Constitution of a Successful Season

Fan expectations fluctuate from year to year for every sports team. Some perennial contenders routinely set the bar at titles or bust while others simply are happy to compete or make a bowl game. College football is a sport that takes regular season (the B1G) championships more seriously than other sports. (Does anyone really care if their NBA team wins it's division or has the best regular season record in the sport?)

Expectations throughout the years for Michigan and Michigan State have sometimes been in lockstep with one another and at other times been vastly different. So let's consider expectations for 2012 and discuss what would constitute as a good season for each squad.

Michigan is coming off an 11-2 season and a BCS bowl victory, yet the season was publicly branded a failure by head coach Brady Hoke.  The stated goal is to win the B1G championship.   I actually disagree with Hoke and would consider last season an unqualified success after the transition from the Rodriguez era at Michigan.  I do love coach Hoke's attitude that anything but a Big Ten title is a failure, which is the right goal for the team and the coach.  Us fans have more leeway to alter expectations however we prefer.

The stated goal.

2012 Outlook: When looking at the schedule and the depth chart, Michigan is unlikely to be a national title contender this season.  The Big Ten title though, is very much within reach.  In having their top divisional competitor (MSU) in the Big House, Michigan has a nice advantage.  The game in Lincoln against the Cornhuskers will also have significant impact on the division race.  One very interesting thing about Hoke's stated goal is that it alleviates some of the pressure of the non-conference season.  If Michigan loses to Alabama or Notre Dame (both very possible this season) their main goal remains intact.

The Must-Win: For this season, the game against the Spartans has added emphasis for Michigan and even moreso for bloggers and fans that live within the state of Michigan.  Last season it was all about the proverbial Ohio State monkey on their backs and The Game always has massive significance as it will again this year with Urban Meyer beginning his career leading the Buckeyes.  Still, my own opinion is that the MSU game has surpassed the OSU game as the most important game on Michigan's schedule this season.  Some of that has to do with the rivalry heating and MSU's recent success but it is mostly due to the fact that the winner of this year's in-state showdown in Ann Arbor will have the inside track to Indianapolis for a shot at the Big Ten crown and a Rose Bowl berth. 

In historical perspective, 2011 was a great season for the Spartans.  With a victory over Michigan, winning the division and a bowl game victory (first for Dantonio) MSU ratcheted up program momentum yet again.

2012 Outlook:  For Michigan State, I think the goal should also be a Big Ten championship.  I've read some articles saying that Spartan players and coaches have their sights set higher than the B1G and on a national championship.  Of course you want to win all your games, but a Big Ten title would always constitute as a good season in East Lansing, wouldn't it Spartan fans? 

What will make Sparty happy?

The Must-Win: Even with the win streak against their rival, the Michigan game remains the most important game on the Spartans schedule and that importance has only increased with the teams now becoming divisional foes.

The Question:  Michigan fans, would you be happy with a season that saw your team win the B1G but lose to MSU?  Personally, I would be happy with a season that included a victory over Ohio State and a berth in the Rose Bowl no matter what happens against the Spartans. 

Is this in the future for Denard Robinson?

How about you, MSU fans, would a B1G title be enough to take the sting away from losing to your rivals in Ann Arbor or does a victory over Michigan alone qualify the season as a success?

B1G Media Days

Is there anything more boring?  This isn't that kind of blog.

Chad Henne rhymes with douchebag.

and SHARK FARTS!!

Isn't that more fun than media days?

Up From the Comments

Pat posts this zinger on my joke post:

"Doesn't work that way...Penn State's wins are vacated but MSU doesn't get a win. Ohio State still had a a better record than MSU in 2008 as well. Good try Sparty. You're still at 7 Big Ten championships in your illustrios history. Though it is frustrating that Michigan has been stuck on 42 Big Ten Championships for awhile now..."

First off, I am aware that we dont get any extra wins.  Meant to be a joke guys.

The bigger thing here is the arrogance factor of that comment, someone mad that his players are getting arrested left and right?  Seems like a loss of institutional control to me.

Someone get this guy a drink!

And this guy some keys.

Fitzgerald Toussaint and Frank Clark, they should  be back by what, the second quarter against Alabama?  

Coronation

Ladies and gentleman, your 2008 Big Ten Champions are the Michigan State Spartans

(this did not happen)

A Rivals Perspective

Here I will outline the case for why MSU fans should temper expectations for 2012.  I'll admit before I start that I'm taking a very pessimistic stance, (or is that optimistic as a Michigan fan?)

Below are 3 reasons MSU fans should be leery of 2012.

#1: Luck Always Runs Out

The Spartans have enjoyed tremendous success under Mark Dantonio the past two seasons.  After a losing record in 2009, MSU won a share of the B1G title while winning 11 games in 2010.

The magical 2010 season included the "Little Giants" victory over Notre Dame, a  miraculous (2 TD's in the final 2 minutes) victory over Northwestern and another amazing comeback (aided by a blocked punt) to beat a bad Purdue team after trailing by 11 in the 4th quarter.   Momentum came to a screeching halt when the Spartans got their teeth knocked in by Alabama in the bowl game. Still, 2010 was a banner year with a share of the Big Ten title and an 11-2 record but the Spartans won every close game in which they competed while being blown off the field in both losses.

