Who's the Best?

It's a wild year in the Big Ten. Through 9 weeks, a case could be made for no less than six teams each being the best in the Big Ten.  I know that sounds crazy, but let's take a look at each team.

Nebraska is 7-1 and ranked highest of any B1G team in the BCS.  They just dismantled the Spartans 24-3...but they also were obliterated 48-17 by Wisconsin.

So then Wisconsin must be the best team in the B1G...but they have 2 losses the previous two weeks.  Heart breaking for Bucky the Badger but two conference losses this early surely should take Wiscy out of the top slot.

Wisconsin just lost to an Ohio State team that seems to be improving and playing at a very high level defensively, but they have 3 losses.  I'm sure Buckeye fans are stating the case that their team is improving offensively and will be the Big Ten's best by season's end.  They have also won the conference the previous six seasons.  But this year, three losses and huge problems in the passing game hold Ohio State back and makes room for someone else to step up as the Big Ten's best. 

So what about Penn State?  They also sit at 7-1 and their only loss is to the juggernaut that is Alabama.  But then you see that their best win is either against Iowa or Illinois, both home games where they looked uninspiring while pulling out the ugly victory.  Winning is winning, so PSU gets credit, but the meat of their schedule is forthcoming and the eyeball test says that Penn State's offense, mostly due to quarterback play, is quite bad.

Michigan is 7-1 and has looked good in their 7 victories.  Those wins have also come against virtually no one.  The only "good" team they have beaten is Notre Dame in a game that could easily be classified as a fluke.  However, how can Michigan be the best team in the Big Ten if they lost decisively to Michigan State just two weeks ago?

Finally, we've figured it out!  Michigan State is clearly the Big Ten's best....oh wait, they just got manhandled by Nebraska.  And we're back to the imperfect Cornhuskers.

What does this all mean?  It's going to be a fun November.

Here's my ordered breakdown.  I'm not going by resume, more by my own feeling on what I see.

1) Nebraksa
2) Wisconsin
3) Michigan State
4) Michigan
5) Penn State
6) OSU

Let me know where I'm wrong in the comments.

Not as I wished

well that game went about as opposite as I had hoped.  Cousins looked off.  The few pass plays that went well the offense completely abandoned.   The ones that didnt work?  We kept trying.  First down, bomb it 40 yards.  First down bomb it 40 yards.  I know Roushar said at the start of the year he wants to open it up more on first downs, but after a few trys you need to get away from that, or do it to set up a 10 yard slant.  Every play we went deep on, it was one guy going deep with no one else around to catch the eye of the safety, needless to say, double coverage galore!

(humiliations galore)

With that, our offense in general was anemic.  The ground game was sputtering, at times looking good, at times looking bad.  I cannot really say anything about the offensive line. I dont think our offensive line played all that bad.  They didnt have their best game either.  I think Nebraska did a fantastic job of plugging holes and getting to the ball carrier.  Some miss direction may have been a good idea.  I dont know.  Nebraska's D played like it was billed to start the year. But all I wanted was a peanut.  

(stop that rhyming I mean it!)

For the defense, I thought we played pretty good.  We held Nebraska to 24 points, which was about where I had hoped we would keep them if we were gonna win.  Unfortunately, I was wrong.  Nebraska won the field position game and was able to score in the first off of a pick returned thirty yards.  From there Burkhead took over for the 7-0 lead.  Of the 24 points scored, 10 of those came off drives of only 25 and 38 yards.  Thats a tough spot to put the defense in when the other teams defense (and offense, obviously) is strong.  By the time the third quarter rolled about, the D looked a bit tired.  We were bound to lose a game on this 4 game stretch.  I guess I wish it was to Wisconsin though so we didnt have that in division loss.  O well, we move on, Nebraska handily beat us.  Gotta win out now, and stop acthing like ROUS'

(i refuse to believe they exist)

6-2 (3-1)

Nebraska

God I am an awful blogger.  I am in my full Kenny Powers get up, drinking some witches brew and trying to find a little bit of time to get some three things in. So let's get into it.


1. Running game:
MSU needs to be able to run the rock.  Like I said earlier, 125 yards on the ground would pretty much wrap this game up for MSU (unless Nebraska churns up a lot more...).  Right now, MSU is just rolling with the hot hand.  It does seem to change game to game.  However, I would like to see Edwin Baker pick up what he had going in the UM game.  I think our offensive line looks better with Edwin running the ball as opposed to Bell. This has more to do with a power back vs. someone who can burn the edges more.  Along with that, Jared Crick and Thaddeus Randle are out for the year.  Randle's injury makes the defensive line very thin for Nebraska.  MSU needs to take advantage of that. 

2.  Stopping the run game:
MSU needs to slow this game down.  Martinez and Burkhead are both prime time players.  Taylor runs the option very well and when his passing game is on, the Nebraska offense can be unstoppable.  If MSU out rushes Nebraska, this game is over in favor of the green guys.  Martinez isn't the same kind of quarterback as Denard is, this year.  If RR was still in Ann Arbor, the offenses would be nearly identical.  However, Nebraska tends to run a full option game a lot more.  This will be a slightly different look than the previous weeks.  I think it was very important for MSU to face the teams they did the last two games.  Mashing those two teams together would give a good look at what Nebraska is looking to run.  (Does that make any sense?)

3.  Control the crowd:
This is kind of a random way to win a game but college sports, more than any other level of sports can be swayed by the crowd.  If MSU plays Wisconsin at 330, instead of at 8...I think MSU looses that.  Beer tends to make one rowdy.  Nebraska fans are going to be amped up for this game.  Both MSU and Nebraska are playing for a straight away to the B1G title game. With that, the 11 am start time is going to help the Spartans.  If we can score on the first possession quiet the crowd and dominate the  ball for the duration of the game.  MSU will walk out of Lincoln with a victory. 

Prediction: 31-21 MSU.    Look for MSU to control the clock.  This game will be determined a lot on both our defensive backs and our ability to get at Martinez.  If our DBs are getting torched, my prediction is going to look ridiculous. 

The Era of Denard Robinson

Hail.

The Story: Denard Robinson has done countless amazing things as Michigan's quarterback.  He dropped the snap on his first ever college play as a true freshman, only to scoop it up and dazzle his way to a touchdown.  He has set numerous records for single game yardage performances, led Michigan to two improbable and spectacular victories against Notre Dame, and he's even made a name for himself as the most electrifying player in college football. 

