season.  He continually got blocked, took poor angles and looked generally like a true freshman...though his effort was always there and he seemed to be around the football a lot.  Luckily, he's not a true freshman anymore.  With starting experience in his pocket and a full off-season of a college strength program I expect a big leap in the level of play of Morgan.  He should go from liability to solid starter.  If he doesn't, his playing time will come under siege from some other young players on Michigan's roster.

Two more players will see time in the LB rotation.  Brandin Hawthorne and Cam Gordon.  You  may remember Hawthorne as the lean, tall looking line backer who makes tackles for loss.  He was outstanding in Michigan's spring game and will get playing time, likely on passing downs.  He needs to become a more consistent run stopper because up to this point he has displayed little ability to shed blockers.  Cam Gordon, you may remember from 2 seasons ago as Michigan's starting Free Safety.  He's now playing a position I described as "similar to a DE".  Wow, I'm glad Greg Robinson is no longer coaching at Michigan.  Cam has great athleticism and should be able to do good things when given the chance but he's battling rising star Jake Ryan for playing time.

2012 Outlook:

Overall, this unit has depth, production, leadership and room to improve.  They should go from a decent unit in 2011 to a very good unit in 2012.  I'm excited about the development of Michigan's linebackers as well as their prospects for 2012.  This should be a very good unit.


Linebackers Michigan State

Last Year:

Last year for MSU was supposed to be a transitional year for the Spartans.  After losing two time All-American Greg Jones and his partner Eric Gordon, there was supposed to be a drop in production.  But the opposite happened.  The LB core actually looked better with first year starter Max Bullough in the middle and Denicos Allen making explosive plays all over the field.  This LB core can defend the short pass across the middle better than the previous group, and is more than adequate at stopping the run.  The group is good at attacking sideline to sideline and Max has been able to direct both the defensive line and the linebackers for quick defensive changes.  As if you need more proof that they are athletic: 

(good way to get a sack)

Who's Gone:

No one.  This puts a smile on my face.

2012 Personnel:

Denicos Allen is one of those guys that is easy to miss on the football field.  He is only 5-10 and 218.  However, once the game is started you cant help but notice him.  Allen flies all over the field and is known to attack players out of nowhere in the backfield.  With explosive athleticism and a nose for the ball, Allen has turned the tides in games numerous times the previous year.

Chris Norman plays on the weakside and I like to describe him as a guy that can get end to end in a hurry.  This past year his highest tackle game was against UM.  He is good at covering in the flat and wraps players up to take them down.  I really enjoy Norman.

Max Bullough  is better at pass coverage than Greg Jones was and you notice that in the amount of times teams pass short 5 yarders over us.  Along with that however, is the fact that our DL has been getting more pressure on and allowing Bullough to be in pass coverage more, as opposed to the constand blitz.  Bullough's ability to hit is not be overlooked.  He is a big kid and will stick anyone in the middle.  He is less explosive than Allen or Norman but is the leader on defense.  When out there you can tell he loves playing the game.  Along with that, he went to the same high school as Pat and I.  Max had 89 tackles last year with 7 tackles for loss. This tackle total should continue and I would expect Max to add a few INTs into the mix

From here there is a varied group of young and talented players led by Darien Harris, Taiwan Jones and TyQuan Hammock. Kyler Elsworth saw some serious action last year including a blocked punt against Wisconsin. Steve Gardiner is another player that will see action. Finally Ed Davis is a RS frosh that will see times on special teams.


2012 Outlook:

This looks to be the strength of the defense in my opinion.  The defense ends are a very strong unit for the Spartans but the LBs are that much better and deeper.  This unit can keep rolling lines at you to keep players fresh or leave their starters on the field (Bullough, Allen, Norman) and lock you up.  I expect this unit to lead the team to victories in tight games.  Look for Darien Harris to get a good amount of playing time and Kyler Elsworth to continue to impress both on special teams and in the time he gets at the LB spot. Taiwan Jones is another player to keep an eye on.  This unit is critical in stopping a player like Denard and is the biggest reason for our success against Michigan lately.  The linebackers will face a number of quarterbacks that are more than capable of running and will be tested throughout the year in games against UM, OSU, IU, NW and UN.   One first team all B1G is an expectation of mine from this group. 

