For Michigan, a first round exit from the tournament was a disappointment but you hang the banner for the Big Ten championship and look back on this season as the one where Michigan's basketball program established itself as a regular contender. Michigan's program has not been in a place where any reasonable fan can be disappointed with a Big Ten championship and a first round NCAA tournament exit. But now, maybe the program has reached that level. It has been significant, what these guys have done. The banner goes up and the future looks brighter than ever.
Here's where I give thanks to Zack and Stu, one unranked out of high school, the other a two star. Three NCAA tournament appearances and a Big Ten championship during their four seasons at Michigan. A great run by any measure.
I remember reading countless message board posts about 15 months ago (Michigan was off to a horrendous start to Big Ten play during the 2011 season) suggesting different names for who should be Michigan's next basketball coach. One and a half seasons later and the program is in a better spot than it's been in two decades. Amazing how fast things can change. I'd wager that Beilein's approval rating would be rather high right now. (Insert Derrick Nix joke here?)
The future is bright, but it also contains some great questions and concerns. Immediately following the loss to the Bobcats, Michigan lost three players to transfer. The loss of Evan Smotcryz is a significant one as his ability to stretch the floor and shoot from distance as a PF was a key ingredient in JB's offense the past couple of season. Evan was a player who could wow you with his potential but never seemed to put it together on both ends of the floor. He was always a liability defensively. Still, his loss, along with the departures of Novak and Douglass will be felt next season. Luckily Michigan has it's best recruiting class in over a decade to help restock the roster with talent.
Speaking of that recruiting class. I really like all three players. I think Nik Stauskas could surprise as a JJ Redick clone. He may finally be the heralded three point shooter who simply doesn't miss if he's open. Big Dog Jr will probably come in and be the biggest contributor from day 1. He will immediately be Michigan's best athlete on the floor with his length and explosiveness. And the final piece is Mitch McGary, the once #2 rated prospect in the country who has fallen off a bit after his senior year wasn't as good as his AAU season. I'm not sure if McGary can play the 4 in Beilein's offense so he will probably battle for minutes with Morgan and Horford at the 5 and get some minutes at the 4 as well. I expect Trey Robinson to start the 4 from day 1 when he steps on campus. He'll be battling against redshirt freshman Max Beifeldt and his buddy McGary for that spot.
There is one question that still remains and that is Trey Burke, will he stay or will he go? I think it would be another poor decision by a Michigan athlete if he leaves, but after Manny and Darius the last two seasons I have given up trying to predict young men's decisions based on logic. He'll do what he wants and Michigan will adjust. If he returns, Michigan is probably a top ten team. If he leaves...Michigan will struggle to make the NCAA tournament with no ball handler on the roster.
Here's an early look at how I think Michigan's rotation shakes out (assuming Burke returns)
PG: Burke (35 minutes) Akunne (5)
SG: Nik Stauskas (25) Matt Vogrich (10) Tim Hardaway Jr (5)
SF: Hardaway (25) Glenn Robinson Jr (10) Vogrich (5)
PF: Robinson (20) Beifeldt (15) McGary (5)
C: Morgan (15) McGary (15) Horford (10)
I think a starting lineup of Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Robinson and Morgan gives Michigan the best blend of experience, athleticism and shooting ability. I'm excited about the development of Horford and Beifeldt and can't wait to see what they can do this season. McGary is an X-factor and if JB feels he can play the 4, you could see Stauskas move to the bench with Hardaway and Burke in the backcourt and Robinson at the 3. The most striking thing about next year's lineup is that no matter how you look at it Michigan is all of a sudden, big, long and athletic. No longer will Michigan enter a game as an athletic mismatch who will have to out-shoot it's opponents to win. They will be able to beat lesser teams by overpowering them with athleticism.
That green team
Draymond Green's amazing run at Michigan State ended with a loss in the sweet 16. For MSU, expectations are great and result in feeling disappointed at the end to a great season. I think Spartan fans should look on this season with great appreciation for what their team accomplished after such a difficult 2011.
