ACC/B1G Challenge

So here we are, another basketball season is in full swing.  MSU has been about what everyone expected compiling a 4-2 record with losses to UNC and Duke.  As a side note, MSU is the first team since NC State to play UNC and Duke as the first two games of the year.  I think that was sometime in the 70s, but don't quote me on that.  As of now the B1G sits with a 4-2 lead over the ACC in this years edition of the challenge.  What should we expect out of tonight's match up featuing MSU and Florida State?

First off expect a lot of offensive rebounding.  MSU currently rebounds their own misses at a rate of 35% while FSU is at 38%.  To go along with that, both teams love turning the ball over.  With both teams being over 10% of their possessions ending by losing the ball on possession. 

From there shooting will be a crucial.  FSU will run a lot of zone and force opponents to shoot a lot of three's.  In college, this is how upsets happen.  Unfortunately, MSU is awful at shooting the three ball at 23.8%  At lets be honest, there is one thing that MSU has been awful at for about the last 4 years it is shooting the three.  As a fan, I can only hope we score inside, or someone steps up and finally makes a three  ball. 

With that, both these teams are strong defensively and both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency stats (see kenpom) 

This is a short writeup and as the seasons goes on, I will get more indepth.  However, living in Chicago makes it hard to watch all the MSU games,  in the three I have seen (UNC, Duke UALR)  MSU has looked both good and bad. Off the bat it is easy to say Brandon Wood needs to step his game up, he is not at Valpo anymore.  He needs to score and shoot consistantly.  Along with that, Appling, has been very ineffective.  His best offense has been a charge.  If he can learn a pull up jumper or a tear drop, he could be deadly driving to the hoop.  For good notes,  Dawson has been unbelievable,  same with Nix and at times Payne.  I have not seen Kearney play one possession, and I imagine he wont play a lot all season. Similarly, Russell Byrd has not been able to find his stroke.  It looks pure in the air just isn't going through (please let his shot start falling).

So how can MSU win this?  Well if we can get back to what MSU is known for.  An up tempo game, pushing it out of bounds after rebounds and scoring in transition.  Of course the last time we were in the Final 4, we were hitting shots all year.  This years team has not been able to to that, so far.  This FSU team will be a great challenge with their length and athleticism.  A win would go a long way for MSU and will add a lot of confidence.   Also, Izzone, be loud.  The students mostly suck as football fans, and Izzo has called them out already this year for a lack of enthusiasm.  GET LOUD IZZONE.  In spite of the two teams defenses, I expect an uptempo game. I will call it 68-60 MSU. 

As it has been well stated before.  I am not much for stats in games.  They are nice to look at but when it comes to basketball, any team can get hot or any player can get cold.  Usually in basketball, the team with the best player on the floor wins.  This is especially true of college.  So in future writings you will hear me gripe a lot based on observations.  My observation that Durrell Summers was riding the struggle bus and looked off as far back as last years Maui Invitational almost got me kicked off the prestigious the only colors mainly because I will not back my observations up with any sort of stats.  By the end of the year, my game 2 observation was well established by the stat heads over there, and used as their own brilliant commentary.  You observe the game you see what is going on it is that simple.  That is how I like to watch basketball and that is how the game is played.

Something of Monkeys and Backs

Sweet joyous relief 

The euphoria I felt Saturday hadn't existed since Notre Dame 2006.  I was quite literally leaping into the air repeatedly, for just a moment in time I was a honorary member of the Grammatica family.

(Silly Grammaticas)


You just have to feel good about Michigan's seniors.  It's been discussed extensively on the interwebs but enduring three different head coaches (the 5th year guys) and the most futility in half a century and all the negativity swirling around the program would break greater men than I, but not this group of seniors.  They made a decision to stay together, to hold their team together and overcome it at all.  They didn't win a B1G title, but they exceeded all reasonable expectations and finally ripped that giant Ohio State gorilla from their backs. 

If Brady Hoke goes on to become an iconic figure in Michigan football history there will be a story written about this group of seniors and what they meant to Brady Hoke's program.  I cannot overstate the importance of that victory.

Of course, Ohio State needed to change the headlines so they have already announced Urban Meyer as their next head coach.  Urban is going to recruit extremely well, but you wonder if he'll be able to rebuild the wall that Tressel had built around Ohio.  I also wonder if any coach can live up to the expectations being laid at Urban's feet.  He is now the savior of the Buckeyes program and any struggles, even minor, will incite the rabid fan base.  If he was stressed out at Florida we can only imagine how he'll handle the fire in Columbus.

When I first starting hearing all the Urban to Ohio rumors I was not very thrilled at the prospect but after thinking it over, I think I like it.  I like seeing Ohio State struggle but nothing is better for the Big Ten and Michigan football than Ohio State and Michigan meeting as top 10 teams in epic clashes.  I can see some of those clashes happening in the next 5 years.

BCS

Here's Michigan's rooting guide for next week.


In the Big 12:
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
Texas over Baylor
Iowa State over KState

In the championship games:
LSU over Georgia
Virginia Tech over Clemson
UCLA over Oregon (ha)
MSU over Wisconsin
Southern Miss over Houston


The big keys are LSU big over Georgia as well as Oklahoma State over Oklahoma.  A MSU win boosts Michigan's strength of schedule and Wisconsin would surely fall behind Michigan in the polls but the result here shouldn't matter too much as either loser is likely to fall behind Michigan in the polls.  The only surefire way to prevent Michigan from making it into the BCS is Georgia beating LSU.

Four Letter Word

Three Things:

1. Limit Braxton Miller 

This guy terrifies me.  I don't envision OSU making long sustained drives in this game.  They are going to get some first downs but their lack of passing game is going to be a drive killer throughout the game.  Ohio State has a tough time creating big plays on offense but the one guy who can do it is Miller in the run game.  Michigan must limit his scrambles to short runs and prevent any big gainers.

2. Limit Turnovers

I know this is a key in every football game but I find it hard to find a scenario where Michigan loses this game unless they lose the turnover margin by at least a couple.  Denard needs to protect the football and take what the defense gives him.  This may be the best defense Michigan has faced the entire season so there will be very little margin for error.

