Three Things

Michigan beat Eastern last week and it's difficult to take a lot from the game.  I know it was close after the first quarter, but after that it was never in question.  The big story from the game was that Denard ran the ball so many times.

This guy is good.

On we move to San Diego State.  There are plenty of story lines here as Hoke faces his old team.  Two of the top three offensive players in this game play for SDSU.  Their quarterback Hindley is an NFL level talent as a big armed statue type.  At running back, Hillman is probably the best back UM will face all season.  After a monster year last season he's off to a great start and is 2nd in the nation in rushing through three games.  Beyond those two, I dont' think the Aztecs stack up across the board to the talent level of the Wolverines.

Three things to watch:

1)  Is Denard capable of throwing accurately?

He looked like a precision passer early in the year last year, had some hiccups with decision making during Big Ten play but still graded out as an accurate guy in almost every game last year.  This season Robinson's decision making has seemed OK but his accuracy has been far from good.  Some of his passes have appeared to be nerves, where he simply overthrew open receivers, but what could be shrugged off as an anomoly is now looking like a disturbing trend.  If Denard completes over 70% of his passes, Michigan will win this game easily.

2) Hillman's yards per carry. 

After watching the first three weeks of the season, it would be crazy to expect Michigan to shut down Ronnie Hillman.  He is currently averaging 6.5 YPC through 3 games.  Expect him to run for over 100 yards, probably close to 150.  The big question is whether those yards come with a bunch of big gainers, gashing the Wolverines defense or whether he has to work for those yards on a ton of carries.  If he's over 5 YPC it is going to be a long day for Hoke & Co, under 4 YPC and it will be a very good performance by the Michigan defense.

3) Will a RB please stand up?

Vincent Smith has played well and earned the start versus the Aztecs, but it's unlikely he can be a mail carrier throughout the season.  Thomas Rawls is making some noise in practice and will likely get some carries this week.  I still think Fitzgerald Toussaint is the guy, but his health issues seem never ending.  I'm hoping Toussaint or Rawls can step up and have a big game Saturday and begin to the ease the load put on Denard in the running game.


Prediction:

Hindley and Hillman keep it close through three quarters.  Michigan gives up yards and points on defense but has a good day in both the passing and running game offensively.

42-28 Michigan