Catching Up With Catching Up

Writing and previewing all the B1G bball games that MSU plays is hard to do.  Even if they have not played in nearly week.  MSU should go into Iowa and crush them.  Though Iowa played Indiana down to the wire.  A lot of writers are calling this a must win.  Including The Only Colors and Joe Rexrode.  Sure it's a must win, but you can win other games too.  Let's say MSU looses this game, what if they run the table the rest of the way?  For MSU to win this game, they need to run and out athlete Iowa.  With that, they need to keep the turnover machine low.

That is for you guys to discuss. 

I wish Will Gholston took advice from whomever gave Taylor Lewan advice because Taylor is coming back.

With regards to players going to the NFL. It is a good net benefit for MSU to send players to the NFL, especially if they play.  I can see Sims having the best pro career out of Bell, Gholston and Sims.  Regardless, it has to be a good selling point to recruits that MSU is sending them to the NFL. Although, winning 11 games and going to the Rose Bowl would have helped too. 

I have been thinking about writing a lengthy MSU v. UM nfl draft article.  I PROMISE to get it up this weekend. 

Bowling for Chicken Wings

Back again.  Back both for the blog and for the bowls.  This game is kind of a big deal.  7-6 vs. 6-7.  No one wants to be below .500  at one point over on The Only Colors (before the Nebraska game had ended) that 6-5 would be no different than 7-4.  Well, with that, there is a huge difference between being above .500 or below.   Recruits want to play for a winning team, it looks better for future bowl games, and it puts you in a more positive light on national media spots.   I dont want to listen to Herbstreet talk about how we blew it this year.  I would rather hear about redemption, or salvation, or whatever winning this game would mean.

What will have happened through the bowl practices to put MSU in a position to win?  The first thing is that the passing game needs to come together.  With all the extra reps, hopefully any issues that were prevalent through the season (drops, miss communication) are sorted out.  Along with that, the offense line should have tightened up.  That will help execute in the pocket.  More time to drop back = more time for the receivers to get open.

A second point will be what kind of change will Bell have made to benefit him?  He tweeted that he plans to play at his lightest since his freshman year.  Will this be a good a thing?  It seems like he is best when he can absorb blows and get yards after contact.  The TCU defense will be attacking the line to try to drop Bell in the back field.  Hopefully the lightened load means more speed and more shift.  My biggest complaint about Bell this year is that he would miss cuts up the field to try to get the edge.  He would either get that edge or get dropped on the sideline.  But those cuts he was missing looked like he could break a long one.  I would have to assume that a lighter Bell can make those cuts, and accelerate through the hole.

Now what about the defense?  Johnny Adams has turf toe, Lawrence Thomas is playing on the defensive line, and Gholston needs to play like his preseason hype.   The defense should be well prepared for TCU as they run a similar offense to Northwestern and Nebraska.  Their backup quarterback has struggled this year when he had to come in mid season.  The extra practices should eliminate that.  MSU got burned defensively by Nebraska but was able to limit Northwestern.  What will show up for this game?

With Maxwell coming in looking to silent his critics, (especially those on message boards) he comes in and tosses 2 touchdowns and no turnovers.  Bell has a solid game but the lighter load will leave him getting tackled on hits he used to turn for 3 yard gains.  Call this one 24-17 MSU

Northwestern Recap

This won't be much of a recap.  After the loss I was pretty shocked.   There is not a lot to say at this point.  We have lost 7 games by 4 points or less.  Outside of that, what else can you say?  Some fans are calling for Roushar to be fired.  These people are morons.  Some fans think that we should bench Maxwell and get Cook out there.  These people are bigger morons.  If MSU makes a hand full of field goals, we have a couple extra wins.  No one is yelling for MSU to cut the kicker.  On top of that, the offense has looked pretty solid recently especially in the second half of the Northwestern game.  MSU averaged about 4.5 yards per play in this game.  However they had 5 turnovers.  You won't win many games with 5 turnovers. Right now, I cannot pick MSU to be beat Minnesota, regardless of what the Vegas line is.  Coach D has spoke countless times this season about being resilient.  I guess we will see what happens. 

I had grand plans to write a full recap but I just can't, this is all you get. 

So how about those Terrapins?

Reduce Reuse Recycle Recap

Finally a win.  A win that MSU closed out.  That was nice to see.  I thought the MSU offense played well enough.  Obviously, it was not a great offensive show, but they were able to move the ball at times before ultimately doing something boneheaded.  Joe Rexode touches on that with his Monday Mail Bag.

 -I watched a good portion of the PSU/OSU game.  PSU played a solid game, but seemed to abandon the run game.  I think that ultimately did them in.  Not sure if Belton was injured or what.  Braxton was impressive in tearing apart a very good PSU defense.  That just might show how good the MSU defense actually is more than any other stat.

-From there, it was time to watch the um/Nebraska game.  I got to tell Pat about Denard's injury over the phone, that was about the most gratifying thing I have got to do this football season. Without Robinson, um was punchless.  The game wasn't really interesting outside of a few drives and seeing what um could do without Denard.  um fans will be pleased to know that Robinson will be the starter this weekend.