He's good.  You know.

But just how good is he?

It's an interesting time for some legacy talk with Denard.  For all his greatness, he's been a part of the program during truly difficult times.  He's 0-2 versus the Spartans as a starter (0-5 overall against OSU and MSU) and despite two seemingly signature wins against Notre Dame, lacks the consistency of resume to be placed among the truly elite in Michigan lore.  I often see Michigan fans placing Denard in the same breath as players such as Woodson, Howard, Carter and Harmon.  To this point, despite all his crazy statistics and accolades, he has not earned that elite company.

A Caveat: Football certainly is a team game, and much of Denard's failures have come as a result of a lack of talent around him, (how much worse would things have been without him the last year and a half?) yet the truly great players transcend those hurdles and elevate those around them to new heights.

Crossroads: Robinson played his worst game as Michigan's starter just two weeks ago in East Lansing.  There were some mitigating factors (like a very good Spartan defense and a trash tornado) but Denard's play actually led some Michigan fans to call for Devin Gardner to play quarterback and Denard to be moved elsewhere.  Those people are lunatics, but Denard's career could go a couple ways from here.  He could remain what he is, an electrifying runner who trounces over-matched opponents and is able to inconsistently move the ball with his arm but falls short against good defenses and on the biggest stages, or he could take the next step and move onto the list with all the other Michigan greats.

With Purdue visiting Ann Arbor this weekend, Michigan sits at 6-1 with four games remaining.  Denard is essentially through half his career as Michigan's starter.  Michigan should beat Purdue, but this next 4 game stretch will define Denard Robinson for the rest of his career.  The ever-lying eyeball test reveals Michigan is a better team this season.  Just how much better will be spelled out for us over the next four weeks.   If the team (and Denard) struggle and Michigan loses three (especially if one of those is to OSU) of the remaining 5 games, the Devin Gardner heat will intensify this summer and the Denard Robinson era will likely end one of hope and potential but ultimately disappointment.  It's time to see improvement in Denard Robinson, improvement that comes against Big Ten opponents and leads to meaningful victories.  It needs to start this week against Purdue. 

I apologize to you, Charles, for what I am about to say...

The previous paragraph I wrote Denard Robinson's era at Michigan may be remembered with disappointment, but at a true crossroads there is another path.   If Denard is able to steer down this vastly different path, he has the potential and opportunity to go down as THE greatest Wolverine of all-time.  That's lofty, too lofty your brain just said, but just imagine if Michigan wins 4 out it's last 5 games with a victory over OSU and Denard has some monster games (this is in my realm of possibility, am I crazy?)  A bowl game win for an 11-2 record and an entire off-season to continue to refine his skills as a passer and Denard will be an early season favorite for the Heisman trophy in 2012.  Michigan will have a bunch of marquee games for a senior Denard to lead them in and if he is able to lead Michigan to a magical season (a giant IF, but one that becomes more probable when you assume improvement in his own game) it would be even more special because of the circumstances of the last few seasons.  Combined with his assault on all of Michigan's (and the NCAA's) record books and it's possible that in just over 14 months Denard Robinson could be the greatest.

He may never reach the realm of the truly elite, but then again...



3 Things to Watch Versus Purdue:

1) Can Michigan throw the football?  

If Denard comes out and tosses the ball all around, Michigan is going to run away with the game.  If Denard is throwing bounce passes and interceptions, buckle-up.  The hard part about this is Denard can look atrocious one possession and magnificent the next, so I guess buckle-up either way.

2) Bye-Bye Bye Week

Michigan came out as flat as I have ever seen a team play football last season after their bye week.  I expect a much better effort in the Big House on Saturday.  If they have no emotion, Purdue has enough talent to make them pay.


3) Can Purdue make big plays? 

Michigan's defense has given up yards this season but has come up with turnovers at opportune times and held fairly strong in the red zone.  They are not a lights-out shut you down defense. (they were 108th in the country last year after all)   However, Michigan has rarely ceded big plays this season.  In fact, I don't believe the defense has given up a single play of more than 40 yards.  Purdue may need a couple big gainers and big touchdowns if they want to win the game. 

Prediction: 

If this game was on the road, I'd be awfully nervous.  As is, I'm paranoid because I'm worried about what a loss would do to the team's psyche after a difficult couple of years.  I don't think Purdue is a very good ball club. (they lost to Rice...even more damning, they played AT Rice)  They are a team that will claw tooth and nail to try to reach a bowl game and probably come up one game short.

Michigan 33 - 20

6-1 and 6-1

I am kinda geeked up for this game.  MSU needs this win. It is a bit unfortunate that the game is at 11 am central time.   Off the top of my head.  MSU needs to rush the ball well.  About 125 yards rushing would pretty much guarantee a win on Saturday.  Along with that, locking up Taylor Martinez will be crucial.  Nebraska averages, I think, 225 yards per game rushing.  That is a crap load.  Burkhead is no joke either.  MSU will be cheating towards stopping the run and force Martinez to beat them through the air.

How long has Nebraska been running the option?  Since before Crouch? 

Last point for tonight before my three things tomorrow. Please, let this offensive line have another great game.

Anyone gonna watch Beavis and Butthead tonight?

(looks like pat and tbone)

Worried About Purdue?

So Purdue surprised last weekend with a win over Illinois after a solid performance in a loss @Penn State the previous week.  What does this mean?  Should I, as a Michigan fan, be worried about the Boilers?

Danny Hope is winning at mustache.

A quick look at the stats:

Purdue is 68th in total offense gaining 387 yards per game.
For comparison, Michigan is ranked 25th @ 451 yards per game.

Purdue is 39th in total defense, yielding 351 yards per game.
Michigan is 36th @ 345 yards per game.  An interesting note here is that Michigan's defense allows more yards per play, which may be a better determinate of the defense than yardage per game.

So far this season:

W 27-24 vs Middle Tennessee
L  24-22 @ Rice  (why did they play @Rice?)
W 59-0 vs Southeastern Missouri St
L 38-10 vs Notre Dame
W 45-17 vs Minnesota
L 23-18 @ Penn State
W 21-14 vs Illinois

Which gives Purdue a record of 4-3.  By the pattern of their schedule, they are due for a loss this week to keep the every-other thing rolling so we've got that going for us. 