Michigan State is going to be a top 10 team in 2013 and I am curious to see how minutes shake out in the backcourt. Gary Harris is too good to keep off the floor, so Appling is probably going to have to play a lot at the point again next season. I think MSU should really look to push the ball next season when Dawson returns and Harris joins the fold. I'm not sure if MSU will be as good as they were this year but they have the potential to be extremely fun to watch.
The B1G is going to be scary good again next year...
Take a look at this way-too-early ranking of NCAA basketball teams for 2013. If you don't want to look, Andy Katz and company have Indiana #1, OSU #5, MSU #7 and Michigan #8. 4 of the top 8? IU as the #1 overall team? And I thought the Big Ten was a brutally tough conference to win in this season...
Pat returns. I updated your post with labels. also, great rundown. I could not agree more. I think UM is second best team next year if burke returns, but drops significantly without him. Is zeller staying? He must be, way too skinny to be a pro.
ReplyDeleteSo many questions for both teams. Especially in light of Nix's arrest for MSU.
ReplyDeleteAll starts with Burke for UM obviously. If he leaves Michigan could fall to middle of the pack in the conference. I mentioned this to Pat today but I think Novak could be a bigger loss than people realize. He hit a bunch of big shots, made plays for teammates and was a versatile and somewhat underrated defender. UM has Good players coming in, just hard to know for sure how freshman will play and how they will all mesh. So much of the offense relies on Burke that if he is back UM will be dangerous again.
Obviously MSU is going to miss Green in a big way. Really hard to predict what happens without him considering how much of the offense depended on him. He was also our best defensive rebounder. Appling looked great early in the conference season against Indiana and Wisconsin. He was the best player on the court in those early games. After that he was up and down. If he can get his jump shot back on track I think he can be very effective. I think Trice will see more time at the point allowing Appling to play off the ball a little more. But he is still gonna have to progress as PG. I love the talent coming. Gary Harris should have an impact as a freshman.
To me the key is Dawson's health and how much work he can put in on his jump shot. They are going to need him to fill a lot of Green's role as a rebounder at the 3 and 4 spot. Especially if Nix gets booted, Payne will have to play a lot at the 5 and Dawson will have to play big.
You think Nix would get booted for weed? I didn't really look into the situation but he wasn't dealing or anything, right? Give him some community service, that's more than most citizens get for smoking drugs.
ReplyDeleteWhat was up with the transfers?
ReplyDeleteI love the idea of playing Slighty Smaller Dog at the three, I love when college teams go big. Especially if Burke leaves (which would be stupid (though I support his right to do it.))(Seriously, what's his role in the NBA? Very poor man's Tyreke Evans? Backup to Will Bynum?)
Also, Hardaway has to stop killing them by jacking ill-advised threes (any threes that leave his hands.) He should penetrate and dish every time he gets the ball.
The transfers:
ReplyDeleteColton Christian - Played like 20 minutes total the entire year as a backup 4 and 5, two positions where Michigan brings in guys who will immediately be ahead of him on the depth chart. He simply wouldn't have seen the floor during his Michigan career had he stayed.
Carlton Brundidge - He was behind Eso Akunne (walk-on) the whole season and the Akunne got hurt and he still never played. He's an undersized SG who didn't appear to have the ballhandling skills to be a PG in college basketball. I think he can catch on somewhere and be a good spark plug scorer off the bench because he can get to the rim. His transfer makes less sense if Burke leaves because he would have gotten minutes by default in that scenario.
Evan Smots - JB was harder on Evan than any other guy on the team. Evan always looked frustrated and he was always frustrating JB. I think in Evan's case he thinks he's the best player on the team when really he's very bad defensively. This transfer will hurt, no doubt. Wish the kid the best of luck he can really score the basketball.
And a note on Hardaway...it's amazing that he can get to the rim at all. His freshman year he was only a jumpshooter. His usage went way up this season and with that his effectiveness went down. I think he'll bounce back next year.