Edge:

The edge here goes to MSU.  This might be the best single unit from top to bottom in the entire B1G.  Anything but big things would shock me here.

Michigan DTs

Ed Note: This is Pat projecting it, I am just posting it. Hopefully this will mean ill get my butt in gear to have MSU DT up tonight or tomorrow.


DT

Let's get the previews started!  Last season saw Michigan and MSU both enjoy great seasons defensively.  Michigan's defense had a miraculous turnaround from being one of the worst in the country to a top 20 squad.  MSU had a dominant defense that led to their appearance in the conference title game and bowl victory over the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs.  Both defenses were led up front by their defensive line and especially their defensive tackles. 

The 2011 Michigan team (team 132) had an interesting lineup at DT.  It looked something like this:

NT (the 1-tech): Sr Mike Martin with backup Will Campbell
DT (the 3-tech):  Walk-on Sr Will Henninger with Sr Ryan Van Bergen rotating into this spot. 

Depth was provided by Sophomore Quinton Washington who saw occasional snaps.  The Wolverines just saw Mike Martin drafted in the third round (the highest Wolverine drafted) and will need to replace both his production and leadership. 

The depth chart above shows just why defensive tackle is a huge question mark for Michigan entering the season.  Luckily, Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison are both defensive line coaches and there are some talented big men ready to step in and produce up front.

The contenders for playing time:

NT (the 1-tech): Will Campbell (Sr) Richard Ash (So) Ondre Pipkins (Fr)
DT (the 3-tech): Jibreel Black (Jr) Quinton Washington (Jr) Nathan Brink (Walk-on Jr)

The big question that needs to be answered is can Will Campbell finally live up to his massive hype?  Can he at least be a productive Big Ten player?  He has shown flashes in the past and has the size and athleticism to be a standout but his technique and effort are concerns.  Like many tall DT's, Campbell has shown a great tendency to stand up at the snap of the ball.  If he can keep his pad level down he could turn himself into an NFL player.  How often does a guy enter his senior year and you aren't sure if he's going to end up being drafted or if he's going to lose his starting spot and never pan out?  A rare case indeed. 

Michigan does have bodies at these positions.  Richard Ash has gotten some positive reviews out of spring practice and likely will contribute and get regular snaps.  JIbreel Black moving inside from the 5-tech to the 3-tech makes Michigan a little smaller up front but gives them great speed, athleticism and versatility.  Washington and Ash could both end up playing the nose or the 3-tech. 

Pat's prediction:

At the nose, Campbell starts the year and while he has some growing pains he is a solid Big Ten starter.  He won't put up big numbers but will eat up space and blockers allowing other defenders to be more effective.  Ondre Pipkins proves to simply be too good to keep on the bench and gets 10-15 snaps per game by the end of the year.  The other DT position sees a rotation of guys coming in and out and has some issues in run defense but is productive in rushing the passer.

Overall I think this unit will cause some frustration if they cannot hold the line of scrimmage against big offensive lines that run downhill but I think they'll be quite effective against spread teams.   This is the greatest concern for Michigan's defense heading into 2012 and while it is unlikely to be a great strength, the potential for production is there.

Welcome back!

Where the hell have I been?  Obviously not on here posting.  ---- Work sucks, stay in school forever kids.  However, I must thank my Michigan State University education for preparing me for my current career. 

A lot has happened since mine and Pat's last post, obviously I wont even attempt to recap that all here.  However, I will mention one commit.  Shane Jones, an OLB out of Cincinnati Moeller High School.  Shane is listed at 6-1 215 pounds.  Scout has him as a 3 star, Rivals as a 4 star and ESPN has him unranked.  Something to note are the offers.  Arizona, BC, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma and Michigan.  That's a pretty hefty list which hints that this kid has talent.  What is most important is that MSU seems to be developing a bit of a pipeline out of Moeller, I will take that all day.