-To close out the game, Maxwell made one great pass after another and Bell was able to bounce around for 4-6 yard gains.  I think that our receivers may have finally turned a corner.  There was no Burbridge in this game, but that's OK.  Fowler is the man, and he showed it at times in this game.  Also, Lippet showed why I have been so high on him, from his sky high grab to his juke to the one yard line.  Personally, I really enjoyed seeing Thomas get some open field to run in.  A fumble certainly wasn't pleasant, but man, I would not want to tackle him.  The defense was really stout in this game as well.  MSU was able to hold Wisconsin to 19 yards rushing (net) and 190 yards total.  Gholston finally had a game that MSU has needed all year with 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack.  Along with that, one hit knocked Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave out of for the season with a broken clavicle.

This play below, I remember seeing and screaming at the T.V.  It did not get called.

(mary langenfeld, uspresswire. via twitter of chris vannini)

I still don't think that the Wisconsin defense is that great.  One play in particular stuck out in my head on a pass deflection to a mostly wide open Bell.  Other than that, I think MSU mostly killed their own drives.  Don't get me wrong, they are a good defense, but the B1G features a handful of better defense's.

Next week MSU has Nebraska at home.  A game I will be at.  Maybe I can get some pictures from the game and any sort of EL related activities I do on here.  Sound good?

Singing Tough - A Prediction

As Pat noted in the comments, I forgot to get my preview up.  Blame it on the rain.  Or staying out way later than anticipated. Today MSU is playing in a game labeled as a rivalry.  However, MSU and Wisconsin will not meet again for 4 years, unless they are in the B1G championship game.

OFFENSE:  Same story different day.  Just like every game I say, MSU needs to get the ball early and score on that first drive.  The crowd in Wisconsin is gonna be as loud as they have been all year.  Halloween weekend.  I do not see Bell having a good game in this one.  But MSU will look to get him going early and too often. MSU will need to go airborne to win this game and score points.  I like the matchups our receivers have against the Wisconsin secondary.  Wisconsin has not been too impressive defensively and Maxwell should look to get Sims going early.  Can our re-re-re-re-re-revamped line hang tough?

(the new starting offensive line)

DEFENSE:  L-I-V-I-N that's what our defense needs to do.  Just keep on keeping on.  Whatever else you can say.  There have been some writings about the defense, that there is potential for a divided locker room.  With the defense playing so well and the offense playing so poorly.  I don't see that happening, and I don't see the defense letting up.   Gholston will play his best game of the year and our defense will do a good job of limiting Montee Ball. 

PREDICTION:  The story here isn't how well our defense can play it's how many points can our offense score?  Right now, there is no reason to believe they will score any points.  Call it 20-13 Wisconsin.

Links for Zelda

Sorry, I couldnt think of a better way to name this post.  Still not in the mood for a full post, but expect my Wiscon prediction tomorrow.  Here are some MSU related links:

Recruiting: Ex-Michigan commit David Dawson likely to visit Michigan State
-Seems like a solid recruit, would be nice if he came to MSU.  Pat, do you have any insight as to why he decommitted?

Michigan State 'better be ready to play every game' to reach a bowl
-My sentiments exactly. 

Michigan State, Wisconsin rivalry still strong
-Would we call this a rivalry at this point?  Will it still be one if they thump us by 2 scores?

Michigan State hope Dion Sims can lift struggling offense From The Detroit News
-We could have used Dion last week.  We did look a lot better throwing the ball without him though.

MSU's Max Bullough nominated for Butkus Award as nation's top linebacker From The Detroit News:
-I still cannot believe he played for Traverse City St. Francis.  I know Pat wants him to leave early.

Game Week Q&A: Bucky's 5th Quarter
-Chris Vannini and TOC have a little Q&A with their partner Wisconsin blog. 

Enjoy your Thursday everyone, hopefully the Tigers even it up tonight.

The State of State

Right now, I cannot even pretend to have anything to be happy about for the Spartans.  OK...OK, I can be happy about the defense.  We have the best defense in the B1G.  We hold the Michigan offense without a touchdown, and lose though.  This makes me very sad.  So where are our Spartans right now?

Well, to cover the obvious stuff, MSU is 4-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference.  Winning out would put MSU at 8-4 and 5-3 in the conference.  After the first half of the season ended, I projected this is where we would end up. 

Right now, the offense is playing like a team that's uneven.  At times our running game looks good, at time our passing game looks good, at times our blocking looks good.  Rarely do they all synch up together.  I will contribute a lot of this to the injured offensive line.  The lack of continuity has made it hard to develop a pattern and trust in the trenches.  I has been great at developing younger players though.  So look out 2013!  The line play dictates a lot of what you can do in the run game, Bell has managed a solid season with some highlight reel plays.  He seems to get three yards every time he touches the ball.  The problem is, he has not been gashing defenses for HUGE chunks of yards.  This could be a product of being used too much.  After injuring his knee against UM, Bell called to come out, he did not, got the ball for the next carry, and promptly stumbled after the handoff.  We need Caper to get the ball sometimes.  Lastly for offense, once the receivers starting dropping the ball nothing good could  happen.  Now that they are catching the ball and making athletic plays doing it, we might finally see some points scored.

A lot has been said about the defense and their inability to close out games.  But when you hold teams to 12, 19, 16, you need to win those games.  I don't care if you gave up one last drive at the end, you stopped plenty more before that.  The worst thing I can see from this is that defense gives up its edge.  MSU can rely on it's defense for only so long.  I cannot find a lot of words for our defense, they have done a great job all year.  A few more turnovers would be nice, but I will take so few touchdowns allowed. 

