The battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy takes place this Saturday at noon in East Lansing. Spartans are confident riding their 3 game win streak in the series and need to be reminded of the series all-time record of 67-31-5.
(it should be noted that um is a mere 34-22-2 since the Paul Bunyan trophy was established. thats what? a JLSmith tenure worth of dominance?- tbone) This year, what appears to be two evenly matched teams will do battle. To better prepare you, Tbone and I will provide a rundown of a match-up of personnel and try to figure out who has an advantage in this game.
Up today, the battle in:
The Trenches
Big Ten games are usually decided by who wins the battle up front. While this battle won't be the only one we discuss it may just be the most important.
First up: Michigan's D-Line
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| He's crazy...good. Crazy and good? Yeah maybe that's it |
Michigan's defense is vastly improved and a lot of the credit needs to go to a veteran defensive front. They aren't the biggest defensive line in the B1G but they do have a lot of talent. Mike Martin has had games in his career when he was a one man wrecking crew but has battled some injuries that have slowed him down. He appears to be healthy and regularly taking on double teams. He has the capability to make big plays when Cousins drops back and also will be stout in the run game. Ryan Van Bergen is the epitome of solid, he has a high motor and never stops pursuing the football. Craig Roh has really picked up his game lately and will be a factor in the pass rush. In an ideal world, Michigan will shut down the Spartans running game and get after Cousins in obvious passing situations with the blitz.
The defensive line for Michigan is not a dominating unit but they are a solid Big Ten D-line. If the Spartans oft discussed offensive line issues are for real, Michigan has players capable of exploiting the weakness.
And that brings us to...
Tbone on the Spartans O-line
I wrote this when Pat and I started the blog.
(This is a legit concern. And I wont even try to argue otherwise. However, I will try to talk them up a bit. Skylar Burkland is a redshirt freshman and I haven't read one bad thing about him. Hes big, hes fast, and is knocking the defensive ends on their asses in scrimmage. Jared Mcgaha, is a senior, he has played in every eligible season and has started. hes not as thick as Dan However, Jared is 6-6. Dan France came from the defensive line. However, he was originally recruited as a OT out of high school. This unit will make mistakes, false starts, etc. Hopefully they will learn quick..... And you may remember this position switch, he came from the defensive line. O, here's an image:
(plus with all this youth, imagine the unit next year, sounds like future best OL in the B1G.)
This still rings true and after the OSU game, we look pretty good. I think Travis Jackson is a huge difference maker for the offensive line. The OSU defense is solid, and after watching us give up zero sacks I feel fairly good about our ability to keep Cousins clean against UM. This is obviously a huge difference maker, if UM can get to Cousins and get him nervous in the pocket and throwing off the back foot, it will be a long day. I do not have a lot to say about the offensive line because I write about them every week.
(Pat interjects: Doesn't Burkland's injury turn a line with question marks and upside into a cross your fingers and pray situation?)
So it looks like Tbone is cautiously optimistic with regards to the Spartans O-line play in this game. Let's see how he feels about the...
Spartans Defensive line
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| Validating the preseason hype? |
The defensive line is a different story. Again, to use the OSU game, our defensively line was dominant. Will Gholston finally had a coming out party, and is excellent in pursuit. This game will be a little different and the OSU game was no reason to believe we can win a game solely on defense. Sure, we won the game basically on defense but OSU's offense is that bad. (i think the Nebraska game was a fluke). Keeping Denard inside the tackles and making him throw will be a huge advantage for MSU. There is no mistaking his ability to run the ball, his passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Jerel Worthy needs to have a monster game especially after all the news surrounding his tattoo. Something else to watch are hits Denard takes. He took a lot of hits early in the Northwestern game and seems, this year, to have a great ability to bounce back. It is always nice to get hits on the quarterback and hitting Denard, and maybe seeing UM put in an unproven QB in would be monumental. Marcus Rush is a legit pass rushing threat. He is a red shirt freshman defensive end who has high motor and this year has shown her can play. Anthony Rashad White is the nose tackle, 6-2 320 pounds of hurt. He hasnt really done a lot to impress me, but with that kind of girth he can plug holes. If we are to win this game, the defensive line needs to get through UM's offensive line and bottle up Denard. Stop him from running rampant and we can win this.
(Pat interjects again: I heard in the off-season that this Spartan unit was going to be the strength of the entire team. I've seen some concrete evidence to back that up but also have some lingering doubts. Namely, the schedule thus far. MSU has played some horrendous offenses.)
And to round it out...
Michigan's O-line
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| Thin to win |
Even in the disappointing 2010 season, Michigan ran the football. Most have attributed that success to Denard Robinson's crazy ability (that's true, obviously) but the offensive line is also deserving of plenty of credit. Taylor Lewan will play left tackle in the NFL and David Molk will play center. This unit (starting unit, depth is worse than shaky) is probably the best on Michigan's team. They do come into the Spartan game with a few question marks and namely, will they be asked to drive block or zone and reach block? They are less than mediocre at the former and tremendous at the latter. Recruited to run the spread for Rodriguez, these guys are big but very mobile. They aren't Wisconsin's offensive line but they are damn effective. My expectation is that you'll see a lot of zone read this weekend as well as other zone blocking schemes to best utilize the personnel. If Michigan tries to line up and pound the ball against MSU they may have some problems. I'm confident Borges recognizes this and you'll see Michigan gain yards on the ground.
The match-up of Sparty d-line and UM o-line will likely determine this game. Watch to see if Denard finds grass, if he does Michigan will be in good shape. If Denard is constantly harassed because of pressure and third and long, well that's the other option.
In a hypothetical world where you are the GM of an NFL team (or NBA or any pro sport)...Would you rather draft with the first and 4th picks or the 2nd and 3rd?
