Reduce Reuse Recycle Recap

Finally a win.  A win that MSU closed out.  That was nice to see.  I thought the MSU offense played well enough.  Obviously, it was not a great offensive show, but they were able to move the ball at times before ultimately doing something boneheaded.  Joe Rexode touches on that with his Monday Mail Bag.

 -I watched a good portion of the PSU/OSU game.  PSU played a solid game, but seemed to abandon the run game.  I think that ultimately did them in.  Not sure if Belton was injured or what.  Braxton was impressive in tearing apart a very good PSU defense.  That just might show how good the MSU defense actually is more than any other stat.

-From there, it was time to watch the um/Nebraska game.  I got to tell Pat about Denard's injury over the phone, that was about the most gratifying thing I have got to do this football season. Without Robinson, um was punchless.  The game wasn't really interesting outside of a few drives and seeing what um could do without Denard.  um fans will be pleased to know that Robinson will be the starter this weekend.

-To close out the game, Maxwell made one great pass after another and Bell was able to bounce around for 4-6 yard gains.  I think that our receivers may have finally turned a corner.  There was no Burbridge in this game, but that's OK.  Fowler is the man, and he showed it at times in this game.  Also, Lippet showed why I have been so high on him, from his sky high grab to his juke to the one yard line.  Personally, I really enjoyed seeing Thomas get some open field to run in.  A fumble certainly wasn't pleasant, but man, I would not want to tackle him.  The defense was really stout in this game as well.  MSU was able to hold Wisconsin to 19 yards rushing (net) and 190 yards total.  Gholston finally had a game that MSU has needed all year with 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack.  Along with that, one hit knocked Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave out of for the season with a broken clavicle.

This play below, I remember seeing and screaming at the T.V.  It did not get called.

(mary langenfeld, uspresswire. via twitter of chris vannini)

I still don't think that the Wisconsin defense is that great.  One play in particular stuck out in my head on a pass deflection to a mostly wide open Bell.  Other than that, I think MSU mostly killed their own drives.  Don't get me wrong, they are a good defense, but the B1G features a handful of better defense's.

Next week MSU has Nebraska at home.  A game I will be at.  Maybe I can get some pictures from the game and any sort of EL related activities I do on here.  Sound good?

Singing Tough - A Prediction

As Pat noted in the comments, I forgot to get my preview up.  Blame it on the rain.  Or staying out way later than anticipated. Today MSU is playing in a game labeled as a rivalry.  However, MSU and Wisconsin will not meet again for 4 years, unless they are in the B1G championship game.

OFFENSE:  Same story different day.  Just like every game I say, MSU needs to get the ball early and score on that first drive.  The crowd in Wisconsin is gonna be as loud as they have been all year.  Halloween weekend.  I do not see Bell having a good game in this one.  But MSU will look to get him going early and too often. MSU will need to go airborne to win this game and score points.  I like the matchups our receivers have against the Wisconsin secondary.  Wisconsin has not been too impressive defensively and Maxwell should look to get Sims going early.  Can our re-re-re-re-re-revamped line hang tough?

(the new starting offensive line)

DEFENSE:  L-I-V-I-N that's what our defense needs to do.  Just keep on keeping on.  Whatever else you can say.  There have been some writings about the defense, that there is potential for a divided locker room.  With the defense playing so well and the offense playing so poorly.  I don't see that happening, and I don't see the defense letting up.   Gholston will play his best game of the year and our defense will do a good job of limiting Montee Ball. 

PREDICTION:  The story here isn't how well our defense can play it's how many points can our offense score?  Right now, there is no reason to believe they will score any points.  Call it 20-13 Wisconsin.

Links for Zelda

Sorry, I couldnt think of a better way to name this post.  Still not in the mood for a full post, but expect my Wiscon prediction tomorrow.  Here are some MSU related links:

Recruiting: Ex-Michigan commit David Dawson likely to visit Michigan State
-Seems like a solid recruit, would be nice if he came to MSU.  Pat, do you have any insight as to why he decommitted?

Michigan State 'better be ready to play every game' to reach a bowl
-My sentiments exactly. 

Michigan State, Wisconsin rivalry still strong
-Would we call this a rivalry at this point?  Will it still be one if they thump us by 2 scores?

Michigan State hope Dion Sims can lift struggling offense From The Detroit News
-We could have used Dion last week.  We did look a lot better throwing the ball without him though.

MSU's Max Bullough nominated for Butkus Award as nation's top linebacker From The Detroit News:
-I still cannot believe he played for Traverse City St. Francis.  I know Pat wants him to leave early.

Game Week Q&A: Bucky's 5th Quarter
-Chris Vannini and TOC have a little Q&A with their partner Wisconsin blog. 

Enjoy your Thursday everyone, hopefully the Tigers even it up tonight.

Recalibrate

Often times following a football game a few sayings get thrown around.  The game may have been "closer than the final score" or "not as close as the score indicated".  Michigan's 12-10 victory was exactly as ugly and hard fought as the score indicated.  Both teams had chances to win and Michigan made the plays in the last five minutes to win the game.  Heading into the season we reviewed these teams as being very evenly matched and coming out of their showdown it appears they were evenly matched indeed.  Michigan State's defense has what it takes to hold down Denard Robinson but this season Denard hard what it took to do just enough to win the ballgame.

This is Michigan.

