Let's wrap up the season
For Michigan, a first round exit from the tournament was a disappointment but you hang the banner for the Big Ten championship and look back on this season as the one where Michigan's basketball program established itself as a regular contender. Michigan's program has not been in a place where any reasonable fan can be disappointed with a Big Ten championship and a first round NCAA tournament exit. But now, maybe the program has reached that level. It has been significant, what these guys have done. The banner goes up and the future looks brighter than ever.
Here's where I give thanks to Zack and Stu, one unranked out of high school, the other a two star. Three NCAA tournament appearances and a Big Ten championship during their four seasons at Michigan. A great run by any measure.
I remember reading countless message board posts about 15 months ago (Michigan was off to a horrendous start to Big Ten play during the 2011 season) suggesting different names for who should be Michigan's next basketball coach. One and a half seasons later and the program is in a better spot than it's been in two decades. Amazing how fast things can change. I'd wager that Beilein's approval rating would be rather high right now. (Insert Derrick Nix joke here?)
The future is bright, but it also contains some great questions and concerns. Immediately following the loss to the Bobcats, Michigan lost three players to transfer. The loss of Evan Smotcryz is a significant one as his ability to stretch the floor and shoot from distance as a PF was a key ingredient in JB's offense the past couple of season. Evan was a player who could wow you with his potential but never seemed to put it together on both ends of the floor. He was always a liability defensively. Still, his loss, along with the departures of Novak and Douglass will be felt next season. Luckily Michigan has it's best recruiting class in over a decade to help restock the roster with talent.
Speaking of that recruiting class. I really like all three players. I think Nik Stauskas could surprise as a JJ Redick clone. He may finally be the heralded three point shooter who simply doesn't miss if he's open. Big Dog Jr will probably come in and be the biggest contributor from day 1. He will immediately be Michigan's best athlete on the floor with his length and explosiveness. And the final piece is Mitch McGary, the once #2 rated prospect in the country who has fallen off a bit after his senior year wasn't as good as his AAU season. I'm not sure if McGary can play the 4 in Beilein's offense so he will probably battle for minutes with Morgan and Horford at the 5 and get some minutes at the 4 as well. I expect Trey Robinson to start the 4 from day 1 when he steps on campus. He'll be battling against redshirt freshman Max Beifeldt and his buddy McGary for that spot.
There is one question that still remains and that is Trey Burke, will he stay or will he go? I think it would be another poor decision by a Michigan athlete if he leaves, but after Manny and Darius the last two seasons I have given up trying to predict young men's decisions based on logic. He'll do what he wants and Michigan will adjust. If he returns, Michigan is probably a top ten team. If he leaves...Michigan will struggle to make the NCAA tournament with no ball handler on the roster.
Here's an early look at how I think Michigan's rotation shakes out (assuming Burke returns)
PG: Burke (35 minutes) Akunne (5)
SG: Nik Stauskas (25) Matt Vogrich (10) Tim Hardaway Jr (5)
SF: Hardaway (25) Glenn Robinson Jr (10) Vogrich (5)
PF: Robinson (20) Beifeldt (15) McGary (5)
C: Morgan (15) McGary (15) Horford (10)
I think a starting lineup of Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Robinson and Morgan gives Michigan the best blend of experience, athleticism and shooting ability. I'm excited about the development of Horford and Beifeldt and can't wait to see what they can do this season. McGary is an X-factor and if JB feels he can play the 4, you could see Stauskas move to the bench with Hardaway and Burke in the backcourt and Robinson at the 3. The most striking thing about next year's lineup is that no matter how you look at it Michigan is all of a sudden, big, long and athletic. No longer will Michigan enter a game as an athletic mismatch who will have to out-shoot it's opponents to win. They will be able to beat lesser teams by overpowering them with athleticism.
That green team
Draymond Green's amazing run at Michigan State ended with a loss in the sweet 16. For MSU, expectations are great and result in feeling disappointed at the end to a great season. I think Spartan fans should look on this season with great appreciation for what their team accomplished after such a difficult 2011.
Michigan State is going to be a top 10 team in 2013 and I am curious to see how minutes shake out in the backcourt. Gary Harris is too good to keep off the floor, so Appling is probably going to have to play a lot at the point again next season. I think MSU should really look to push the ball next season when Dawson returns and Harris joins the fold. I'm not sure if MSU will be as good as they were this year but they have the potential to be extremely fun to watch.
The B1G is going to be scary good again next year...
Take a look at this
way-too-early ranking of NCAA basketball teams for 2013. If you don't want to look, Andy Katz and company have Indiana #1, OSU #5, MSU #7 and Michigan #8. 4 of the top 8? IU as the #1 overall team? And I thought the Big Ten was a brutally tough conference to win in this season...