Singing Tough - A Prediction

As Pat noted in the comments, I forgot to get my preview up.  Blame it on the rain.  Or staying out way later than anticipated. Today MSU is playing in a game labeled as a rivalry.  However, MSU and Wisconsin will not meet again for 4 years, unless they are in the B1G championship game.

OFFENSE:  Same story different day.  Just like every game I say, MSU needs to get the ball early and score on that first drive.  The crowd in Wisconsin is gonna be as loud as they have been all year.  Halloween weekend.  I do not see Bell having a good game in this one.  But MSU will look to get him going early and too often. MSU will need to go airborne to win this game and score points.  I like the matchups our receivers have against the Wisconsin secondary.  Wisconsin has not been too impressive defensively and Maxwell should look to get Sims going early.  Can our re-re-re-re-re-revamped line hang tough?

(the new starting offensive line)

DEFENSE:  L-I-V-I-N that's what our defense needs to do.  Just keep on keeping on.  Whatever else you can say.  There have been some writings about the defense, that there is potential for a divided locker room.  With the defense playing so well and the offense playing so poorly.  I don't see that happening, and I don't see the defense letting up.   Gholston will play his best game of the year and our defense will do a good job of limiting Montee Ball. 

PREDICTION:  The story here isn't how well our defense can play it's how many points can our offense score?  Right now, there is no reason to believe they will score any points.  Call it 20-13 Wisconsin.

MSU/um Prediction

So here we are.  The Apex of hate week, or is this the down fall?  Or is the game the Apex?  I'm not sure, regardless tomorrow, tomorrow is the day.  House vs. House.  Brother vs. Sister. Blogger vs. Blogger. After Saturday, there will be a new background here on the blog as Pat and I have an going wager that the blogger winner gets to pick the new background. I don't want to lose this. 

OFFENSE:  Well, where to begin.  First of all, we need to score. That is probably the biggest thing for MSU, but how do we get there?  Bell needs to get going and he needs to get going early.  MSU has no room for error early in the game.  This um fan base is rabid for a win over MSU, that way they can wave it in our face and say things in an East Coast accent.  The whole of the MSU offense needs to have a stellar game.  The offensive line needs to block, the receivers to need to be crisp and fast, and our running backs need to be bruising.  Up front is where this game will be decided.  The MSU line is depleted and has been performing that way.  um will look to get in and attack Maxwell, so the line needs to perform.  With that, I do expect MSU to put together some drives to start, with Burbridge coming ready and Caper providing a nice option for Maxwell in the pass game out of the backfield.

DEFENSE:  So far, the MSU defense has played well.  If our offense kicks a field goal in the games against OSU and Iowa, we likely win. The last two games against michigan, the MSU defense has been able to limit Denard.  Pat calls them the worst games Denard has ever played.  I guess he forgets about Notre Dame and Alabama this year.  However, that is the  key to beat um.  Limit the plays the Denard is making.  In the past, Norman has been very successful in beating Denard to the edge and, when needed, getting into coverage across the middle.  This year, Norman appears to have bulked up and lost a step, losing a lot of playing time to Taiwan Jones.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, but is still the key.  We need our outside linebackers to be able to bottle up the rushers and defend against those short passes that make a drive. Opportunities for Denard to throw the ball down field will be there, it would be foolish for this offense to not take its chances.  The front 7 needs to make Denard uncomfortable in the pocket, keep him guessing as to where to run, where to throw.  Like the offense, the Defense needs to be flawless. If there is an opportunity for the interception, there cannot be a drop.  When tackling, an arm tackle will not work. 

PREDICTION:  So far, I have predicted MSU to win every game this year.  Do you see a pattern?  I like our chances, in this game, but I like our chances in every game. With this defense how could you not like our chances?  However, with this offense how can you ever pick for us?  Currently michigan is a 10 point favorite.  Is that too high?  I fully expect the um offense and defense to come hyped for this game.  michigan will likely have its first lively crowd since 90's.  As I mentioned, MSU needs to get into this early. Now is the time to shake off the slow starts and silence this um crowd.  Let our friends over in ann arbor know that we own this State now.  Look for these teams to throw a few punches early before settling into a groove.  However, this MSU offense is not nearly good enough to score enough points to win.  I am gonna call this one: 24-20 um.

MSU vs. Iowa re: Abortion or not?

So here we are, the halfway point.  MSU has gone 4-2 (1-1) up to this point. I think that finishing the second half at 4-2 would equal a satisfactory season.  Especially if one of those 4s was over UM. But up next?  MSU has their old? nemesis.  One of the best games I have ever been to at Spartan Stadium was 2009 against Iowa.  That was the first college football game I took my dad to. I am not sure he knew what to expect.   It was a night game and a sold out crowd of 75,000.  We entered Spartan Stadium a bit early to see the band and the team enter.  About 2 minutes in he yelled that there was so much energy, I responded with "WHAT?!?".  That was a fun/loud game.

OFFENSE:  Burbridge had a coming out party last week to the tune of 134 yards.  Burbridge very well could be the saviour of this passing offense, this week could establish that.  However, the Iowa defense has been coming along lately and they seem to have a team that was built to stop our offense.  Up front, they can take the blows of a big back like Bell.  So what should we look for?  Well I think the MSU team is going to look to establish the run as they always do.  Off of that they will run some juke plays off of a run formation.  This offense has been so predictable it is necessary to run some flea flickers, half back option passes, double fakes.  Anything to create a little wrinkle, but not too much because we want this next week: 

 

DEFENSE:  They need to continue what they have been doing. Williamson showed a lot of speed as a safety and could be the guy from here on out.  Anything that helps the corners over top.  On too many pass plays this year, a safety has blown a read and left the corners way too isolated.  That wont happen this week.  Another change has been Taiwan Jones over Chris Norman.  Norman, right now is more of a bruising presence.  In past years he has shown more speed, as I wrote about in our position breakdowns.  Now Jones is stepping up and showing that speed.  This position will depend on the team.  I expect Norman to get more PT against the big RB that Iowa has.   Right now Gholston needs to flip a switch and I fully expect that.  Look for two sacks from Gholston and a hand-full of plays in the backfield. 

