Sunday, August 19, 2012

WR/TE

(the michigan portion was written by pat, posted by tbone)

Yikes.  Wide receivers and tight ends are probably the least proven of all offensive position groups for the Wolverines heading into 2012.

First the TE's.

Michigan loses Kevin Koger to graduation.  Koger played seemingly all the offensive snaps at TE last season and with his departure Michigan their one proven player at the position.  When Michigan went to two TE sets last year they turned to Steve Watson, who also departs.  Watson didn't do much to draw praise or ire, so it's safe to say he was average. 

Taking over for Koger and Watson is senior Brandon Moore.  Moore has physical ability but his lack of snaps indicate he has yet to put things together.  He's likely to be the main TE in running situations.  If he can play at an average level that will be a win for the Wolverines.

Backing up Moore is a bunch of bodies with no proven commodities.  Walk-on Mike Kwiatkowski is likely the next guy in line.  Walk-ons in the lineup always give you pause but TE is a position where walk-ons have had success at many programs.  Beyond these two there are two freshman; Devin Funchess is a tweener and may well be a WR this season but he is well regarded.  He could potentially earn snaps in passing situations.  AJ Williams is another tweener but he is more of an offensive tackle than a TE.  If he sees the field it will certainly be as a road grading run blocker.

Other bodies here are sophomores Ricardo Miller and Jordan Paskorz.  Both will have opportunity to prove themselves and earn playing time.

Success of this unit depends largely on Moore and whether or not he can be a Michigan caliber starter in his senior year.  This will not be the strength of the team but TE is a position that can be schemed for or around, depending on your talent.

Wide receiver on the other hand is important in any offense in college football.  Michigan loses it's best playmaker on the outside in Junior Hemingway.  He was Denard's safety valve all season and continually went up and won jump balls. Martavious Odoms was also lost to graduation.  Odoms made some big plays (especially in the OSU game) and will be missed as a leader and a guy with tons of experience.

Michigan was dealt another blow when Daryl Stonum was dismissed from the team in the offseason after serving a one year suspension last season.  Stonum would have been a clear #1 guy for Michigan.

Yet another setback occurred when Roy Roundtree had arthroscopic knee surgery last week.  Roy is expected back within a couple of weeks and should be ready to play for Alabama but may not be effective the first few weeks of the season.

Michigan will look for Roundtree or Jeremy Gallon to step up and become a #1 receiver this season.  Gallon is a mighty mite but has great leaping ability and is exceptionally quick.  I'm higher on Gallon than most and believe he will be Michigan's top target this season and a playmaker as well.  Drew Dileo is another returning player who has seen action and made big catches.  Dileo is a less experienced and less explosive version of Gallon.  He will be a productive slot receiver this season.

Devin Gardner is an unknown but has been taking snaps at WR.  He's tall and fast and has been impressive by all accounts. It will be interesting to see how much he actually plays at WR.  He's probably Michigan's 2nd best athlete after Denard on the entire team.   He could be a redzone demon or barely see the field as a WR, it's really anyone's guess at this point.

Beyond those two things get dicey.  Jeremy Jackson is now an upperclassmen and has playing experience but he is justifiably put into the dreaded "possession receiver" category.  He is steady but does not have the athleticism to get open consistently.  Jerald Robinson has the athleticism and size and now is his time to show what he can do.  Robinson will have plenty of opportunity to shine on the outside for Michigan.  Both incoming freshman could also contribute.  They are big (something Michigan's upperclassman can't boast) and they are also fast.  Amara Darboh is my choice between the two if you are looking for one to earn early playing time.

While Michigan has some issues at WR for 2012 I'm not sure I would trade their starting unit for any others in the Big Ten.  This year is not the year of the WR in the conference.  I expect one of Michigan's receivers to be on the All-B1G team at the end of the season and think this unit will solid but lacking a true #1 deep threat throughout the season.

If you look at TE and WR as one unit together, I would say Michigan has a blend of talent, experience and giant question marks.   This is a high variance group that could be a disaster if they can't work out something at TE or could be a very big advantage if things take shape.  It will be interesting to see how this one plays out for the Wolverines.

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The Spartan Tight End group is about as thin as they come. MSU lost Garet Celek and Brian Linthicim to graduation. Starting is well known player Dion Sims.  Sims is a fourth year Junior who red shirted 2010 due to legal issues.  Sims showed a lot of promise as a freshman and played most of last year with a broken hand, thus limiting his production.  He has been named to the Mackey award watch list and is appearing on severeal pre-season All B1G lists.  In Sims, new QB Maxwell should find a security blanket. Here is a big target with proven hands.  In the redzone Sims will feast, an all B1G selection figures to be a lock.  Outside of Sims, there is not a lot of proven talent.  MSU has a converted defensive end in Denzel Drone, though lately he was been practicing on defense thanks to the emergence of Andrew Gleichert and Derek Hoebing.

Wide receiver is pretty much the opposite problem as tight end, where there is limited experience across the board but also a lot of potential starters.  For me the starters will be Bennie Fowler and DeAnthony Arnett, at least once the season gets going.  But for now, that Arnett spot is held by Tony Lippett.  Tony played last year as a corner back and was more than serviceable.  His athleticism is his largest attribute.  If Tony gained some muscle in the off season, he could be a huge surprise for the offense.  Fowler is a name that has been around the Spartan team for a while.  As a redshirt freshman, Fowler made an impact both in receiveing and returning.  Since then, Fowler has been trying to heal a foot injury.  His health will decide how this receving crew will end up.  Talented, great hands, good size, MSU needs Fowler.

