In my last post I indicated that we know very little about the Wolverines in 2012. (other than not being in the same class as Alabama) This week provides a great chance to find out a lot more about where Michigan is at right now and where they are likely to finish at the end of this season.
A nice big disclaimer here that I do not believe in the transitive property of sports. If Michigan goes out and beats the Irish that doesn't mean anything definitive about the outcome in their showdown with the Spartans. This is especially true in college sports where emotion and match ups greatly affect the outcome of games. Still, a win in South Bend would have Michigan fans believing a Big Ten championship is once again the expectation. A lopsided loss and the Wolverines may be staring down a mediocre season in 2012.
Here's some questions that may be answered Saturday night...
1. Can Michigan's defensive line hold up?
They could not against Alabama, got cut against Air Force (but did OK) and then played UMass lol. This week is a true barometer for the D-line, get blown off the ball by the Irish and it's going to be a long season. Hold down the Irish rushing attack and things will be looking good for the Wolverines.
2. Can anyone other than Denard run the football?
This is mostly an offensive line issue, but Michigan needs to establish a rushing attack outside of Denard's legs. Toussaint had a decent game against UMass, but that was UMass lol. Michigan's offensive line has provided Denard with solid pass protection this season but needs to do better in run blocking and this game will tell us a lot about where our expectations should be in that area going forward this season.
3. Will a linebacker please step up?
Jake Ryan has been Michigan's best defensive player but the other starting linebackers (Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan) have seen their playing time usurped by true freshman James Ross and Joe Boldon. Morgan has been dinged up and sat out the UMass lol game but is expected back this week. It will be interesting to see if Michigan goes with their veterans in this game or if a switch to the freshman is in the cards for now and throughout the season. These two positions (MLB and WLB) are open and waiting for someone to sieze the spot, let's see if anyone can do that this week.
Heisman Thoughts
This is also a key game for Denard Robinson as I believe he still has a chance to win the Heisman trophy. The Alabama loss certainly stung his candidacy, but the season is long and other frontrunners have also had setbacks. Another huge performance in South Bend will see him shoot back up into the conversation here. A poor performance and a loss will see Denard out of the discussion for good.
Another interesting little thought about the Heisman is the hype that Braxton Miller is building and how it affects Denard's candidacy. If OSU enters the Michigan game with 9 or 10 wins and Miller is consistently in the Heisman discussion throughout the season it will provide a huge opportunity for the winner of The Game in Columbus. Say Denard is in the top five at that point and goes on the road and outplays Miller to clinch a berth in the B1G championship game, that would have a massive impact on Heisman voters. Still a long ways to go, but a scenario I could see potentially playing out.
FEI and other Metrics
We are only three games into the season so all statistical metrics have less validity but are interesting nonetheless. Here's a link if you need a quick brush-up on FEI.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Michigan is #49 in FEI
MSU is #21
(ND is #6, yikes)
Michigan is 42nd in Total Offense and 33rd in Scoring O
MSU is 60th in Total offense and 103rd in Scoring O
Michigan is 59th in Total D and 77th in Scoring D
MSU is 13th in Total D and 16th in Scoring D
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