On the whole, this is a game MSU has to win or it could be a season we need to abort.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.  Sometimes you make mistakes and you need to correct those.  I hope that all the flaws MSU has shown they are learning from.  They certainly showed some fire in the second half against Indiana.  There cannot be any player expecting to roll from here on out.  Personally, I feel fairly optimistic about this game and that is mostly due to Brubridge.  I am a huge wide reciever fan and believe they dictate a game more than any other skill position.  He could be our guy.  If he is, we win.  Look for a Burbridge touchdown in the rain along with a lot of power from Bell.  Call it 24-14 MSU.  

(you're welcome Pat for the title)

MSU vs. Indiana

I am still working on my promised follow up to my post last week.  What does John Lennon say?  Life is what happens while youre busy making other plans.  Has there been a more anticipated week a more hotly debated week in MSU football since Dantonio took over?  Maybe the first year we played UM after the little brother game.  Maybe Last years B1G championship game.  Also, I hate these watch ESPN app commercials

OFFENSE:  This is why the weeks is anticipated.  MSU showed signs of life offensively against OSU even while scoring only 16 points.  Maxwell stayed poised in the pocket  delivered the ball on the money and for the most part his receivers  made plays.   With that, there is a new wrinkle  to the offense.  Aaron Burbridge was named a starter in place of the struggling Bennie Fowler.  KJ from the only colors thinks that this has a weird vibe.  I could not disagree more.  Aaron has come in as a highly recruiter wide receiver, Fowler has not been struggling to get it done.   Along with that, Dan Roushar has described Burbridge as being able to catch everything that is thrown his way.  That is exactly what we need.

DEFENSE:  Defensively, this MSU team has performed very well.  Like a keep saying, the defense is not going to win us games, we still need to score points. For this game at Indiana, MSU needs to come out ready to hit someone.  Gholston, this week, has given his play so far this year a "C". What is he going to do to change that?  Adams got beat on a perfectly thrown ball last week, will a play like that happen with a lesser quarterback?  For Gholston, look for him to be attacking,  I think he is hearing it from his coaches and is getting worked in practice, there should be a lot of effort out of him.  Look for Adams to have another strong game and even come up with an interception. 

Overall this is a game that MSU should end up winning comfortably.  To start, Indiana will move the ball well and tack on some field goals.  Opposing that will be the MSU offense and Burbridge.  I expect MSU to throw to him early and I think Indiana is keenly aware of that.  Look for Burbridge to be used a decoy for Bell to pop out on a little wheel route.  But what about Bell?  He had disappeared against OSU.  Bell will get going early as they use the run to set up the pass.  Bell should break the century mark and tack on some touchdowns in the second half.  Well call this game 28-13 MSU

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction

So here we are, another sneaking up on me.  The best game in the NCAA is at East Lansing as Ohio State pays the Spartans a visit.  Along with that, College Game Day is there out front of Beaumont Tower.

OFFENSE:  So what can I say that I have not already?  Michigan State knows what it needs to do and that is establish Bell as an offensive threat.  Ohio State should come in expecting that and they will want to make MSU a one dimensional team.  Because of this, Maxwell will need to continue to be on point.  However, the bigger concern will be what the wide receivers can do with that ball.  Will they drop it?  WIll they fumble it?  Will they be able to lay a block for the running game?  Look for MSU to try to establish the passing game to let OSU know they can indeed pass it.  I expect Sims to have a big game and for one of the wide receivers to step up - just one. This Ohio State defense is the last ranked defense in the B1G right now so MSU needs to get it going, get confidence going early and put points on the board.

DEFENSE:  The Spartan defense needs to remain stout.  Braxton Miller is a dynamic quarterback with an incredible ability to run the ball.  Along with that, his wide receivers have been good, making plays down field, catching ball and creating a space for Braxton to run.  To throw him off his game, look for the defense to hide blitzes in an attempt to get their hands on Braxton early and often.  From there, containment will be key.  Dennard and Adams have had some poor showings lately in the defensive backfield, they will need to bring their A game today. So will the outside linebackers.  With Braxton's size and speed, Allen and Norman will be active on the side lines.  If MSU can limit the big plays out of Braxton that should go a long way towards defeating the Buckeyes.

The offense really needs to score points.  If the defense is on the field all day it will be a long game for the Spartans.  Very simply, the offense needs to score.  I cant break it down any more than that. With the way things have gone this year for the Spartans I expect a lot of fire out the Spartans especially those from the state of Ohio. Call this one 24-21 MSU

Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction

Normally I would have no problem playing EMU.  But this Saturday I want to demolish them.  I want Bell to run for 250 Yards and 5 Touchdowns. And after every one of the touchdowns.  I want him to point to Mike Hart and do this.

 

Call me a littler brother, whatever.  Fuck Mike Hart.  Outside of that, I have had a lot of fun in Ypsilanti.  Of course the game is in East Lansing, so I assume, I hope, that Hart will be booed loudly and audibly over the TV. 

