Up From the Comments

Pat posts this zinger on my joke post:

"Doesn't work that way...Penn State's wins are vacated but MSU doesn't get a win. Ohio State still had a a better record than MSU in 2008 as well. Good try Sparty. You're still at 7 Big Ten championships in your illustrios history. Though it is frustrating that Michigan has been stuck on 42 Big Ten Championships for awhile now..."

First off, I am aware that we dont get any extra wins.  Meant to be a joke guys.

The bigger thing here is the arrogance factor of that comment, someone mad that his players are getting arrested left and right?  Seems like a loss of institutional control to me.

Someone get this guy a drink!

And this guy some keys.

Fitzgerald Toussaint and Frank Clark, they should  be back by what, the second quarter against Alabama?  

A Rivals Perspective

Here I will outline the case for why MSU fans should temper expectations for 2012.  I'll admit before I start that I'm taking a very pessimistic stance, (or is that optimistic as a Michigan fan?)

Below are 3 reasons MSU fans should be leery of 2012.

#1: Luck Always Runs Out

The Spartans have enjoyed tremendous success under Mark Dantonio the past two seasons.  After a losing record in 2009, MSU won a share of the B1G title while winning 11 games in 2010.

The magical 2010 season included the "Little Giants" victory over Notre Dame, a  miraculous (2 TD's in the final 2 minutes) victory over Northwestern and another amazing comeback (aided by a blocked punt) to beat a bad Purdue team after trailing by 11 in the 4th quarter.   Momentum came to a screeching halt when the Spartans got their teeth knocked in by Alabama in the bowl game. Still, 2010 was a banner year with a share of the Big Ten title and an 11-2 record but the Spartans won every close game in which they competed while being blown off the field in both losses.

Along came 2011 and the MSU good fortune continued.  Right up until the B1G championship game, MSU once again never fell in a close game.  They were beaten soundly by Notre Dame and smothered by Nebraska while winning on Hail Mary against Wisconsin and beating Ohio State 10-7 in what was the most abysmal display of offense ever seen.  MSU built on their great season with an overtime victory over Georgia, this time getting revenge on the SEC.

It's easy to look at all this and realize MSU has maximized their win totals the previous two seasons.  They have played good football, but 11-2, 11-3?  Those records were only possible with very good fortune.  And the thing about luck...it always runs out.

#2: Paper Tiger Defense

Michigan State finished the season as the 5th ranked defense in the country (yards per game) and the 9th ranked defense (points per game).  These gaudy statistics, combined with returning talent (which we have been outlining for you in our defensive position group previews) has Spartans believing their defense is going to shut down errbody.  But not so fast my friend, before crowing MSU's D as one of the best in the country, let's take a look at that 2011 schedule more closely. 

Below is the Spartans schedule followed by their opponents offensive rank (ypg) for 2011.

Youngstown State - Mediocre 6-5 FCS team. Stats unavailable for FCS.
Florida Atlantic - 120th
Notre Dame - 35th
Central Michigan - 57th
Ohio State - 107th
Michigan - 42nd
Wisconsin - 14th
Nebraska - 66th
Minnesota - 110th
Iowa - 76th
Indiana - 83rd
Northwestern - 34th
Wisconsin - 14th
Georgia - 39th


MSU faced a top 25 offense (Wisconsin) only twice all season.  They faced a top 50 offense in only 6 out of 14 contests on the season.  On the other side of the coin, they played against 3 teams that finished in the bottom 20 for offense including the worst offensive team in the entire country, along with an FCS foe that isn't listed but certainly had a listless offense. 

This isn't to mention the tornado like winds during games with Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska diminishing each teams offense in those games, or the fact that when MSU played Ohio State they were still starting and playing Joe Bauserman at quarterback.


The case above is pretty clear: MSU's defensive statistics and the so-called dominance of their defense were both greatly exaggerated by playing extremely poor offensive teams. 



