A lot has happened since mine and Pat's last post, obviously I wont even attempt to recap that all here. However, I will mention one commit. Shane Jones, an OLB out of Cincinnati Moeller High School. Shane is listed at 6-1 215 pounds. Scout has him as a 3 star, Rivals as a 4 star and ESPN has him unranked. Something to note are the offers. Arizona, BC, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma and Michigan. That's a pretty hefty list which hints that this kid has talent. What is most important is that MSU seems to be developing a bit of a pipeline out of Moeller, I will take that all day.
Here is an update on Burbridge from Chris Solari of the Lansing State Journal -Hey Joe! "Top MSU 2012 recruit Aaron Burbridge continues to work toward qualifying academically -- and no matter what rumor you hear between now and then, that won't be determined until he's done with summer school. Burbridge is doing very well so far this semester, Farmington Hills Harrison coach John Herrington said Thursday.
Interesting. Especially if he really has the talent to play right away. One thing to note out of the MSU spring game draft is that Andre Sims Jr. was the first WR taken, followed by converted cornerback and running back Jeremy Langford, third was DeAnthony Arnett. I understand one reason Arnett was deafted third is that he is still learning the offense. Sims Jr being drafted first speaks a lot to his speed and play making ability, I think Langford is in that same boat. Both are burners and Langford has a little more size than Sims Jr. Double interesting. NOTE: The MSU spring game is tomorrow, Saturday on the BTN.
Tomorrow night, look for me to try to make sense of the NCAA college football playoff here on On Rivalries.
Go Green!
Watching the MSU Spring game. It's early in the 3rd quarter and the score is 7-2. Defense is mostly dominating, which is to be expected given the experience they have on defense and the fact we are playing primarily a RS freshman and two walk ons at qb. Gholston blew up a running play in the end zone for a safety. If he can be consistent he's a first round NFL pick next year in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteAlso Taiwan Jones just completely blew up Nick Hill, then recovered a fumble in a 3 play stretch. He's probably not a starter on this defense. Which is sick.
This brings me to my response to this idea that Michigan's recruiting success means certain ruin for MSU.
I agree recruiting is very important. But I think recruiting rankings are a really dumb way to determine recruiting results. Unfortunately, the only way to measure them is to wait to see what players look like when they get on campus. This isn't much fun for bloggers and fans who want to dissect what their team is doing, when their team isn't really doing much.
I find it strange that UM fans are acting like Hoke and Mattison are lifting the program out of the dredges of the recruiting rankings. Rich Rod probably "out recruited" Dantonio every year.
Here's what MGoBlog had to say in February of 2008:
"This is what you need to know about Michigan State's class: its second-best guy would be Michigan's 18th, and this year is the first time in 40 years Michigan changed coaches. Meet the new boss, little brother."
Full Link:
http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2008/02/sparty-no.html
So, uh, how did that statement turn out? Nobody in that class ever lost to Michigan. Jerel Worthy, Keyshaun Martin, and Trenton Robinson just got their names called in the NFL draft. Johnny Adams got redshirted a year and will likely get drafted next year. But truthfully, a lot of other guys in that class turned out to be busts. It really was Dantonio's worst class, and yet look at the results.
There's an implication that you can't count on player development to make up for "weak" recruiting. I think we are rapidly approaching a point where you have to start saying that Dantonio and his staff are simply better at evaluating high school talent than recruiting services. LeVeon Bell was a 2 star. He played and was effective as a true freshman, that's not just player development that was good scouting. He showed up better than anyone expected. Jerel Worthy redshirted one year, and then was a freshman All American, hardly a case where the coaches toiled for years to scrape every last bit of potential out of him. He was just better than he got credit for in High school.
The 09 and 10 classes were much better than that 08 class, especially on defense. And you can see that in the results on the field. But it still wasn't loaded with 5 stars. Denicos Allen was a mid level 3 star. I'd wager he's a starter at outside linebacker anywhere in the B1G. Darquez Dennard was a 2 star recruit and was listed on some 2nd team all-conference teams last year as a first year starter. At this point it's not a fluke. It's either better scouting, better development, or more likely a combination of both. But Dantonio has been here 5 years now, and he's got a track record of this.