OFFENSE:  Ugh, where to begin.  Right now, MSU is missing what Fou Fonoti can do as a right tackle.  With that, MSU needs to buck up on the offensive line and and push the Eagles around.   Maxwell needs to continue to make passes on his receivers and those receivers needs to CATCH THE BALL.  It is as simple as that.  MSU needs a confidence booster on offense.  Of course, the last time we had one those nothing good happened the next week.  I will state this again, MSU is missing Fou Fonoti already. However, I expect Bell to establish himself early and Maxwell to work passes from all angles.  The offense should stay in even after the game is over to get the extra reps.

DEFENSE:  In this game, MSU needs to shut it down.  Adams and Dennard will be a factor as EMU will need to pass to keep pace early in this game.  Gholston should overpower the Eagles offensive line and feed in the backfield (I might need this to happen to protect my psyche for the rest of the season.)  With Adams and Dennard laying a blanket in the secondary a defensive touchdown looms large in this game.

PREDICTION:  This game should see the Spartan offense play with a lot of fire.  Along with that, there will be perfect execution in this game.  The Spartan team needs to play with a purpose on both sides of the ball and it will.  Of course this is a short prediction because of the score I think will happen 45-6 MSU.

Define "Smiling"

Does anyone know what that saying means?  "Irish Eyes are Smiling"? They must have been smiling in that way people only smile when feeling a knowing, psychotic rage after witnessing miraculous Michigan come from behind victories in the final seconds of the last three matchups in this rivalry.

If you've read anything on the internet about the Michigan - Notre Dame matchup this weekend you have heard one fact reiterated again and again: Denard Robinson owns the Irish.  This, of course, is true.  From his Heisman like pose in the game in 2010 to his 4th quarter heroics last year, Shoelace has been downright cruel to Rudy lovers everywhere.  Can he do it again?  Please, Mr Robinson, Irish tears warm the cockles of my heart.

Mercifully, after waiting through spring, summer, fall and three football games finally we get some concrete information on the Wolverines and maybe how they matchup with the Spartans.  I'm sure MSU fans will have a keen eye on this game to help gauge where their team is at as well.  Overmatched Eastern Michigan probably won't provide much opportunity to learn more about your beloved Spartans.

I fully expect Notre Dame to come out gunning for Denard in an attempt to shut down his running opportunities.  Denard will need to beat the Irish through the air for Michigan to win this game.  Despite Michigan's defense having some question marks, the Irish offense doesn't seem to be a juggernaut.  The matchups in this game appear to be strength on strength (UM O vs Irish D) and ? on ? (UM D vs Irish O).

I'm torn on making a pick in this game.  If the game was in Ann Arbor I'd be confident in picking Michigan, but winning in South Bend is a tall order...

Yet how can a Michigan fan (or any football fan) pick against dreadlocks dancing in the dark beneath the lights of famous old Notre Dame stadium under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus and torturing Irish souls one last glorious time?

Michigan 28-27

The Battle of Mid-Michigan

So here we are. Another Saturday.  There has been some lame posting on here recently, you can blame me, but it is mostly Pat's fault.  But here we go.  Energized ready for the Chippewa's. 

OFFENSE:  After a both up and down offensive performance last week, look for this MSU team to come out gunning.  Everyone has read about what Bell was able to do against Boise, look for more of the same against CMU.  The biggest difference is that I cannot imagine Bell receiving more than 20 carries.  There should be a lot of action for Caper and Hill in this game, (maybe then Hill will be allowed to tweet about Michigan?) Gaining large chunks of yards is something that MSU will look to do in the air.  Anything to erase the ugliness of last weeks receiver performance.  Burbridge and Arnett have been getting a lot of reps in practice and I expect to see a good bit of Arnett on the field.  Tony Lippett will get a chance to redeem himself, but other players will get the chance to show their skills.  In this game, Maxwell will need to show why so many MSU fans are excited about him.  His strong arm, his ability to be mobile his command of the offense after three years.  Along with that, the offensive line will need to be exactly what they are.  Bigger and better than CMU.   No turnovers for the offense this game.

DEFENSE:  On the defensive side of the ball, this game will be won up front.  I expect the MSU front four to get a ton of push and live in the Chippewa back field.  CMU will counter this by trying to draw players offside and pick up cheap yards.  Dennard and Adams will lay a blanket over the CMU receivers.  Which will  be necessary since CMU will need to pass a lot in this game.   MSU will show off how deep its defense can play even though it is against a middle to poor MAC team.  The psuh from the front four and the tight coverage on receivers should allow the linebackers to make plays in the pass game.  Lot os pass deflections and maybe even some interceptions. 

PREDICTION:  This was a short review mostly because this is not the same CMU team of three years ago, or even the same MSU team.  I expect this game to be mostly over by halftime.  If CMU is hanging around when the band is playing, I will be shocked.  How can they do that though?  They need to make the MSU offense one dimensional.  CMU will need to limit the running game and see if Maxwell has made any strides in his passing game.   If that is the game plan for CMU, expect to see a lot of play action from MSU and some  plays for large chunks of yards.  We will call this 38-10 MSU

 

(I went to CMU for a year and lived in Chip Village)

MSU v. BSU Prediction

Friday night ligths.  Or the start of college football season.  Here I am, at my friends house in Lansing, MI.  It's 11:33 am and I have David Guetta jammin, my lady friend is happy.  I need some whiskey.  I have been the Meijer and the cooler is packed.  It is about time for a drink, but first I need to make a prediction.

