First, let's look at remaining schedules for the contenders (I'm going to omit Northwestern and Minnesota but include the remaining teams)
Also, I'm going to list the games in order of perceived difficulty rather than simply how they fall on the calendar.
MSU
@NEB
@Iowa
@NW
Indiana
Minnesota
This appears to be the most manageable of the schedules below. MSU benefits from their last 3 wins which was a very difficult stretch. Obviously there are two sure wins there with home games against IU and Minny but the other three road games are potentially dangerous for the Spartans. This weekends game at Nebraska is by far the stiffest test remaining.
Michigan
OSU
NEB
@Iowa
@Illinois
Purdue
The Wolverine's loss to the Spartans was the first stiff test since Michigan escaped with a win against Notre Dame. The 2nd half of the schedule is much more difficult than the first half, but also brings some home cookin' against the toughest teams remaining. 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome in this stretch, but 4-1 is reasonably possible with 2-3 also possible.
Nebraska
MSU
@PSU
@Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Even after their loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska controls it's own destiny in the Legends division. They have a very difficult remaining schedule as their date in Happy Valley looks more daunting by the week. A win over MSU this week and Nebraska suddenly vaults themselves into pole position within the division.
Iowa
@NEB
MSU
Michigan
@Purdue
@Minnesota
Yet another team that controls it's own destiny. Iowa gets Michigan and Michigan State at home, will win @Minnesota and then has two tough road games @Nebraska and @Purdue. It's hard to see the Hawkeyes going 5-0 in this stretch but the Hawkeyes always seem to improve as the season goes on and will be a tough out in every game. I'd wager a bet that Iowa will have some say in the league champion but that will likely be in a spoiler role.
I'm trying to rehash this from memory, but I believe the format for division winners looks something like this:
1. Conference Record
2. Head-to-Head
3. Division Record
I could be totally wrong about that...but if I'm not, it further cements MSU's spot in the driver's seat, as they have an unblemished record within the division and hold a tie breaker over Michigan in the head to head match-up.
There are certainly a lot of possibilities left out there. Michigan would need 2 MSU losses to get back into consideration whereas Nebraska and Iowa control their own destiny.
With the eyeball test of how teams have performed thus far along with a breakdown of the schedules, I think you would handicap the division race as:
Favorite: MSU
Next: Nebraska
3rd: Michigan
4th: Iowa