I'd be more worried about this game if it was on the road, but Purdue is not a pushover.  Vegas really likes Michigan as they came out a 15 point favorite in this game.  To me, that's a bit too much but I think Michigan does have a much more potent offense.  If we exclusively see bad Denard again, Purdue will take advantage and win the ballgame.  Denard needs to improve over the 2nd half of the season if Michigan wants to have a special season (10-2 type year). I'll have more thoughts on this game later in the week.

Purdue started out the season with some really bad performances, sneaking by Middle Tennessee and losing to a pretty bad Rice team don't seem like something a good team would do...but the recent evidence trends toward an improving ball club that is gaining confidence and playing well. 

Handicapping the Legends Race

We know that MSU is in good position to win the Legends division and play in the inaugural B1G Championship game, but let's take a closer look at how things look for the rest of the season.

First, let's look at remaining schedules for the contenders (I'm going to omit Northwestern and Minnesota but include the remaining teams)

Also, I'm going to list the games in order of perceived difficulty rather than simply how they fall on the calendar.

MSU

@NEB

@Iowa

@NW

Indiana

Minnesota

This appears to be the most manageable of the schedules below.  MSU benefits from their last 3 wins which was a very difficult stretch.  Obviously there are two sure wins there with home games against IU and Minny but the other three road games are potentially dangerous for the Spartans.  This weekends game at Nebraska is by far the stiffest test remaining.

Michigan

OSU

NEB

@Iowa

@Illinois

Purdue

The Wolverine's loss to the Spartans was the first stiff test since Michigan escaped with a win against Notre Dame.  The 2nd half of the schedule is much more difficult than the first half, but also brings some home cookin' against the toughest teams remaining. 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome in this stretch, but 4-1 is reasonably possible with 2-3 also possible.

Nebraska

MSU

@PSU

@Michigan

Iowa

Northwestern

Even after their loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska controls it's own destiny in the Legends division.  They have a very difficult remaining schedule as their date in Happy Valley looks more daunting by the week.  A win over MSU this week and Nebraska suddenly vaults themselves into pole position within the division. 

Iowa

@NEB

MSU

Michigan

@Purdue

@Minnesota

Yet another team that controls it's own destiny.  Iowa gets Michigan and Michigan State at home, will win @Minnesota and then has two tough road games @Nebraska and @Purdue.  It's hard to see the Hawkeyes going 5-0 in this stretch but the Hawkeyes always seem to improve as the season goes on and will be a tough out in every game.  I'd wager a bet that Iowa will have some say in the league champion but that will likely be in a spoiler role.

I'm trying to rehash this from memory, but I believe the format for division winners looks something like this:

1. Conference Record
2. Head-to-Head
3. Division Record

I could be totally wrong about that...but if I'm not, it further cements MSU's spot in the driver's seat, as they have an unblemished record within the division and hold a tie breaker over Michigan in the head to head match-up. 

There are certainly a lot of possibilities left out there.  Michigan would need 2 MSU losses to get back into consideration whereas Nebraska and Iowa control their own destiny. 

With the eyeball test of how teams have performed thus far along with a breakdown of the schedules, I think you would handicap the division race as:

Favorite: MSU
Next:      Nebraska
3rd:        Michigan
4th:         Iowa

Recap or not

just got home from work.  going to the gym then will get the post up after that.













*******************************************************************************

Ok, time for a real recap.    First of all, WOW.  Talk about a huge win for this Spartans team.  There were several amazing stats in this game.  First of all, the Spartans were penalized 0 times for 0 yards.  Now is probably a good time to drop the thuggish, or the undisciplined or the win at all costs talk.  Second, during the game, the Spartans both overcame a 14 point deficit and gave up a 14 point deficit - that's kind of weird.  Lastly, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal and a safety all in the same game?  Awesome.   

With that, this defense is pretty fantastic and without them, we are probably a 3 win team.  Wisconsin came into this game averaging 50 points per game and we allowed 31.  31 isn't too fantastic, but when the team is averaging 50 that's pretty good.  As mentioned already, this defense came up with several big plays, the ones mentioned above, along with two interceptions, and a handful of sacks.  Towards the end of the game, Jerel Worthy was barking at the offensive line, full on getting in their face, challending them to protect Kirk and get the job done.  Sure enough, the offense did.

Wisconsin came into this game averaging just under 10 points per game.  MSU scored 37 (8 of those were on defense).  Kirk Cousins was 22-31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns.  BJ Cunningham had 6 catches for 102 yards a touchdown and a 2 point conversion.  Did you see that 2 point conversion?  It was unreal.  Hell of a pass from Kirk and an amazing catch by BJ.   With the receivers, Keshawn Martin had another huge game with two touchdowns.  He has said that he was injured up until the Michigan game, and since being injury free he now has 4 touchdowns in 2 games.  I will take that.  What is nice about having Keshawn back 100% is that he has speed and it shows.  MSU was certainly the faster team on offense this past Saturday.   And sure enough, MSU used Keshawn's speed to attack the edges, both with the end around and turning the receiving touchdown to the outside-freezing the Wisconsin defenders.  On that same touchdown, Keith Nichol had a perfect downfield block.  I wont go into Keith catching the ball a whole lot since that has been written about a billion times already.  If anything, search the video.  Thank god for those biceps...

The play of the game came on the final drive.  With Wisconsin calling timeouts looking to get the ball back should MSU punt, Dan Roushar called up a shuttle pass to Keshawn who took it 11 yards for a first down.  This to me was the play of the game.  It was almost a perfect play call, I cannot imagine Wisconsin saw that coming, and that first down ruined Wisconsin's plan to leave time on the clock. 

Immediately the Nebraska game next week becomes the biggest of the year, the winner of this game will be on the fast track to the B1G championship game and will hold the tie breaker over the other.

6-1 (3-0)

MSU vs. Wisconsin

WHOA.  This game snuck up on me.  Nothing posted since the Michigan game.  Also, for those UM fans out there, Pat is at a wedding and will unable to post anything.  It helps that Michigan has a bye week... So, let us jump right into to East Lansing. 

I will start by saying that the reason that they have nets up on College Gameday is that in about 1997 I want to say, fans pelted Herbstreit with  beer cans.   GO STATE!