Some game wrapping thoughts:

• Is Max Bullough getting NFL buzz yet?  Meaning, can he please leave for the NFL after this season?  Despite the hype surrounding William Gholston and Johnny Adams coming into the season, Bullough is clearly the best player on the Michigan State defense.  
• Burbridge, as a true freshman, is one of the most dangerous wideouts in the B1G.  I'm terrified of what he's going to do the next two seasons before he's off to the NFL after his junior year. 
• Great call on the fake punt by Dantonio.  Michigan never does much on punt returns anyway so there's really no excuse for giving up 40 yards there. 
• 900 wins.  641 wins.  You can guess the programs those belong to.
• Jake Ryan is better than William Gholston.  In fact, this needs its own section...

In the preseason this became a bit of a debate.  Let's review some of the writing we did in the preseason about the defenses.
Our esteemed commenter Trivialstuff made this little comment:

"Gholston needs to be more consistent, but UM doesn't have a guy with his ability to be disruptive when he is playing up to his potential". - Trivalstuff in August

Being a little more bullish on one particular Michigan defender I responded:

"I think Jake Ryan has the ability to as disruptive as Gholston. In fact I think they have had very similar careers to this point. Inconsistent seasons in 2011 culminating in a big performance in a bowl victory". - Pat in August

And Tbone concluded:

"He may have the ability to be as disruptive at some point in his college life. but to this point they are very different. And even last year they were very different. Gholston has 70 total tackles, 16 tackles for loss and 5 sacks last year versus Ryan's 37 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. The big difference there is the total tackles. Gholston can get to the sideline and extend the Dline better than any defense end in the B1G.

I would not trade the two straight up." - Tbone in August

Would you trade the two straight up now?  In this game Ryan had 10 tackles (8 solo), a forced fumble (MSU recovered) and a sack.  I certainly would not trade Ryan for Gholston.  
 
This rivalry should only continue to heat up from here for the next few seasons.  There aren't any blowouts on the horizon in the near future.

Other than ending the Spartans season in October, this victory means a lot for Michigan for the rest of the 2012. Heading into the season most pundits had Michigan State pegged as the favorites to win the Big Ten championship.  Following Michigan's 12-10 victory on Saturday those expectations are recalibrated and the Wolverines are now the clear favorites to win the Legends division.  (Wisconsin is probably the Vegas favorite to win the B1G as they are virtually already locked into the title game)  Michigan moves on to a game in Lincoln this week that will be extremely tough while the Spartans have to travel to Madison to face a rapidly improving Badger squad.  The Spartans will be trying to right the ship and move a game closer to becoming bowl eligible while the Wolverines will be looking to take a commanding position in the Legends race.  It's another big weekend in college football.

After 8 weeks here's how things stand in the B1G:

1. Ohio State - I'm tempted to move them down after they keep squeaking by marginal teams.  It's going to catch up with them soon with a loss.  Their defense appears to be extremely down from Ohio State defenses of old.

2. Michigan - The leader of the Legends.  Undefeated in B1G play.  This week may be the last obstacle to get by to ensure a trip to Indy.

3. Penn State - I won't ignore you any longer Nittany Lions.  Impressive beatdown of the Hawkeyes at Kinnick.  Hosting OSU this week in what promises to be their best chance for a statement victory in 2012.

4. Nebraska - Can vault up to #2 on this list with a victory at home on Saturday.  Taylor Martinez is playing well (especially at home) but the Blackshirt defenses is a sieve.  If they could stop anyone they could be the class of the B1G.

5. Wisconsin - All of a sudden the loss to Oregon State doesn't look so bad.  Maybe Wisconsin played the Big Ten's 2nd toughest non conference schedule.  Badgers are back in familiar territory leading the Leaders division.  They'll be trying to improve each week before their inevitable Rose Bowl play-in game in Indianapolis.

6. Northwestern - Led by double digits in the 4th quarter in losses to Penn State and Nebraska.  This team will be in a battle in every game they play.

7. Michigan State - Sitting at 4-4 it's difficult to find a place for the Spartans but their only truly disappointing loss was at home to Iowa.  Otherwise they have suffered heartbreaking close losses to good teams.  ND is #5.  OSU in the top 15 and Michigan moving up the BCS standings.  A pretty good team with a much worse record than the last two seasons.

8. Iowa - I don't think these guys are very good, especially without Mark Weisman.

9. Minneosta - Will be clawing to win a couple games for a bowl berth in year 2 of the Jerry Kill era.

10. Purdue - Wasn't this team a supposed B1G title contender 3 weeks ago?

11. Indiana - Much improved from last year but not improved enough to beat any B1G teams yet.

12. Illinois - You fire Ron Zook and appear to be a more poorly coached team the following season.  Not a good time to be an Illini fan. 

The State of State

Right now, I cannot even pretend to have anything to be happy about for the Spartans.  OK...OK, I can be happy about the defense.  We have the best defense in the B1G.  We hold the Michigan offense without a touchdown, and lose though.  This makes me very sad.  So where are our Spartans right now?

Well, to cover the obvious stuff, MSU is 4-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference.  Winning out would put MSU at 8-4 and 5-3 in the conference.  After the first half of the season ended, I projected this is where we would end up. 