#3: Kirk Cousins

What do the 2009 and 2012 Spartan teams have in common? 
A first year starting QB.

MSU entered 2009 with Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins battling for the starting position.  That season ended with a 6-7 record.  This season things are more clear as Andrew Maxwell is the clear cut leader of the Spartans offense.  Still, Cousins leadership, dependability, play making and starting experience all have contributed mightily to MSU's success the last two seasons.  He's gone.  It will be a new guy leading that offense in the huddle, changing plays at the line of scrimmage and facing Big Ten road crowds.  Would MSU have won with a first year starting QB at Ohio State last year?  Would they have won on Hail Mary against Wisconsin?  Could they have defeated Georgia?  The loss of Cousins is going to diminish the effectiveness of the offenses and make things as simple as play calling more difficult.  Maxwell has talent but he's barely seen the field.  Expect his inexperience to cost MSU in at least a game or two this season.  Maxwell may someday be a star, but it will be difficult for him to keep quarterback play on the same level it has been the last two seasons in East Lansing and college football, after all, is all about the QB.

Do the Math

(I probably just lost any Spartans readers at that header...)

A team with an overrated defense and an inexperienced quarterback which has been pumped up by luck in numerous close games sees it all come crashing back to earth this season.

Michigan DTs

Ed Note: This is Pat projecting it, I am just posting it. Hopefully this will mean ill get my butt in gear to have MSU DT up tonight or tomorrow.


DT

Let's get the previews started!  Last season saw Michigan and MSU both enjoy great seasons defensively.  Michigan's defense had a miraculous turnaround from being one of the worst in the country to a top 20 squad.  MSU had a dominant defense that led to their appearance in the conference title game and bowl victory over the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs.  Both defenses were led up front by their defensive line and especially their defensive tackles. 

The 2011 Michigan team (team 132) had an interesting lineup at DT.  It looked something like this:

NT (the 1-tech): Sr Mike Martin with backup Will Campbell
DT (the 3-tech):  Walk-on Sr Will Henninger with Sr Ryan Van Bergen rotating into this spot. 

Depth was provided by Sophomore Quinton Washington who saw occasional snaps.  The Wolverines just saw Mike Martin drafted in the third round (the highest Wolverine drafted) and will need to replace both his production and leadership. 

The depth chart above shows just why defensive tackle is a huge question mark for Michigan entering the season.  Luckily, Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison are both defensive line coaches and there are some talented big men ready to step in and produce up front.

The contenders for playing time:

NT (the 1-tech): Will Campbell (Sr) Richard Ash (So) Ondre Pipkins (Fr)
DT (the 3-tech): Jibreel Black (Jr) Quinton Washington (Jr) Nathan Brink (Walk-on Jr)

The big question that needs to be answered is can Will Campbell finally live up to his massive hype?  Can he at least be a productive Big Ten player?  He has shown flashes in the past and has the size and athleticism to be a standout but his technique and effort are concerns.  Like many tall DT's, Campbell has shown a great tendency to stand up at the snap of the ball.  If he can keep his pad level down he could turn himself into an NFL player.  How often does a guy enter his senior year and you aren't sure if he's going to end up being drafted or if he's going to lose his starting spot and never pan out?  A rare case indeed. 

Michigan does have bodies at these positions.  Richard Ash has gotten some positive reviews out of spring practice and likely will contribute and get regular snaps.  JIbreel Black moving inside from the 5-tech to the 3-tech makes Michigan a little smaller up front but gives them great speed, athleticism and versatility.  Washington and Ash could both end up playing the nose or the 3-tech. 

Pat's prediction:

At the nose, Campbell starts the year and while he has some growing pains he is a solid Big Ten starter.  He won't put up big numbers but will eat up space and blockers allowing other defenders to be more effective.  Ondre Pipkins proves to simply be too good to keep on the bench and gets 10-15 snaps per game by the end of the year.  The other DT position sees a rotation of guys coming in and out and has some issues in run defense but is productive in rushing the passer.