3. Win On First Down

Ohio State may play action a couple times on first downs in this game but more likely expect them to simply line up and run the football.  If Michigan can keep these gains under three yards they are going to put the OSU offense into tough situations.  If Ohio is able to get four or five on first down they are going to have manageable situations all day long.   Watch the matchup in the trenches for a clue here.  Martin and Van Bergen should be fine but the other guys are going to need to step up their play against a big OSU offensive line.

By the same token, when Michigan is on offense they need to be productive on first down.  Denard is not going to be able to beat OSU in third and long situations.  Michigan has the ability to mix it up a little more on first down and also has a much better offense so they should be able to sustain more success on first down than the Buckeyes.

Prediction: 

This is Ohio State's season.  They are going to lay it all on the line but they have little play for other than pride.  Michigan has the pressure on it's shoulders in this game but they also have the better team and are playing with confidence.  I expect a low scoring game that Michigan salts away on the ground in a conservative second half. 

27-19 Michigan

Roundball, Defense and Other Things I'm Thankful For

It's the week of The Game and we're talking about basketball?  Yeah, I guess us Michigan fans have some things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

So I was subbing for a 4th grade class last week and they were making lists of things they were thankful for.  Most kids said cute things like "my mommy" or un-cute spoiled things like "my wii", (humor not lost on me) and some even talked with great perspective saying things like "food, because other people are starving".  Stealing a page out of their book, here's a list of ten things I'm most thankful for as a Michigan fan, in no particular order.

1. Competitive Basketball Team

Following the Chris Webber fallout, Michigan self imposed sanctioned its basketball program to death.  They also hired Tommy Amaker.  Amaker was a good man.  He recruited well, graduated players, did everything with class and within NCAA rules and was pretty much exactly what Michigan wanted out of their basketball program.  It was clean.  It was also terribly dormant as a national competitor.

John Beilein arrived with a resume of success everywhere (literally, he's coached at every single D1 school....well not literally but you know what I meant) He also arrived at the same time as facility upgrades galore.  New practice facility, Crisler renovations, etc.  All this has coincided with a couple of NCAA tournament runs and all of a sudden Michigna has a basketball program worth talking about again.  I like basketball so I'm a fan of this development.
 
2. Overachieving Freshman 

He's a point guard.  He's good.

This section could also be titled "Beilein's ability to find diamonds in the rough".  Here's a leetle story about Tim Hardawy Jr.  He came to Michigan's camp without an offer.  He was seen as a long jumpshooter who wasn't a great basketball player.  JB had a choice to make as scholarships were tight and Michigan was in some highly touted kids.  Hardaway was nowhere near the top 100 on any recruiting site.  He was a sleeper.  He earned his offer, committed soon thereafter and started rising in the rankings.  He could play and people were taking notice.  He's going to be a first round draft pick when he heads to the NBA, he's really awesome.  +1 for JB

This year's Tim Hardaway is Trey Burke.  After watching his highlights, the youtube videos of his strenuous workouts he put in every morning at 5:30am and then seeing his recruiting ranking, I was a little perplexed.  I mean, some teams are going to be getting really awesome players if they are 90 of them better than this kid, which was pretty much the consensus from all the services.  So Burke came in, earned the starting job, outplayed Joe Jackson of Memphis (widely considered one of the best PG's in college basketball) and has shown himself to be simply awesome.  +2 JB, thanks, I like you.

3. Greg Mattison

Man.  Love.

Man love. Bottom ten to top ten in every important defensive category with the same players. :)

4. Coaches with Job Security

It's nice heading into The Game with a galvanized fan base supporting Brady Hoke while Ohio has a lame duck coach, Urban rumors swirling and a 6-5 record.  Those proverbial tables, they've turned.  It feels good. 

5. Retina Burning Maize Jerseys

So we head out to dinner last night in Texas and there's a tv on in the bar showing a basketball game.  It was far away but there was no mistaking the blindingly bright maize jerseys as Michigan's.  I was able to mosey on over and check the score and see Michigan taking care of business against UCLA.  Seriously though, that color should not exist.  Normal maize is not fluorescent.

6. Little Bro

My big brother has told me he's proud of me, so I'll pass that along and let Michigan's little bro, the Sparties, know that we are secretly proud of you.  You've overcome the "Sparty No" to rise up and be at the top of the Big Ten for a couple of seasons.  We don't want you beating us, (seriously, cut that out) but you can beat OSU every year and we'll be proud of you.  Good luck in the Big Ten championship game little guy, we know you can do it!

7. Velcro

You need it if you want your shoelaces untied.

8. A Secondary

Seems like Michigan hasn't had one of these since I was in college.  My hairline hints at this being a long interval.  It's nice to have a defensive backfield again.

9. The Game

More on this tomorrow, but I wait so anxiously for football season for so long and now we only have one game left.  At least it's the biggest of the year against that school down south.  This is always the biggest game of the year and I'm glad they kept it as the season finale.  Every year will end with a bang.  Go Blue, Beat Ohio!

10. Packers @ Lions

For the first time in a long, long time, the Lions play on Thanksgiving in an extremely meaningful game.  This isn't even their first appearance on national television this season!  It's going to be a tough matchup against the undefeated Packers.  Speaking of the Pack, they are much more difficult to hate now with Favre gone.  Man I hated him.  Aaron Rodgers is so much more likeable.  I like his discount double check commercial.  I like his demeanor, I just kinda like him. Hopefully Suh and Vandenbosch sack him a lot today but don't hurt him too much.  If the Lions win today the hype will hit a fever pitch and the Lions will be in great shape for a playoff spot.  Thanks Lions for finally being competitive in the professional league with the most parity.  You were terrible for so many years that now it's so much more exciting when you are simply pretty good.

