A Week Seems Like A Year

As you know a lot has happened in the B1G and for MSU over the last week.  Pat is still AWOL and there are no signs of his return, at least until he gets back to California.  Maryland and Rutgers to the B1G (ugh) MSU eeked one out past Minnesota (yay).  michigan lost to OSU (meh).  Coupled with that have been some basketball games.  Where MSU has won some close ones, lost a sloppy one and cruised to a victory.

This MSU basketball team is the tale of two teams.  A team with a backup point guard and a team without.  MSU looks a lot better when Trice is playing.  Trice is a career (approximately)  48% three point shooter.  Last year he shot just over 40% and this year is shooting 56% (though his total shots this year are hardly enough to predict season results).  But this is what Trice can bring to the MSU team, a three point threat (and a breather for Appling)  Should Trice keep up his current pace of 1.6 threes made per game.  That would likely land him in the top ten in the B1G.  That seems like a stat he is more likely to upkeep versus the 56% made.  For comparison sake, Trice made .93 threes per game.  Even if he were to land somewhere in the middle of .93 and 1.6 that would be an extra dimension that seems to be missing (hopefully Byrd can get going, get some confidence).

 

(make more of these please)

The Spartan Football team was able to make a bowl game!!!! WHOOO HOOOOO.  Pat and I both had the Spartans pegged for 9-3.  We were just a bit off - a call or a field goal away from being there though.  I guess that's sports.  The defense was every bit as advertised - in some aspects better and some aspects worse.  What was shockingly poor was the offense.  Line injuries, I feel, really hampered the development of the passing game.  I am 100% not in the Spartan camp that thinks we should have been playing Connor Cook.  Those people are loony.  Where do go from here though?  Well, we go to a bowl game.  The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl against TCU.  Seems winnable. More on that later.  What I would like to talk about is next year.  Or as Mark Dantonio said at the team banquet "You will be the ones. And you know what I mean by that" (thank you Joe Rexrode twitter).  So what is meant by that?  Winning football games, duh!  MSU is looking to bounce back from a meh 6-6 season.  I would love an 8-4 year next year.  Looking ahead, the schedule is more favorable for MSU (the problem with that is that the only good home game is against UM).  With road games at Notre Dame and Nebraska. 

Tonight MSU basketball plays Arkansas Pine Bluff in what should be a sleeper of a game.  No sense in writing a write up for this game.  Especially since I will be at work missing most of the game.

Coming up next on the blog, is MSU Football entering a Wide Receiver apex?  Was this really a down year for the B1G?   Will Pat ever blog again, or is he resting on his past accomplishments, like a typical michigan fan?

B1G Hoops

Let's wrap up the season

For Michigan, a first round exit from the tournament was a disappointment but you hang the banner for the Big Ten championship and look back on this season as the one where Michigan's basketball program established itself as a regular contender.  Michigan's program has not been in a place where any reasonable fan can be disappointed with a Big Ten championship and a first round NCAA tournament exit.  But now, maybe the program has reached that level.  It has been significant, what these guys have done.  The banner goes up and the future looks brighter than ever.

Here's where I give thanks to Zack and Stu, one unranked out of high school, the other a two star.  Three NCAA tournament appearances and a Big Ten championship during their four seasons at Michigan.  A great run by any measure.  

I remember reading countless message board posts about 15 months ago (Michigan was off to a horrendous start to Big Ten play during the 2011 season) suggesting different names for who should be Michigan's next basketball coach.  One and a half seasons later and the program is in a better spot than it's been in two decades.  Amazing how fast things can change.  I'd wager that Beilein's approval rating would be rather high right now. (Insert Derrick Nix joke here?)

The future is bright, but it also contains some great questions and concerns.  Immediately following the loss to the Bobcats, Michigan lost three players to transfer.  The loss of Evan Smotcryz is a significant one as his ability to stretch the floor and shoot from distance as a PF was a key ingredient in JB's offense the past couple of season.  Evan was a player who could wow you with his potential but never seemed to put it together on both ends of the floor.  He was always a liability defensively.  Still, his loss, along with the departures of Novak and Douglass will be felt next season.  Luckily Michigan has it's best recruiting class in over a decade to help restock the roster with talent.