What are three things to watch out for?

1:  The play of Russel Wilson.

For MSU to win this game, they need to stop Wilson from making plays.  Russel is is both an upgrade and a down grade from Denard Robinson, he is a less dynamic runner but a better passer.  We need to get to Wilson early and get some hits on him.  Any way to rattle the quarterback and disrupt some timing on his passes will go a long way to winning this game.  On that note, Wilson is still very capable of running and going out on passes to catch the pass.  Which brings me to my next point

2: Defensive line play.

This Wisconsin offensive line is just about a complete 180 from the Michigan offensive line.  These are big boys.  Wisconsin is best known for their massive offensive linemen and their ability to pound the football.  Without William Gholston, the MSU offensive line is going to need to step up their play.  We need to find ways get through their line and stop that initial push.  If Wisconsin is constantly getting a good 2 or 3 yards of push in the trenches it is going to be a long day for the Spartans.  I am looking for the defensive line to blitz more linebackers both on the edge and up the middle and keep the defensive backs in coverage to limit Wilsons ability to pass the ball on blitzes.

3: Can we score some points?

This is a HUGE game for our offense.  The offense has been very much a lame duck. At times they have looked good, and other times have looked downright awful.  Wisconsin has been scoring at a clip of about 40 ppg.  Does the MSU offense need to match that?  No.  But we are going to need to get some points with touchdowns - not field goals.  Like the UM game, I expect Kirk Cousins to attack the edges in the passing game and after Keshawn Martins game last week, I see more plays aimed at him...DO NOT FUMBLE THE BALL!!!!!!!!!!   With that, it is pretty obvious that we need to be able to run the football and when MSU is unable to run the football, MSU gets stomped.  Edwin Baker looked like a man possessed last week.  Will he still have that speed, and will our offensive line still have that push?  I sure hope so.  If you cant get up for a game like this, you might as well stay home.  If Kirk can get the ball on the edges and open up some dump passes in the middle to the TE.  We will be very effective on offense. 

This game is at night, in Spartan Stadium.  The place is going to be rocking.  I think this favors us a lot.  However, I think Wisconsin is legit.  They are big, their running back is fast, and the ability of Wilson to scramble adds another dimension to their offense.   As much as it pains me to type this I do not think MSU wins this one.  31-27 Wisconsin.  Prove me wrong State!!

Housekeeping

Pat did not want to mention the background change.  He is still hung up on this whole Will Gholston thing.  So I will go ahead and point out the obvious, and the stuff that has been mentioned previously.  Pat and I bet the background.  We, so far, have only settled on the MSUum football game.  So I hope everyone enjoys Joel Foreman and the Paul Bunyan trophy.  I do not think it will be back in the Ann Arbor anytime soon.  East Lansing is a little more Paul Bunyan country anyway. 

After a few weeks I will revert to a a more school neutral photo. 

Coming up tomorrow?  Some thoughts on the Wisconsin game.  Early thought?  I do not feel good about this. 

Images of game day

Tom Izzo.  the zoom on my phone isnt that great.  the neat part about the seats is that all the bball recruits hang out there before the game.  

I have good seats.  this is a pretty good image.  Im pretty sure Dion Sims false starts in about 15 seconds here.

The girls that sit behind me are absolute maniacs.  They're fun.

 

Michigan fan and his lady.  They had the same jeans on.  He had neon green shows.  Was also telling his girlfriend how he shoved a  female MSU fan into some bushes.  His girlfriend laughed.  They were drunk/unhappy. 

Some other fun things from the game. The two people in front of me were a father and a son.  The dad was in this mid to late 30s and a Michigan fan.  The son was about 14 and a Spartan fan.  Needless to say the son was loving sitting in front of me. 

A student from MSU kicked a 35 yard field goal into the wind to win a GMC Arcadia.  A car valued at about 32k.  He absolutely drilled it too.  that was pretty neat. 

If I get onto my facebook, I can upload some more pictures.

I really enjoy tailgating. 

Medicine, Taken

MSU won the game by routinely getting the edge in the running game.  Running outside the tackles has been a problem for Michigan's defense all season, I was hopeful they would address it and shore that up, they didn't.

The 4th down play was the play that turned the game.  Michigan converts there and it's a different ballgame. (obviously the pick 6 was huge as well, but momentum had already swung on the 4th down play)  Hats off to the Sparties for a good call blitzing the corner on the short side of the field.  In those instances, as the offensive team, Michigan just threw scissors against rock, it happens.

Speaking of that pick 6, for as poor of a game as Denard had, I think Vincent Smith didn't run the proper route (it was a hot read situation) on the play and that was one of the few passes where Denard didn't make a mistake.

MSU played the entire game with 8 (usually 9) in the box.  Denard couldn't make them pay, that's worrisome for Michigan as the season goes on.  You have to believe all the future opponents will follow the same game plan, putting a ton of players in the box and bring pressure on the blitz as well.

The home field played a big part in the game.  State was able to time the snap count regularly and that really helped with all the pressure.  In fact, Jerel Worthy was largely ineffective and jumped offsides twice when Michigan was varying the snap counts early, but as the game wore on it seems MSU (and Worthy in particular) was able to time the counts more and more and put the Michigan offensive line in a tough spot.  The Wolverines actually gained 150 yards on running plays, but gave back close to 70 yards on sacks, ugly.

Also ugly, both sets of uniforms.  I thought the striped uniforms looked alright for Michigan against Notre Dame, as it was simply maize and blue, but adding the maize and blue onto the all whites was just too much IMO.  As for the Spartans, I kept thinking I was watching Missouri versus Baylor or something.  Either that, or Nike gave MSU some hand-me-downs from Oregon.  What was the chant at the game?  "Go Green! Go Bronze!"? (Also, what was with all the trash in Spartan Stadium?  I know it was windy, but there was trash literally flying all over the place)

Hats off to Sparty, they were the better team and deserved the victory.  In fact, while Michigan certainly had a chance to win, (down 7 with the ball at the MSU 9 yard line) I think that was mostly due to MSU being so undisciplined and committing so many stupid penalties.  Against Wisconsin, those penalties will get you beat, Michigan just isn't good enough to take advantage.