Turkey and Dreams

MMMMM turkey.  Sweet sweet turkey.  Hard to run a blog when your traveling to Boston.  Taking brewery tours, eating Indian food, and being about the laziest human possible.  Yet here I am.  Because I love all of the readers, Pat and I have cultivated. MSU has now played three lower level teams in  basketball and has gone 3-0 in those games.  Not much to say regarding that, these are teams we should beat 100% of the time, and did.  The next major opponent is Gonzaga at Gonzaga. MSU football is taking on Northwestern on Saturday, and I am sure Pat will have plenty regarding his team, apparently, they're playing The Ohio State University. 

But let us move on to the famous three things.

1. Avoiding the upset:

Can MSU avoid the upset?  After clinching a birth to the B1G championship game, this game is not as important as it could have been.  The players will need to remain strong mentally to avoid a let down.  What this game does present is the opportunity to win the Legends division outright.  Should MSU lose and UM win, UM will secure a share of the division, we cant have that. 

2.  Contain the offense:

That is, play good defense.  MSU will need to contain Northwestern, from the start of the game, MSU will need to keep Northwestern's offense off the field.  With Northwestern there are two very mobile quarterbacks in Persa and Colter.  Persa is very accomplished and looks mostly rehabbed from his achilles injury last year.  When throwing Persa will pass to Jeremy Ebert on most attempts.  Occasionally Persa will run the option, where he remains effective.  This is where Colter can be a huge threat.  Colter also plays wide receiver for the wildcats but from time to time, Colter will line up at quarterback.  When this happens, look for Colter to run the ball.  His passes come out a little duck like, but his speed running the ball is without question a real threat. This will be a good prep game headed into B1G championship.  Lots of blitzing from the linebackers and bull rushing with our ends will keep their quarterbacks on edge.  Right now our secondary is playing at a level that they will be able to keep the Northwestern wide receivers in check with little underneath help. 

3.  Keep the scoring going:

I fully expect MSU to score and score often against Northwestern.  After putting up 55 against the lowly Hoosiers, the MSU offense is firing on all cylinders.  A lot of that can be attributed to the offensive line.  I mentioned the offensive line in nearly every three things to start the year, but now they have gelled.  Fou Fonoti and Dan France both look strong right now and have improved dramatically as the season has gone on.  Travis Jackson looks as good as advertised and will be a four yeart starter for MSU at center, that is impressive.  As such, Kirk Cousins has had an impressive year, even against Nebraska, the offensive line played well.  Look for this to continue as the offense controls the ball on the ground.  Just like against Indiana, MSU should run the ball effectively while gashing Northwestern for big scoring plays. 

Prediction:  MSU wins this game.  Dantonio has already stated he is playing and preparing the players like nothing is different.  Dantonio has also stated he does not want to share the division with Wolverines.  Look for this one to be around 38-17.  About a three score victory is what I am expecting. 

Epic Fail

I don't think I even need to write why.  Here is the story link

Good one Victoria's Secret. 

BUSY!

Whirlwind week that included being stuck in Atlanta for a night, jetlag, football banquets, interviews and subbing for a bunch of prick 7th graders


So I'm entering into the Tbone category of blogging effort.

3 Things:

1. Drob vs Tmart

The QB who plays the better game likely wins it. 

2. Mike Martin vs Errybody

After Tbone declared the Mike Martin hype dead after the UM-MSU game, he's gone out and dominated in three straight games. 

3. Pat vs Happiness

Optimism, true optimism is creeping in.  I called this game a free roll, that's still true.  Win or lose tomorrow this season will be defined as a success or a failure by next week's game.  However, this is still an important game as far as national perception is concerned.

Prediction:

Michigan's defense looked nearly dominant last week.  I'm a bit cynical, believing the performance was more about Illinois being terrible rather than Michigan being dominant.  We'll find out more tomorrow but my expectation is that both Burkhead and Martinez have good days on the ground attacking the edges of Michigan's D as the young DE's make mistakes in the option game.  I also think Nebraska's defense isn't anywhere near great.  Playing in the Big House, I think Michigan will move the ball throughout the game.  If they capitalize in the red zone and get off to a good start I think they'll win this game.  This was a game I pegged as a likely loss before the season so it's nice being a little more confident now.

31-28 Michigan

To Clinch Or Not To Clinch

Yup, that is the question.  That was about as lame as a Caddylack tweet.  So where are we? Well MSU has about a 30 point lead over Texas Southern.  The color commentator played for Indiana in 1976 that wen 32-0 and 63-1 in 1975 and 1976, that is ridiculous.  That squad was the last undefeated team.  On to the game though, Trice looks good.  As does Dawson and Nix, and Appling.  We look good, but were playing Texas Southern.  I did not preview this game because I figured we would crush them.  I likely wont preview a lot of the non B1G games, save for Gonzaga.  (Jud is a season ticket holder for the Zags)

This Saturday at 11 am central, the Michigan State Spartans take on the Indiana Hoosiers in our protected cross over rivalry game.  The battle for the Old Brass Spitoon. Currently, MSU leads the Series 40-12-1.  Not  bad. 

1: Controlling the clock.

MSU will looks to run a lot in this game.  Controlling the clock and working the Indiana defense.   Indiana's defense is not very stout and is prone to giving up big plays.  MSU should score on big plays, 25+ yards while simultaneously running the ball early and often.  Cunningham should have a big game, with long receptions for touchdowns. 

2:  Stop the Tre.

MSU will need to bottle up the Indiana quarterback Tre Robinson.  He is a more slender dual threat QB at 6-1 184.  However, he can dual threat.  MSU has shown great ability to bottle up these types of quarterbacks and there no reason to believe that wont continue.  With limited weapons, for the Hoosiers, look for MSU to leave receivers in solo coverage and attack Robinson all game.

3: Senior game!

Well, this is it.  MSU's seniors are graduating.  This Spartan senior class is the winningest class in school history.  Look for these guys to start the game, play well and get off the field so their backups can play.  As Spartan fans we should wildly supportive of this class, and if the student section is not sold out, you will see an op-ed column in the State News.

Call it 42-14 MSU for the reasons mentioned above.

(makes me want a dip)

Two for One

First off, I gotta say my Iowa MSU  prediction was pretty solid.  Though MSU jumped out to an early lead, 31-7, Iowa clawed its way back and made the final score a lot closer.  And yes, at a few points I was worried we might lose this one. I did not see that game scoring so many points.