OFFENSE:  This is fairly obviously the biggest question mark for MSU.  With a new QB and mostly new WRs the MSU offense will need to limit turnover and control the clock.  The key here will be making most of your possessions.  Field goals are cool with me, and I LOVE touchdowns.  What will kill us are turnovers.  I am looking at you Maxwell.  Today in the Lansing area it is very windy. This is supposed to continue through the day, so I expect MSU to pound the ball on the ground  Though I expected that anyways.  Today is one of those game where Bell will get his number called a lot and then to change the pace we will see Caper and Hill.  With Caper and Hill in expect to see screen passes and tosses outside.  Once that is established for these runners, expect that out of Bell as well.  This will open up shots down the middle.  That is where I expect Maxwell to start out passing.  Sims figures to have a big game.  There will be limited shots down field with this wind.  For BSU, I expect to "trick" plays as they will be called by the announcers but it will be mostly misdirection.  BSU is also starting a new QB who has been effective in his time as a backup.  We might see some halfback options and into a pass.  I am not sure.  What I do know is that BSU has about 5,000 offensive plays so the defense needs to be ready for all of them. 

DEFENSE:  The strength of this MSU squad and the basically the only reason, as far as I can tell, why we are getting any hype is the defense.  It will be necessary for the Spartan defense to limit its pursuit.  With the misdirection that I am expecting, becoming an over zealous tackler will lead to massive gains and massive scores for BSU.  The defense will need to stay home and then attack quickly. In my head it will be similar to how they have played Michigan.  Over pursuing Denard is a death sentence, same with the BSU offense. I expect a lot of disruption from Gholston and Allen.  This should keep the BSU offense out of sync.  Our defensive line needs to have a good game push that BSU offensive line back on each snap.  Anything to overpower and deflate BSU will be crucial.

PREDICTION:  The crowd is going to be electric.  It is a beautiful day out today with temps in the high 80s/low 90s and a strong breeze making it feel cooler.  The night game allows plenty of time for people to get pre lubed.  I am seeing a lot of older(my aged) Spartan fans in and around town.  This is good thing since I am mostly critical of our student section and its ability to be lackluster.  Expect a few shots early from both teams until they settle into a groove.  The MSU defense will come on strong as the game ends and I see this swinging MSU's way.  Though it should be noted that last home openers BSU has won (Oregon, Georgia*, VaTech).  I think this defense is going to flex a lot of muscle.  31-21 MSU

Michigan DTs

Ed Note: This is Pat projecting it, I am just posting it. Hopefully this will mean ill get my butt in gear to have MSU DT up tonight or tomorrow.


DT

Let's get the previews started!  Last season saw Michigan and MSU both enjoy great seasons defensively.  Michigan's defense had a miraculous turnaround from being one of the worst in the country to a top 20 squad.  MSU had a dominant defense that led to their appearance in the conference title game and bowl victory over the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs.  Both defenses were led up front by their defensive line and especially their defensive tackles. 

The 2011 Michigan team (team 132) had an interesting lineup at DT.  It looked something like this:

NT (the 1-tech): Sr Mike Martin with backup Will Campbell
DT (the 3-tech):  Walk-on Sr Will Henninger with Sr Ryan Van Bergen rotating into this spot. 

Depth was provided by Sophomore Quinton Washington who saw occasional snaps.  The Wolverines just saw Mike Martin drafted in the third round (the highest Wolverine drafted) and will need to replace both his production and leadership. 

The depth chart above shows just why defensive tackle is a huge question mark for Michigan entering the season.  Luckily, Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison are both defensive line coaches and there are some talented big men ready to step in and produce up front.

The contenders for playing time:

NT (the 1-tech): Will Campbell (Sr) Richard Ash (So) Ondre Pipkins (Fr)
DT (the 3-tech): Jibreel Black (Jr) Quinton Washington (Jr) Nathan Brink (Walk-on Jr)

The big question that needs to be answered is can Will Campbell finally live up to his massive hype?  Can he at least be a productive Big Ten player?  He has shown flashes in the past and has the size and athleticism to be a standout but his technique and effort are concerns.  Like many tall DT's, Campbell has shown a great tendency to stand up at the snap of the ball.  If he can keep his pad level down he could turn himself into an NFL player.  How often does a guy enter his senior year and you aren't sure if he's going to end up being drafted or if he's going to lose his starting spot and never pan out?  A rare case indeed. 

Michigan does have bodies at these positions.  Richard Ash has gotten some positive reviews out of spring practice and likely will contribute and get regular snaps.  JIbreel Black moving inside from the 5-tech to the 3-tech makes Michigan a little smaller up front but gives them great speed, athleticism and versatility.  Washington and Ash could both end up playing the nose or the 3-tech. 

Pat's prediction:

At the nose, Campbell starts the year and while he has some growing pains he is a solid Big Ten starter.  He won't put up big numbers but will eat up space and blockers allowing other defenders to be more effective.  Ondre Pipkins proves to simply be too good to keep on the bench and gets 10-15 snaps per game by the end of the year.  The other DT position sees a rotation of guys coming in and out and has some issues in run defense but is productive in rushing the passer.

Overall I think this unit will cause some frustration if they cannot hold the line of scrimmage against big offensive lines that run downhill but I think they'll be quite effective against spread teams.   This is the greatest concern for Michigan's defense heading into 2012 and while it is unlikely to be a great strength, the potential for production is there.

Rivalry Sunday

Ok, so it's Super Bowl Sunday but I'm a bit more excited for the Michigan-MSU basketball matchup than the big football game. I think the Patriots win the big game because despite all the hype I do not think Eli is on the same level as Brady. The Giants have a good team around their qb but there is an important revenge factor here which will motivate the Pats to get it done.