That said, yes, you always want to recruit better. But at this point I'm giving Dantonio the benefit of the doubt. He will bring in players that can play to begin with. And he will make them better. And while I happen to agree that Hoke looks like he is putting Michigan on a path to success it I do not think it means MSU has to fall back. I expect them to be competing for division titles, making that game both a rivalry game and one that has title implications on pretty much a yearly basis.
I'm excited about it. At some point UM will win again in this rivalry. It very well could be this year. But it will not return to the way it was during the Bobby Smith/ John L eras. Dantonio is far too good a coach for that.
Good stuff here Ken.
DeleteMichigan's 2008 class had 9 guys transfer within their first two seasons at the school. Attrition was RR's biggest issue but his recruiting was also nowhere near the level that Hoke is achieving with his first two full classes. Hoke will need to keep these guys and develop them but it's always good to start with higher level talents.
Dantonio has been able to find elite talents like Worthy and Bell who were under the radar as far as recruiting rankings but he also benefited from RR focusing less on Michigan and Ohio and more on Florida.
One thing to say for recruiting rankings...look at William Gholston, he was Dantonio's highest rated recruit and he's turned into an elite level talent.
That's a good point on Gholston, and like I said I'm not going to argue that recruiting great talent isn't critical. I just frankly think that in football recruiting the "recruiting rankings" are guidelines at best.
DeleteJoe Rexrode always writes that he follows basketball recruiting because he thinks it is much more reliable. In basketball the biggest barometer for guys isn't their high school games, it's what they do in AAU ball all summer long. That's when the guys who are likely college bound players play against other guys of similar talent levels.
In High School football you might have a handful of programs that turn out several D1 level players each year, but most have very few. So most of the evaluation is done on guys playing against people who are not the same level of athlete as the prospect. It's much more of a crapshoot.
But I won't say they have no value. I think they give you a general sense of a guys potential. But even the services are really hedging their bets these days in that they have shrunk the margin of difference of what they say about kids.
Take MSU's 2011 class. Their consensus top recruit was Lawrence Thomas, a 4 star LB who reportedly had offers from UM, OSU, Alabama, Florida and USC.
MSU fans were justifiably pumped to see him on campus. Unfortunately he has dealt with some injuries so we haven't really seen him at his full potential.
But even before he got hurt it became clear to MSU fans he might not be the best defensive prospect in the class. From the moment the class started practicing Dantonio was RAVING about another LB, Taiwan Jones. Who was relatively lightly recruited with offers from only Indiana in the B1G and the CMU, Eastern, and Toledo. But according to the ESPN ratings Thomas was and 80 and Jones was a 78. But that got Thomas a 4th star. Now the much, much better offer sheet has a lot to do with that too, but I'm just saying whatever scouts were evaluating these guys didn't see a HUGE difference, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise when Jones turns out to be the only guy from our 2011 class not to take a redshirt.
This is a very long way of saying that I don't think therecruiting ratings as anything more than a guideline. MSU's classes have been full of guys like Taiwan Jones who are upper level 3 star recruits. The class rankings don't really reward Dantonio for bringing in guys like that, but his results have been pretty good. Not saying he is some genius at recognizing and developing talent. I just think it is entirely possible that he is marginally better at one or both of those things and that margin can mean having 3 star guys turn out to be much better than people expect.
I haven't followed recruiting long enough to know but I think Dantonio has recruited decently the last few seasons in comparison to MSU recruiting in the past.
DeleteHis first few classes he recruited for depth but he has also sprinkled in some high level talents the last few years.
Your point about recruiting rankings being an inexact science (at best) is valid. But there is analysis upon analysis out there that recruiting rankings do matter. In the aggregate there is a proven correlation between how the recruiting services rank guys and their performance.
Yea I don't deny that. I just don't think they are so reliable that it is implausible for a coach to consistently bring in guys that outperform their expected production based on the evaluation of the recruiting services.
DeleteI pretty much agree with both of you. While I think that dantonio is great at development and searching out the right players or the diamonds in the rough. he also isnt landing a lot of the sharks. clearly brady hoke can do that. i dont know if thats a program prestige thing or an inability to close. but if dantonio can do this (win) with high three stars and the occasional stud, imagine what he could do with a top 10 recruiting class.
ReplyDeleteand no, i do not think that the b1g will ever be the big two again. it will likely end up being the most competitive conference on the top end in America with the emergence of Wisconsin and MSU. the resurgence (last year) of um and we will see that happens at osu (pre season #20) and psu (has anyone seen psu's current class? quietly very good)