Right now, the offense is playing like a team that's uneven.  At times our running game looks good, at time our passing game looks good, at times our blocking looks good.  Rarely do they all synch up together.  I will contribute a lot of this to the injured offensive line.  The lack of continuity has made it hard to develop a pattern and trust in the trenches.  I has been great at developing younger players though.  So look out 2013!  The line play dictates a lot of what you can do in the run game, Bell has managed a solid season with some highlight reel plays.  He seems to get three yards every time he touches the ball.  The problem is, he has not been gashing defenses for HUGE chunks of yards.  This could be a product of being used too much.  After injuring his knee against UM, Bell called to come out, he did not, got the ball for the next carry, and promptly stumbled after the handoff.  We need Caper to get the ball sometimes.  Lastly for offense, once the receivers starting dropping the ball nothing good could  happen.  Now that they are catching the ball and making athletic plays doing it, we might finally see some points scored.

A lot has been said about the defense and their inability to close out games.  But when you hold teams to 12, 19, 16, you need to win those games.  I don't care if you gave up one last drive at the end, you stopped plenty more before that.  The worst thing I can see from this is that defense gives up its edge.  MSU can rely on it's defense for only so long.  I cannot find a lot of words for our defense, they have done a great job all year.  A few more turnovers would be nice, but I will take so few touchdowns allowed. 

Right now, MSU has a huge game looming against Wisconsin.  This is the game where blocking, running and passing need to link up and show some muscle.  After that we have Nebraska at home (which I will be at).  Go 2-0 over these games and get to the bye (off?) week.  To me, MSU is still a bowl team, it would be a real shame to not make one.  So that is where MSU is right now, a lot of unbalanced performances from the offense, solid play from the defense, and a deflated blogger. 

It Was Time

Boop.

There's always basketball season 'lil bro...

Might have some real thoughts when it's not 2:30 in the morning but for now let's enjoy the Brendan Gibbons background and the sweet taste of victory washed down with Spartan tears.

MSU/um Prediction

So here we are.  The Apex of hate week, or is this the down fall?  Or is the game the Apex?  I'm not sure, regardless tomorrow, tomorrow is the day.  House vs. House.  Brother vs. Sister. Blogger vs. Blogger. After Saturday, there will be a new background here on the blog as Pat and I have an going wager that the blogger winner gets to pick the new background. I don't want to lose this. 

OFFENSE:  Well, where to begin.  First of all, we need to score. That is probably the biggest thing for MSU, but how do we get there?  Bell needs to get going and he needs to get going early.  MSU has no room for error early in the game.  This um fan base is rabid for a win over MSU, that way they can wave it in our face and say things in an East Coast accent.  The whole of the MSU offense needs to have a stellar game.  The offensive line needs to block, the receivers to need to be crisp and fast, and our running backs need to be bruising.  Up front is where this game will be decided.  The MSU line is depleted and has been performing that way.  um will look to get in and attack Maxwell, so the line needs to perform.  With that, I do expect MSU to put together some drives to start, with Burbridge coming ready and Caper providing a nice option for Maxwell in the pass game out of the backfield.

DEFENSE:  So far, the MSU defense has played well.  If our offense kicks a field goal in the games against OSU and Iowa, we likely win. The last two games against michigan, the MSU defense has been able to limit Denard.  Pat calls them the worst games Denard has ever played.  I guess he forgets about Notre Dame and Alabama this year.  However, that is the  key to beat um.  Limit the plays the Denard is making.  In the past, Norman has been very successful in beating Denard to the edge and, when needed, getting into coverage across the middle.  This year, Norman appears to have bulked up and lost a step, losing a lot of playing time to Taiwan Jones.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, but is still the key.  We need our outside linebackers to be able to bottle up the rushers and defend against those short passes that make a drive. Opportunities for Denard to throw the ball down field will be there, it would be foolish for this offense to not take its chances.  The front 7 needs to make Denard uncomfortable in the pocket, keep him guessing as to where to run, where to throw.  Like the offense, the Defense needs to be flawless. If there is an opportunity for the interception, there cannot be a drop.  When tackling, an arm tackle will not work. 

PREDICTION:  So far, I have predicted MSU to win every game this year.  Do you see a pattern?  I like our chances, in this game, but I like our chances in every game. With this defense how could you not like our chances?  However, with this offense how can you ever pick for us?  Currently michigan is a 10 point favorite.  Is that too high?  I fully expect the um offense and defense to come hyped for this game.  michigan will likely have its first lively crowd since 90's.  As I mentioned, MSU needs to get into this early. Now is the time to shake off the slow starts and silence this um crowd.  Let our friends over in ann arbor know that we own this State now.  Look for these teams to throw a few punches early before settling into a groove.  However, this MSU offense is not nearly good enough to score enough points to win.  I am gonna call this one: 24-20 um.

Q/A with Chris Vannini

Pat learned so much in school at Michigan that I have to post for him.

 

Here is a Q/A with Chris Vannini, the managing editor of the MSU blog The Only Colors.  You can follow Chris on twitter at @chrisvannini

Below, Pat's questions for Chris will be in bold/blue.  

5 serious questions concerning Saturday:

1. Last season Michigan State had some injury issues on the offensive line and I believe ended up starting either former walk-ons or guys who recently switched over from the defensive line.  While the line had some issues early in the season things seemed to really come together as the year went on (especially in the Michigan game)  I went into the game last year thinking MSU's Oline was a train wreck only to watch them dominate the line of scrimmage against a pretty stout Michigan defensive line.  Can they do that again or are the issues this season much worse than last year? 
 