The finer points:  Kirk Cousins got some sweet sweet redemption.  No turnovers, and touchdowns to boot.  Touchdowns  you say? Did you see the pass and catch from Kirk to BJ for their second td hookup?  That was an NFL cactch.  BJ is very good.  Also, helluva catch by Edwin Baker for the TD.   The running game got going again with over 150 yards.  And we held Coker to his lowest total of the year with 57 yards.  Our rush defense is very good.  Our pass defense is very solid.  More than that though, our defense makes stops when they need to.  This is an excellent unit. 


Part two is all basketball.  MSU lost and lost big to UNC.  However there were many high points.  First and foremost, MSU's ability to crash to boards was something I have not seen in since 2008!  We dominated the boards in that game.  Unfortunately, UNC dominated the scoring.  Along with that great surprise is Branden Dawson.  Dawson looked very good.  He showed great work on defense, outstanding work on the boards, had he knocked down some jumpers, it would have been a complete game. 

Moving forward, we have MSU playing Duke in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night.  Duke is currently ranked 6th in the country and look to be another great Duke team.  No surprise there.  However, MSU can win this game.  And it comes down the rebounding the ball even more.  For as much as MSU crashed the boards in the carrier classic, they need to do double that in MSG.  MSU is not a good field goal shooting team right now, so getting easy put backs will be necessary.  Byrd did not play very much in the Carrier Classic, but should get more minutes as the season wears on, this will help the FG%.  Also, Appling needs to stop with the offensive fouls.  I fully expect a Duke team to be stepping into the lanes and trying to get charge calls.  So fundamentally sound.  However, Izzo knows this, so look for Appling to continue to cut the lane, only this time dish it for the easy layup or the open jumper.  I also expect Wood to take more of a scorers role in this game.  We need it.  Without Wood scoring, this will be a long long season.  Outside of that, MSU will need to limit the outside scoring of Duke.   Should Mike Krzyzysksi get this win it will be the most victories in NCAA history.  If I know Izzo, he will want none of that record.  Look for MSU to win this game in a hard nosed game. (why couldnt this have been played in the midwest!!)  well call it 67-60 MSU. 

The story of MSU's season will be if they can hit shots, especially the three pointer.  Look for them to quiet that, a little bit, in this game. 

GO GREEN

Leaving on a Jet Plane

So I'm heading out of town for a few days and won't be posting.  I'm sure Tbone will hold down the fort well while I'm gone.

If for some reason Tbone lets you down and you need your football fix, I've got some reading for you to do.

Smart Football is a blog you should be reading regularly.  It's not as much opinion about football as it is a detailed breakdown of X's and O's, schemes and plays.  It's not strictly college football as it includes a lot of NFL.  Beware, you can lose many hours increasing your knowledge.   When reading Smart Football time can move at video game pace, which is at least 4x faster than real time.  I will vouch for Chris (the author) as really knowing his stuff.  He also really loves the aerial spread offenses, so you'll see a lot of focus on those plays.

-------------

Some big games in the B1G this week.  At 8-2, Michigan's game against Nebraska sort of feels like a freeroll.  Even if Michigan loses, a win over Ohio State will still cap off an excellent first season for coach Hoke and the Wolverines.  It's nice that this week's game against Nebraska is the most difficult game Michigan has remaining.  I'll have a lot more on the Nebraska game later this week, but it's nice to finally be able to say firmly that this is a much improved Michigan team over the past seasons and they are likely to be favored in both of the last two games.

What Is This?

I think this was 2 years ago, but Mike Martin has been Michigan's most dominant player the last 3 weeks.

Michigan has now played 10 games this season. (though the NCAA is only counting 9 statistically because of the Western rainout)

I know Illinois has been struggling offensively, but after completely and utterly shutting down an opposing team's offense, we Michigan fans can't believe our eyes.  It was only last season that Michigan had it's Worst Defense Ever.  That's not exaggeration but the truth of the actual numbers.

The gory details; 2010 Defensive Stats:
(rank in parenthesis) 

Scoring D: 35.2 (108th)
Total yards: 451 (110th)

Compare that with 2011 through 10 games (9 games counted for Michigan):

Scoring D: 15.5 (5th)
Total yards: 322 (17th)

That is downright silly improvement.  I'm sure some stat junkie will do a comparison at the end of the year of how Michigan's statistical improvement on defense ranks against all-time best 1 season improvements.

It's nice to see a Michigan defense again.  The offense is still a work in progress with Denard still seeming so uncomfortable in Borges' hybrid O but heading into this season I never imagined the defense could carry Michigan to a victory and they did just that.

Even more impressive still for this defense is how it's mostly all the same players.  There are a few true freshman playing very well (Blake Countess, Desmond Morgan are starting) but usually true freshman in the lineup are a reason for concern.  With mostly the same players returning from last year, players that Spielman ridiculed on air last year for not being Michigan caliber, saying that Michigan cannot compete until they recruit some talent, those same players now make up one of the best defenses in the entire country.  Contrast that with the defense last year that allowed a Matt McGloin led Penn State to shred them on touchdown drives on every single possession.  I would even argue the statistics may not have shown truly how bad Michigan was at defense last year.  By midseason last year, while watching the games, if the offense failed to score on one single possession it felt as the though the game was lost. (and it usually was)  Now the offense can sputter up and down the field and the defense is going to give us a chance to win any and every game.

I'm not sure if this says more about Hoke and Mattison or Greg Robinson and RR....but at this point I'm simply relieved to be getting back to Michigan defense.

It wasn't the most beautiful 31-14 victory.  In fact, it probably should have been a much bigger margin if Michigan could capitalize in the red zone.  However, this is what it takes to win college football games on the road in November in the B1G.  It's difficult for offenses to execute perfectly all the time and a stout defense can take control and win a game on it's own.

Moving on to next week, if only Michigan and Nebraska would have taken care of their respective business last week against Iowa and Northwestern, this game may have been the game of the week.  As is, it appears this game will be played for a chance at an at large BCS bid but not a shot at the B1G championship game.  (Though a Nebraska victory would leave them rooting hard for NW in the season's final week)  The winner of this game will have a good chance of a 10-2 finish and a top 12 or so ranking.

