First, let's look at remaining schedules for the contenders (I'm going to omit Northwestern and Minnesota but include the remaining teams)
Also, I'm going to list the games in order of perceived difficulty rather than simply how they fall on the calendar.
MSU
@NEB
@Iowa
@NW
Indiana
Minnesota
This appears to be the most manageable of the schedules below. MSU benefits from their last 3 wins which was a very difficult stretch. Obviously there are two sure wins there with home games against IU and Minny but the other three road games are potentially dangerous for the Spartans. This weekends game at Nebraska is by far the stiffest test remaining.
Michigan
OSU
NEB
@Iowa
@Illinois
Purdue
The Wolverine's loss to the Spartans was the first stiff test since Michigan escaped with a win against Notre Dame. The 2nd half of the schedule is much more difficult than the first half, but also brings some home cookin' against the toughest teams remaining. 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome in this stretch, but 4-1 is reasonably possible with 2-3 also possible.
Nebraska
MSU
@PSU
@Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Even after their loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska controls it's own destiny in the Legends division. They have a very difficult remaining schedule as their date in Happy Valley looks more daunting by the week. A win over MSU this week and Nebraska suddenly vaults themselves into pole position within the division.
Iowa
@NEB
MSU
Michigan
@Purdue
@Minnesota
Yet another team that controls it's own destiny. Iowa gets Michigan and Michigan State at home, will win @Minnesota and then has two tough road games @Nebraska and @Purdue. It's hard to see the Hawkeyes going 5-0 in this stretch but the Hawkeyes always seem to improve as the season goes on and will be a tough out in every game. I'd wager a bet that Iowa will have some say in the league champion but that will likely be in a spoiler role.
I'm trying to rehash this from memory, but I believe the format for division winners looks something like this:
1. Conference Record
2. Head-to-Head
3. Division Record
I could be totally wrong about that...but if I'm not, it further cements MSU's spot in the driver's seat, as they have an unblemished record within the division and hold a tie breaker over Michigan in the head to head match-up.
There are certainly a lot of possibilities left out there. Michigan would need 2 MSU losses to get back into consideration whereas Nebraska and Iowa control their own destiny.
With the eyeball test of how teams have performed thus far along with a breakdown of the schedules, I think you would handicap the division race as:
Favorite: MSU
Next: Nebraska
3rd: Michigan
4th: Iowa
Also: Alexis I'm sure would want to discuss it but I find it interesting that most are still pegging Wisconsin into the championship game. I know they get PSU at home but they have to travel to Columbus. I think Penn State is better than they've gotten credit for throughout the season. They clearly are not elite at QB, but they might be the best team in the league anyway.
ReplyDeletepat is back with a vengeance. excellent writeup. that psu Wisconsin game is HUGE.
ReplyDeleteI can see Wisconsin having another let down in Columbus this week.
I know that if there is a two way tie within the division, the head to head results are the tie breaker.
Somehow PSU is pounding out ugly wins. But hey, I'll take it! I never thought after the first few games they would be sitting at 7-1. It looks like they have figured out the QB situation as Bolden did not play during the Northwestern game. I wish they had a better answer at QB but they gave Bolden every chance to perform and he just fell flat.
ReplyDeleteI like that PSU is flying under the radar. They have a tough schedule with their last 3 games vs Nebraska, at Ohio State and finishing the season at Wisconsin but if McGloin can keep making good decisions and the D keeps playing tough, they could end up in Indy. MSU-PSU on December 3rd? Could get ugly tbone!
I think Penn State is as good defensively as MSU and OSU. Offensively, they can run the football even though the passing threat is lacking. McGloin as the starter just tears down the perception of how good of a team PSU is and can be. It's not really fair either because he's not horrendous, he's just not an upper tier Big Ten quarterback and college football is based so heavily on quarterback play. Give Penn State Russell Wilson and they would probably be the favorites to win the conference.
ReplyDeleteRB Silas Redd is a beast! I love that he's only a sophomore and think he can really be a force for the next few years. I agree 100% about McGloin. He's not terrible but has shown signs of terrible decision making. But then he'll shown signs of greatness too. The fact that he was a 3rd string walk on without a scholarship last year just goes to show that anything can happen in college football.
ReplyDeleteEven with the big win over Wisconsin I don't feel like we are the clear favorite in our division.
ReplyDeleteI can't find Nebraska's home record in recent years for some reason, but for some reason I feel like I read that they have not lost very often at home in recent years.
They beat us and suddenly we are relying on them to lose another game, and if that other game is to Michigan we need UM to lose another game too.
We might be slightly in the lead, but still a long way to go IMO. Especially since we also need to go on the road to Iowa. It's really not easy to win on the road in the B1G.
Hard to believe we are in this position from where we were at after the ND game. But as the offensive line has gained experience, they have gone from a major liability to at least "ok". Have done a pretty good job protecting cousins. They probably haven't quite opened holes in the running game the way the coaching staff would like, but they have improved.
I will say that I think our defense is pretty well equipped to deal with Nebraska's offense. Especially having seen Denard only two weeks ago. Narduzzi has done a pretty good job scheming to limit denard the last two years. Hopefully that continues.
That said, it's still a tough road game against a team that knows a loss basically ends their B1G hopes. I expect another close game.
The upcoming game result aside, it's worth pointing out. MSU is 17-3 in the last 20 games. Yes, it has helped that the conference has been a little down, and we missed OSU for two years, but that's still pretty rediculous from where this program was just a few years ago.