The Era of Denard Robinson

Hail.

The Story: Denard Robinson has done countless amazing things as Michigan's quarterback.  He dropped the snap on his first ever college play as a true freshman, only to scoop it up and dazzle his way to a touchdown.  He has set numerous records for single game yardage performances, led Michigan to two improbable and spectacular victories against Notre Dame, and he's even made a name for himself as the most electrifying player in college football. 

He's good.  You know.

But just how good is he?

It's an interesting time for some legacy talk with Denard.  For all his greatness, he's been a part of the program during truly difficult times.  He's 0-2 versus the Spartans as a starter (0-5 overall against OSU and MSU) and despite two seemingly signature wins against Notre Dame, lacks the consistency of resume to be placed among the truly elite in Michigan lore.  I often see Michigan fans placing Denard in the same breath as players such as Woodson, Howard, Carter and Harmon.  To this point, despite all his crazy statistics and accolades, he has not earned that elite company.

A Caveat: Football certainly is a team game, and much of Denard's failures have come as a result of a lack of talent around him, (how much worse would things have been without him the last year and a half?) yet the truly great players transcend those hurdles and elevate those around them to new heights.

Crossroads: Robinson played his worst game as Michigan's starter just two weeks ago in East Lansing.  There were some mitigating factors (like a very good Spartan defense and a trash tornado) but Denard's play actually led some Michigan fans to call for Devin Gardner to play quarterback and Denard to be moved elsewhere.  Those people are lunatics, but Denard's career could go a couple ways from here.  He could remain what he is, an electrifying runner who trounces over-matched opponents and is able to inconsistently move the ball with his arm but falls short against good defenses and on the biggest stages, or he could take the next step and move onto the list with all the other Michigan greats.

With Purdue visiting Ann Arbor this weekend, Michigan sits at 6-1 with four games remaining.  Denard is essentially through half his career as Michigan's starter.  Michigan should beat Purdue, but this next 4 game stretch will define Denard Robinson for the rest of his career.  The ever-lying eyeball test reveals Michigan is a better team this season.  Just how much better will be spelled out for us over the next four weeks.   If the team (and Denard) struggle and Michigan loses three (especially if one of those is to OSU) of the remaining 5 games, the Devin Gardner heat will intensify this summer and the Denard Robinson era will likely end one of hope and potential but ultimately disappointment.  It's time to see improvement in Denard Robinson, improvement that comes against Big Ten opponents and leads to meaningful victories.  It needs to start this week against Purdue. 

I apologize to you, Charles, for what I am about to say...

The previous paragraph I wrote Denard Robinson's era at Michigan may be remembered with disappointment, but at a true crossroads there is another path.   If Denard is able to steer down this vastly different path, he has the potential and opportunity to go down as THE greatest Wolverine of all-time.  That's lofty, too lofty your brain just said, but just imagine if Michigan wins 4 out it's last 5 games with a victory over OSU and Denard has some monster games (this is in my realm of possibility, am I crazy?)  A bowl game win for an 11-2 record and an entire off-season to continue to refine his skills as a passer and Denard will be an early season favorite for the Heisman trophy in 2012.  Michigan will have a bunch of marquee games for a senior Denard to lead them in and if he is able to lead Michigan to a magical season (a giant IF, but one that becomes more probable when you assume improvement in his own game) it would be even more special because of the circumstances of the last few seasons.  Combined with his assault on all of Michigan's (and the NCAA's) record books and it's possible that in just over 14 months Denard Robinson could be the greatest.

He may never reach the realm of the truly elite, but then again...



3 Things to Watch Versus Purdue:

1) Can Michigan throw the football?  

If Denard comes out and tosses the ball all around, Michigan is going to run away with the game.  If Denard is throwing bounce passes and interceptions, buckle-up.  The hard part about this is Denard can look atrocious one possession and magnificent the next, so I guess buckle-up either way.

2) Bye-Bye Bye Week

Michigan came out as flat as I have ever seen a team play football last season after their bye week.  I expect a much better effort in the Big House on Saturday.  If they have no emotion, Purdue has enough talent to make them pay.


3) Can Purdue make big plays? 

Michigan's defense has given up yards this season but has come up with turnovers at opportune times and held fairly strong in the red zone.  They are not a lights-out shut you down defense. (they were 108th in the country last year after all)   However, Michigan has rarely ceded big plays this season.  In fact, I don't believe the defense has given up a single play of more than 40 yards.  Purdue may need a couple big gainers and big touchdowns if they want to win the game. 

Prediction: 

If this game was on the road, I'd be awfully nervous.  As is, I'm paranoid because I'm worried about what a loss would do to the team's psyche after a difficult couple of years.  I don't think Purdue is a very good ball club. (they lost to Rice...even more damning, they played AT Rice)  They are a team that will claw tooth and nail to try to reach a bowl game and probably come up one game short.

Michigan 33 - 20

By Joy or Beer, I was Drunk

And I mean drunk.

That was fun.  I've only watched the game in one delirious viewing so I have no idea what it means for the season or if Michigan and Notre Dame are any good or if the defense has improved at all or if this offense will properly utilize Denard.  I only know one thing; I love football. 

You know that song "Don't you wish your girlfriend was hot like me?"  Is that what it feels like for fans of opposing teams to watch Denard? 

Some not Michigan related things:

MSU's defense put on a show.  I watched none of that game so Tbone will have to fill us in on the details.

PSU got beat by the Crimson Tide in about the fashion I expected.  They are going to compete in the Leaders division and could still even win it.  What take away from that game?  Alabama is good. 