It's hard to tell. This year's team has lost the top two linemen in center Travis Jackson and right tackle Fou Fonoti, and struggled mightily against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They even had problems against Eastern Michigan and Indiana. They seem to be getting a little bit better overall, having a decent, but not great, performance against Iowa. Based on what I've seen, Michigan's defensive line has gotten close to where it was last year, while the linebackers are a lot better. If MSU wants to spring any big runs, they're going to need to get some blocks in the second level, something they've struggled to do this year.

2. The Spartans have faced Denard Robinson as the starter twice in his career and twice he has played arguably his worst game of the season against Michigan State.  For all his stats and accomplishments, is Denard Robinson overrated?    

He's not overrated, at least not in my opinion. That may be because I haven't considered him a legitimate Heisman candidate outside of the start in 2010. That said, he is what makes college football great. So many different schemes, types of players and whatnot. The NFL is basically the same bland stuff (which is why Michael Vick is overrated). College football is full of variety, and it's always fun to see competing ideals and strategies face off. Denard Robinson won't be a quarterback in the NFL. That doesn't mean he's not a good college quarterback. He picks up yards and wins games (mostly without any help). Yeah, he has struggled against most of the best opponents he has played, but that's the case with many players. MSU rarely runs the ball well in its big games. He is what he is. He's electrifying, he's frustrating, but he's what college football is all about.

3. Other than the emphasis placed on the rivalry by the coaching staff, is there a schematic reason Dantonio has been so successful against Michigan?  And as a follow up to question #2, is there a schematic (or other) reason that Pat Narduzzi's defense has owned Denard and Michigan's offense the previous two seasons? 

The blueprints to stop Denard Robinson are there, but only a few teams have the personnel to get away with them. Alabama sat back and let Denard use his arm, while MSU puts him under tremendous pressure. It's schematic, but only because they have the players to do it. Most teams can't get away with what MSU or Alabama do on defense. Pat Narduzzi's first few defenses at MSU were really bad, but once he got his players in, they fit the bill, and the schemes that seemed so bad now seem so good. There certainly are weakness. There are no perfect defenses, but with a limited offense like Michigan's, you can cover up the holes easier.

4. Cracks in the D...while the overall numbers look good it seems like MSU's defense has had difficulties making the key play or stop in the 4th quarter.  While there might be a few explanations (maybe they are on the field longer and for more possessions due to the offensive ineptitude?) is there an issue with the defense?  As it pertains to this Saturday, do you believe MSU's defense is better, the same, or worse than the version last season that faced the Wolverines?

I'm in the camp that isn't putting much heat on this group. They're actually giving up fewer yards and points than a year ago, although obviously the opposition is weaker. They've given up second-half leads to Ohio State and Iowa, but allowing 17 and 13 points in regulation, respectively, should be enough to win. If MSU has just an average offense, the few mistakes on defense aren't as noticed. 

The defense isn't as good as last year, no. It's for a variety of reasons (and I don't think "press clippings" are one of them). Other teams have figured out how to scheme against Narduzzi (like you would with anything you see every year), the pass rush isn't nearly as good, and the blitzes are getting picked up more. The rush from the line has been slow to develop, as Jerel Worthy isn't there to blow up a play before it starts. Still, this is a top-10 defense in the country. That's plenty good enough. They need help.

5. Is MSU is capable of beating Michigan on Saturday if they don't win the turnover battle?  

Sure, as long as it's a close difference. If one of the turnovers is in your own red zone or a pick-six or something, that obviously will go a long way toward a victory. They can win without a turnover edge, but they just can't be crippling turnovers. I don't think it will be a high-scoring one. Iowa's turnover last week on their side of the field lead to a TD, while MSU's turnover ended the game. So it's all about the context. That seems like a simple answer, because it is.

And 3 fun questions about the rivalry in general:

1. Throughout your Spartan fandom and when it comes to playing Michigan, which loss was the most crushing?
 

I have to admit, I was a U-M fan growing up until high school. I didn't have a real reason for it, but I grew up in suburban Detroit, and that's just what everyone was back then. I started to switch when I realized I wanted to go into writing, and U-M didn't have a journalism school. To my surprise, U-M didn't admit me anyway, and that made my college choice much easier. (Long story as to why I wasn't admitted, but I don't need to get into it. Ended up being the best thing to happen to me). So my choices on this are limited to one game: 2007, my freshman year. 

That had been a frustrating year with all the close losses, an you began to wonder how much different the Mark Dantonio era would be from JLS. We obviously all know what happened that night. After MSU went up by 10, I told the guy in front of me to double Mario Manningham all night. Don't let him pull a Braylon. He sorta did, and then all the stuff afterward. After not getting into the school (even if I wasn't going to go anyway), it was a punch in the gut. I had some U-M friends, they let me have it, and that might have been my christening as a Spartan fan. Still the worst loss I've gone through. What Mark Dantonio had to say in the next few days showed me that things weren't going to continue the way they were. And he was right.

2. Which Victory over the Wolverines has tasted the sweetest? 

It's close between 2008 and 2010, but I'm going to go with 2010 because of the hype leading up to it. Breaking the losing streak in 08 was more a sense of relief than anything. In 2010, with the Denard Robinson Heisman talk and the "Michigan's back" blah blah blah stuff, shutting people up was definitely the sweetest victory. I was sitting next to a major douchebag at that one, and when he left after the third quarter, the party began. We were surrounded by mostly MSU fans, so we had some fun with cheers and taunts and everything. An old lady called me the best fan of the game. So that was cool.