In my own humble opinion, I think the Spartans have the better defensive line, (1st pick), Wolverines the better offensive line (pick 2), but whereas the Michigan d-line is solid (3rd pick), the Spartans o-line is unproven and a huge question mark (pick...4? 8? 52?)
This is the week that this blog was created for so let's get some discussion in the comments. Tell me how wrong (or right) you think I am.
Up tomorrow: running backs and wide receivers.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBeing a nice blog manager, i wont full on delete some of my counterparts comments. mainly because he makes valid points. valid point #1 Skyler is out for the season, yes this is a big blow, but I assume most of our readers have read all of our posts. And i mentioned Fou Fonoti in my first post. He is more than capable to fill in. Missing Skyler is missing depth, and he was the starter. But Fou can make it work. plus hes cousins with this guy. take it away Blaha: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYOuMWDVPcQ
ReplyDeletethe second point made by pat is that the D line may or may not be the strength. well pat is right, they may or not be. however, our secondary is solid. this can give the line more time. We certainly have a lot of potential on the D line between Gholston and Rush. Obviously Worthy is loved by the NFL scouts, but has yet to show that potential. Let's see that.
Apparently Kenny is incapable of posting. Does anyone else have this problem? Post to let me know :)
ReplyDeleteAnyway, he sent some thoughts for me to put up so here we go. Tbone, feel free to put these up into a post if you'd like...
Promised our Michigan host some thoughts on the matchup, so that's what I am gonna deliver. We went over this via gchat last night.
Included in that conversation was my recollection of our OSU game, which turned out to not be very accurate. Turns out getting bombed in Champaign before kickoff with Zane does not lend itself to good analysis.
Anyway, I think you guys should just skip the position analysis after the work you did with the offensive and defensive lines. That is the critical matchup.
despite that statement, here are some positional thoughts of my own, (not trying to steal your thunder, but you wanted some commentary!)
Our running backs are better, but denard is the best runner on UM and is more explosive than any of our guys, especially since Baker has looked off. So I think that's sort of a wash.
I think Cunningham is better than any of UM's wideouts, but i'm not enamored with the play of Nichol or Martin thus far. UM doesn't have the headline wideout, but they are all very solid. I think this is also kind of a wash.
I love our tight ends, Linthicum is good, Sims is a beast, Celek is solid. But we have only utilized them sporadically. Don't know much about UM's tight ends other than that RR didn't use a lot of them. Koger? seems pretty good, but not a gamebreaker in my opinion. Maybe we have a slight edge there?
On Defense, I think UM is benefiting from getting some guys back in the secondary. It's probably not a strength, but it's not the glaring, soul crushing blackhole of a weakness it was last year. I have been very impressed with MSU's secondary this year. I think Johnny Adams will be a pro, probably not a high draft pick, but a pro nonetheless. Darqueze Dennard has shown an ability to make plays for a true sophomore. Trenton Robinson has also shown himself to be a playmaker. I think our secondary matches up pretty well against UM's recievers.
UM's linebacker play has improved greatly. Demens is pretty damn good. This will be a game where we might really miss Jones and Gordon. Our linebackers have shown a nice ability to make plays. But against a player like Denard, it's just as important to play disciplined, assignment football. Losing two Seniors from last year could hurt us.
ReplyDeleteHaven't mentioned Cousins. He's taken a little bit of heat from MSU fans. It's slightly deserved, I suppose, but he's been hamstrung by a run game that has done very little against good competition. Cousins has been OK, but you obviously expect a 5th year senior 3 year starter to be better than just OK.
I think these teams are pretty event. MSU's defense is better than UM's. UM's offense is probably better than MSU's, though I still think there are enough playmakers on MSU's offense that it could be pretty explosive.
So we come back to the Line play from your previous post. MSU wants to run a balanced offense. It sets up our playaction, an area Cousins is good. We also have good enough backs that when we are playing well you should be able to expect some big plays in the running game. But that hasn't happened for MSU largely because the O-line has not been consistent.
But i thought they played better against OSU. And ultimately line play has a lot to do with experience and continuity. So I can see steady improvement from that group for MSU. Question is whether that improvement will be enough after 6 weeks, and will be evident on Saturday. If we can move the ball on the ground I like MSU's chances.
On defense it comes down to whether our line can get some pressure on denard rushing only 4. If that happens it lets our linebackers keep him in front of them and limit big plays. He's gonna get yards on the ground. MSU just needs to make sure the 8-10 yard runs he gets don't turn into 50 yarders. Keeping him in the pocket also makes him throw the ball. He's alternated between looking good throwing it and looking terrible. I like our secondary's chances to make some plays on bad throws that will make him pay.
So yea, I think it comes down to line play and turnovers. There was much (sometimes heated) discussion about the game last year. UM moved the ball, especially early but turned it over deep in MSU territory twice. Without those, the game is much closer.
So yea those are some of my thoughts. I'll hold off on a prediction for now and maybe think some more about it.
But in summary, If MSU can move the ball on the ground it will let us run the balanced offense we want to. This lets cousins play to his strengths. If UM is stuffing us, I think Cousins is good enough to have a big game, but it's not a position I reall want us to be in.
On defense, the goal is to contain denard. Limit big plays and see if he can beat you throwing. This seems obvious, but it's not that easy, as many of UM's opponents have found out.
I think MSU's talent level is a little better overall. But Denard is explosive. And our weak link (the O-line) might be weaker than any unit on UM.
So yea, i think it should be a good game. Vegas has MSU -3, basically a toss up with an MSU edge for home field. I think that's about right.
Kenny jumps the gun a bit there, but we'll go through the other matchups and get some predictions up by Friday. The battle for the right to wallpaper the blog has me excited.
ReplyDelete