Overall I think this unit will cause some frustration if they cannot hold the line of scrimmage against big offensive lines that run downhill but I think they'll be quite effective against spread teams.   This is the greatest concern for Michigan's defense heading into 2012 and while it is unlikely to be a great strength, the potential for production is there.

The Golden Era (For Michigan, Naturally)

Tbone and I have been a bit sporadic with content on this blog and for that we apologize to our multitude of  readers.  (the 3 of you)

We've thought about what content to bring you and why you would want to come here to read.  There are countless blogs on MSU and UofM sports already out there and they do an extremely good job so we would like to come at this rivalry specifically with content that will be interesting for all.

So here's the plan heading into the spring and summer...we are going to preview the football rosters by position and argue about each position individually (starters and depth) to determine that Michigan is better at every single position group and has a far superior team...at least that's the hypothesis I will be working against.  From this information we will be able to preview the season and give some predictions on how we think things will play out in the Legends division and in the B1G.  Since I fully expect Tbone's analysis to be belligerently Spartan biased we should also create some good topics for discussion in the comments.

We'll add occasional posts on other happenings and I'll try to amuse you every once in a great while with something clever or witty. (don't hold your breath)

For now, let us reminisce about a time long past.  It was 2011, around May or June and Michigan had recently been annihilated by Mississippi State, fired their coach, hired a new guy and were off to a sizzling start to recruiting for the 2012 class.  The Spartans, meanwhile, were coming off their most successful season during Tbone's green fanhood and yet their recruiting was stuck in neutral.  Our very own blogger, sir Tbone himself, was furious with the way things were going, so much so that he dared question the saint that is Mark Dantonio.  His reasoning was something like this: if MSU cannot capitalize on their on-field success and get more talented recruits, they will never be what Sparants fans long for, they will never be Michigan. (OK, that last bit is my inference)  Tbone even suggested that Saint D wasn't the man for the job at Michigan State.

Fast forward a year and Dantonio has another victory over Michigan notched on his belt and is getting pummeled yet again on the recruiting trail.  Marky Mark himself got testy this winter with Michigan's recruiting coordinator at an event for high school coaches.  Maybe just a simple misunderstanding? Or maybe Dantonio's skin isn't so thick when it comes to recruiting.  Recruiting is the life blood of a great program.  MSU has won 4 straight games over Michigan by capitalizing on the down times for the Wolverines and doing a magnificent job in player development but can they continue to compete with Michigan into the future without increasing the amount of talent they bring in?

My own personal (and irrationally biased) opinion says no.  With the way Hoke and Mattison are recruiting for Michigan (along with Urban Meyer at OSU) there is a golden era on the horizon for Michigan football.  Dantonio has built a program at MSU, but you need elite talent to remain competitive with elite teams.  It won't begin this year, as Ohio State is not eligible to play in the B1G championship game, but there may be some rematches in the title game in the near future.  The next decade could see a return to the Big 2 and little 10.  MSU has risen up to take the mantle from their big brother but unless things change in the recruiting game, it's hard not to see a future where Michigan restores itself firmly atop this rivalry.

This Is Michigan

It's fair to say I was less than enthused with the Hoke hire.  It wasn't so much a knock on Hoke as disappointment in missing out on Harbaugh and the sabotaging of the 2011 recruiting class with how the entire coaching search and hiring played out.   

Hoke seemed alright.  He had turned some teams around and was well respected in coaching circles.  I was optimistic but I wouldn't say I was excited.  Hoke did strum a few chords with his answer to one question at his introductory press conference.

Then Brady hired Greg Mattison to be the defensive coordinator. A competent defensive coordinator who is also a tremendous recruiter*?  Yes please I'd love the anti Greg Robinson....I allowed myself to get a little pumped up.  