More important to this blog is the outcome of the basketball matchup tomorrow. Both squads are within a game of OSU for the league lead in standings and the winner of this game will stay right in the mix for a conference title.

Draymond Green has been adding some drama to this matchup. First he guaranteed victory immediately after Michigans's win two weeks ago. Now he is back at it saying only death can keep him out while declaring his hatred for Michigan and saying he has the Wolverines figured out. That's a lot of talk for a guy who is .500 in his career vs the Wolverines and who has lost the last three.

Still, Green's Spartans have a very good chance to back up their leader in this game. They simply do not lose at home and Michigan is going to see the Spartans give their best effort of the season. However, I would not pencil in a Spartan victory just yet. We've seen in the last few matchups that Michigan too puts great emphasis on this game and that Michigan presents some matchup difficulties for the Spartans.

This should be a game filled with great emotion and effort and probably some good basketball as well.

Two things to keep your eye on:

1. MSU's edge on the offensive glass. The Spartans will get second chance points but are they dominating the game on the offensive boards? This is a huge key in the game.

2. Are the threes dropping for the Wolverines? It's a common theme for Michigan but when they shoot well (especially Tim Hardaway Jr) they are a very good team. They will need to be just that to win in the Breslin this year.

I think the crowd and MSU's size and will (after losing 3 straight) are too much for the Wolverines in this game. Spartans by 6.

Tbone  here.  I would say all this is pretty much spot on.   I will add that the crowd at the Breslin is going to be fired up and I fully expect MSU to come out hot. It remains to be seen how effective Draymond is with his hurt knee.  However, Dawson, if he continues his current streak of playing should give UM fits and could take over the game.  I look for Appling to rebound from his last game against UM and the loss at Illinois. He has been a great contributor all season, and makes this Spartan team nearly un beatable when he is playing at his best.  When he plays at  his worst?  The team looks lost.  

I see the game prediction similar to Pat's.  I will take a 10 point MSU victory though just to make it a little different and regain control of the background for a time.  GO GREEN!

Bowl

Quick and dirty style.  I have to work all day today so I will be missing the game, well, I will be watching it on DVR. 

1.  Edge speed.   This is where MSU can overwhelm just about every team in the county utilizing both Martin and Cunningham on the edge and deep on the sidelines with their speed. 

2: Defensive line.  The defensive line will need to get good push if MSU has any chance in this game. Think your a first round pick, Worthy?  Here is the chance to show it.  The Georgia offensive line will be the largest line weve played all year. 

3:  Controlling the ball.  I dont think we will win a shootout.  MSU needs to control the ball eat the clock and bleed Georgia dry.  I think we can win this game, but our running game will help assure that.  If we rack up 150 yards on the ground, we should win handily.  I am not sure who I see having a bigger game, Bell or Baker, more of a combo attack.  Caper could get in the mix as well with some screen passes and break a few loose. 

This is a tough game to call because I have only watch Georgia play one game and that was the SEC championship.  I dont think their second half was as good as they are.  I think they are more like that first half team.  MSU needs to get a jump early and see if things unravel quickly for the Bulldogs.  Cousins has been on a tear his last 6 games, keep that up and we win.  Turn the ball over early in possessions and give Georgia good field position we lose.  I am not happy about having to work since this matchup seems to be of two equal team.  Lets all it 31-24 MSU.  Close game throughout, one touchdown in the last few minutes gets us the lead and then our defense gets a huge stop to seal the game.

Turkey and Dreams

MMMMM turkey.  Sweet sweet turkey.  Hard to run a blog when your traveling to Boston.  Taking brewery tours, eating Indian food, and being about the laziest human possible.  Yet here I am.  Because I love all of the readers, Pat and I have cultivated. MSU has now played three lower level teams in  basketball and has gone 3-0 in those games.  Not much to say regarding that, these are teams we should beat 100% of the time, and did.  The next major opponent is Gonzaga at Gonzaga. MSU football is taking on Northwestern on Saturday, and I am sure Pat will have plenty regarding his team, apparently, they're playing The Ohio State University. 

But let us move on to the famous three things.

1. Avoiding the upset:

Can MSU avoid the upset?  After clinching a birth to the B1G championship game, this game is not as important as it could have been.  The players will need to remain strong mentally to avoid a let down.  What this game does present is the opportunity to win the Legends division outright.  Should MSU lose and UM win, UM will secure a share of the division, we cant have that. 

2.  Contain the offense:

That is, play good defense.  MSU will need to contain Northwestern, from the start of the game, MSU will need to keep Northwestern's offense off the field.  With Northwestern there are two very mobile quarterbacks in Persa and Colter.  Persa is very accomplished and looks mostly rehabbed from his achilles injury last year.  When throwing Persa will pass to Jeremy Ebert on most attempts.  Occasionally Persa will run the option, where he remains effective.  This is where Colter can be a huge threat.  Colter also plays wide receiver for the wildcats but from time to time, Colter will line up at quarterback.  When this happens, look for Colter to run the ball.  His passes come out a little duck like, but his speed running the ball is without question a real threat. This will be a good prep game headed into B1G championship.  Lots of blitzing from the linebackers and bull rushing with our ends will keep their quarterbacks on edge.  Right now our secondary is playing at a level that they will be able to keep the Northwestern wide receivers in check with little underneath help. 