Speaking of that recruiting class.  I really like all three players.  I think Nik Stauskas could surprise as a JJ Redick clone.  He may finally be the heralded three point shooter who simply doesn't miss if he's open.  Big Dog Jr will probably come in and be the biggest contributor from day 1.  He will immediately be Michigan's best athlete on the floor with his length and explosiveness.  And the final piece is Mitch McGary, the once #2 rated prospect in the country who has fallen off a bit after his senior year wasn't as good as his AAU season.   I'm not sure if McGary can play the 4 in Beilein's offense so he will probably battle for minutes with Morgan and Horford at the 5 and get some minutes at the 4 as well.  I expect Trey Robinson to start the 4 from day 1 when he steps on campus.  He'll be battling against redshirt freshman Max Beifeldt and his buddy McGary for that spot.

There is one question that still remains and that is Trey Burke, will he stay or will he go?  I think it would be another poor decision by a Michigan athlete if he leaves, but after Manny and Darius the last two seasons I have given up trying to predict young men's decisions based on logic.  He'll do what he wants and Michigan will adjust.  If he returns, Michigan is probably a top ten team.  If he leaves...Michigan will struggle to make the NCAA tournament with no ball handler on the roster.

Here's an early look at how I think Michigan's rotation shakes out (assuming Burke returns)

PG: Burke (35 minutes) Akunne (5)
SG: Nik Stauskas (25) Matt Vogrich (10) Tim Hardaway Jr (5)
SF: Hardaway (25) Glenn Robinson Jr (10) Vogrich (5)
PF: Robinson (20) Beifeldt (15) McGary (5)
C: Morgan (15) McGary (15) Horford (10)

I think a starting lineup of Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Robinson and Morgan gives Michigan the best blend of experience, athleticism and shooting ability.  I'm excited about the development of Horford and Beifeldt and can't wait to see what they can do this season.  McGary is an X-factor and if JB feels he can play the 4, you could see Stauskas move to the bench with Hardaway and Burke in the backcourt and Robinson at the 3.  The most striking thing about next year's lineup is that no matter how you look at it Michigan is all of a sudden, big, long and athletic.  No longer will Michigan enter a game as an athletic mismatch who will have to out-shoot it's opponents to win.  They will be able to beat lesser teams by overpowering them with athleticism.

That green team

Draymond Green's amazing run at Michigan State ended with a loss in the sweet 16.  For MSU, expectations are great and result in feeling disappointed at the end to a great season.  I think Spartan fans should look on this season with great appreciation for what their team accomplished after such a difficult 2011.

Michigan State is going to be a top 10 team in 2013 and I am curious to see how minutes shake out in the backcourt.  Gary Harris is too good to keep off the floor, so Appling is probably going to have to play a lot at the point again next season.  I think MSU should really look to push the ball next season when Dawson returns and Harris joins the fold.  I'm not sure if MSU will be as good as they were this year but they have the potential to be extremely fun to watch.

The B1G is going to be scary good again next year...

Take a look at this way-too-early ranking of NCAA basketball teams for 2013.  If you don't want to look, Andy Katz and company have Indiana #1, OSU #5, MSU #7 and Michigan #8.  4 of the top 8?  IU as the #1 overall team?  And I thought the Big Ten was a brutally tough conference to win in this season...

You Can Get With This or You Can Get With That

So where to begin?  First of all, the MSU bball team is getting some major praise.  SI seems to think we will make the final 4.  I am not too sure about that at this point.  I would like to see more scoring and better interior defense.  However, we seem to have pieces in place that other F4 MSU teams had.  This includes strong rebounding, the ability to run the floor, and someone that can just plain make jump shots when needed.  The biggest thing I think that works in our favor is our ability to get out and score in transition is back.  This is something that seemed to be missing from last years team and something I love seeing more and more of.  Anytime a team wants to run with us, we can match it.  That seems to be a hallmark of Izzo teams, more so than tough rebounding. The ability to run the floor. 