Right now, MSU has a huge game looming against Wisconsin.  This is the game where blocking, running and passing need to link up and show some muscle.  After that we have Nebraska at home (which I will be at).  Go 2-0 over these games and get to the bye (off?) week.  To me, MSU is still a bowl team, it would be a real shame to not make one.  So that is where MSU is right now, a lot of unbalanced performances from the offense, solid play from the defense, and a deflated blogger. 

MSU/um Prediction

So here we are.  The Apex of hate week, or is this the down fall?  Or is the game the Apex?  I'm not sure, regardless tomorrow, tomorrow is the day.  House vs. House.  Brother vs. Sister. Blogger vs. Blogger. After Saturday, there will be a new background here on the blog as Pat and I have an going wager that the blogger winner gets to pick the new background. I don't want to lose this. 

OFFENSE:  Well, where to begin.  First of all, we need to score. That is probably the biggest thing for MSU, but how do we get there?  Bell needs to get going and he needs to get going early.  MSU has no room for error early in the game.  This um fan base is rabid for a win over MSU, that way they can wave it in our face and say things in an East Coast accent.  The whole of the MSU offense needs to have a stellar game.  The offensive line needs to block, the receivers to need to be crisp and fast, and our running backs need to be bruising.  Up front is where this game will be decided.  The MSU line is depleted and has been performing that way.  um will look to get in and attack Maxwell, so the line needs to perform.  With that, I do expect MSU to put together some drives to start, with Burbridge coming ready and Caper providing a nice option for Maxwell in the pass game out of the backfield.

DEFENSE:  So far, the MSU defense has played well.  If our offense kicks a field goal in the games against OSU and Iowa, we likely win. The last two games against michigan, the MSU defense has been able to limit Denard.  Pat calls them the worst games Denard has ever played.  I guess he forgets about Notre Dame and Alabama this year.  However, that is the  key to beat um.  Limit the plays the Denard is making.  In the past, Norman has been very successful in beating Denard to the edge and, when needed, getting into coverage across the middle.  This year, Norman appears to have bulked up and lost a step, losing a lot of playing time to Taiwan Jones.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, but is still the key.  We need our outside linebackers to be able to bottle up the rushers and defend against those short passes that make a drive. Opportunities for Denard to throw the ball down field will be there, it would be foolish for this offense to not take its chances.  The front 7 needs to make Denard uncomfortable in the pocket, keep him guessing as to where to run, where to throw.  Like the offense, the Defense needs to be flawless. If there is an opportunity for the interception, there cannot be a drop.  When tackling, an arm tackle will not work. 

PREDICTION:  So far, I have predicted MSU to win every game this year.  Do you see a pattern?  I like our chances, in this game, but I like our chances in every game. With this defense how could you not like our chances?  However, with this offense how can you ever pick for us?  Currently michigan is a 10 point favorite.  Is that too high?  I fully expect the um offense and defense to come hyped for this game.  michigan will likely have its first lively crowd since 90's.  As I mentioned, MSU needs to get into this early. Now is the time to shake off the slow starts and silence this um crowd.  Let our friends over in ann arbor know that we own this State now.  Look for these teams to throw a few punches early before settling into a groove.  However, this MSU offense is not nearly good enough to score enough points to win.  I am gonna call this one: 24-20 um.

Q/A with Chris Vannini

Pat learned so much in school at Michigan that I have to post for him.

 

Here is a Q/A with Chris Vannini, the managing editor of the MSU blog The Only Colors.  You can follow Chris on twitter at @chrisvannini

Below, Pat's questions for Chris will be in bold/blue.  

5 serious questions concerning Saturday:

1. Last season Michigan State had some injury issues on the offensive line and I believe ended up starting either former walk-ons or guys who recently switched over from the defensive line.  While the line had some issues early in the season things seemed to really come together as the year went on (especially in the Michigan game)  I went into the game last year thinking MSU's Oline was a train wreck only to watch them dominate the line of scrimmage against a pretty stout Michigan defensive line.  Can they do that again or are the issues this season much worse than last year? 
 

It's hard to tell. This year's team has lost the top two linemen in center Travis Jackson and right tackle Fou Fonoti, and struggled mightily against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They even had problems against Eastern Michigan and Indiana. They seem to be getting a little bit better overall, having a decent, but not great, performance against Iowa. Based on what I've seen, Michigan's defensive line has gotten close to where it was last year, while the linebackers are a lot better. If MSU wants to spring any big runs, they're going to need to get some blocks in the second level, something they've struggled to do this year.

2. The Spartans have faced Denard Robinson as the starter twice in his career and twice he has played arguably his worst game of the season against Michigan State.  For all his stats and accomplishments, is Denard Robinson overrated?    

He's not overrated, at least not in my opinion. That may be because I haven't considered him a legitimate Heisman candidate outside of the start in 2010. That said, he is what makes college football great. So many different schemes, types of players and whatnot. The NFL is basically the same bland stuff (which is why Michael Vick is overrated). College football is full of variety, and it's always fun to see competing ideals and strategies face off. Denard Robinson won't be a quarterback in the NFL. That doesn't mean he's not a good college quarterback. He picks up yards and wins games (mostly without any help). Yeah, he has struggled against most of the best opponents he has played, but that's the case with many players. MSU rarely runs the ball well in its big games. He is what he is. He's electrifying, he's frustrating, but he's what college football is all about.