The turning point came for me before fall practice began, at the Big Ten media days.  Press conferences are just words, but there was something in what Hoke said that made me believe.  "This is Michigan" was music to my ears.  (It was apparently music to the athletic departments ears as well, as they have built the promotional campaign for this season around Hoke's comments.)

Here's my quick transcript:

The question is posed on what it will take to rebuild Michigan.  (At the 9:20 mark of the video)

"I don't think we're rebuilding.  Period.  I mean, we're Michigan.  And we've got kids who understand that they're Michigan.  So I don't put any stock into that."

When asked about recruiting. (12:20 mark)

 "This might sound arrogant and if it is, it is.  We're Michigan.  We have a global education.  We're the winningest program in the history of college football."

A 58-0 romp over a Big Ten team probably says more about Minnesota's utter incompetence than it says about Michigan's return to prominence, but a complete annihilation of a Big Ten opponent made me feel like "This is Michigan" again.  It feels good.


* Urban Meyer referred to Mattison as the best recruiter in all of college football.

Heading into Big Ten Play

4-0

He seems rather happy about 4-0.

For the third consecutive season Michigan sweeps their non-conference schedule. We've seen this storyline before, exciting victory over Notre Dame and wins over lesser competition get Michigan into the top 25 in September.  The last two seasons the starts have been followed by collapse in B1G play.  Will this year be any different?

Well, maybe.

3 Reasons 2011 Michigan is different than 2010 and 2009.

1) Defensive stops

Yeah I know.  This is a new phenomena after the recent history at Michigan.  There are some reasons for concern (ND still racked up yards, competition level hasn't been great) but also some reasons for optimism (young guys stepping up, the secondary doesn't look like a sieve, Greg Mattison has coherent scheme)

There are still plenty of question marks with this unit heading into Big Ten play, and they are unlikely to be world beaters, but if they can just get stops they will give Denard and the offense a shot to win every game.  So far, they have done enough.  Can they keep it up?


2) Turnovers

When you don't get them, you usually bring up statistics to show how turnover numbers from year to year usually regress to the mean.  Now that Michigan IS forcing turnovers, I would like to believe that the improvement is real and due to coaching, improvement, rather than simple regression to the mean.  Again, we will find out soon in Big Ten games.  If the defense is able to continue creating turnovers, this could be a special season.


3) Special Teams

1-2 on FG's doesn't seem spectacular, but the kicking game and the return game have both been good.  I'm actually not that concerned about FG's.  This phase of the game has gone from a glaring weakness to something of a strength.  That feels awfully weird to type, in a good way.

Happy?  Yeah, but still gotta coach em up.

You can't have one without the other....

3 Reasons for Concern as Big Ten Play Begins

1) Can Denard throw?

He's a top 10 Heisman candidate, so when he's your top concern you have some good things going on, but can Denard throw the football in this offense?  He's had some accuracy issues and the offense seems to have some problems getting into a rhythm in the passing game, but they are running so effectively that the concern is lessened.  If they want to win more than half their Big Ten games, Denard needs to pick it up in the passing game.


2) Linebacker play

The defensive line is developing a rotation, making plays and improving each game.  They aren't going to be dominant but they have been and can be solid.  The secondary has played well and looks like the most improved unit on the defense.  The linebackers, however, still make too many mistakes.  The outside backers give up contain and Demens in the middle has some problems when he's not making plays downhill.  They aren't going to be a massive problem like in years past, but I'm a little worried about their mistakes being magnified by better competition.  This unit needs to play well to limit opposition running game which is essential to B1G success.


3) Depth on the Oline

It hasn't yet hurt Michigan in the way that MSU has gotten stung by injuries to a thin unit, but the threat is there.  After the SDSU game, two of Michigan's starting lineman were limping/banged up.  The depth is so thin with this unit that two injuries would result in a big drop-off on the field.  This is a wait and see situation, all we can do is hope for health.