The next game for MSU is at NW.  This is a fun game to go to. I live in Chicago and will not be able to attend however.  Like the football games, there is a strong MSU fan presence.  NW is not team to sleep on however.  Shurna can get hot from anywhere on the floor and rain it.  Last year, MSU was able to shut down Shurna with the bigger Roe guarding him.  This year, that task will be up to Draymond.  Shurna is the B1Gs leading scorer at over 18 ppg.  Shurna has two inches at Green, however, Green has a bit more girth.  I do not expect Shurna to try to back Green down in the post, instead rely on his deceptive quickness off of screens to pop shots off.  MSU will have to very active on screen switches and make sure to guard against back cuts to limit the Wildcat offense.  I see MSU winning this game, but would not be surprised at a let down either. Offensively MSU has advantages in the post and will use them at times when buckets are needed.  Based off of watching previous games against NW, MSU will look to fast break it after NW buckets to try to get some back. The guard play will be key in their ability to distribute the basketball, slow the tempo when needed and also pick the spots to both attack the rim and shoot the ball.  With that, distribution will be key.  The post players for NW cannot match up with our 4's and 5's.  I see Dawson straight abusing people at times.  We will go with 67-57 final score.  Player of the game?  Dawson.  He is due for a "break out game" and his athleticism should be a mismatch for whoever guards him from Northwestern. 

Whats that? you like tattoos?  How about this one? 

To all you recruits out there, which I am sure there are none of you reading this blog, You can get with this, or you can get with that.  That song reference will reach just about zero recruits, but I do not care.  I just hope Nick Hill was able to pay for this with his own money.  I guess if you post it for everyone to see, your comfortable with the payment source. 

O yea, MSU and UM play in basketball in 4 days.  If MSU wins, this will looks to be a match up of two top ten teams.  nice. 

Weekend Roundup

So there are all kinds of things to discuss today.  I will start off with Americas next great hope for the heavyweight title.  The story from MLive is here.  This is a pretty good story too as far as boxing stories go.  The guy Seth is going against is older, more seasoned and higher ranked.  The match will be on HBO.  I will be watching it, or at the very least, DVRing to watch later. 

Last night, MSU played at UM in hockey and lost.  From the write up it sounded like a hard fought game, lot of grit, some offensive flare from a sold out Yost Arena.  I will add that, my first division one collegiate hockey game was at Yost.  Pat took me to a UM versus Miami Ohio game. I think the student section ended a chant with pig fucker.  This year, UM started the year as the number one ranked team in the country.  However, after a number of tough losses, the Wolverines are no longer ranked.  The Spartans came into this game having won 8 of their last 11 and holding a number 14 ranking.  The game tonight moves to Munn Ice Arena where the 1986  national championship team will be honored.  I expect this to be another tight contest.   The MSU/UM hockey games are my favorite of the rivalry to attend - yes, over football.  I just love hockey.  I am gonna predict a 4-3 win for MSU, the opposite of last night game. Tune into the BTN tonight to watch.

What else is there?  O yea.  MSU plays at Gonzaga, tipoff is slated for 9 eastern, I think on ESPN.  This will be the Spartans first true road test.  After playing on an aircraft carrier, in MSG, and at Eastern (sorry Eagles).  Look for there to be plenty of coverage on Jud Hethcote who will be sitting between the two benches watching his two proteges, Tom Izzo and Mark Few lead their teams.  But do not be fooled by Jud's adoptive home of Spokane, he will be rooting for the Spartans the entire game.  Here is a good interview done by Joe Rexrode.  The key for MSU to win this game will be the perimeter defense.  Illinois was able to sneak out a win on their home court against the Zags by shooting over 50% from the floor.  I am not sure MSU will be able to do that, so defense will be key.  After the soft play of Payne in the last game, Izzo was quoted as saying that Elias Harris must be licking a big dog bone in anticipation of Payne coming in.   So how will perimeter D win?  Easy.  THe Zags will look to shoot the three by working an inside outside game.  Our bigs are going to have to grow up defensivly quick because we cannot afford to have our wings double down and leave the Bulldog shooters open.  Stopping dribble penetration, and keeping hands in the face of three point shooters will go a long way towards a Spartan victory.  If MSU wins this game, I think it could be a catalyst for B1G play.  I like our chances but we are going to need to shoot the ball as well as defend it.  This is a game where Wood needs to show up.  He is a great scorer that goes through both hot and cold spells for us.  If wood were to drive the lane and pick up some fouls on the Gonzaga bigs. MSU can start to exploit any substitutions the Bulldogs make.  With that, Payne and Nix need to be able to bang down low.  Get them the ball and please o please do not turn it over/concert your three foot chances.  Elias Harris is 6-7 and Robert Sacre is 7-0.  That is a lot of length and both are lean and mean.  Nix with his shorter stature will need to be able to use strength to create room for his shots.  While Payne measures up well with both these guys, his post moves are less refined than Nix's.  For Payne to have success he is going to need to use his athletic ability.  Avoid being boxed out, run the floor and leap over the Gonzaga bigs.  This will be a good game to watch, and I like our chances.  I think the three will start falling for us, and Appling will put in a superb defensive effort on the perimiter.  I will call it 76-71 MSU.  Please leave your prediction in the comments!