Michigan fans all over the internet are freaking out that this is just like the last few years...I don't think so.  MSU was maybe the best team Michigan will face all season, playing in their first true road environment.  The offense played poorly, but the defense seems to be vastly improved.  They missed some tackles and need to learn to keep contain as well as how to take on cut blocks, but the improved defense and Denards on again, off again ability to torture defenses is going to make every game winnable or losable from here on out.  Taking nothing away from MSU, Michigan played their worst game of the season Saturday.  Against Notre Dame, they played that way for 3 quarters but then turned it on in the 4th.  In other games, they played poorly for a half, but this game they never got into a rhythm offensively and Denard never found his accuracy.  It was mostly all oh no Denard.  I think it cannot be understated how different the current offense is under Borges in comparison to last year's offense under Rodriguez.  A lot of the formations and plays may appear similar, but Denard is now tasked with making pre-snap reads (whereas last year that would come from the sidelines) and then also go through an honest to god progression instead of hitting his first read on quick hitting plays. He'll get better as time goes on and I think his accuracy will improve as he becomes more comfortable with his decision making.

Some other things I found interesting:

Denard finished with 18 carries, but probably only 10 of those were designed runs.  Why run him so much against lesser competition, in better passing conditions and then hold him back in this game?  Hopefully he doesn't have some sort of injury they aren't telling the media about.

Cunningham was not a huge factor.  I think the wind affected both QB's a lot, as Cousins did almost all of his damage in the two quarters when he was heading with the wind.

Which begs the question, why did Borges keep throwing on 2nd and 8 in the 3rd quarter (heading into the wind)?  Or on first and ten?  Clearly the wind was affecting the play, take your chances running it 3 times and then punting.  Denard may just break a tackle or make someone miss and go the distance.

And lastly,

I wasn't going to mention this, but since Tbone brought it up....Defending William Gholston's actions is ridiculous.  He played classless, dirty football and plays like that have no place in the game.  Remember, that's what this is, a game.  Trying to intentionally injure an opposing player or throwing punches goes well over the line of playing hard, intense football.  Gholston got blocked onto the ground in a routine play and then got up and punched his blocker in the throat. The play on Denard should have gotten him ejected in the first place, as he piled on late and then twisted Robinson's head by the facemask.  Denard was trapped under bodies and couldn't move, making it an even more dangerous play.  Even on the first play of the game, if you watch the replay, Gholston puts Lewans injured elbow into an armbar, which isn't a routine football play and appears directly intended to injure.  He should be suspended by the B1G.  Or by Dantonio if he wanted to run a respectable program.  Don't forget, these plays cost MSU 30 yards in the ballgame.

Victory for MSU

We will make this both a game recap and a gloat post. If anything, Pat and I are good at predicting the outcomes of games.  Though we were slightly wrong.  Pat thought that running the football would mean it would open up the game for Kirk and Cuningham.  I have to say, I agreed with that coming into the game, boy were we wrong.  Instead, MSU just pounded it out on the ground.  Pound Green Pound, indeed.  With a 213 to 82  rushing advantage, both my goal of 150 yards and Pats prediction of averging over 5 ypc for MSU were true.  Edwin Baker looked the best he has all year.  This game was close in the first half, and could have swung in Michigan's favor if not for the stiffing defense.  Overall, Denard Robinson was 9-24 for 123 yards along with 18 rushes for 42 yards.  If any UM fan tries to say we do not have a dominate defense, you, plain and simple, should kill yourself because you're wasting Earth's resources by being alive.  Denicos Allen had a huge game, along with William Gholston.

(Gholston has beeng receving a lot of criticism from the little sisters and I would like to address that.  Reviewing the face punch, I do not see anything wrong with that.  Yes it is beyond dumb to do that, but when you're provoked, you react.  This is what you get when you grab a guy by the face, the pads and unnecessarily bring him to the ground.  On the head twist, I did not see any replays of that and will have to watch the tape later in the week to see.  Apparently, Gholston got a little over zealous on Denard and twisted his head in the pile.  That is just not acceptable, and I can see him being suspended if that is true.)

(Future All-American)

 
Overall, the MSU defensive line abused Michigans offensive line.  There was no answer for our blitzes and for our athleticism off the edge.  I heard child services was called into the Michigan locker room because of the abuse.

The UM d was solid, I will give them that.  I wont let Pat say that UM left points on the field, because for every touchdown UM left on the field, MSU left 10 points.  This is what defense is, it makes teams leave points on the field.  I think its about time the Mike Martin hype ends.


On Kirk Cousins.  His passing game was effective even with the lack luster stats.  There were three dropped passes that were in the hands of receivers.  One would have included about 30 yards after catch.  However, what Kirk did doe was attack the sides of the UM defense.  This lead to both MSU passing touchdowns.  There was little answer for Keyshawn Martin on the sideline.  In what looked like the same play on both Touchdowns, I don't think anyone saw them coming.  (all of MSU's offensive touchdowns were in front of my season tickets, whammy)

That was good game, and the father son, Michigan MSU combo sitting in front of me was enjoyable.

Four more years!

5-1 (2-0)

Quick and Dirty Quarterback Play

Tbone's Final Thoughts and a Prediction:

Kirk Cousins needs to have a good game.  Simply put.  If Kirk can limit his turnovers, we win this game handily.  I can see Kirk attacking this defense on the sidelines, then hitting quick slants for large gains.  This game hinges on Kirk ability to be 100% effective.  I am currently at a friends house using his computer to do this blog.  I just bonged a beer.  Spartans. 

Overall, we need to limit turnovers and score off turnovers we get.  This will limit the scoring ability of Denard Robinson. 


Prediction time:  31-21 MSU. 

I think our defense keeps us in this game and we have a mistake free game on offense.  I can easily see this score being exactly reversed in favor of Michigan.  So thats how I feel about this game.

Time to go back to Rusty's.  See you at 6 a.m.

(Pat's take below)

I think that's a fair assessment and prediction, I also think it's optimistic as far as the Spartans are concerned. 

Here's 3 things to watch:

1) Can Michigan State run the football?  

The oft discussed offensive line for MSU is going to have a big test versus an improving Michigan front 7.   MSU is going to rush for over 100 yards, so the total yardage isn't really the thing to look out for, instead, look to see if MSU averages over 5 YPC.  If they do, they win.  It's not so much the damage that will be done on the ground, instead it's all about Cousins.  If he has manageable down and distances along with the threat of play action he's going to find Cunningham for big plays.  When MSU has the ball, first down is going to be extremely important.