3. Other than the emphasis placed on the rivalry by the coaching staff, is there a schematic reason Dantonio has been so successful against Michigan?  And as a follow up to question #2, is there a schematic (or other) reason that Pat Narduzzi's defense has owned Denard and Michigan's offense the previous two seasons? 

The blueprints to stop Denard Robinson are there, but only a few teams have the personnel to get away with them. Alabama sat back and let Denard use his arm, while MSU puts him under tremendous pressure. It's schematic, but only because they have the players to do it. Most teams can't get away with what MSU or Alabama do on defense. Pat Narduzzi's first few defenses at MSU were really bad, but once he got his players in, they fit the bill, and the schemes that seemed so bad now seem so good. There certainly are weakness. There are no perfect defenses, but with a limited offense like Michigan's, you can cover up the holes easier.

4. Cracks in the D...while the overall numbers look good it seems like MSU's defense has had difficulties making the key play or stop in the 4th quarter.  While there might be a few explanations (maybe they are on the field longer and for more possessions due to the offensive ineptitude?) is there an issue with the defense?  As it pertains to this Saturday, do you believe MSU's defense is better, the same, or worse than the version last season that faced the Wolverines?

I'm in the camp that isn't putting much heat on this group. They're actually giving up fewer yards and points than a year ago, although obviously the opposition is weaker. They've given up second-half leads to Ohio State and Iowa, but allowing 17 and 13 points in regulation, respectively, should be enough to win. If MSU has just an average offense, the few mistakes on defense aren't as noticed. 

The defense isn't as good as last year, no. It's for a variety of reasons (and I don't think "press clippings" are one of them). Other teams have figured out how to scheme against Narduzzi (like you would with anything you see every year), the pass rush isn't nearly as good, and the blitzes are getting picked up more. The rush from the line has been slow to develop, as Jerel Worthy isn't there to blow up a play before it starts. Still, this is a top-10 defense in the country. That's plenty good enough. They need help.

5. Is MSU is capable of beating Michigan on Saturday if they don't win the turnover battle?  

Sure, as long as it's a close difference. If one of the turnovers is in your own red zone or a pick-six or something, that obviously will go a long way toward a victory. They can win without a turnover edge, but they just can't be crippling turnovers. I don't think it will be a high-scoring one. Iowa's turnover last week on their side of the field lead to a TD, while MSU's turnover ended the game. So it's all about the context. That seems like a simple answer, because it is.

And 3 fun questions about the rivalry in general:

1. Throughout your Spartan fandom and when it comes to playing Michigan, which loss was the most crushing?
 

I have to admit, I was a U-M fan growing up until high school. I didn't have a real reason for it, but I grew up in suburban Detroit, and that's just what everyone was back then. I started to switch when I realized I wanted to go into writing, and U-M didn't have a journalism school. To my surprise, U-M didn't admit me anyway, and that made my college choice much easier. (Long story as to why I wasn't admitted, but I don't need to get into it. Ended up being the best thing to happen to me). So my choices on this are limited to one game: 2007, my freshman year. 

That had been a frustrating year with all the close losses, an you began to wonder how much different the Mark Dantonio era would be from JLS. We obviously all know what happened that night. After MSU went up by 10, I told the guy in front of me to double Mario Manningham all night. Don't let him pull a Braylon. He sorta did, and then all the stuff afterward. After not getting into the school (even if I wasn't going to go anyway), it was a punch in the gut. I had some U-M friends, they let me have it, and that might have been my christening as a Spartan fan. Still the worst loss I've gone through. What Mark Dantonio had to say in the next few days showed me that things weren't going to continue the way they were. And he was right.

2. Which Victory over the Wolverines has tasted the sweetest? 

It's close between 2008 and 2010, but I'm going to go with 2010 because of the hype leading up to it. Breaking the losing streak in 08 was more a sense of relief than anything. In 2010, with the Denard Robinson Heisman talk and the "Michigan's back" blah blah blah stuff, shutting people up was definitely the sweetest victory. I was sitting next to a major douchebag at that one, and when he left after the third quarter, the party began. We were surrounded by mostly MSU fans, so we had some fun with cheers and taunts and everything. An old lady called me the best fan of the game. So that was cool.

3. Would you trade winning the B1G for beating Michigan?  Or put another way, how much does the success of every season hinge on the game with the Wolverines?  

No way. Times have changed. The days of a win over U-M making the season are long gone. That's because the expectations have changed. MSU expects to make a good bowl game, expects to compete for the Big Ten championship and expects to be right there with Michigan every year. It's certainly treated unlike any other game, but in the last two years, you celebrate the win, then move on and continue fighting for a Big Ten championship. Their hopes of winning the Big Ten are all but dashed this year, but the U-M game can still be a turning point toward a decent season. A win Saturday wouldn't make up for the three losses already, but the hope is it would help right the ship.