Here is an update on Burbridge from Chris Solari of the Lansing State Journal -Hey Joe! "Top MSU 2012 recruit Aaron Burbridge continues to work toward qualifying academically -- and no matter what rumor you hear between now and then, that won't be determined until he's done with summer school. Burbridge is doing very well so far this semester, Farmington Hills Harrison coach John Herrington said Thursday.

    I caught up with Herrington at the Duffy Daugherty Memorial Award ceremony. He said Burbridge has a solid ACT score but still can take it two more times, and improvement there could alleviate some of the GPA increase needed.      Bottom line: Burbridge has work to do, there's hope he can make it but it all depends on what he does in the next few months. Herrington has no doubt Burbridge, a talented receiver and the No. 1 recruit in the state, can help MSU right away if he qualifies."

Interesting.  Especially if he really has the talent to play right away.  One thing to note out of the MSU spring game draft is that Andre Sims Jr. was the first WR taken, followed by converted cornerback and running back Jeremy Langford, third was DeAnthony Arnett. I understand one reason Arnett was deafted third is that he is still learning the offense.  Sims Jr being drafted first speaks a lot to his speed and play making ability, I think Langford is in that same boat.  Both are burners and Langford has a little more size than Sims Jr. Double interesting.   NOTE: The MSU spring game is tomorrow, Saturday on the BTN.

Tomorrow night, look for me to try to make sense of the NCAA college football playoff here on On Rivalries.

Go Green!

Will He Stay or Will He Go?

The rumors are swirling all around Trey Burke.  The most recent scuttle is that he's leaving.

Michigan is bringing in unheralded recruit (he's a little white guy) Spike Albrecht for a recruiting visit today (Thursday).  If offered, he's likely a Wolverine as Michigan would be by far his best offer.

Burke leaving would be a killer and a guy like Albrecht would at least give Michigan a ball-handler, even if he's outmatched in Big Ten basketball.  Burke is a notoriously hard worker and deserves his chance at the NBA.  I wish him all the luck in the world and still holding out that sliver of hope that he'll come back.

The big question here, is Beilein to blame for the glaring weakness at PG on next year's roster?  I don't think so.  Darius Morris, had he stayed, would be entering his Sr year or leaving for the NBA draft after a great Jr season.  There's no way that both Burke and Morris would have seen enough minutes to both be able to leave this season.  The only possible way this could transpire was if Morris left too early and Burke was a one-and-done after being a 3 star recruit to most of the world.  In other words, this is a crazy situation where a chain of unlikely events has caused a gaping hole on the roster.  Michigan brings in Derrick Walton in 2013 and he'll come in and be an instant starter just like Burke.  He's good, but there's a year gap before he arrives.

My guess at the rotation gets a huge makeover if Burke leaves.  I think there could even be a lineup of Stauskas, Hardaway, Robinson as the starting 1/2/3 which would lack any one great ballhandler but would have three long, capable athletes to each share some of the responsibility of getting the ball up the court.  None of these guys could really defend PG's 1 on 1 on the perimeter so I think you'll see a lot more zone from Michigan as they have gotten so much longer and athletic. 

We should find out more definitively on Burke in the next few days.

B1G Hoops

Let's wrap up the season

For Michigan, a first round exit from the tournament was a disappointment but you hang the banner for the Big Ten championship and look back on this season as the one where Michigan's basketball program established itself as a regular contender.  Michigan's program has not been in a place where any reasonable fan can be disappointed with a Big Ten championship and a first round NCAA tournament exit.  But now, maybe the program has reached that level.  It has been significant, what these guys have done.  The banner goes up and the future looks brighter than ever.

Here's where I give thanks to Zack and Stu, one unranked out of high school, the other a two star.  Three NCAA tournament appearances and a Big Ten championship during their four seasons at Michigan.  A great run by any measure.  