2) Amazing Denard or Oh No Denard? 

When Michigan has the ball, MSU could stack the box and shut down the running game, but if they do there are going to be open receivers.  Denard is sometimes wildly ineffective and other times terrifyingly good throwing the football.  You'll probably witness a little of both tomorrow, but if he limits the oh no's, Michigan is in great shape in this game.  

3) Turnovers

Both the above factor into who is going to turn the ball over more and that will be the stat that changes this game.  Shoelace has had some serious issues with turnovers this season (9 INTs in 6 games) and Cousins has also been throwing too many ill-advised balls.  The team that protects the rock in this game is going to win. 

Prediction:

This is as close to a toss up as you can find.  I'd pick Michigan by a few if they were at home, but this game is in EL.   After a bit of a shaky road start in Evanston last week, I'm concerned that the home field is going to deliver this game to the Spartans.

With all that said, man I believe in Denard in close games.  He's got some magic in him...and I don't think I'm being a wild homer in picking the Wolverines. 

A late scoring drive, capped by a spectacular run by Shoelace gives Michigan a 28-27 victory.

Running backs and Linebackers.

Up next and for the double dip blog post, Pat and I will look at the linebackers and running backs.  

(Here is Pat with the Michigan running backs.)

Michigan's running backs are a very interesting unit.  They have an array of talent but no true go-to back.  Vincent Smith is small but could possibly be the toughest player on the entire football team.  He's the best pass blocker of the running backs, has some shiftiness and runs as hard as anyone you'll find.  I really like Toussaint as I think he has the best potential of being a mail carrying running back of anyone on the roster.  The coaches seem to agree as he has gotten the most carries so far this season.  I think this is the most underrated unit on Michigan's team because they aren't featured as much with Denard in the lineup.  MSU's stable of backs is better but I don't think the gap in talent is vast.  Vincent Smith would get playing time for the Spartans for sure.  

Michigan State has a threeish headed monster in the running game.  There's Baker, Bell and Caper. LLP.  Baker is the stud back, the guy they call rock.  However, he has had a less than stellar season so far espeically after last year.  From watching the games, I do not think this is because of the offensive line play, rather Baker seems to be making poor reads.  Last year he would make the right cut and spring a run.  This year he seems to be making a cut into the back of his own players.  Bell is a bigger back - runs with a lot of power and is known for this ability to stay on his feet after contact.  Caper has been relegated to the third down back roll, but is a major threat to catch the ball out of the back field.  He is more than capable to run as a #1 overall back.   Caper gets the majority of his yards on screen passes and roll outs.  He has broken a few runs this year and has a nice fresh set of legs at the end of the game.  

(Here is Pat with the Michigan Linebackers)

Michigan's linebacking core is the weakest unit on the team.  It mixes inexperience with a lack of quality depth and talent.  They are still much better than the last couple of seasons.  Kenny Demens is a real life B1G middle linebacker and leads the team in tackles.  Brandin Hawthorne got a chance due to injury and has not ceded his spot since.  His continued improvement is of great importance to Michigan's defense going forward.  He has been a boom/bust type of player who will make plays and also make some mistakes.  Jake Ryan is the third starter and has been a very good young player.  He too will make occasional errors but seems to correct them, even within a game. (coaching is good to have)

The linebackers aren't going to be a unit that wins Michigan a game but they can be solid, make plays when given the chance and help to shut down MSU's running game.  An interesting matchup here IMO is when MSU tries to get the edge.  Can Ryan keep contain and keep Baker and Bell from getting to the sideline? 

(the current Michigan backers are a long way from the "glory" days)

The Spartan linebackers I am very so so about.  I will say I am very excited about them next year.  Denicos Allen is my favorite backer of the group. He has tremendous speed and athleticism off the edge.  Chris Norman and Steve Gardiner kind of split starts and time pretty evenly.  Both are similar sized and what Gardiner lacks in speed he makes up for in hitting power.  Finally in the middle is Max Bullough, straight out of traverse city st. francis.  He has been very surprising to me. He has played well and is a big body. Max checks defenses at the line and is a vocal leader out there. Were gonna need Max to have the best game of his career.    Our linebacker core is the type Dantonio had at OSU with speed on the edge and big bruiser in the middle.  As we are now, I miss the speed Greg Jones had in the middle and we might miss him even more against Denard.  I really look to Denicos to be a difference maker in this game, his speed will be necessary to help contain Denard and cover WR's.

(Pat's analysis of today's posts. ) Tbone will interject where necessary.

Summary:  The WR units are a push.  MSU's running backs are better than Michigan's but not by a giant margin. (agreed 100%.  UMs are all a lot faster in open space, but they do not really seem to have any sort of elusiveness.  In my opinion they rely on  getting the edge.) I know they are a young unit (and Tbone will give us more insight) but I think MSU's linebackers are better than Michigan's.  I do, however, like Michigan's secondary more than MSU's.  (Tbone may disagree)  I just feel like people are still rating Michigan's secondary based on what happened the last few seasons and not what they've seen so far this year.  This year, they've been pretty good. (yes, they've been pretty good for half of a game.  This unit lacks any ability to cover a guy down field.  Next year I can see them being very solid.  MSU's secondary is the best part of their defense in my opinion, so I will 100% disagree with you that UM's is better.)

When it comes to match-ups on what was posted today...

Here's Pat!
When the Spartans have the ball:   I like Michigan's secondary versus anyone but Cunningham, who I think will have another big game.  He's unlikely to be shut down and will make a few plays.  I think Michigan's linebackers will do well against the Spartans running game but that is more due to offensive line issues for MSU than the ability of the guys toting the rock.  

And now tbone

When the Wolverines have the ball it will be necessary to keep Denard in check.  Our secondary needs to have good coverage so that when Denard throws the ball, there is an opportunity for an interception. The MSU linebackers will be need to bottle the run game at spots while also keeping in check the underneath pass throw.  UM likes to make a quick pass to the tight end, we need to guard against that, and the fakes built off of that.