3. Would you trade winning the B1G for beating Michigan?  Or put another way, how much does the success of every season hinge on the game with the Wolverines?  

No way. Times have changed. The days of a win over U-M making the season are long gone. That's because the expectations have changed. MSU expects to make a good bowl game, expects to compete for the Big Ten championship and expects to be right there with Michigan every year. It's certainly treated unlike any other game, but in the last two years, you celebrate the win, then move on and continue fighting for a Big Ten championship. Their hopes of winning the Big Ten are all but dashed this year, but the U-M game can still be a turning point toward a decent season. A win Saturday wouldn't make up for the three losses already, but the hope is it would help right the ship.

Michigan Wins

Because:

- This is Michigan fergodsakes

- Big brothers everywhere will not stand for five in a row

- Sparty No!

- Michigan tradition > MSU "tradition" Just saying the phrase MSU tradition is lol comical.

- Michigan fans > Moo U fans.  Call us Walmart all you like but at least we will attend games.

- Aggies ha

- Winged helmets, The Victors and The Big House vs. a cartoon mascot and the movie 300.

- Mark Dantonio embodies the Sparty inferiority complex

- Brady Hoke is a true Michigan man and those dudes stomp Sparty skulls

- Finally Kirk Cousins is gone, maybe the greatest Spartan football player of my lifetime and a guy who was very difficult to dislike.  Now it's guys like William Golston leading those thugs.  He's the anti-Cousins.  Easy to hate that guy.

- Taylor Lewan owned Golston last year anyway.

- If we have tornado winds in the Big House this year there won't be trash flying all over the place because Michigan's stadium isn't a landfill like Spartan Stadium.  Crazy that so few fans can produce so much trash. Srsly Spartans, go to WALMART and buy some trash bags you slobs.

- Ann Arbor > East Lansing

- Menna's takes too long to deliver at 2:30am

- Arrogance is a learned behavior that emanates from being the winningest program of all time.  Bitching about the arrogance of your big brother is a conditioned response to losing so damn much.

- Even our basketball program is ranked higher than yours HALOL

- How many Michigan graduates were accepted to MSU?  Answer: all that applied.

- Oh yeah it's a football game we're talking about.  We are better at football than you this year.

- Your defense was overrated coming into the season.

- Your offense was MASSIVELY overrated coming into the season.  Your offensive line is like Indiana level bad.

- You lost at home to Iowa.  They lost at home to Central Michigan.

- We have the best runner in the BIG.  Mr Denard Robinson.

- Jake Ryan is the best defensive player in the game.

- >100,000 is no big deal to us but Maxwell might pee.

- It is time.

24-13 Michigan

The Facts: Statistics

Michigan's Season to Date
4-2
vs Alabama 41-14 L
vs Air Force 31-25 W
vs Massachusetts 63-13 W
@Notre Dame 13-6 L
@Purdue 44-13 W
vs Illinois 45-0 W

Michigan State's Season to Date 
4-3
vs Boise State 17-13 W
@Central Michigan 41-7 W
vs Notre Dame 20-3 L
vs Eastern Michigan 23-7 W
vs Ohio State 17-16 L
@Indiana 31-27 W
vs Iowa 19-16 L

Offense
Rushing O
Michigan: 17th (233)
Michigan State: 84th (144)

Passing O
Michigan: 104th (186)
Michigan State: 59th (236th)

Turnovers Lost
Michigan: 13
Michigan State: 8

Total O
Michigan: 55th (419)
Michigan State:  80th (380)

Scoring O
Michigan: 37th (34 points per game)
Michigan State: 102nd (21)



Defense
Rushing D
Michigan: 55th (148)
Michigan State: 8th (91)

Passing D
Michigan: 3rd (135)
Michigan State: 17th (179)

Turnovers Gained
Michigan: 10
Michigan State: 10

Total D
Michigan: 10th (283)
Michigan State: 7th (270)

Scoring D
Michigan: 23rd (18)
Michigan State: 14th (16)


When Michigan has the ball:
The #55 offense will be facing the #7th defense.  This will be a battle of strength on strength as the #8 rush defense attempts to slow down the #17 rushing offense.  MSU appears slightly more susceptible through the air while Michigan's offensive numbers in the passing game don't look so hot.  Sparty hasn't been able to create many turnovers on D this year (10 in 7 games) while Denard gave Notre Dame the ball 5 times in one contest.  This statistical battle points to the Spartans defense having an edge over the Wolverine offense.

When Michigan State has the ball:
The #80 offense will be facing the #10 defense.  Michigan's defense boasts gaudy numbers in pass defense (probably helped playing Air Force who rarely threw the football) while the MSU offense is surprisingly worse in the run game (84th) than in the pass game (59th).  Michigan has also been poor at creating turnovers on defense this year (only 10 through 6 games) and the Michigan State offense has done a relatively good job in this area only turning the ball over 8 times. This comparison shows a big advantage for the Michigan defense against the struggling Spartan offense.


Thoughts:

These stats look pretty good to a Michigan fan.  The defenses appear to be about on the same level and Michigan's offense is clearly better statistically than the Sparty O.   Turnovers are my biggest worry for Saturday. It's difficult to envision Michigan creating more than 1 or 2 and Denard scares me versus good defenses.  If we get good Denard, the version who takes care of the football and doesn't try to make a play on every play, the guy who runs and runs and only throws it to wide open receivers, I don't see many scenarios working in the Spartans favor.  Denard, however, hasn't proven that he can do this very consistently and thus we wait with bated breath.