Speaking of that championship game...it appears likely that it will be MSU in a rematch with Wisconsin.  Ohio State has no shot and I just don't see Penn State winning on the road in Madison.  If Michigan wins this weekend and MSU takes care of business against lowly Indiana in East Lansing, the Spartans are in. 

I'd be pretty happy with that result.  I think that's an entertaining game to watch in the Championship Game and I'd be happy to keep Penn State and Ohio State out.  I don't want their baggage being the story surrounding the game.  I know none of the current players had anything to do with the Penn State scandal, but I'm confident in saying all the coaches new had knowledge of the situation for a long time.  I'm rooting for the Nittany Lions to lose their remaining games. 

I think Wisconsin would be a solid favorite in the game but as MSU has already proven, they can beat the Badgers.  Tbone will probably get mad at me for jumping the gun a bit here but I think it's OK to make a projection as this matchup is now easily the most likely.

Oh, also, The Game is looking more and more winnable after the Buckeyes performances the last couple of weeks.  It won't be an easy victory, but Michigan has it's best shot at winning since 2006.  That's a horrible streak and if it ends this year, Hoke is going to ride a giant wave of momentum into the off-season.

Quick and dirty

Just how I like my three things.

1:  Cousins.

Kirk needs to have a good game.  This Iowa defense isnt as good as years past but still is very capable of causing turnovers.  Kirk needs to not play like he did last year.

2: Stopping the run.

MSU  needs to stop the Iowa running backs from doing that.  Running.  This will force Iowa to pass more.  That might not be a good thing because McNutt is a sick sick receiver. 

3: Score points.

Our offense has been a bit off track.  It certainly didn't look spectacular against Minnesota.  We need to score points, a close game here and we could very well lose.  To score points, I see MSU taking advantage of their tight ends more than in any other game with a lot of passes up the middle.  Sims has a broken wrist and is playing with a cast on.  I sure hope he doenst play a lot becuase it cannot be easy to catch a ball like that.  Linthicum is more than capable of catching the  ball.  Along with that.  MSU has been saying all week that they are gonna pound the ball.  Look for that too, but mostly to set up play action passes.  If we can break a couple runs early, were gonna score on a 40 yard bomb later.

Prediction:

Everyone that I read, so mostly MSU bloggers are calling for a close game.  That seems very logical.  But that is something that I lack.  We will go 27-17.  That sounds close but I think MSU is going to control this game.  Look for Jerel Worthy to be in beast mode.  Also, as mentioned above, I like the play action set up in this game.

Thrillinois

His name is Mercilus. Hopefully someone can block him.

Michigan plays Illinois in a battle of struggling squads.  Michigan is 1-2 in their last three and the Illini have dropped their previous three games.  The Big Ten says "wahoo to that, let's make it the 3:30 game!"

Three Things to Watch for on Saturday

1) Illinois offense, do they have any?

The Fighting Illini have been really struggling to move the ball this season.  To me, this is terrifying since they scored over 60 points against the Wolverines last season in the Big House.  Michigan's defense is clearly improved, but Illinois has had a bye week to work out some of their kinks and will probably also have some new wrinkles installed for Michigan.  After losing three straight, coming off a bye, and playing at home, Illinois is likely to give one of their best efforts of the season.


2) Can Denard break a few big runs?

Robinson, for whatever reason, hasn't run much in the previous few games.  I'm not sure if he's nicked up and suffering from some sort of injury that we don't know about or if it has been a coaching decision to have him run far less than he was in September.  I do see him not looking as explosive and decisive in the running game as he's looked in the past, but he's still the most dangerous weapon Michigan has on the ground and his yards per carry bear that out.


3) Turnover Battle

This could be somewhat of a defensive battle and in those games turnovers and special teams make the difference.  The offenses need to be aided by a short field or a defensive or special teams score. Since turnovers come with a giant variance, who knows who has the edge here.  Hopefully it goes to Michigan.

Prediction

Home field advantage is important.  Illinois is playing in their backs against the wall type situation.  They are also coached by Ron Zook.  Those first two things scare me, the third brings some comfort.

20 - 17 Illinois

When it Rains You Get Wet

The hits keep coming.  This is Pearl Jam in the Early 90's.. Too old of a reference?  This is Katie Perry now.  Seriously everyone of her songs is a hit.  Regardless, I have even more MSU news.  Gary Harris has given a verbal commitment to MSU for the class of 2012.  Wow. What a week for college basketball in the state of Michigan.

ESPN has Harris as a 5 star, 97 overall, #1 SG and #10 overall prospect.  The big thing about Gary is that he attacks the basket. Both my driving to the rim and taking his defender on a dribble and pop.   Gary will score many different ways from inside the arc there's no doubt about that. Along with inside the arc, Gary can score from the three.  He is a little more streaky from three point range but is known as a legit threat from three.  Gary is listed at 6-4 195 pounds.  To go with that frame, Gary is very long which helps his defense.  Harris is a Tenacious D-fender.  Gary is able to d up his man one on one and shut it down with his length and athleticism.  Harris is also a very good football player which helps ability on the basketball court (sounds exactly like the kind of player Izzo likes).  Every recruitng site states that Gary is an elite talent that gets better and better as he plays more.

I will personally add that this is the exact player Izzo needed to get.  Along with Dawson, for this currents class, Izzo is on a recruiting tear.  Players with great length and supreme athleticism are the direction the college game and slowly the NBA are headed.  Just look at Kevin Durant - he's the perfect example.  (Or look at UNC's entire roster)

With the rest of the class, Matt Costello, Kenny Kaminski, and Denzel Valentine Izzo has a top 3 class in the country for 2012. 

Michigan may well be the State of basketball for the country.

For an even better writeup on the rest of the class go here: 2012 class
For video of Gary Harris, go here: Video

Thank you The Only Colors and Jay of Michigan Prep Stars for being better bloggers than I.