Go Green!

ACC/B1G Challenge

So here we are, another basketball season is in full swing.  MSU has been about what everyone expected compiling a 4-2 record with losses to UNC and Duke.  As a side note, MSU is the first team since NC State to play UNC and Duke as the first two games of the year.  I think that was sometime in the 70s, but don't quote me on that.  As of now the B1G sits with a 4-2 lead over the ACC in this years edition of the challenge.  What should we expect out of tonight's match up featuing MSU and Florida State?

First off expect a lot of offensive rebounding.  MSU currently rebounds their own misses at a rate of 35% while FSU is at 38%.  To go along with that, both teams love turning the ball over.  With both teams being over 10% of their possessions ending by losing the ball on possession. 

From there shooting will be a crucial.  FSU will run a lot of zone and force opponents to shoot a lot of three's.  In college, this is how upsets happen.  Unfortunately, MSU is awful at shooting the three ball at 23.8%  At lets be honest, there is one thing that MSU has been awful at for about the last 4 years it is shooting the three.  As a fan, I can only hope we score inside, or someone steps up and finally makes a three  ball. 

With that, both these teams are strong defensively and both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency stats (see kenpom) 

This is a short writeup and as the seasons goes on, I will get more indepth.  However, living in Chicago makes it hard to watch all the MSU games,  in the three I have seen (UNC, Duke UALR)  MSU has looked both good and bad. Off the bat it is easy to say Brandon Wood needs to step his game up, he is not at Valpo anymore.  He needs to score and shoot consistantly.  Along with that, Appling, has been very ineffective.  His best offense has been a charge.  If he can learn a pull up jumper or a tear drop, he could be deadly driving to the hoop.  For good notes,  Dawson has been unbelievable,  same with Nix and at times Payne.  I have not seen Kearney play one possession, and I imagine he wont play a lot all season. Similarly, Russell Byrd has not been able to find his stroke.  It looks pure in the air just isn't going through (please let his shot start falling).

So how can MSU win this?  Well if we can get back to what MSU is known for.  An up tempo game, pushing it out of bounds after rebounds and scoring in transition.  Of course the last time we were in the Final 4, we were hitting shots all year.  This years team has not been able to to that, so far.  This FSU team will be a great challenge with their length and athleticism.  A win would go a long way for MSU and will add a lot of confidence.   Also, Izzone, be loud.  The students mostly suck as football fans, and Izzo has called them out already this year for a lack of enthusiasm.  GET LOUD IZZONE.  In spite of the two teams defenses, I expect an uptempo game. I will call it 68-60 MSU. 

As it has been well stated before.  I am not much for stats in games.  They are nice to look at but when it comes to basketball, any team can get hot or any player can get cold.  Usually in basketball, the team with the best player on the floor wins.  This is especially true of college.  So in future writings you will hear me gripe a lot based on observations.  My observation that Durrell Summers was riding the struggle bus and looked off as far back as last years Maui Invitational almost got me kicked off the prestigious the only colors mainly because I will not back my observations up with any sort of stats.  By the end of the year, my game 2 observation was well established by the stat heads over there, and used as their own brilliant commentary.  You observe the game you see what is going on it is that simple.  That is how I like to watch basketball and that is how the game is played.

Two for One

First off, I gotta say my Iowa MSU  prediction was pretty solid.  Though MSU jumped out to an early lead, 31-7, Iowa clawed its way back and made the final score a lot closer.  And yes, at a few points I was worried we might lose this one. I did not see that game scoring so many points.