Weekend Recap

So I didn't watch as much college football as I normally would with the Tigers playoff game against the Yankees.  I did catch all of the Spartan game and did watch a portion of the UM game, until you know, it was apparent that game wasn't turning around for the Illini

- The Wolverines certainly appear to be the team to beat in Legends division.  The offense is firing on all cylinders at this point after games against Purdue and Illinois.  Even though those are not the strongest teams in the conference, these are the games you need to put points up in and get all the mojo going.  Those previous two weeks were the perfect games leading up to the MSU game.  Toussaint finally got going along with Robinson the pass game game looked solid enough and the confidence could not be higher for the Wolverines. 

- On the other end of the spectrum are my Spartans.  In a rain soaked game the Spartans managed a measly  16 points against an exceptionally mediocre, though leading the Legends division, Iowa Hawkeye team (back handed compliment of the week).  I don't really have a lot to say but I will.  Early on, Bell got moving pretty well, the defense looked like they were ready to play and the Spartan's appeared to be on their way to rolling the Hawkeyes.  Unfortunately, that did not happen.  Maxwell missed a few passes, one in particular was sailed over Burbridge in the endzone.  Burbridge maybe could have done more to wiggle open, but without a doubt, had Maxwell thrown that ball into his body, that was a touchdown.  Of course, there was the end of the first half botched field goal.  After a couple nice plays to get the ball into FG range, all things brokw down.  Players were running on the field, some were running off, Bell tried to clock the ball, then the half was over.  In a way, that play has summarized the Spartans play so far this year.  Some great plays, followed by a mess, and then hoping Bell can carry us.

Getting to a bowl game at this point looks like it will be a struggle.  I have to imagine the MSU team is very deflated coming into UM and there is no doubt that the Wolverines are ready.  Right now, that looks like it will end up being an ugly game. I said we should go 4-2 for the secong half, already we are are 0-1.  We need this win against UM.

 

(Just because its hate week.  Bite me.)

Worst Student Section

This is via Matt Charboneau's Twitter.  MSU has the worst fans in the B1G.  I do not care if it is raining.

 

Bowl Game?

I hope the players like this come December:

 

Its time to abort the season.  

MSU vs. Iowa re: Abortion or not?

So here we are, the halfway point.  MSU has gone 4-2 (1-1) up to this point. I think that finishing the second half at 4-2 would equal a satisfactory season.  Especially if one of those 4s was over UM. But up next?  MSU has their old? nemesis.  One of the best games I have ever been to at Spartan Stadium was 2009 against Iowa.  That was the first college football game I took my dad to. I am not sure he knew what to expect.   It was a night game and a sold out crowd of 75,000.  We entered Spartan Stadium a bit early to see the band and the team enter.  About 2 minutes in he yelled that there was so much energy, I responded with "WHAT?!?".  That was a fun/loud game.

OFFENSE:  Burbridge had a coming out party last week to the tune of 134 yards.  Burbridge very well could be the saviour of this passing offense, this week could establish that.  However, the Iowa defense has been coming along lately and they seem to have a team that was built to stop our offense.  Up front, they can take the blows of a big back like Bell.  So what should we look for?  Well I think the MSU team is going to look to establish the run as they always do.  Off of that they will run some juke plays off of a run formation.  This offense has been so predictable it is necessary to run some flea flickers, half back option passes, double fakes.  Anything to create a little wrinkle, but not too much because we want this next week: 

 

DEFENSE:  They need to continue what they have been doing. Williamson showed a lot of speed as a safety and could be the guy from here on out.  Anything that helps the corners over top.  On too many pass plays this year, a safety has blown a read and left the corners way too isolated.  That wont happen this week.  Another change has been Taiwan Jones over Chris Norman.  Norman, right now is more of a bruising presence.  In past years he has shown more speed, as I wrote about in our position breakdowns.  Now Jones is stepping up and showing that speed.  This position will depend on the team.  I expect Norman to get more PT against the big RB that Iowa has.   Right now Gholston needs to flip a switch and I fully expect that.  Look for two sacks from Gholston and a hand-full of plays in the backfield. 

On the whole, this is a game MSU has to win or it could be a season we need to abort.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.  Sometimes you make mistakes and you need to correct those.  I hope that all the flaws MSU has shown they are learning from.  They certainly showed some fire in the second half against Indiana.  There cannot be any player expecting to roll from here on out.  Personally, I feel fairly optimistic about this game and that is mostly due to Brubridge.  I am a huge wide reciever fan and believe they dictate a game more than any other skill position.  He could be our guy.  If he is, we win.  Look for a Burbridge touchdown in the rain along with a lot of power from Bell.  Call it 24-14 MSU.  

(you're welcome Pat for the title)

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Tbone and I did a comparison in the preseason breaking down the individual units of each team and made some predictions.  With the big rivalry game only a couple weeks away we now have a lot more information about where our predictions stack up.

Looking Back

The Comparison: Offense

Summary:

QB: Michigan (Big)

• Despite Denard's major issues in South Bend this prediction appears true.  Maxwell has looked pretty solid and appears to have major upside but Robinson has been dominant on the ground in all of Michigan's wins.  Let's say this prediction was accurate though maybe we should erase that (big).