The Facts: Statistics

Michigan's Season to Date
4-2
vs Alabama 41-14 L
vs Air Force 31-25 W
vs Massachusetts 63-13 W
@Notre Dame 13-6 L
@Purdue 44-13 W
vs Illinois 45-0 W

Michigan State's Season to Date 
4-3
vs Boise State 17-13 W
@Central Michigan 41-7 W
vs Notre Dame 20-3 L
vs Eastern Michigan 23-7 W
vs Ohio State 17-16 L
@Indiana 31-27 W
vs Iowa 19-16 L

Offense
Rushing O
Michigan: 17th (233)
Michigan State: 84th (144)

Passing O
Michigan: 104th (186)
Michigan State: 59th (236th)

Turnovers Lost
Michigan: 13
Michigan State: 8

Total O
Michigan: 55th (419)
Michigan State:  80th (380)

Scoring O
Michigan: 37th (34 points per game)
Michigan State: 102nd (21)



Defense
Rushing D
Michigan: 55th (148)
Michigan State: 8th (91)

Passing D
Michigan: 3rd (135)
Michigan State: 17th (179)

Turnovers Gained
Michigan: 10
Michigan State: 10

Total D
Michigan: 10th (283)
Michigan State: 7th (270)

Scoring D
Michigan: 23rd (18)
Michigan State: 14th (16)


When Michigan has the ball:
The #55 offense will be facing the #7th defense.  This will be a battle of strength on strength as the #8 rush defense attempts to slow down the #17 rushing offense.  MSU appears slightly more susceptible through the air while Michigan's offensive numbers in the passing game don't look so hot.  Sparty hasn't been able to create many turnovers on D this year (10 in 7 games) while Denard gave Notre Dame the ball 5 times in one contest.  This statistical battle points to the Spartans defense having an edge over the Wolverine offense.

When Michigan State has the ball:
The #80 offense will be facing the #10 defense.  Michigan's defense boasts gaudy numbers in pass defense (probably helped playing Air Force who rarely threw the football) while the MSU offense is surprisingly worse in the run game (84th) than in the pass game (59th).  Michigan has also been poor at creating turnovers on defense this year (only 10 through 6 games) and the Michigan State offense has done a relatively good job in this area only turning the ball over 8 times. This comparison shows a big advantage for the Michigan defense against the struggling Spartan offense.


Thoughts:

These stats look pretty good to a Michigan fan.  The defenses appear to be about on the same level and Michigan's offense is clearly better statistically than the Sparty O.   Turnovers are my biggest worry for Saturday. It's difficult to envision Michigan creating more than 1 or 2 and Denard scares me versus good defenses.  If we get good Denard, the version who takes care of the football and doesn't try to make a play on every play, the guy who runs and runs and only throws it to wide open receivers, I don't see many scenarios working in the Spartans favor.  Denard, however, hasn't proven that he can do this very consistently and thus we wait with bated breath.

Weekend Recap

So I didn't watch as much college football as I normally would with the Tigers playoff game against the Yankees.  I did catch all of the Spartan game and did watch a portion of the UM game, until you know, it was apparent that game wasn't turning around for the Illini

- The Wolverines certainly appear to be the team to beat in Legends division.  The offense is firing on all cylinders at this point after games against Purdue and Illinois.  Even though those are not the strongest teams in the conference, these are the games you need to put points up in and get all the mojo going.  Those previous two weeks were the perfect games leading up to the MSU game.  Toussaint finally got going along with Robinson the pass game game looked solid enough and the confidence could not be higher for the Wolverines. 

- On the other end of the spectrum are my Spartans.  In a rain soaked game the Spartans managed a measly  16 points against an exceptionally mediocre, though leading the Legends division, Iowa Hawkeye team (back handed compliment of the week).  I don't really have a lot to say but I will.  Early on, Bell got moving pretty well, the defense looked like they were ready to play and the Spartan's appeared to be on their way to rolling the Hawkeyes.  Unfortunately, that did not happen.  Maxwell missed a few passes, one in particular was sailed over Burbridge in the endzone.  Burbridge maybe could have done more to wiggle open, but without a doubt, had Maxwell thrown that ball into his body, that was a touchdown.  Of course, there was the end of the first half botched field goal.  After a couple nice plays to get the ball into FG range, all things brokw down.  Players were running on the field, some were running off, Bell tried to clock the ball, then the half was over.  In a way, that play has summarized the Spartans play so far this year.  Some great plays, followed by a mess, and then hoping Bell can carry us.

Getting to a bowl game at this point looks like it will be a struggle.  I have to imagine the MSU team is very deflated coming into UM and there is no doubt that the Wolverines are ready.  Right now, that looks like it will end up being an ugly game. I said we should go 4-2 for the secong half, already we are are 0-1.  We need this win against UM.

 

(Just because its hate week.  Bite me.)

Bowl Game?

I hope the players like this come December:

 

Its time to abort the season.  

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Tbone and I did a comparison in the preseason breaking down the individual units of each team and made some predictions.  With the big rivalry game only a couple weeks away we now have a lot more information about where our predictions stack up.

Looking Back

The Comparison: Offense

Summary:

QB: Michigan (Big)

• Despite Denard's major issues in South Bend this prediction appears true.  Maxwell has looked pretty solid and appears to have major upside but Robinson has been dominant on the ground in all of Michigan's wins.  Let's say this prediction was accurate though maybe we should erase that (big).

RB: Push

• Ha.  Le'veon Bell has proven himself to be the best back in the B1G while Fitz Toussaint hasn't really gotten going yet this season.  This is a big advantage for the Spartans through the first half of the season. 

WR/TE:  Tbone says Push, Pat says Michigan

• Dion Sims dominance and Aaron Burbridge's emergence notwithstanding this comparison solidly goes to the Wolverines so far.  Jeremy Gallon has proven to be a legitimate go-to slot, Devin Gardner has emerged as a big play WR and Devin Funchess has exploded onto the scene as an absolute mismatch.

