A Wolverine Predicts Michigan State's Season

Tbone is off on vacation but we will be sure to finish up our position comparison before the season kicks off next week.  In the meantime, I'm going to take a stab at looking at the schedule and giving Spartan fans a rundown of how I think the season will play out for MSU.  While I'm sure this won't be very informative it may be a little bit of fun.

Michigan State Schedule 2012

Boise State

One of the marquee matchups kicking off college football should be a thrilling atmosphere under the lights in East Lansing.  I don't generally like college football to played on Friday nights (because fans should go out and watch high school games) but this is a very exciting matchup.

Boise loses so much that it's difficult to predict an upset victory in this game.  It will be interesting to see if MSU is capable of downfield passing against a Boise St defense that is replacing a ton.  I expect MSU to win this game with defense and their running game.  Maxwell has limited attempts but is efficient.

24-14


At Central Michigan

While I find it humurous and cute that MSU is going to play @CMU this year, no matter how fired up the Chips are they aren't winning this game.  These contests have sometimes gone Central's way in the past but MSU is just too tough this season.

41-10


Vs Notre Dame

The first of two revenge games for MSU in 2012.  Who knows what to make of Notre Dame, they have a difficult schedule, some talent on their roster and a coach who loves to scream at everyone.  I actually think they may be pretty good this season as Kelly finally will be developing his guys and his team.  Still, with this game being in East Lansing the edge here has to go to MSU.  I expect a close and hard fought game with Michigan State pulling the game out in the last 4 minutes with a key defensive play (sack, interception or fumble recovery).

24 - 23


Vs Eastern Michigan

Move along, nothing to see here.

50-6


Vs Ohio State

It doesn't get much uglier than Spartan vs Buckeye, ever, but especially last season when the two played in one of the worst offensive games I've ever witnessed.  I think Urban Meyer treats this as a big statement game and Ohio State comes in for a little revenge against the Spartans.  This will be another low scoring, defensive battle.

10 - 17


At Indiana

Playing in Bloomington still doesn't give the Hoosiers a prayer in this game.  They may keep it interesting for a quarter.


38-12


Vs Iowa

I expect the Hawkeyes to have a good offense and a bad defense this season.  Michigan State will gash Iowa's poor defensive line for over 5 yards per carry and roll to a comfortable victory by playing ball control.

28-20


At Michigan

You had to expect this pick from me, but the four year streak ends this season in Ann Arbor.  A senior Denard and the Wolverines hosting in the Big House are the difference in a game in which Gholston and Lewan have an epic, clean battle. Michigan kicks a couple field goals in the 4th to clinch the victory.

21-27


At Wisconsin

This is as hard a stretch of games as anyone has in the conference this season.   The hangover from the loss to Michigan and playing a rowdy atmosphere in Camp Randall results in the only lopsided defeat the Spartans suffer all season.

10-31


Vs Nebraska

Another revenge game for the Spartans.  Nebraska will have a good shot at the Legends race and Michigan State will absolutely need this victory to keep their hopes of making it to Indy alive.  This game will come down to late in the 4th and MSU will have just enough left in the tank to pull out the victory with a little help from the home crowd.

24-20


Vs Northwestern

This is a dangerous game because it comes on the heels of such a difficult three game stretch and that in itself will give the Wildcats some life in this game.  Still, Michigan State is more talented across the board than Northwestern.  Another comfortable win for the Spartans.

35-17


At Minnesota

Minnesota isn't going to go from awful to great overnight, but they will be an improved squad.  Bowl eligibility could be on the line here for the Gophers and playing their final game of the season at home could make for an interesting atmosphere.  Minnesota gave MSU some problems in East Lansing last season and the Spartans will be prepared and give a better effort in this one.

38-14


The Season

I have the Spartans at 9-3 with losses to OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The schedule breaks pretty evenly into a few categories:

Sure Wins: 3 (@CMU, EMU, @IU)
Probable Wins: 3 (Iowa, Northwestern, @Minnesota)
Toss Ups: (Boise St, Notre Dame, OSU, @Michigan, @Wisconsin, Nebraska)

MSU will sweep those first 6 games so I think their floor this season is 6-6 if everything goes wrong or there are major injury issues (for example Maxwell goes out for the year)

It helps a ton to have only 2/6 toss up games on the road though I believe those are the two toughest teams MSU will face this season. (Those two finished highest in last season's rankings as well)  Still, I have these as toss ups and project MSU to go 3-3 in this stretch of games.  I wouldn't be surprised by 4-2 and I would be slightly more surprised by 2-4, which means IMO 10-2 is more likely than 8-4.

OK Spartan fans, let me know where I'm wrong.