Trent Dilfer is the best color guy on television and it's not even close.  (He did the 2nd game of the Monday night doubleheader on ESPN)

Lights, Dude

Let there be...

What a novel idea, playing sports at night. Even the Cubs gave in to pressure long ago and began playing night games.  Finally, Michigan will do the same.

Notre Dame comes off a turnover filled loss to South Florida and Michigan comes in feeling good about their blowout win over Western.  So you would think a 1-0 Michigan would be a solid favorite at home over an 0-1 Notre Dame...but Vegas has ND -3.5.

It's going to be a wild one in Ann Arbor Saturday night.  Here are:

3 Things to Watch

1. Will the pressure get home? 

Michigan's secondary looks like it's improved.  Michigan's secondary does not appear to be improved tremendously.  Michael Floyd plays for ND.  This is bad.  Floyd will have a massive game unless Michigan can get regular pressure on ND's quarterbacks.  Floyd is probably going to have a big game regardless, but a couple of hurried mistakes by Rees or sacks to stop drives would be just what the doctor ordered.  Michigan didn't get home with their front four in the Western game, they may have to against Notre Dame.  It will be interesting to see if Mattison can dial up blitz packages that get home two weeks in a row. If Rees has all day in the pocket, the Irish will win this game.

2. Is Notre Dame's defense overrated?

Denard Robinson torched those guys last year.  And then everyone kept saying how improved ND's defense was throughout the season and how great Monte Te'o plays at MLB.  After lopsided yardage numbers in game one, the Irish defense is still being talked about as a dominant unit.  I think maybe ND's D is a bit overrated.  If Michigan gets stuffed in the running game, I'll being to believe the hype.


3. Unleashing of Drob

In what should be a very competitive game throughout, it will be very interesting to watch how often Borges turns to Robinson in key situations.  He's going to run more than he did against Western, but how much is the big question. 


Prediction

I've been waffling here all week.  I really think Michigan is going to struggle defensively in this game.  I also have a sneaking suspicion the offense might explode and have a huge day as well.  I'd be surprised if this isn't a shootout.  Call me Simpson, I'm going with:

Michigan 38-28

Now you answer me this

As a MSU fan, these are the things that UM needs to look out for the most, as I see it.


(Pat will be in parenthesis and italics)

#1  Passing game.

Can Denard get behind center and pass the ball?  I know he is able to, he lit up teams like Massachusetts and Illinois, but can he do that consistently?  My concern when watching him pass is that hes no overly tall so slants across the middle could get lost behind the boys in the trenches.

(1. While this is certainly a concern, I think it's also overplayed.  Al Borges has been around the block and I'm not too concerned Denard is going to be put into a drop back passing role exclusively.  He'll operate out of the shotgun a huge percentage of the time and the offense will utilize a lot of rollouts when he's under center and they want to play action. 


The biggest difference from last year's offense to this year's is going to be running power.  The line is going to be tasked with drive blocking and a running back is going to follow a full back from the I and try to make four yards.  This will happen 8-15 times per game.  In my opinion, the success of this play is a much larger concern than the passing game.)


#2 Defense

Obviously, UM will improve their defense, it will be hard to go anywhere but up.  But how far up?  What kind of overall defensive numbers will you need to put up to gain an extra win?  If there isn't some serious and I am talking SERIOUS improvement, Hoke will already be hearing grumblings from the fan base. 


(2. Real creative Tbone.  110th.  That was Michigan's defensive rank last season.  Get that # to 60th or so and it would be a gigantic leap..  I also think it's possible.  Injuries, lack of depth, Greg Robinson having no clear idea of what he wanted to do and a general malaise regarding defense all rolled together to create an opponent touchdown train unlike anything I've ever seen before.  Watching Michigan's defense last year was like watching the Lions play the Colts on Thanksgiving that one year where the Colts threw a touchdown pass on seemingly every play.  It was like 35-0 after one quarter.  Imagine watching that every week and Matt Mcgloin and Nathan Scheelhaase are playing Peyton Manning and you keep trying to blink yourself out of the twilight zone but instead you open your eyes to see Greg Robinson rubbing stuffed animals on players faces on the sideline.  


This is going to sound crazy...but there's some talent on this defense.  Mike Martin is a flat out stud. (who's season was never as productive after he suffered a high ankle sprain on an illegal chop block by the Spartans)  Ryan VanBergen is a very solid senior defensive tackle.  Troy Woolfolk comes back from missing an entire season and is easily the best player in the secondary.  Kenny Demens was good after Robinson finally put him in to replace Obi Ezeh after the MSU game last year.  Jordan Kovacs is about as solid as a Jordan Kovacs can be. (he is also a point of consternation for the UM fan base, but IMO he's a good player)  Craig Roh is playing defensive end again, after a debacle at linebacker.  All those young players who got burned a lot last year are a year older and maybe a little bigger and stronger and more ready for college football. 


So yeah, Michigan's defense is clearly the #1 concern for this season.  I know they are going to be better, how much better is the big question.)

#3 Depth

How is the depth?  This was a serious problem last year on both sides of the ball for UM.  Is this freshman class enough to caulk up some of those holes?  Id say more than anything the lack of depth on the offense and defense cost UM 2 games.


(3. Depth is improved vastly in the secondary, somewhat at linebacker and is relatively thin up front on both sides of the ball.  One or two injuries to the defensive front would certainly be devastating.  They could deal with one or two on the offensive line but nothing more.  Depth is fine at WR and RB.  I don't think depth is that big of an issue, DL is the one big scary place but almost all teams have one position group where their depth is thin.)