From there MSU has a lot of unproven talent.  All of these guys are athletes, Keith Mumphrey, Andre Sims Jr, the tallest one, Juwan Caesar.  However, the name that keeps coming up is Tres Barksdale.  Tres is a walk on to the team and has been impressive.  In the first scrimmage, Tres hauled in a 37 yard TD against our backup defense.  You can look at that either way, but I will take the positive in Tres.  MSU has had some success with walk on wide receivers, think Blaire White.  Finally, Aaron Burbridge will miss 6 weeks with a knee injury.  Having recently had arthroscopic surgery, you return pretty quickly, just don't push it.  Thankfully he will be under the watchful eye of the MSU medical staff.  This is pretty sad after everything Aaron did to get his grades in line.  With all that time missed during practice I would be shocked if he did not redshirt.  That would actually be a blessing for MSU.  Move some of that talent back a year, let him practice all this season, keep his grades up, could be a real positive for MSU.  (I have left off DeAnthony Arnett because so much has been written on him already.)

It will be interesting to see how the offense lines up.  Do they want some of our burners our there in Mumphery and Sims Jr? Will they use a taller receiver with one of the speedsters?  What about lots of 3 and 4 wide?  I expect a lot of three wide with Sims acting as a 4th receiver while lined up on the line.  If Sims is out, you can probably expect a run the majority of the time.

With that, MSU has a good problem at wide receiver with all the talent.  The problem is that they are unproven.  The most seasoned player, Arnett, was a freshman last year at Tennessee, and is currently behind other players with knowledge and reps in the system. 

So how do these groups stack up against eachother?

In my opinion, I think MSU has more talent as a wide receiving core and is better at tight end with Dion Sims (as a pass catcher).  However, the lack of game time experience for the MSU wide receivers makes this position group too close.

EDGE: Push.

8 comments:

  1. Roundtree vs Fowler: Advantage Roundtree
    Gallon vs. Lippett : Advantage Gallon
    Darboh vs. Arnett: Advantage Arnett
    Moore vs. Sims: Advantage Sims

    I'd take having a better top 2 recievers, than third reciever and TE.

    Slight advantage Michigan

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    1. I cant say I disagree. This is probably the closest position group between the two programs.

      Arnett very well could be our #2 and I would take him over Gallon.

      Close group between the two schools.

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    2. I think Gallon is the best receiver on either team...

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  2. Also, just for some reference,

    Arnett in 2011: 24 catches for 242 yards

    Gallon 2011: 31 for 453 yards

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    Replies
    1. ESPN B1G blog does rank our WR/TE the 11th best. And Michigans the 6th best. I like our potential a lot. Hopefully its there as the season rolls on.

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  3. Hmm I think the comments have kind of outlined my view of this position group. Some thoughts. These aren't going to be very well organized by the way.

    Slight edge to UM's wideouts. Neither team is exactly returning a crop of proven playmakers. Especially with Roundtree's injury. I understand his surgery was reportedly minor, but it's still a problem for him to be missing time.

    I'm obviously biased, but by most accounts Dantonio has done a really good job recruiting wideouts the last few years. I think Pat even acknowledged this. We're about to see how well that has turned out.

    So UM has a little edge at WR. I think MSU has a slight edge at TE. Though I still think Sims is far from a proven commodity. He has made some big plays, but needs to stay healthy. Health is a big key for both teams at TE.

    I sort of expect the passing game to be a work in progress early in the season. Hopefully it comes together. But I am also really concerned about the impact on the running game the loss of Cunningham and Nichol might have. Those guys were above average blockers in my opinion.

    One of the The Only Colors writers does a series breaking down plays that MSU runs frequently (really good one up on the Double A Gap blitz right now). He did one earlier on the toss sweep and in most the times they ran it either Nichol or Cunningham were critical at helping the back get the edge, either by occupying their corner, or downblocking on linebackers trying to flow to the ball. That might be an underapreciated area we will miss them.

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  4. Projecting MSU's receivers this year is really difficult since they literally have no experience. Their most proven guy was a Volunteer last season...they certainly could be good and have lots of talent (though I was highest on Burbridge of all their players there) but they could also have major issues without a go-to guy.

    Cunningham was maybe the best receiver in MSU history. (doesn't he hold all the records?) Nichol is replaceable and I'm sure they will attempt to develop someone into their Tedd Ginn Jr/Keyshawn Martin play-maker role.

    Anyway, with all those questions here I think the edge is clearly to Michigan and it's more than slight one. TE is a slight edge to MSU, though Sims has yet to really produce anything (he's sorta the Will Campbell equivalent on MSU's team, lots of hype but not much production). Overall that means a solid edge to Michigan in our first offensive positional breakdown. I have a feeling more groups are going to go to Michigan as we move on...



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  5. I'm willing to concede an edge to UM here I guess. They have some talent and experience. But it's not like UM has a clear number 1, a Braylon Edwards level talent that makes defenses afraid. It's a solid recieving corps that is definitely more proven than MSU's. But I don't see a reason MSU can't get to solid status with their group of guys.

    Also, having guys break out at wideout is hardly unprecedented. Devin Thomas as a Junior had 79 receptions for over 1200 yards and became a second round draft pick. The year before... 6 catches for 90 yards. Not saying there is another player of that caliber lurking for MSU, but it's possible. I admit this also applies to UM having breakout potential.

    I guess all I am saying is that wideout might be the position where past performance and experience matter the least.

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