Along came 2011 and the MSU good fortune continued.  Right up until the B1G championship game, MSU once again never fell in a close game.  They were beaten soundly by Notre Dame and smothered by Nebraska while winning on Hail Mary against Wisconsin and beating Ohio State 10-7 in what was the most abysmal display of offense ever seen.  MSU built on their great season with an overtime victory over Georgia, this time getting revenge on the SEC.

It's easy to look at all this and realize MSU has maximized their win totals the previous two seasons.  They have played good football, but 11-2, 11-3?  Those records were only possible with very good fortune.  And the thing about luck...it always runs out.

#2: Paper Tiger Defense

Michigan State finished the season as the 5th ranked defense in the country (yards per game) and the 9th ranked defense (points per game).  These gaudy statistics, combined with returning talent (which we have been outlining for you in our defensive position group previews) has Spartans believing their defense is going to shut down errbody.  But not so fast my friend, before crowing MSU's D as one of the best in the country, let's take a look at that 2011 schedule more closely. 

Below is the Spartans schedule followed by their opponents offensive rank (ypg) for 2011.

Youngstown State - Mediocre 6-5 FCS team. Stats unavailable for FCS.
Florida Atlantic - 120th
Notre Dame - 35th
Central Michigan - 57th
Ohio State - 107th
Michigan - 42nd
Wisconsin - 14th
Nebraska - 66th
Minnesota - 110th
Iowa - 76th
Indiana - 83rd
Northwestern - 34th
Wisconsin - 14th
Georgia - 39th


MSU faced a top 25 offense (Wisconsin) only twice all season.  They faced a top 50 offense in only 6 out of 14 contests on the season.  On the other side of the coin, they played against 3 teams that finished in the bottom 20 for offense including the worst offensive team in the entire country, along with an FCS foe that isn't listed but certainly had a listless offense. 

This isn't to mention the tornado like winds during games with Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska diminishing each teams offense in those games, or the fact that when MSU played Ohio State they were still starting and playing Joe Bauserman at quarterback.


The case above is pretty clear: MSU's defensive statistics and the so-called dominance of their defense were both greatly exaggerated by playing extremely poor offensive teams. 



#3: Kirk Cousins

What do the 2009 and 2012 Spartan teams have in common? 
A first year starting QB.

MSU entered 2009 with Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins battling for the starting position.  That season ended with a 6-7 record.  This season things are more clear as Andrew Maxwell is the clear cut leader of the Spartans offense.  Still, Cousins leadership, dependability, play making and starting experience all have contributed mightily to MSU's success the last two seasons.  He's gone.  It will be a new guy leading that offense in the huddle, changing plays at the line of scrimmage and facing Big Ten road crowds.  Would MSU have won with a first year starting QB at Ohio State last year?  Would they have won on Hail Mary against Wisconsin?  Could they have defeated Georgia?  The loss of Cousins is going to diminish the effectiveness of the offenses and make things as simple as play calling more difficult.  Maxwell has talent but he's barely seen the field.  Expect his inexperience to cost MSU in at least a game or two this season.  Maxwell may someday be a star, but it will be difficult for him to keep quarterback play on the same level it has been the last two seasons in East Lansing and college football, after all, is all about the QB.

Do the Math

(I probably just lost any Spartans readers at that header...)

A team with an overrated defense and an inexperienced quarterback which has been pumped up by luck in numerous close games sees it all come crashing back to earth this season.

Safeties

Michigan safety play was above average last season and the only departure is oft-injured Troy Woolfolk, a guy who bounced from corner to safety throughout his career.

Strong Safety:

Jordan Kovacs returns for his senior season to lead the defense from the strong safety position.  Kovacs went from feel-good story as a walk-on freshman becoming a starter to many fan's whipping boy as a sophomore to flat out baller as a junior.  As a senior, expect Kovacs to push for all-conference honors.  He may even be draftable in the late rounds next year or at least get invites to camps as an undrafted rookie. (Don't bet against him)

Backing up Kovacs will be the highly touted Marvin Robinson, a guy who regular comes in for praise for blowing people up in practice.  If Marvin ever puts everything together he could become an elite player (due to size, speed and athleticism) Another guy in the mix here will be Josh Furman who missed spring practice because of a criminal case against him, only to have all charges dismissed by the judge because he apparently didn't do anything wrong.  Weird situation but Furman was a guy who stood out on special teams last year and could possibly push for playing time.

Free Safety:

Thomas Gordon returns after a solid sophomore season.  Gordon seemed to be in the right place at the right time a lot, coming up with key turnovers.  Still, he battled Troy Woolfolk for the starting position and the coaches regularly went back to Woolfolk.  Gordon lacks the speed you'd desire in a deep safety but he seems to make up for it with making the right plays and playing with good instincts.

True freshman Jarrod Wilson enrolled early and will push to get himself into the 2-deep as Gordon's backup.  The depth here is a bit scary so it's possible/likely that Robinson and/or Furman also practice at this position.