OL: Tbone says Push, Pat says Michigan

• MSU has been ravaged by injuries along the offensive line.  This is probably the single most disappointing unit for the Spartans thus far in 2012.  Michigan's offensive line is coming off a dominant performance against Purdue which followed up an impressive 2nd half against the Fighting Irish. 
  

2012 Statistics:

Total Offense:
MSU: 79th, 389 ypg
UM:  73rd 397 ypg

Scoring Offense:
MSU:98th, 22 ppg
UM: 48th, 32 ppg

The Comparison: Defense

Summary:

DT:  PUSH (both teams have unknowns here)

• This is interesting.  Through the first three weeks of the season I would have easily said Michigan State has been better in this category but Michigan's defensive line has made massive improvements against Notre Dame and Purdue.  Their play has me very encouraged.  I haven't seen every snap for the Spartans but I'm going to say small edge MSU here. 

DE:  MSU

• While the Gholston hype hasn't translated to the field much, Marcus Rush has played well.  Michigan hasn't gotten a ton of statistical production from their defensive ends but they have gotten solid play from Craig Roh.  This is closer to a push than we thought in the preseason. 

LB:  MSU

• Jake Ryan has been an all-B1G performer and the best player on Michigan's defense.  After a slow start, Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan have come on in recent weeks (due in no small part to the improvements with the defensive tackles).  I believe that MSU has the best linebacker unit in the conference but Michigan's backers are much improved over recent years. We got this one about right and both have very good units here. 

Safety:   Split, Tbone gives it to his Spartans, Pat to the Wolverines.

• I have no idea how the Sparty safeties have played this season.  I like Jordan Kovacs and Thomas Gordon has been solid throughout the year.  

CB:  MSU (with the caveat that the nickel and the depth favor the Wolverines)

• Blake Countess went down very early in the season and the depth we spoke of came into play immediately.  Johnny Adams has had some ups and downs so far this season.  To date I'd say this has been a small edge for MSU but I could be persuaded otherwise. 

2012 Statistics:


Total Defense:
MSU: 8th, 272 yards per game
Michigan: 19th, 312 yards per game

Scoring Defense:
MSU: 15th, 15 ppg
Michigan: 37th, 21 ppg


Projecting the Future

Both of our squads have underachieved so far in 2012.  Michigan has done so by getting trounced by Alabama and having far too many turnovers in their other games while MSU has just plain struggled offensively.  The struggles have taken off a little luster from the matchup on October 20th but the game will still likely determine who heads to Indy to represent the Legends division.  Looking at the breakdown above it looks like a game that will be closely contested.  We will find out a little more this week and then get down to making some predictions next week.

I hope the Wolverine's don't have a letdown against Illinois on Saturday because they are looking ahead to the Spartans.  A a blogger I don't have to worry about that so I am free to look ahead to the game with the Spartans and man I'm getting excited...

MSU vs. Indiana

I am still working on my promised follow up to my post last week.  What does John Lennon say?  Life is what happens while youre busy making other plans.  Has there been a more anticipated week a more hotly debated week in MSU football since Dantonio took over?  Maybe the first year we played UM after the little brother game.  Maybe Last years B1G championship game.  Also, I hate these watch ESPN app commercials

OFFENSE:  This is why the weeks is anticipated.  MSU showed signs of life offensively against OSU even while scoring only 16 points.  Maxwell stayed poised in the pocket  delivered the ball on the money and for the most part his receivers  made plays.   With that, there is a new wrinkle  to the offense.  Aaron Burbridge was named a starter in place of the struggling Bennie Fowler.  KJ from the only colors thinks that this has a weird vibe.  I could not disagree more.  Aaron has come in as a highly recruiter wide receiver, Fowler has not been struggling to get it done.   Along with that, Dan Roushar has described Burbridge as being able to catch everything that is thrown his way.  That is exactly what we need.

DEFENSE:  Defensively, this MSU team has performed very well.  Like a keep saying, the defense is not going to win us games, we still need to score points. For this game at Indiana, MSU needs to come out ready to hit someone.  Gholston, this week, has given his play so far this year a "C". What is he going to do to change that?  Adams got beat on a perfectly thrown ball last week, will a play like that happen with a lesser quarterback?  For Gholston, look for him to be attacking,  I think he is hearing it from his coaches and is getting worked in practice, there should be a lot of effort out of him.  Look for Adams to have another strong game and even come up with an interception. 

Overall this is a game that MSU should end up winning comfortably.  To start, Indiana will move the ball well and tack on some field goals.  Opposing that will be the MSU offense and Burbridge.  I expect MSU to throw to him early and I think Indiana is keenly aware of that.  Look for Burbridge to be used a decoy for Bell to pop out on a little wheel route.  But what about Bell?  He had disappeared against OSU.  Bell will get going early as they use the run to set up the pass.  Bell should break the century mark and tack on some touchdowns in the second half.  Well call this game 28-13 MSU

Little Caesars

Hey Spartan fans, I hope you like pizza!

Week 4 Blahs

This is a lot like the dog days of summer.  You know that scene in Bruce Almighty where "Bruce" is controlling "Evans" mouth?  aslkjdfaosfwjljalsflk sfjsaljfnvlkanfasf

 

(http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/bruce-almighty-gif)

That is how I am going to describe the MSU performance over EMU. Or as my dad pointed out, the Emu's.  Get it?  No? It's a play on words. 