MSU vs. UNC

Well it is basketball season again.  Things should really spice up on this blog, or get way behind.  Of course we are playing on an aircraft carrier and at madison square garden against two top ten teams.  UNC is ranked #1.  Why cant we play one of these in the Yooper Dome - get a little home crowd advantage one time?

As mentioned, UNC comes in pre ranked #1 in the country.  With good reason.  Pretty much everyone from last year has returned.  This UNC team will run the floor with anyone in the country and use their length to defend, dunk and stymie opponents.    I am not looking forward to this game. I think UNC is gonna win by an easy 15.  Should not be close at any point except before tip off.  So how can MSU win this game?

The first thing we need to do is knock down three pointers.  This was something we were basically unable to do last year.  Literally.  Now Russel Byrd is actually playing and shooting at a healthy clip (for preseason).  We will need his ability to shoot it to keep us in this game.  With that,  new comer Brandon Wood lit up UNC in years past.   He is known as a scorer from the two/one guard and though he has not shown that at all in the preseason, his scoring ability, and ability to get to the rack can keep us in this game.  Along that same line, Keith Appling needs to be what he was in high school.  A nasty nasty scorer. Keith, get to the rim please,  when they collapse on you pass the ball and let our forwards shoot 12 footers all day.  I don't care if we lose by clanking 12 footers.  I will care if we lose by clanking quick threes and wasting possessions.  Finally and this is likely the most important way to win.  Travis Trice needs to have the best game hes had so far in his life.  Trice committed to MSU just days before five star all world recruit Brandon Dawson did.  Trice is our back up point guard and will get a lot of burn in this game.  We need him to have zero turnovers.  Yikes. 

Things to watch for.  The battle between Barnes of UNC and Dawson of MSU.  Dawson will see Barnes all game (with plenty of help D).  If Dawson can play well here, grab some boards of Barnes, and get his points, that will bode well.  Also, look for Nix to  be banging down low.  Payne is getting the start, but Derrick Nix looks like an absolute beast this year and has added a lot to his post game

 

(HOLY CRAP)

Outside of that I dont have a lot else to say since I havnt seen a single preseason game.  But here are a look at the Jeresey's we will be wearing,  the back will say USA instead of the players names.  UNC's are identical but they are Carolina Blue where ours have the gray.

 (not too bad)

Like I said, I don't predict MSU to win this game based on all the skill UNC has.  However, it would be nice to see some growth and see the skill our young young team has. 

Play Calling Vs Execution (Al Borges Edition)

Hank from Breaking Bad?

They could definitely be related.

The interwebs are aflutter with upset Wolverine fans blaming Michigan's two losses on Al Borges.

Many of these folks love themselves some spread offense and do not want to see Denard Robinson "wasted" in a pro-style or west coast offense.  Many blamed the loss to Michigan State on the play calling of Al Borges.

"He passed it too much in a trash tornado." (agreed)

"4th and 1 play action resulted in sack by MSU corner and was a terrible call"  (meh, I already offered my opinion on this one, threw rock against paper, it happens) 

"Michigan should be in the shotgun almost exclusively" (would their defense still be as atrocious as it's been in recent years?  And if they were able to execute, which should come in time, won't it benefit Michigan to have elements of both?)

When RR came to Michigan he failed to adjust his system to the talent he had, though to be fair, he didn't have a whole lot of talent.  Hoke, on the other hand, inherited the B1G offensive player of the year and a top 10 offense.  The offense is still scoring pts and putting up yards, but it feels like there is regression going on.  I do believe Borges is doing his best to utilize his talent.  The main issue is it's difficult to teach all the intricacies of a play you've never run or taught in your long history as a football coach.  Football isn't a sport where you simply draw something up and then implement it.  You dissect every player's movement down to each step, turn of the hips, etc.  Everything matters and is important.  The best coaches make sure these fundamental things are in place and hammered into their player's brains.  It becomes hardwired exactly how to do things perfectly.  This takes more than one off-season.

When you see Denard struggle and Michigan's offense having difficulties, it's not specific play calling but rather execution.  I know you can say that about nearly every play in football "just execute!"  But my point is that teaching all the fundamentals needed to allow a player to execute without thinking is a long and arduous process. 

Borges knows football.  He's a smart guy who is honest and thoughtful about his approach to the game.  You can see this easily by listening or reading the transcript of his press conferences.  He understands he has this shiny weapon that has the ability to torture defenses...but he's never used that weapon before.  He is adjusting to Denard just as much as Denard is adjusting to him.  It's been 9 games with some mixed results.  We are likely to see more mixed results in these final 3.  The key for me will be if we see progress.

The light bulb has yet to come on for Borges or Denard.  I still believe it can happen in time, hopefully it won't be too late.

Rivalry

This is the greatest rivalry in sports.  Joe Frazer died today.  Respect.  And in case you were wondering, both of these men would whoop Pacquiao and Mayweather.

New Commit!

Yay MSU got a new commit, Ezra Robinson. I cannot say I had read anything about him prior to his signing.  And have read just about as much afterwards.  There is little to nothing on him that you can read for free.  ESPN has nothing written on him (which I do have insider access too)  scout and rivals both offer nothing for free.  And if I know Pat, he wont throw me a bone here.  Apparently the scout moderators are as vicious as they are poor at rating players. 

So onto the rankings!  ESPN: 45 overall. Scout: 3 star #103 in position. Rivals: 3 star #51 position ranking. 

Ezra had offers from Georgia Tech, Minnesota, North Carolina, Wake Forest, USF, West Virginia, Illinois, and Clemson - among others.  Not too bad of an offer list.  I can only speculate as to why his rankings are low and usually that is a sign that he did not go to a lot of summer camps.  However, at 6 foot and 175 pounds and a 4.45 40 Ezra has the size and speed that Dantonio looks for in his DB's. 

That is #15 of the class in a great and tiny nutshell.  There should be some more coming soon. 

Re-Crap

I did not see that game going the way it did.  However, a win is a win and I will take it.

Some high lights?  Kirk Cousins, no picks, two touchdowns.  He did have some ill advised throws but nothing that hurt the team too bad.  And did you see how fired up he was on the sideline?  Love that.

