Michigan's Season to Date
4-2
vs Alabama 41-14 L
vs Air Force 31-25 W
vs Massachusetts 63-13 W
@Notre Dame 13-6 L
@Purdue 44-13 W
vs Illinois 45-0 W
Michigan State's Season to Date
4-3
vs Boise State 17-13 W
@Central Michigan 41-7 W
vs Notre Dame 20-3 L
vs Eastern Michigan 23-7 W
vs Ohio State 17-16 L
@Indiana 31-27 W
vs Iowa 19-16 L
Offense
Rushing O
Michigan: 17th (233)
Michigan State: 84th (144)
Passing O
Michigan: 104th (186)
Michigan State: 59th (236th)
Turnovers Lost
Michigan: 13
Michigan State: 8
Total O
Michigan: 55th (419)
Michigan State: 80th (380)
Scoring O
Michigan: 37th (34 points per game)
Michigan State: 102nd (21)
Defense
Rushing D
Michigan: 55th (148)
Michigan State: 8th (91)
Passing D
Michigan: 3rd (135)
Michigan State: 17th (179)
Turnovers Gained
Michigan: 10
Michigan State: 10
Total D
Michigan: 10th (283)
Michigan State: 7th (270)
Scoring D
Michigan: 23rd (18)
Michigan State: 14th (16)
When Michigan has the ball:
The #55 offense will be facing the #7th defense. This will be a battle of strength on strength as the #8 rush defense attempts to slow down the #17 rushing offense. MSU appears slightly more susceptible through the air while Michigan's offensive numbers in the passing game don't look so hot. Sparty hasn't been able to create many turnovers on D this year (10 in 7 games) while Denard gave Notre Dame the ball 5 times in one contest. This statistical battle points to the Spartans defense having an edge over the Wolverine offense.
When Michigan State has the ball:
The #80 offense will be facing the #10 defense. Michigan's defense boasts gaudy numbers in pass defense (probably helped playing Air Force who rarely threw the football) while the MSU offense is surprisingly worse in the run game (84th) than in the pass game (59th). Michigan has also been poor at creating turnovers on defense this year (only 10 through 6 games) and the Michigan State offense has done a relatively good job in this area only turning the ball over 8 times. This comparison shows a big advantage for the Michigan defense against the struggling Spartan offense.
Thoughts:
These stats look pretty good to a Michigan fan. The defenses appear to be about on the same level and Michigan's offense is clearly better statistically than the Sparty O. Turnovers are my biggest worry for Saturday. It's difficult to envision Michigan creating more than 1 or 2 and Denard scares me versus good defenses. If we get good Denard, the version who takes care of the football and doesn't try to make a play on every play, the guy who runs and runs and only throws it to wide open receivers, I don't see many scenarios working in the Spartans favor. Denard, however, hasn't proven that he can do this very consistently and thus we wait with bated breath.
Are these numbers adjusted for strength of schedule?
ReplyDeleteNo. These are simply the raw numbers to this point of the season.
DeleteIt's easy to say Michigan has faced the more difficult schedule but Michigan's schedule has been one of extremes. They have played Alabama (in a league of it's own) ND (probably on a similar level to Michigan and MSU) and then 4 bad teams. Purdue was supposed to be a test but they have gotten annihilated the last two weeks by UM and Wisconsin. Illinois is a joke this season and UMass and Air Force aren't going to be beating many BCS conference teams.
MSU hasn't had any sure loss like the Alabama game but they have played some competent BCS conference teams in Ohio State, ND, Iowa, Boise St and maybe Indiana?
I'm not sure how the schedules truly affect these numbers. I know that football outsiders metrics show these to be very even teams (Michigan at #18 and MSU at #19 in their rankings) FEI has MSU at #27 and Michigan at #47 while S&P ratings has Michigan at 9th and MSU at 16th. These are interesting metrics. Michigan is lower in the FEI because they of basically what I said above. They have struggled mightily against the the two good teams on their schedule and FEI does not reward teams for handling business against bad teams. Michigan hasn't had much chance to gain because of the poor competition the last two weeks.
One more number to consider: 10.5 That is the spread for the game in Las Vegas.
That's Michigan favored by 10.5 if you were unsure.
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