There was not a lot of positive to take out of it, other than our defense played OK and that Bell and Sims are the only thing keeping us from being 1-3.  MSU looks like the 4th best team in the B1G right now.  Behind OSU, Northwestern, Nebraska.  Penn State might be as good as us as well, they can certainly pass the ball 100% better.  Michigan I would put right about next to us as well. 

-University of Michigan (no the) did not fair any better than MSU did against Notre Dame.  Denard Robinson looked lost (MSU wide receiver level lost).  Three of those picks were just plain bad.  From what I can tell, Denard had room to scramble more on some of those picks, and maybe should have.  Maybe that is the problem with trying to be a "Michigan" quarterback.  Just be Denard, the best player in the B1G.  Instead of Denard, the less good version of Braxton Miller (I went there).  Along with that, the UM line did not live up to what it was once billed to be.  That has a lot to do with the Notre Dame front seven being full on legit.  Being a mostly outsider looking in on UM, every time I see UM struggle on offense, I think: why don't they just let Denard run the ball and get the juices flowing?

-Seriosuly though, Ohio State?  Theye might be the biggest enigma in the B1G even though they appear, right now, to be the best team.  For a team that was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the B1G, they love giving up points to wildly inferior opponents.  Along with that, the offense is all Braxton.  Take away his gashing run plays, and they are much less dynamic.  I will break things if MSU loses next week.  

-Penn State looked good against Temple.  Temple is a solid Big East team (better than Eastern).  Allen Robinson, looks like the best wide out in the B1G.  McGloin still makes some bone headed passes/attempted passes but seems a lot more accurate when throwing down field. The running game is a bit up in the air right now. However, if the defense finally has turned it on, they could very well win the Leaders.

That was all the B1G I managed to watch. 

Did I mention that CBS is ripping off what Pat already wrote?   No seriously, Pat wrote this last Thursday.  Now if only we could get the readers they do.  

Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction

Normally I would have no problem playing EMU.  But this Saturday I want to demolish them.  I want Bell to run for 250 Yards and 5 Touchdowns. And after every one of the touchdowns.  I want him to point to Mike Hart and do this.

 

Call me a littler brother, whatever.  Fuck Mike Hart.  Outside of that, I have had a lot of fun in Ypsilanti.  Of course the game is in East Lansing, so I assume, I hope, that Hart will be booed loudly and audibly over the TV. 

OFFENSE:  Ugh, where to begin.  Right now, MSU is missing what Fou Fonoti can do as a right tackle.  With that, MSU needs to buck up on the offensive line and and push the Eagles around.   Maxwell needs to continue to make passes on his receivers and those receivers needs to CATCH THE BALL.  It is as simple as that.  MSU needs a confidence booster on offense.  Of course, the last time we had one those nothing good happened the next week.  I will state this again, MSU is missing Fou Fonoti already. However, I expect Bell to establish himself early and Maxwell to work passes from all angles.  The offense should stay in even after the game is over to get the extra reps.

DEFENSE:  In this game, MSU needs to shut it down.  Adams and Dennard will be a factor as EMU will need to pass to keep pace early in this game.  Gholston should overpower the Eagles offensive line and feed in the backfield (I might need this to happen to protect my psyche for the rest of the season.)  With Adams and Dennard laying a blanket in the secondary a defensive touchdown looms large in this game.

PREDICTION:  This game should see the Spartan offense play with a lot of fire.  Along with that, there will be perfect execution in this game.  The Spartan team needs to play with a purpose on both sides of the ball and it will.  Of course this is a short prediction because of the score I think will happen 45-6 MSU.

You Know Nothing, Jon Snow

A quick recap of the season for the Wolverines:

Week 1: Curb stomped by what appears to be an uber elite Alabama team.

Week 2: Struggled defensively against tricky triple option Air Force in a week of short preparation with a defensive coordinator who rarely faces the triple option and employed some flawed schemes. 

Week 3: UMass lol.  Just might be the worst FBS team in the country.

What have we learned through three weeks that we didn't know entering the season?  Alabama proved Michigan cannot hang with Alabama, but can anyone?  Air Force runs on everyone and Michigan was no exception.  And UMass lol.

So after three weeks the fans and media really don't know a whole lot about where Michigan stacks up this season in regards to their competition in the Big Ten.  The rest of the Big Ten looks so weak right now that Michigan might now be the favorites?

A rational argument could be made that Michigan is looking at 7-5 this season.  A rational argument could also be made that Michigan is going to run the table and finish 11-1.  Somewhere in the middle is the most likely scenario, around 9-3, but it's interesting things stand so unknown after three games.

--

The Spartans, on the other hand, seem to be a team easy to peg at this point.  While the victory over Boise St still provides questions because we simply don't know how good Boise is this season, there are a few certainties with respect to Michigan State.

1. The defense is elite.  Will Gholston is playing below expectations, but the secondary and linebackers are fantastic.  The loss to Notre Dame is likely the only way to beat MSU.  Kelly virtually shut down the offense in the 2nd half and just let his defense win him the game. Which brings us to...
2. Turns out  it is not so easy replacing Cousins, Cunningham, Martin and Nichol.  Leveon Bell is outstanding (and will keep making highlights by leaping people) but the young QB and receivers need to be able to beat teams who stack the box against Bell.  Against the Irish they failed to do so and it wasn't pretty.  The offensive line has had major issues in protection and Bell's success, IMO, has more to do with Bell making plays than the MSU offensive line creating for him. 
3. MSU still may be the class of the Big Ten this year but they aren't going to walk through their schedule and dominate.  They will be in tough games with OSU, UM, Wisconsin, Nebraska and maybe Northwestern.