William Gholston had 14 tackles a sack and 1.5 tackles for loss.  He is good.

Trenton Robinson had two interceptions, a pass break up and in general was good everywhere on the field.

Keyshawn Martin had a heck of a game with a career high in receptions.

Some low lights?  The running game.  We barely eeked over 100 yards.  Baker fumbled early and finished with only 8 carries total.  While Bell was the more effective back he finished with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns.  He showed some shiftyness he hasn't this year. 

Minneosta put up way too many points on us.  This is mostly a low light because there's no reason for Minny to put up that much.  However, Gray is a good QB and  learning the role more and more.  Jerry Kill will have them as a solid team.

Final low light.  The student section.  MSU students.  YOU SUCK.  I would expect that kind of crowd turnout if we were a 5 win team.  But we are not and we very well could win the B1G and go to the Rose Bowl.  The entire upper half of the student section was empty.  Yes, it was cold, yes it wasn't a marquee game, but you cannot do that and then rub our recent football success in others faces.  Because you yourself, student body are a giant failure.  The crowd in general seemed loud at times.  It is hard to tell on tv.  Maybe someone who was there can comment on that in the comments.  I sold my tickets to my cousin.  Again, student section, you SUCK.

MSU plays at Iowa next week at noon.  HOW THE HELL IS UM THE 2:30 GAME???? NO WONDER THEIR EGOS ARE SO LARGE, THEY KEEP GETTING FED.  Regardless, this Iowa game now looms large after Northwestern's upset of Nebraska. 

Look for a post tomorrow on MSU's most recent commitment on the football side, he was not on my top ten.

7-2 (4-1)

Disgusted

Michigan lost to Iowa.  It wasn't that difficult to see it coming.  I keep telling myself to put more credence into home field advantage and then I never do.  I've watched a game from the front row at Kinnick, the fans are literally two feet from the players and they are raucous.  Michigan played poorly, which is frustrating.  The defense did alright but the offense sputtered in the first half and didn't do enough in the 2nd half to overcome it.  Some questionable calls late, but the refs didn't decide the game.

It's difficult to win on the road in the Big Ten.  Michigan travels to Illinois this week in what should be another close, well fought game.  Hopefully they can overcome the road woes and pull out a victory.



The title of this post has nothing to do with Michigan's loss to Iowa and everything to do with the grand jury indictment against former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky as well as the PSU AD and another administrator.

You can read the gruesome details for yourself here.   And by gruesome I mean you're likely to be sick to your stomach.  If you don't want the details, here's the gist.

Penn State's defensive coordinator is alleged to have molested at least 8 young boys (ages 8-13) for over 15 years.  This began while he was still employed by Penn State and continued after he had retired.  What's interesting here is that the terms of his retirement granted him full access to the Penn State facilities and most of the victims claimed taking them to PSU games was an incentive the old man used to get close to them.

The main issues for those other than Sandusky arise in 2002, where a graduate assistant came back to the locker rooms late at night and found Sandusky in the showers with a 10 year old boy having sex.  The graduate assistant went to Paterno with this information, who in turn informed the AD.  After meeting the graduate assistant, the AD decided not to contact the police (which is required under Pennsylvania law) and concluded that they would take the big time action of not allowing Sandusky to bring small boys onto school property (something they have also admitted wasn't enforceable).

If these allegations are true, Joe Pa and anyone with knowledge of these actions should be run out of town today.  I don't care about his record as a coach or how long he's been there, this is inexcusable, abhorrent behavior.  I do not think this is an overreaction.  In fact, IMO this is far worse than what Tressell did.  Tress covered up an NCAA violation to protect his team and give him a better chance of winning and avoiding suspensions/sanctions.  Joe Pa (by not reporting this to police) helped conceal the sexual abuse of young boys.

For just a little background, I am currently a substitute teacher and a football coach.  For both jobs (this is in California) I completed abuse programs where they give you a detailed outline of exactly what to do when you witness child abuse.  There is a hotline, you contact the police.  These are the instructions even if you have no proof and simply suspect something is going on.  The instructions are clear and the steps are very simple to understand.  There is no grey area.  All educators know this.  Not contacting the proper authorities is a crime in most states. 

It's clear from the indictment that there was an attempt made to sweep this under the rug to protect the program and it's reputation, and for that, shame on everyone involved.  That's repulsive.

Here's an article from the Washington Post which I believe sums it up rather well.  

Some excerpts:

Joe Pa knew, if the charges are true.

They all knew.

And they never told police.

In Warped Sports World, the don’t-ask, don’t-tell, sweep-it-clean behavior is rationalized as loyalty, having your coach’s or teammate’s back, moving on from the problem. It’s seen as a noble quality, putting the team’s needs — the university’s needs — before your own.

Certainly it can be argued that Paterno and Penn State would have been irrevocably hurt if these allegations had surfaced in a police report almost 10 years ago; a program whose legendary defensive coordinator was accused of being a pedophile would lose recruits and, by association, money and prestige. Who wouldn’t want that to go away?

But more unconscionable, if true: putting loyalty to the many, the program, in front of the victimization of even the one, a child.

Menage a Trois

diddly diddly diddly SWAG

Ok.  I have come to terms with it.  I am an exceptionally mediocre blogger when it comes to the middle of week.  And I am terrible when it comes to predicting my three things.  However, I like my women how I like my game predictions three at a time. 

1: QB Play

How does Kirk respond?   Cousins had a MI-ddle of the pack, CH-allening, I-diotic play calling, G-igantic stink fest, AN-noying to watch as a fan when I know the level we should be playing at - quarterback play.  We will just leave it at that.  Gray is the key here.  MSU needs to key in on him.  The last three quarterbacks MSU has faces have been of the more fleet of foot type, the difference?  Gray is more physical than all of them.  He is bigger and badder.  When I say badder, I mean his passing game.  It is abysmal, though has been improving throughout the season. Look for MSU to pressure all game long and for Gholston to build upon his 15 tackle game against Nebraska.