Michigan should be very strong up the middle of their secondary this season.  Kovacs is simply not going to make mistakes.  Gordon can be trusted to play at a high level as well, he's proven he's capable.  This should be a real positive area for the Wolverines in 2012 and should help to make their defense one of the best in the Big Ten.


The MSU safety position is seeing a slight face lift after the graduation of captain Trenton Robinson.  However, like the rest of the defense, Dantonio has built a  lot of depth at the safety position.

Free Safety:

Returning starter Isiah Lewis will help keep the transition clean from Trenton to himself. Last year, Isiah was a second team all B1G selection. Isiah started all 14 games at strong safety and had two pick 6's.  (one was against Michigan, BOOM.)  Isaiah will be a player that's name is mentioned a lot this year.     Having made second team all conference, he should should make the leap to first team this year.  With 74 tackles and 4 picks, Isaiah is looking primed for a break out year.  Ball hawk skills and big pop make him a player other teams will avoid throwing deep against. 

Strong Safety:

Kurtis Drummond should be the starter at FS along side Isaiah. Though RJ Williamson has been showing a lot of skill and is right behind Drummond.  Last year, Drummond played behind Robinson and saw action in 12 games.  In his time on the field, Kurtis had 17 tackles and two interceptions.  Drummond has length and a good bit of speed out of the safety position.  He is the type of player that can easily drop back in coverage or sneak up and make plays against rushing quarterbacks.  I expect Drummond to hang on to the starter role mainly due to the experience he has.  However, Williamson will push him.

RJ came into his freshman year with a good amount of hype.  Especially once he got on the practice field.  Coach D was unsure if they should hold his talent back with a redshirt.  He had the ability to see playing time as a true freshman.  Now however, you will see that come together.  Like Drummond last year, I expect RJ to see a fair amount of playing time.  The drop from Drummond to Williamson will not be huge, which is a good thing MSU fans.

Other players to note would be Jarious Jones who is backing up Isaiah Lewis.  Jairus tore his ACL in last years spring practices and saw some limited action last year.  However, you may remeber him as being the guy that forced a fumble at Iowa last season to allow the first victory of MSU at Iowa since 1989.  Another player worth mentioning is Demeitrious Cox our of Jeannette, PA (i think the same city and high school as terrelle pryor.)  Cox will be a true freshman and was a four star recruit out of high school with some pretty serious offers including ND, OSU and PSU.  I would not be surprised if he skipped his red shirt.  However, Cox was unable to enroll early so he could be a bit behind as practice rolls around.

Overall, this is another position group that I think is stronger top to bottom than UM's.  I am a big Kovacs fan, but the way this MSU defense plays, I think MSU has the edge here.  This MSU safety group should receive the All B1G accolades, especialy Isaiah Lewis. As a whole, the MSU defense is just better than the UM defense.  I do not mean to take anything away from UM and what their defense did last year, but this if last year is an indication, or the norm, we have a good thing going.

Frick, I am excited for college football this year.

In the Interest of Rooting

(This was written in full by pat. and posted by tbone)

Michigan and Michigan State begin the 2012 football season with two of the highest profile games in the country as Michigan squares off with Alabama in Dallas and the Spartans take on Boise State in a Friday night affair. Tbone and I will be certainly be rooting for our respective Alma Maters, but what about rooting for our rival? Blasphemy to some fans, but I think the discussion here is an interesting one.

When conference season rolls around, because they are in the same division, MSU and UofM benefit when their in-state rivals suffers a loss. Rooting against MSU simply makes sense for the Michigan fan in this scenario. The season opener, however, is a non-conference game which changes the dynamic. Michigan does not directly benefit from an MSU loss to Boise State. The only benefit I can see is the ability to take a little joy in a loss by a rival. Is that sufficient reason to actively root against a fellow conference team? I will admit that rooting for MSU to win has gotten more difficult the past 4 years. When Michigan was routinely winning against their in-state rival it didn't matter much what MSU did outside of the Michigan game and it also helped this feeling that they were never really in contention competing against Michigan for a spot in a bowl game or for a Big Ten championship.

With MSU's improvement, that has all changed and it is certainly more difficult to pull for them. I think I actively rooted for Michigan State in only one contest last season, the bowl game against Georgia. I am on board with the consensus that the SEC is the best conference in college football (they have proven it on the field) but I believe the gap is much smaller than most make it seem. I will root for 11 of the 12 Big Ten schools in any matchup with the SEC and almost all Big Ten schools during the non-conference season. I like seeing the profile of the conference go up and I would love for the Big Ten to make a return to being the best conference in the country.

As it concerns the opener, I don't have a whole lot against Boise St other than believing they are regularly overrated because they don't play a tough schedule week in and week out. I probably won't care much either way to what happens in MSU's opener but I would rather see them win to elevate the perception of the Big Ten.

How about you, MSU fans, will you root for Michigan against the SEC evil that is Alabama?

My one caveat about all this...I do find it hard to root for OSU in almost any situation. I just dislike them so much I want to see nothing but sadness and despair for their fans. I may root for them in some specific case against an SEC school but it's not guaranteed.

Is that the way Michigan State fans view Michigan?