Recap and Quick Hits: Week 3

Well that was far and away from a win.  Had it been played later it would have been a Sunday bloody Sunday.  Rudy is still a douche bag.

-I watched the majority of OSU with the sound off.  Braxton Miller is no doubt a stud.  He made some Cal defenders look foolish.  But man is that OSU defense underwhelming.

-Penn State put a whooping on Navy. Good for them, this was was pretty much necessary.  I am not one of those people that wants PSU to tank every game - that's how I feel about Notre Dame.  Robinson was making a lot of plays and looks like a legit threat for PSU. If they have anyone else on offense something good could start happening.

-Michigan ended the game against Umass about 10 minutes into it.  Funchess with a touchdown and then Denard with a touchdown and then again and again and again. Michigan made this game look easy, for exactly that reason.  It was easy.  Umass is new to FBS and they will have a few growing pains.

-Lastly, MSU played a real snore fest against ND. The final score was 20-3 but it felt like even less than that happened.  MSU played a good game defensively.  The touchdown in the first quarter to Goodman was a complete mismatch.* (that was not pass interference either, shit call by the refs).  Notre Dame managed only 300 total yards 122 rushing and 178 passing.  This is a highly skilled offensive team.  They are very dynamic with Wood in the back field and Golson's ability to run added a wrinkle that MSU did not seem prepared for.  The Spartan interior line has no push which created a lot of passing and running lanes for the Irish offense. Along with that, the Spartan offensive line has no push which created a lot of rushed passes and tackles for loss.  Both of these are issues need to be fixed immediately.  Along with that, the wide receivers looked terrible again.  Dropped passes plaged the receivers all game long.  I have to assume that Arnett might be getting more burn going forward.  Lippett dropped the ball and at times looked outmatched. Fowler dropped a touchdown pass on a leaping play; Larry Caper had a dropped screen pass as well.  I will say that Mumphrey looked good, he was the only player on offense making any plays.  Sims also had a quietly effective game.   If anything, this game created a lot more question marks.  A lot of MSU bloggers are mentioning how this happened last year and the team was able to win 11 games.  This is a much different team.  The talent different on offense is really showing.  Currently MSU is ranked 13th in total defense, at 250 yards per game that is also tops in the B1G.  But no matter how good your defense is, you need to score points.  After this game, I am not sure what to expect on offense.

 

(Until next year)

MSU vs. ND Prediction

You know when you wake up at 5 am after "falling asleep" on the couch.  You wake up a little confused, wondering where you are, but ultimately you manage to gather yourself and make it to bed.  You wake up finally just before college football starts but inside your head it feels like a cesspool.  That cesspool is Notre Dame.  The constant pain in  everyones head.  Always begging for your attention.  Sloshing around inside you ruining your afternoon.  But thankfully you can abort that pain with some Advil. 

OFFENSE: The front seven for Notre Dame is the strength of their team.  Michigan State's offensive line better come to play.  Along with that, Bell will need to have the best game of his career.  Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o will look to punish Bell and Maxwell.  Taking that aggressiveness and using it against them will be necessary for MSU. Look for the MSU offense to try to establish the run both between the tackles and on the edge.  This will set up play action passes where MSU will gain large chunks or yards.  After finally getting a catch last week, I see Arnett having a much larger impact in this game.  There is virtually no film on him in the MSU offense and that could help as no one is really sure how he will be used.  Look for this game to really be the Bennie Fowler coming out party.  He is a receiver that can use his big body and get down the field in a hurry.  Bennie should be tearing up the less than impressive Irish secondary.  The Irish will certainly try to make MSU one dimensional, though the air and these MSU receivers will make them pay.

DEFENSE:  Notre Dame is going with their more spread quarterback Golson.  He has a lot less experience than Reece.   MSU will look to attack early and rattle the inexperienced quarterback.  Spartan Stadium will be absolutely rocking throwing off some of the Irish timing and helping the MSU defense early in the game.  Defensively the corner backs, Dennard and Adams, will need to  be in lock down mode.  Narduzzi will be dialing up blitzes, like usual, from all over the field.  This will also help to stymie their great running back who is making his return this game, Cierre Wood.  MSU will certainly give up a couple big plays, but as long as they are not runs, I do not see how the Irish will score on long bombs through the air.  Gholston will command a lot of attention like usual and this will help free up Denicos Allen for some plays in the backfield.  For the MSU defense to be successful, they will need to keep ND one dimensional.  Just like ND will look to to against Michigan State, we will try to make Notre Dame throw the ball under duress.

PREDICTION:  I was at the game two years ago.  I have to say, MSU v. ND is my favorite game to go to.  I despise Notre Dame.  The game is usually really close and the fans in the stadium are rabid.  After some early scoring from both teams, they settle down and starting grinding against each other for two quarters.  This is perfect because this is exactly what MSU wants to do.  As the game rolls along and the crowd gets louder and louder look for MSU to string together big drives and tire out the Irish defense.  This game will remain close but MSU will prevail, call it 27-21 MSU.