3.  Keep the scoring going:

I fully expect MSU to score and score often against Northwestern.  After putting up 55 against the lowly Hoosiers, the MSU offense is firing on all cylinders.  A lot of that can be attributed to the offensive line.  I mentioned the offensive line in nearly every three things to start the year, but now they have gelled.  Fou Fonoti and Dan France both look strong right now and have improved dramatically as the season has gone on.  Travis Jackson looks as good as advertised and will be a four yeart starter for MSU at center, that is impressive.  As such, Kirk Cousins has had an impressive year, even against Nebraska, the offensive line played well.  Look for this to continue as the offense controls the ball on the ground.  Just like against Indiana, MSU should run the ball effectively while gashing Northwestern for big scoring plays. 

Prediction:  MSU wins this game.  Dantonio has already stated he is playing and preparing the players like nothing is different.  Dantonio has also stated he does not want to share the division with Wolverines.  Look for this one to be around 38-17.  About a three score victory is what I am expecting. 

BUSY!

Whirlwind week that included being stuck in Atlanta for a night, jetlag, football banquets, interviews and subbing for a bunch of prick 7th graders


So I'm entering into the Tbone category of blogging effort.

3 Things:

1. Drob vs Tmart

The QB who plays the better game likely wins it. 

2. Mike Martin vs Errybody

After Tbone declared the Mike Martin hype dead after the UM-MSU game, he's gone out and dominated in three straight games. 

3. Pat vs Happiness

Optimism, true optimism is creeping in.  I called this game a free roll, that's still true.  Win or lose tomorrow this season will be defined as a success or a failure by next week's game.  However, this is still an important game as far as national perception is concerned.

Prediction:

Michigan's defense looked nearly dominant last week.  I'm a bit cynical, believing the performance was more about Illinois being terrible rather than Michigan being dominant.  We'll find out more tomorrow but my expectation is that both Burkhead and Martinez have good days on the ground attacking the edges of Michigan's D as the young DE's make mistakes in the option game.  I also think Nebraska's defense isn't anywhere near great.  Playing in the Big House, I think Michigan will move the ball throughout the game.  If they capitalize in the red zone and get off to a good start I think they'll win this game.  This was a game I pegged as a likely loss before the season so it's nice being a little more confident now.

31-28 Michigan

To Clinch Or Not To Clinch

Yup, that is the question.  That was about as lame as a Caddylack tweet.  So where are we? Well MSU has about a 30 point lead over Texas Southern.  The color commentator played for Indiana in 1976 that wen 32-0 and 63-1 in 1975 and 1976, that is ridiculous.  That squad was the last undefeated team.  On to the game though, Trice looks good.  As does Dawson and Nix, and Appling.  We look good, but were playing Texas Southern.  I did not preview this game because I figured we would crush them.  I likely wont preview a lot of the non B1G games, save for Gonzaga.  (Jud is a season ticket holder for the Zags)

This Saturday at 11 am central, the Michigan State Spartans take on the Indiana Hoosiers in our protected cross over rivalry game.  The battle for the Old Brass Spitoon. Currently, MSU leads the Series 40-12-1.  Not  bad. 

1: Controlling the clock.

MSU will looks to run a lot in this game.  Controlling the clock and working the Indiana defense.   Indiana's defense is not very stout and is prone to giving up big plays.  MSU should score on big plays, 25+ yards while simultaneously running the ball early and often.  Cunningham should have a big game, with long receptions for touchdowns. 

2:  Stop the Tre.

MSU will need to bottle up the Indiana quarterback Tre Robinson.  He is a more slender dual threat QB at 6-1 184.  However, he can dual threat.  MSU has shown great ability to bottle up these types of quarterbacks and there no reason to believe that wont continue.  With limited weapons, for the Hoosiers, look for MSU to leave receivers in solo coverage and attack Robinson all game.

3: Senior game!

Well, this is it.  MSU's seniors are graduating.  This Spartan senior class is the winningest class in school history.  Look for these guys to start the game, play well and get off the field so their backups can play.  As Spartan fans we should wildly supportive of this class, and if the student section is not sold out, you will see an op-ed column in the State News.

Call it 42-14 MSU for the reasons mentioned above.

(makes me want a dip)

Quick and dirty

Just how I like my three things.

1:  Cousins.

Kirk needs to have a good game.  This Iowa defense isnt as good as years past but still is very capable of causing turnovers.  Kirk needs to not play like he did last year.

2: Stopping the run.

MSU  needs to stop the Iowa running backs from doing that.  Running.  This will force Iowa to pass more.  That might not be a good thing because McNutt is a sick sick receiver. 

3: Score points.

Our offense has been a bit off track.  It certainly didn't look spectacular against Minnesota.  We need to score points, a close game here and we could very well lose.  To score points, I see MSU taking advantage of their tight ends more than in any other game with a lot of passes up the middle.  Sims has a broken wrist and is playing with a cast on.  I sure hope he doenst play a lot becuase it cannot be easy to catch a ball like that.  Linthicum is more than capable of catching the  ball.  Along with that.  MSU has been saying all week that they are gonna pound the ball.  Look for that too, but mostly to set up play action passes.  If we can break a couple runs early, were gonna score on a 40 yard bomb later.

Prediction:

Everyone that I read, so mostly MSU bloggers are calling for a close game.  That seems very logical.  But that is something that I lack.  We will go 27-17.  That sounds close but I think MSU is going to control this game.  Look for Jerel Worthy to be in beast mode.  Also, as mentioned above, I like the play action set up in this game.

Thrillinois

His name is Mercilus. Hopefully someone can block him.