RB: Push

• Ha.  Le'veon Bell has proven himself to be the best back in the B1G while Fitz Toussaint hasn't really gotten going yet this season.  This is a big advantage for the Spartans through the first half of the season. 

WR/TE:  Tbone says Push, Pat says Michigan

• Dion Sims dominance and Aaron Burbridge's emergence notwithstanding this comparison solidly goes to the Wolverines so far.  Jeremy Gallon has proven to be a legitimate go-to slot, Devin Gardner has emerged as a big play WR and Devin Funchess has exploded onto the scene as an absolute mismatch.

OL: Tbone says Push, Pat says Michigan

• MSU has been ravaged by injuries along the offensive line.  This is probably the single most disappointing unit for the Spartans thus far in 2012.  Michigan's offensive line is coming off a dominant performance against Purdue which followed up an impressive 2nd half against the Fighting Irish. 
  

2012 Statistics:

Total Offense:
MSU: 79th, 389 ypg
UM:  73rd 397 ypg

Scoring Offense:
MSU:98th, 22 ppg
UM: 48th, 32 ppg

The Comparison: Defense

Summary:

DT:  PUSH (both teams have unknowns here)

• This is interesting.  Through the first three weeks of the season I would have easily said Michigan State has been better in this category but Michigan's defensive line has made massive improvements against Notre Dame and Purdue.  Their play has me very encouraged.  I haven't seen every snap for the Spartans but I'm going to say small edge MSU here. 

DE:  MSU

• While the Gholston hype hasn't translated to the field much, Marcus Rush has played well.  Michigan hasn't gotten a ton of statistical production from their defensive ends but they have gotten solid play from Craig Roh.  This is closer to a push than we thought in the preseason. 

LB:  MSU

• Jake Ryan has been an all-B1G performer and the best player on Michigan's defense.  After a slow start, Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan have come on in recent weeks (due in no small part to the improvements with the defensive tackles).  I believe that MSU has the best linebacker unit in the conference but Michigan's backers are much improved over recent years. We got this one about right and both have very good units here. 

Safety:   Split, Tbone gives it to his Spartans, Pat to the Wolverines.

• I have no idea how the Sparty safeties have played this season.  I like Jordan Kovacs and Thomas Gordon has been solid throughout the year.  

CB:  MSU (with the caveat that the nickel and the depth favor the Wolverines)

• Blake Countess went down very early in the season and the depth we spoke of came into play immediately.  Johnny Adams has had some ups and downs so far this season.  To date I'd say this has been a small edge for MSU but I could be persuaded otherwise. 

2012 Statistics:


Total Defense:
MSU: 8th, 272 yards per game
Michigan: 19th, 312 yards per game

Scoring Defense:
MSU: 15th, 15 ppg
Michigan: 37th, 21 ppg


Projecting the Future

Both of our squads have underachieved so far in 2012.  Michigan has done so by getting trounced by Alabama and having far too many turnovers in their other games while MSU has just plain struggled offensively.  The struggles have taken off a little luster from the matchup on October 20th but the game will still likely determine who heads to Indy to represent the Legends division.  Looking at the breakdown above it looks like a game that will be closely contested.  We will find out a little more this week and then get down to making some predictions next week.

I hope the Wolverine's don't have a letdown against Illinois on Saturday because they are looking ahead to the Spartans.  A a blogger I don't have to worry about that so I am free to look ahead to the game with the Spartans and man I'm getting excited...

Mustache Wars

44-13.  On the road in West Lafayette.  409 total yards for Michigan to just 213 for the Boilermakers.  Michigan is to Purdue as Alabama is to Michigan.  The only statistical edge Purdue had in the game was mustache awesomeness.

Glorious be thy stache

Denard Robinson remains the best runner in the Big Ten and the Michigan defense looks as though it may even be improved over last season's stout unit.  I haven't felt this good about the Wolverine's Rose Bowl chances since Appalachian State sauntered into the Big House.

Yes, I went there.  Michigan is the favorite to make the Rose Bowl.

The remaining schedule:

Illinois
MSU
@Nebraska
@Minnesota
Northwestern
Iowa
@OSU

Things could go south if they lose in two weeks to the Spartans and of course there is a lot of football left to be played but at 3-2 Michigan looks like a team destined for no worse than 8-4 and the team that is in the driver's seat to make the B1G championship game from the Legends division where they will face off against either Purdue or Wisconsin.  That sounds like a pretty nice opportunity to me.


Elsewhere in College Football

I saw the highlights of the Penn State - Northwestern game.  Seems like a great comeback win for the Nittany Lions.  Page me in 8 years when they are relevant again.  Still looks like a 7-5ish team to me.

I LOL'd to the Spartans score at halftime but figured they would pull it out.  Got to see bits and pieces of the 2nd half and it looked extremely encouraging for MSU.  Having only watched the 2nd half and seeing how completely dominant the Spartans were I'm guessing the first half was an exercise in frustration for Tbone.   I've been telling anyone who will listen how much I loved Aaron Burbridge as a prospect and whatdoyaknow he gets the start and is already MSU's best receiver.  +1 for pjh's recruiting obsession paying dividends in knowing thangs.

Quick rundown of the Big Ten

1. OSU - Anyone else feel sick to their stomach after seeing all the love the Buckeyes are getting on espn.com?  They deserve the #1 ranking here but they simply are not exceedingly better than everyone else.  They easily could have lost to the Spartans.