2: Running Game

MSU pretty much gave up on the running game against Nebraska.  Maybe not gave up on it, but kept on forcing passes.  Not sure why, the coaching staff thought they could beat Nebraska deep, but even I, a mild mannered blogger, realized we were not beating Nebraska deep.  MSU needs to POUND GREEN POUND.  If Minny is able to stop our running game we could be in for a closer game than anticipated.

3: Special Teams

Kind of an odd one right?  I am expecting a big game from out return team as well as our kicker.  MSU is going ti put points on the board.  To do so, it will be necessary to score on field goals.  There is no denying the offense has been less than inspiring, but I expect at least two field goals....Along with that, look for short field position.  Nick Hill has an excellent return game going against Nebraska.  I expect Nick to continue that.  With that, Minny's kicker is pretty bland.  After missing a 26 yarder at home last week, MSU could shut the Golden Gophers outs in Spartan Stadium. 

UM won 58-0.  I do not expect that kind of affair tomorrow.  Look for MSU to win 37-10.  Or something like that. 

I-Owe-A Lot

I am finding it rather difficult to restrain optimism for Michigan in this game.  

Iowa is 5-3 and goes to bowl game every year!  (but they just lost to Minnesota)
Denard gives away interceptions like Halloween candy! (but Iowa just lost to Minnesota)
Michigan has struggled in their only two road games this year! (but Iowa just lost to Minnesota)
Iowa has won the last two meetings! (but they just lost to Minnesota) 
Iowa is so difficult to beat in Kinnick! (but they just lost to Minnesota) 


Did I mention they just lost to Minnesota?  

OK, so it was a rivalry game and maybe that game just goes to show you how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big Ten.  Iowa also might come out totally fired up and play their best game of the season...or maybe they just aren't very good. 


On to the show


3 Things and a Prediction

1) Running Wild (When Michigan is on Offense)

Iowa's defensive front isn't up to the standards of the normally stout unit that it has been the past several years.  This should be a huge advantage for Michigan's run game.  Iowa doesn't often vary out of their two deep look which should allow Denard and Toussaint to exploit the defense on the ground.  Look for Michigan to eclipse 200 yards rushing.   

2)  Running Wild (When Iowa is on Offense) 

If Coker rushes for 250 yards again, Iowa will win this game.  Michigan needs to limit Coker and put Vandenberg in 3rd and long situations.  Iowa always has a good offensive line.  This is a very good test for Michigan's defense.  Iowa is going to try to gain 3 yards on 1st and 2nd down and get into third and manageable.  If Michigan is stout against the run on 1st and 2nd down I'll be smiling.  

3) Road Denard

Robinson needs to be efficient and smart with the football.  He's not going to have a 100% completion percentage but if he manages the game Michigan will make plays on offense.  If Denard throws 2 or more picks Iowa will have a great chance to win the game.  

Prediction:

Iowa comes out with a lot of emotion and rides the home crowd to an early lead but Michigan's offense moves the ball relentlessly on the struggling Hawkeye defense.  Vandenberg makes enough plays to McNutt to keep it close into the 4th quarter. 

34-24 Michigan.  

So That Happened

Hello Mitch McGary

The #2 overall player in the class of 2012, Mitch McGary, joins Glenn Robinson III and Nik Stauskas giving Michigan three top 100 players and a top 10 ranked class for 2012.

This has been covered extensively on the internet so I'm not going to get into much about scouting McGary, you can find that all over the place.

The main point here is: Michigan basketball is relevant again.  I'm hoping for the Michigan-MSU basketball game at the end of the season to decide the Big Ten champion and who gets a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament and for the first time in about 15 years that hope isn't absurd, it's fully within the realm of the possible.  

(Sorry my coverage of this is a little lame and late.  I was off leading my football team to another victory, bringing us to 7-2 on the season, Go Rebs!)

For Your Reference

The division tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head
2. Division record
3. Record against the highest-placed team or teams in the division outside of the tie (ties not broken among these), on down to the bottom of the division
4. Record against common conference opponents
5. BCS standings, except that if the top two are one spot apart they are considered tied so see point #1

HT http://www.theonlycolors.com/

Wait Commit?

Jim Comparoni, on Twitter today, mentioned a little bit about 2012 football recruits.  The recruit in particular is Tevin Coleman.  He had visited MSU for the Wisconsin game. Which makes me want to list my top ten commits want list for the class of 2012.  Currently MSU has 14 commits and should settle in somewhere around 20.  So with about 6 scholarship spots left, here are the top 10 I would want to see going green.

1.  Adolphous Washington.  ESPN has him listed as high interest for us, along with Alabama and Ohio State.  Yikes.
2.  Monty Madaris.  Big bodied wide  with ball skills that would fit perfectly.
3.  Jordan Diamond.  All world offensive lineman, I bet he goes to Michigan.
4.  Jordan Diggs.  A safety with big time offers and MSU family ties.
5.  Kelby Latta.  A LARGE offensive lineman out of Michigan holding an offer from Wisconsin.  Be good to get an O lineman Wisconsin wants.
6.  William Mahone.  A bruising running back with speed to burn as well.
7.  Demetrious Cox.  An athlete out of Pennsylvania that would likely play safety,  Cox or Diggs would both be good gets.
8.  Bam Bradley.  Hard hitting defensive back.
9.  Darious Hamilton.  Big mean run stopper out of New Jersey.  I think we have a better chance of getting Jordan Diamond though...
10.  Derek David.  A good tackler with a large body already, would be a great run stopper.  But with our Tampa Two, he might need to learn to pass cover more. 

(all recruits listed have MSU as at least a medium interest on ESPN)

The top four I listed are the recruits I want MSU to get the most, in that order.  I think we will get two of those top four.  Namely, Madaris and Diggs.  However, Harlon Barnett has been recruiting Washington hard, is friends with his coach and a graduate of the same high school.  We might sneak in.  MSU needs offensive lineman, so getting Diamond and Latta would be great.  Latta looks to be a beast of a man.  Plus, I don't want Diamond going to UM.

Lets go to the Rose Bowl and wrap this recruiting class up.