Michigan plays Illinois in a battle of struggling squads.  Michigan is 1-2 in their last three and the Illini have dropped their previous three games.  The Big Ten says "wahoo to that, let's make it the 3:30 game!"

Three Things to Watch for on Saturday

1) Illinois offense, do they have any?

The Fighting Illini have been really struggling to move the ball this season.  To me, this is terrifying since they scored over 60 points against the Wolverines last season in the Big House.  Michigan's defense is clearly improved, but Illinois has had a bye week to work out some of their kinks and will probably also have some new wrinkles installed for Michigan.  After losing three straight, coming off a bye, and playing at home, Illinois is likely to give one of their best efforts of the season.


2) Can Denard break a few big runs?

Robinson, for whatever reason, hasn't run much in the previous few games.  I'm not sure if he's nicked up and suffering from some sort of injury that we don't know about or if it has been a coaching decision to have him run far less than he was in September.  I do see him not looking as explosive and decisive in the running game as he's looked in the past, but he's still the most dangerous weapon Michigan has on the ground and his yards per carry bear that out.


3) Turnover Battle

This could be somewhat of a defensive battle and in those games turnovers and special teams make the difference.  The offenses need to be aided by a short field or a defensive or special teams score. Since turnovers come with a giant variance, who knows who has the edge here.  Hopefully it goes to Michigan.

Prediction

Home field advantage is important.  Illinois is playing in their backs against the wall type situation.  They are also coached by Ron Zook.  Those first two things scare me, the third brings some comfort.

20 - 17 Illinois

I-Owe-A Lot

I am finding it rather difficult to restrain optimism for Michigan in this game.  

Iowa is 5-3 and goes to bowl game every year!  (but they just lost to Minnesota)
Denard gives away interceptions like Halloween candy! (but Iowa just lost to Minnesota)
Michigan has struggled in their only two road games this year! (but Iowa just lost to Minnesota)
Iowa has won the last two meetings! (but they just lost to Minnesota) 
Iowa is so difficult to beat in Kinnick! (but they just lost to Minnesota) 


Did I mention they just lost to Minnesota?  

OK, so it was a rivalry game and maybe that game just goes to show you how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big Ten.  Iowa also might come out totally fired up and play their best game of the season...or maybe they just aren't very good. 


On to the show


3 Things and a Prediction

1) Running Wild (When Michigan is on Offense)

Iowa's defensive front isn't up to the standards of the normally stout unit that it has been the past several years.  This should be a huge advantage for Michigan's run game.  Iowa doesn't often vary out of their two deep look which should allow Denard and Toussaint to exploit the defense on the ground.  Look for Michigan to eclipse 200 yards rushing.   

2)  Running Wild (When Iowa is on Offense) 

If Coker rushes for 250 yards again, Iowa will win this game.  Michigan needs to limit Coker and put Vandenberg in 3rd and long situations.  Iowa always has a good offensive line.  This is a very good test for Michigan's defense.  Iowa is going to try to gain 3 yards on 1st and 2nd down and get into third and manageable.  If Michigan is stout against the run on 1st and 2nd down I'll be smiling.  

3) Road Denard

Robinson needs to be efficient and smart with the football.  He's not going to have a 100% completion percentage but if he manages the game Michigan will make plays on offense.  If Denard throws 2 or more picks Iowa will have a great chance to win the game.  

Prediction:

Iowa comes out with a lot of emotion and rides the home crowd to an early lead but Michigan's offense moves the ball relentlessly on the struggling Hawkeye defense.  Vandenberg makes enough plays to McNutt to keep it close into the 4th quarter. 

34-24 Michigan.  

The Era of Denard Robinson

Hail.

The Story: Denard Robinson has done countless amazing things as Michigan's quarterback.  He dropped the snap on his first ever college play as a true freshman, only to scoop it up and dazzle his way to a touchdown.  He has set numerous records for single game yardage performances, led Michigan to two improbable and spectacular victories against Notre Dame, and he's even made a name for himself as the most electrifying player in college football. 

He's good.  You know.

But just how good is he?

It's an interesting time for some legacy talk with Denard.  For all his greatness, he's been a part of the program during truly difficult times.  He's 0-2 versus the Spartans as a starter (0-5 overall against OSU and MSU) and despite two seemingly signature wins against Notre Dame, lacks the consistency of resume to be placed among the truly elite in Michigan lore.  I often see Michigan fans placing Denard in the same breath as players such as Woodson, Howard, Carter and Harmon.  To this point, despite all his crazy statistics and accolades, he has not earned that elite company.

A Caveat: Football certainly is a team game, and much of Denard's failures have come as a result of a lack of talent around him, (how much worse would things have been without him the last year and a half?) yet the truly great players transcend those hurdles and elevate those around them to new heights.

Crossroads: Robinson played his worst game as Michigan's starter just two weeks ago in East Lansing.  There were some mitigating factors (like a very good Spartan defense and a trash tornado) but Denard's play actually led some Michigan fans to call for Devin Gardner to play quarterback and Denard to be moved elsewhere.  Those people are lunatics, but Denard's career could go a couple ways from here.  He could remain what he is, an electrifying runner who trounces over-matched opponents and is able to inconsistently move the ball with his arm but falls short against good defenses and on the biggest stages, or he could take the next step and move onto the list with all the other Michigan greats.