 

Back to you Pat!
When Michigan has the ball:  I like Michigan's WRs to do what they do.  They aren't going to make huge plays but they will be open because of the stress that Robinson puts on a defense.  Michigan's running backs I think may struggle in this game.  It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to get Vincent Smith in space with a lot of screens or if they simply abandon giving the ball to the running backs and rely heavily on Denard.  I could see something like 50-60 yards for the running backs in this game on a limited number of carries (around 15).

And finally, tbone

When MSU has the ball look for a balanced attack.  We will need to establish a run game to get space in the passing game.  As mentioned earlier, Cunningham should have a big game but I hope Cousins does not try to force feed him.  The Spartan receivers will need to catch it when thrown to them.  I feel Dion Sims can be the biggest difference maker for the offense.  When running the ball, it will be pretty evenly split between Baker and Bell.  I do not know who is going to have a good game, but I like the thought of Baker breaking out of his funk, he ran very well against Michigan last year.  If we rush for 150 yards, we win this game easily. 

Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs

Well let pat start us out here:

Michigan's WRs are a good unit that does not have any one explosive play maker.  That aside, they have made plays this year.  JR Hemingway is the best of the bunch and he's got great size and leaping ability.  If he's one on one with a DB, Denard is liable to put one up there and let him go win a jump-ball.  This is a good, deep unit.  Jeremy Gallon has made a big move to become really the most targeted of all the wideouts.  Kevin Koger is a solid TE who provides another option in the passing game.   I know Tbone loves MSU's wide receivers, and BJ Cunningham is very good, but I think Michigan's personnel matches up very well here.  I've heard about how good Jamar Adams (ed note, pat informed me this was an honest mistake, but we need some locker room material) and the Spartans secondary is playing so it will be interesting to see how this match-up plays out.  This has been a positive unit for Michigan this season and should continue that on Saturday.  If any of these guys make a spectacular play it is only icing for Michigan's offense, they aren't relied upon to carry the O (whereas I think Cunningham might be). 


(Now it is time for Tbone)
The MSU WRs are the best in the B1G  and Cunningham is one of the top three in the B1G alone.  There is not a lot to say about him other than he has hands like pillows, and has a knack for finding the ball.  Cousins and Cunningham have worked well together and obviously have a strong link and trust in one another.  In spite of Nichol not having a great year, he hasnt been passed to a whole lot.  When he has been, he has caught it, currently, Nichol is averaging about 15 yards per catch.  He is more up the middle because of his big size.  Do not expect to see Nichol streaking down the sideline. He is our strongest WR and when you have arms that make ladies swoon, does it matter? 

Martin had not done a lot both as a WR and as a KR.  I do not expect a lot out of him, out side of a kick returner.  His hands are medicore but he does have good speed,  It would be nice if he broke one of those screen passes for like 40 yards.  Bennie Fowler should be back for this game.  Dont expect a lot out of him but he is the wide receiver of the future.  Tony Lippet has also looked good in spot action.  Not a lot to say about those two based on limited action.  Tony has played both WR and DB,  he seems to have DB hands.... but that could be an inexperience thing.  Look for the MSU receivers to pick up yards on slants and quick passes and then open it up deep against the MI secondary.  I do not have a lot of faith in them as a defensive unit mostly due to the large amount of blitzing (the blitzing is something I do fear however).  A final WR note is Dion Sims.  If we can get him involved in the pass game more, he can do mucho damage against UM.  Sims is a tight end with a massive body and incredible athleticism.  I have loved Sims since the start, it would be nice if we used him more.

(from walk on to best player on the defense)

(Here comes Pat with the UM secondary)

Michigan's secondary is their most improved unit this season.  (Linebackers are a close 2nd).  If you don't love Jordan Kovacs you hate America.  At the other spots, there is actually good old-fashioned competition resulting in better play.  The corners have played well, not spectacular, but actually go 4 deep.  Thomas Gordon has been the major pleasant surprise.  He won the job over penciled in starter Carvin Johnson (Johnson still gets playing time) and has simply made plays.  He has forced fumbles and made interceptions.  It may be an aberration but Gordon's play so far this season would make him Michigan's best safety in three seasons.  That's not saying a ton but it certainly is encouraging.  This unit isn't going to blanket you and shut down an offense if the QB can sit in the pocket.  They also are much less likely to give up the gashing plays that crushed them in recent seasons.  Cousins will likely be given some short to intermediate things and Michigan will hope he makes a mistake when pressure gets home.  Michigan's secondary has somehow turned into something of a strength but that notion will certainly be tested this weekend.  MSU will move the ball and get yards but their ability to finish drives will be something to watch for as Michigan's defense has been opportunistic in creating turnovers and getting stops on 4th down


(Finally, Tbone with the MSU secondary)
I love our secondary.  I think is very good, the LBs help but we will get to them later in the day.  I don't know who Jamar Adams is, but Johnny Adams is our top DB.  Look for pat to remember his name.  Johnny has had some silly late hit penalties, I hope hes over that.  Darqueze Dennard,   is the other DB, hes a little larger than Johnny and has shown good ability to track the ball.  Isiah Lewis and Trentonn Robinson are the safeties.  Robinson is a senior and a captain.  He plays good D, is a vocal leader and I expect him to have a good game.  Lewis is a second year player who was highly recruited.   This has been his first year starting.  He is a big hitter but has shown at times to blow some assignments. I expect the db's to lock up on JR hemming way and try to push him to the outside.  Hemmingway is a good receiver averaging over 20 yards per catch.   If we can slow him down, I think that will go a long way to stopping UM's aerial attack.   Along with that, Johnny Adams has blitzed at times and he has good explosiveness, this could come in handy to keep Robinson off his game.  

(whats my name?)

On Rivalry Canines

Below is the story of an ordinary dog and her battle to overcome the cruel and and unfortunate circumstance of Spartan torture. 

As in all great tales, there is a beginning.

At a mere 8 months of age, she was already pure Michigan.   Inquisitive, relaxed, comfortable. 

Cheers for Michigan and runs 5K's for charity.

But only pain can forge a true sense of self, of being, of home.   As many have done before, she too went through trial and tribulations.  She was still only a pup when she was so brutally treated at an East Lansing tailgate four seasons ago.  Michigan would win that day, but the scars to her psyche have never relinquished their horrifying hold.  

That's Tbone manhandling my dog.