The finer points:  Kirk Cousins got some sweet sweet redemption.  No turnovers, and touchdowns to boot.  Touchdowns  you say? Did you see the pass and catch from Kirk to BJ for their second td hookup?  That was an NFL cactch.  BJ is very good.  Also, helluva catch by Edwin Baker for the TD.   The running game got going again with over 150 yards.  And we held Coker to his lowest total of the year with 57 yards.  Our rush defense is very good.  Our pass defense is very solid.  More than that though, our defense makes stops when they need to.  This is an excellent unit. 


Part two is all basketball.  MSU lost and lost big to UNC.  However there were many high points.  First and foremost, MSU's ability to crash to boards was something I have not seen in since 2008!  We dominated the boards in that game.  Unfortunately, UNC dominated the scoring.  Along with that great surprise is Branden Dawson.  Dawson looked very good.  He showed great work on defense, outstanding work on the boards, had he knocked down some jumpers, it would have been a complete game. 

Moving forward, we have MSU playing Duke in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night.  Duke is currently ranked 6th in the country and look to be another great Duke team.  No surprise there.  However, MSU can win this game.  And it comes down the rebounding the ball even more.  For as much as MSU crashed the boards in the carrier classic, they need to do double that in MSG.  MSU is not a good field goal shooting team right now, so getting easy put backs will be necessary.  Byrd did not play very much in the Carrier Classic, but should get more minutes as the season wears on, this will help the FG%.  Also, Appling needs to stop with the offensive fouls.  I fully expect a Duke team to be stepping into the lanes and trying to get charge calls.  So fundamentally sound.  However, Izzo knows this, so look for Appling to continue to cut the lane, only this time dish it for the easy layup or the open jumper.  I also expect Wood to take more of a scorers role in this game.  We need it.  Without Wood scoring, this will be a long long season.  Outside of that, MSU will need to limit the outside scoring of Duke.   Should Mike Krzyzysksi get this win it will be the most victories in NCAA history.  If I know Izzo, he will want none of that record.  Look for MSU to win this game in a hard nosed game. (why couldnt this have been played in the midwest!!)  well call it 67-60 MSU. 

The story of MSU's season will be if they can hit shots, especially the three pointer.  Look for them to quiet that, a little bit, in this game. 

GO GREEN

When it Rains You Get Wet

The hits keep coming.  This is Pearl Jam in the Early 90's.. Too old of a reference?  This is Katie Perry now.  Seriously everyone of her songs is a hit.  Regardless, I have even more MSU news.  Gary Harris has given a verbal commitment to MSU for the class of 2012.  Wow. What a week for college basketball in the state of Michigan.

ESPN has Harris as a 5 star, 97 overall, #1 SG and #10 overall prospect.  The big thing about Gary is that he attacks the basket. Both my driving to the rim and taking his defender on a dribble and pop.   Gary will score many different ways from inside the arc there's no doubt about that. Along with inside the arc, Gary can score from the three.  He is a little more streaky from three point range but is known as a legit threat from three.  Gary is listed at 6-4 195 pounds.  To go with that frame, Gary is very long which helps his defense.  Harris is a Tenacious D-fender.  Gary is able to d up his man one on one and shut it down with his length and athleticism.  Harris is also a very good football player which helps ability on the basketball court (sounds exactly like the kind of player Izzo likes).  Every recruitng site states that Gary is an elite talent that gets better and better as he plays more.

I will personally add that this is the exact player Izzo needed to get.  Along with Dawson, for this currents class, Izzo is on a recruiting tear.  Players with great length and supreme athleticism are the direction the college game and slowly the NBA are headed.  Just look at Kevin Durant - he's the perfect example.  (Or look at UNC's entire roster)

With the rest of the class, Matt Costello, Kenny Kaminski, and Denzel Valentine Izzo has a top 3 class in the country for 2012. 

Michigan may well be the State of basketball for the country.

For an even better writeup on the rest of the class go here: 2012 class
For video of Gary Harris, go here: Video

Thank you The Only Colors and Jay of Michigan Prep Stars for being better bloggers than I.