2. Michigan - IMO the clear favorites to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

3. MSU - They haven't really looked impressive for any extended stretch this season but who are you putting above them?

4. Nebraska - Clearly flawed on defense and not dominant enough on offense to overcome it. 

5. PSU - Moving up my rankings because they keep winning but I think they'd lose to all four teams above them on this list.

6. Wisconsin - They have issues but they are still your Leaders division favorites.

7. Northwestern - That defense is pitiful.  They are scary on offense and will beat some good teams this season.

8. Purdue - The hype comes before the massive letdown for Danny Hope and co.

9. Iowa - They lost to a bad Central Michigan team two weeks ago...

10. Minnesota - Got beaten soundly by a bad Iowa team.

11. Indiana - Offense is one of the best in the Big Ten but defense is probably the league's worst single unit.

12. Illinois - HaLOL

Season Implosion

MSU vs. Indiana

I am still working on my promised follow up to my post last week.  What does John Lennon say?  Life is what happens while youre busy making other plans.  Has there been a more anticipated week a more hotly debated week in MSU football since Dantonio took over?  Maybe the first year we played UM after the little brother game.  Maybe Last years B1G championship game.  Also, I hate these watch ESPN app commercials

OFFENSE:  This is why the weeks is anticipated.  MSU showed signs of life offensively against OSU even while scoring only 16 points.  Maxwell stayed poised in the pocket  delivered the ball on the money and for the most part his receivers  made plays.   With that, there is a new wrinkle  to the offense.  Aaron Burbridge was named a starter in place of the struggling Bennie Fowler.  KJ from the only colors thinks that this has a weird vibe.  I could not disagree more.  Aaron has come in as a highly recruiter wide receiver, Fowler has not been struggling to get it done.   Along with that, Dan Roushar has described Burbridge as being able to catch everything that is thrown his way.  That is exactly what we need.

DEFENSE:  Defensively, this MSU team has performed very well.  Like a keep saying, the defense is not going to win us games, we still need to score points. For this game at Indiana, MSU needs to come out ready to hit someone.  Gholston, this week, has given his play so far this year a "C". What is he going to do to change that?  Adams got beat on a perfectly thrown ball last week, will a play like that happen with a lesser quarterback?  For Gholston, look for him to be attacking,  I think he is hearing it from his coaches and is getting worked in practice, there should be a lot of effort out of him.  Look for Adams to have another strong game and even come up with an interception. 

Overall this is a game that MSU should end up winning comfortably.  To start, Indiana will move the ball well and tack on some field goals.  Opposing that will be the MSU offense and Burbridge.  I expect MSU to throw to him early and I think Indiana is keenly aware of that.  Look for Burbridge to be used a decoy for Bell to pop out on a little wheel route.  But what about Bell?  He had disappeared against OSU.  Bell will get going early as they use the run to set up the pass.  Bell should break the century mark and tack on some touchdowns in the second half.  Well call this game 28-13 MSU

Enigma

Up from the comments, here is Pat's first words on the blog in two weeks:  I shoulda brought my decoder ring.

Not belles soberon.

Michigan wins by two Tds.

Purdon't do football well but Robbie Hummel was legit.

Week 5 Re-Cap

Well another week has gone by.  And there are some truths this week out of college football.  Truth one, Michigan had a bye week. Truth two, I wish the NHL wasn't locked out. 

-I watched the Penn State game at a Penn State bar here.  The Penn State defense looks solid enough.  They had no problem locking down Nathan Scheelhaase. Mike Mauti is the best defender in the B1G. He is a game changing line backer, able to stop the run, track down scrambling quarterbacks, and cover receivers.  Along with that, Allen Robinson is the type of receiver every B1G team wishes they had.  He can get up and grab the ball in the air - once he has it, Robinson has no problem making defenders miss in the open.  I have watched a lot of Penn State this year they look solid. 

-For the Wisconsin/Nebraska game, I was not really sure what to make of that.  Montee Ball had 90 yards and 3 touchdowns but it took 32 carries to achieve that.  The defense as a whole for Wisconsin looked really poor.  Does that mean that the Nebraska offense is really potent?  They are no slouches that's for sure.  Martinez out rushed Ball and Burkhead had 86 yards on only 18 carries.

-Finally, MSU vs. OSU.  There were some positives to take away from this game.  The first is that the defense played really, they got some takeaways from a very good team.  They were hold Ohio State to long spurts with little offense.  The passing game made some strides as well.  Lippett did not look totally lost, Maxwell did not turn the ball over and Kings could be developing into a stud receiver. Of course there were some real negatives as well.  The running game was non existent.  With that, the offensive line looks really weak as well.  Travis Jackson broke his leg and will miss the remaining of the season.   Coupled with the fact that Fou Fonoti is also gone for what should be most or all of the year and suddenly the offensive line is our weakest part of the team. With the pass game making some strides, they also continued to drop really easy passes.  Fowler is not getting it done, the drops appear to be in his head.

I was a bit disappointed that we lost this game.  There was no reason to lose it. As my preview pinted out, we just need to score points. 16 wont win you a lot of games.  Of course there was also the Miller fumble that looked like a sure fumble recovery to touchdown. Instead of getting 7 points, we settled for 3.  What a game changer that was.

I know a lot of people think my previous post was over reacting but when you take our season so far, you can't really count any game at this point as a sure win.  Even if our two losses were against ranked teams.  More on that tomorrow.