With Purdue visiting Ann Arbor this weekend, Michigan sits at 6-1 with four games remaining.  Denard is essentially through half his career as Michigan's starter.  Michigan should beat Purdue, but this next 4 game stretch will define Denard Robinson for the rest of his career.  The ever-lying eyeball test reveals Michigan is a better team this season.  Just how much better will be spelled out for us over the next four weeks.   If the team (and Denard) struggle and Michigan loses three (especially if one of those is to OSU) of the remaining 5 games, the Devin Gardner heat will intensify this summer and the Denard Robinson era will likely end one of hope and potential but ultimately disappointment.  It's time to see improvement in Denard Robinson, improvement that comes against Big Ten opponents and leads to meaningful victories.  It needs to start this week against Purdue. 

I apologize to you, Charles, for what I am about to say...

The previous paragraph I wrote Denard Robinson's era at Michigan may be remembered with disappointment, but at a true crossroads there is another path.   If Denard is able to steer down this vastly different path, he has the potential and opportunity to go down as THE greatest Wolverine of all-time.  That's lofty, too lofty your brain just said, but just imagine if Michigan wins 4 out it's last 5 games with a victory over OSU and Denard has some monster games (this is in my realm of possibility, am I crazy?)  A bowl game win for an 11-2 record and an entire off-season to continue to refine his skills as a passer and Denard will be an early season favorite for the Heisman trophy in 2012.  Michigan will have a bunch of marquee games for a senior Denard to lead them in and if he is able to lead Michigan to a magical season (a giant IF, but one that becomes more probable when you assume improvement in his own game) it would be even more special because of the circumstances of the last few seasons.  Combined with his assault on all of Michigan's (and the NCAA's) record books and it's possible that in just over 14 months Denard Robinson could be the greatest.

He may never reach the realm of the truly elite, but then again...



3 Things to Watch Versus Purdue:

1) Can Michigan throw the football?  

If Denard comes out and tosses the ball all around, Michigan is going to run away with the game.  If Denard is throwing bounce passes and interceptions, buckle-up.  The hard part about this is Denard can look atrocious one possession and magnificent the next, so I guess buckle-up either way.

2) Bye-Bye Bye Week

Michigan came out as flat as I have ever seen a team play football last season after their bye week.  I expect a much better effort in the Big House on Saturday.  If they have no emotion, Purdue has enough talent to make them pay.


3) Can Purdue make big plays? 

Michigan's defense has given up yards this season but has come up with turnovers at opportune times and held fairly strong in the red zone.  They are not a lights-out shut you down defense. (they were 108th in the country last year after all)   However, Michigan has rarely ceded big plays this season.  In fact, I don't believe the defense has given up a single play of more than 40 yards.  Purdue may need a couple big gainers and big touchdowns if they want to win the game. 

Prediction: 

If this game was on the road, I'd be awfully nervous.  As is, I'm paranoid because I'm worried about what a loss would do to the team's psyche after a difficult couple of years.  I don't think Purdue is a very good ball club. (they lost to Rice...even more damning, they played AT Rice)  They are a team that will claw tooth and nail to try to reach a bowl game and probably come up one game short.

Michigan 33 - 20

MSU vs. Wisconsin

WHOA.  This game snuck up on me.  Nothing posted since the Michigan game.  Also, for those UM fans out there, Pat is at a wedding and will unable to post anything.  It helps that Michigan has a bye week... So, let us jump right into to East Lansing. 

I will start by saying that the reason that they have nets up on College Gameday is that in about 1997 I want to say, fans pelted Herbstreit with  beer cans.   GO STATE!

What are three things to watch out for?

1:  The play of Russel Wilson.

For MSU to win this game, they need to stop Wilson from making plays.  Russel is is both an upgrade and a down grade from Denard Robinson, he is a less dynamic runner but a better passer.  We need to get to Wilson early and get some hits on him.  Any way to rattle the quarterback and disrupt some timing on his passes will go a long way to winning this game.  On that note, Wilson is still very capable of running and going out on passes to catch the pass.  Which brings me to my next point

2: Defensive line play.

This Wisconsin offensive line is just about a complete 180 from the Michigan offensive line.  These are big boys.  Wisconsin is best known for their massive offensive linemen and their ability to pound the football.  Without William Gholston, the MSU offensive line is going to need to step up their play.  We need to find ways get through their line and stop that initial push.  If Wisconsin is constantly getting a good 2 or 3 yards of push in the trenches it is going to be a long day for the Spartans.  I am looking for the defensive line to blitz more linebackers both on the edge and up the middle and keep the defensive backs in coverage to limit Wilsons ability to pass the ball on blitzes.

3: Can we score some points?

This is a HUGE game for our offense.  The offense has been very much a lame duck. At times they have looked good, and other times have looked downright awful.  Wisconsin has been scoring at a clip of about 40 ppg.  Does the MSU offense need to match that?  No.  But we are going to need to get some points with touchdowns - not field goals.  Like the UM game, I expect Kirk Cousins to attack the edges in the passing game and after Keshawn Martins game last week, I see more plays aimed at him...DO NOT FUMBLE THE BALL!!!!!!!!!!   With that, it is pretty obvious that we need to be able to run the football and when MSU is unable to run the football, MSU gets stomped.  Edwin Baker looked like a man possessed last week.  Will he still have that speed, and will our offensive line still have that push?  I sure hope so.  If you cant get up for a game like this, you might as well stay home.  If Kirk can get the ball on the edges and open up some dump passes in the middle to the TE.  We will be very effective on offense. 

This game is at night, in Spartan Stadium.  The place is going to be rocking.  I think this favors us a lot.  However, I think Wisconsin is legit.  They are big, their running back is fast, and the ability of Wilson to scramble adds another dimension to their offense.   As much as it pains me to type this I do not think MSU wins this one.  31-27 Wisconsin.  Prove me wrong State!!