I remember reading countless message board posts about 15 months ago (Michigan was off to a horrendous start to Big Ten play during the 2011 season) suggesting different names for who should be Michigan's next basketball coach.  One and a half seasons later and the program is in a better spot than it's been in two decades.  Amazing how fast things can change.  I'd wager that Beilein's approval rating would be rather high right now. (Insert Derrick Nix joke here?)

The future is bright, but it also contains some great questions and concerns.  Immediately following the loss to the Bobcats, Michigan lost three players to transfer.  The loss of Evan Smotcryz is a significant one as his ability to stretch the floor and shoot from distance as a PF was a key ingredient in JB's offense the past couple of season.  Evan was a player who could wow you with his potential but never seemed to put it together on both ends of the floor.  He was always a liability defensively.  Still, his loss, along with the departures of Novak and Douglass will be felt next season.  Luckily Michigan has it's best recruiting class in over a decade to help restock the roster with talent.

Speaking of that recruiting class.  I really like all three players.  I think Nik Stauskas could surprise as a JJ Redick clone.  He may finally be the heralded three point shooter who simply doesn't miss if he's open.  Big Dog Jr will probably come in and be the biggest contributor from day 1.  He will immediately be Michigan's best athlete on the floor with his length and explosiveness.  And the final piece is Mitch McGary, the once #2 rated prospect in the country who has fallen off a bit after his senior year wasn't as good as his AAU season.   I'm not sure if McGary can play the 4 in Beilein's offense so he will probably battle for minutes with Morgan and Horford at the 5 and get some minutes at the 4 as well.  I expect Trey Robinson to start the 4 from day 1 when he steps on campus.  He'll be battling against redshirt freshman Max Beifeldt and his buddy McGary for that spot.

There is one question that still remains and that is Trey Burke, will he stay or will he go?  I think it would be another poor decision by a Michigan athlete if he leaves, but after Manny and Darius the last two seasons I have given up trying to predict young men's decisions based on logic.  He'll do what he wants and Michigan will adjust.  If he returns, Michigan is probably a top ten team.  If he leaves...Michigan will struggle to make the NCAA tournament with no ball handler on the roster.

Here's an early look at how I think Michigan's rotation shakes out (assuming Burke returns)

PG: Burke (35 minutes) Akunne (5)
SG: Nik Stauskas (25) Matt Vogrich (10) Tim Hardaway Jr (5)
SF: Hardaway (25) Glenn Robinson Jr (10) Vogrich (5)
PF: Robinson (20) Beifeldt (15) McGary (5)
C: Morgan (15) McGary (15) Horford (10)

I think a starting lineup of Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Robinson and Morgan gives Michigan the best blend of experience, athleticism and shooting ability.  I'm excited about the development of Horford and Beifeldt and can't wait to see what they can do this season.  McGary is an X-factor and if JB feels he can play the 4, you could see Stauskas move to the bench with Hardaway and Burke in the backcourt and Robinson at the 3.  The most striking thing about next year's lineup is that no matter how you look at it Michigan is all of a sudden, big, long and athletic.  No longer will Michigan enter a game as an athletic mismatch who will have to out-shoot it's opponents to win.  They will be able to beat lesser teams by overpowering them with athleticism.

That green team

Draymond Green's amazing run at Michigan State ended with a loss in the sweet 16.  For MSU, expectations are great and result in feeling disappointed at the end to a great season.  I think Spartan fans should look on this season with great appreciation for what their team accomplished after such a difficult 2011.

Michigan State is going to be a top 10 team in 2013 and I am curious to see how minutes shake out in the backcourt.  Gary Harris is too good to keep off the floor, so Appling is probably going to have to play a lot at the point again next season.  I think MSU should really look to push the ball next season when Dawson returns and Harris joins the fold.  I'm not sure if MSU will be as good as they were this year but they have the potential to be extremely fun to watch.

The B1G is going to be scary good again next year...

Take a look at this way-too-early ranking of NCAA basketball teams for 2013.  If you don't want to look, Andy Katz and company have Indiana #1, OSU #5, MSU #7 and Michigan #8.  4 of the top 8?  IU as the #1 overall team?  And I thought the Big Ten was a brutally tough conference to win in this season...