Look at how miserable she looks!  She clearly hates Drew Stanton.  And the color green.  And drunk, loud, obnoxious humans who believe alcohol transforms them into the characters of 300.  Her eyes are screaming for help as Tbone's grasp strangles her spirit.  This is misery.   This is MSU.

But could it possible get worse?  Indeed, her suffering had not yet ceased.  We all know Spartans are repeat offenders...(I'm looking at you Glenn Winston)  So of course Tbone can't keep his grubby, filthy, slimey green hands off my dog and defiled her yet again. 

Anyone else notice the Boddingtons on the table and get thirsty?

Humiliating.

Desecration of a man's best friend shall not go unpunished!  Brady Hoke and Denard Robinson agree, they love dogs, unlike cruel and indecent puppy hating Spartans.  Tbone probably has Michael Vick as his fantasy team captain and quarterback....yeah, I went there.

Ah but there is salvation, casting aside dirty Spartans, she rises a Wolverine.

That's a good looking collar.

Now look at her.  Classy.  Stoic. Proud.

Celebrating a Michigan victory with a little climbing.

On Rivalries Week

The battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy takes place this Saturday at noon in East Lansing.  Spartans are confident riding their 3 game win streak in the series and need to be reminded of the series all-time record of  67-31-5.  (it should be noted that um is a mere 34-22-2 since the Paul Bunyan trophy was established.  thats what?  a JLSmith tenure worth of dominance?- tbone)  This year, what appears to be two evenly matched teams will do battle.  To better prepare you, Tbone and I will provide a rundown of a match-up of personnel and try to figure out who has an advantage in this game.

Up today, the battle in:  

The Trenches

Big Ten games are usually decided by who wins the battle up front.  While this battle won't be the only one we discuss it may just be the most important. 

First up: Michigan's D-Line 

He's crazy...good. Crazy and good? Yeah maybe that's it

Michigan's defense is vastly improved and a lot of the credit needs to go to a veteran defensive front.  They aren't the biggest defensive line in the B1G but they do have a lot of talent.  Mike Martin has had games in his career when he was a one man wrecking crew but has battled some injuries that have slowed him down.  He appears to be healthy and regularly taking on double teams.  He has the capability to make big plays when Cousins drops back and also will be stout in the run game.  Ryan Van Bergen is the epitome of solid, he has a high motor and never stops pursuing the football.  Craig Roh has really picked up his game lately and will be a factor in the pass rush.  In an ideal world, Michigan will shut down the Spartans running game and get after Cousins in obvious passing situations with the blitz.

The defensive line for Michigan is not a dominating unit but they are a solid Big Ten D-line.  If the Spartans oft discussed offensive line issues are for real, Michigan has players capable of exploiting the weakness. 

And that brings us to...

Tbone on the Spartans O-line

I wrote this when Pat and I started the blog.

(This is a legit concern. And I wont even try to argue otherwise.  However, I will try to talk them up a bit.  Skylar Burkland is a redshirt freshman and I haven't read one bad thing about him.  Hes big, hes fast, and is knocking the defensive ends on their asses in scrimmage. Jared Mcgaha, is a senior, he has played in every eligible season and has started. hes not as thick as Dan However, Jared is 6-6. Dan France came from the defensive line.  However, he was originally recruited as a OT out of high school. This unit will make mistakes, false starts, etc.  Hopefully they will learn quick..... And you may remember this position switch, he came from the defensive line. O, here's an image:

 










 (plus with all this youth, imagine the unit next year, sounds like future best OL in the B1G.)

This still rings true and after the OSU game, we look pretty good.  I think Travis Jackson is a huge difference maker for the offensive line.  The OSU defense is solid, and after watching us give up zero sacks I feel fairly good about our ability to keep Cousins clean against UM.  This is obviously a huge difference maker, if UM can get to Cousins and get him nervous in the pocket and throwing off the back foot, it will be a long day.  I do not have a lot to say about the offensive line because I write about them every week.

(Pat interjects: Doesn't Burkland's injury turn a line with question marks and upside into a cross your fingers and pray situation?) 

So it looks like Tbone is cautiously optimistic with regards to the Spartans O-line play in this game.  Let's see how he feels about the...

Spartans Defensive line

Validating the preseason hype?

The defensive line is a different story. Again, to use the OSU game, our defensively line was dominant.  Will Gholston finally had a coming out party, and is excellent in pursuit.  This game will be a little different and the OSU game was no reason to believe we can win a game solely on defense.  Sure, we won the game basically on defense but OSU's offense is that bad.  (i think the Nebraska game was a fluke).  Keeping Denard  inside the tackles and making him throw will be a huge advantage for MSU.  There is no mistaking his ability to run the ball, his passing game leaves a lot to be desired.  Jerel Worthy needs to have a monster game especially after all the news surrounding his tattoo.  Something else to watch are hits Denard takes.  He took a lot of hits early in the Northwestern game and seems, this year, to have a great ability to bounce back.  It is always nice to get hits on the quarterback and hitting Denard, and maybe seeing UM put in an unproven QB in would be monumental.  Marcus Rush is a legit pass rushing threat.  He is a red shirt freshman defensive end who has high motor and this year has shown her can play.  Anthony Rashad White is the nose tackle, 6-2 320 pounds of hurt.  He hasnt really done a lot to impress me, but with that kind of girth he can plug holes.    If we are to win this game, the defensive line needs to get through UM's offensive line and bottle up Denard.  Stop him from running rampant and we can win this.

(Pat interjects again:  I heard in the off-season that this Spartan unit was going to be the strength of the entire team.  I've seen some concrete evidence to back that up but also have some lingering doubts.  Namely, the schedule thus far.  MSU has played some horrendous offenses.)

And to round it out...

Michigan's O-line

Thin to win

Even in the disappointing 2010 season, Michigan ran the football.  Most have attributed that success to Denard Robinson's crazy ability (that's true, obviously) but the offensive line is also deserving of plenty of credit.  Taylor Lewan will play left tackle in the NFL and David Molk will play center.  This unit (starting unit, depth is worse than shaky) is probably the best on Michigan's team.  They do come into the Spartan game with a few question marks and namely, will they be asked to drive block or zone and reach block?  They are less than mediocre at the former and tremendous at the latter.  Recruited to run the spread for Rodriguez, these guys are big but very mobile.  They aren't Wisconsin's offensive line but they are damn effective.  My expectation is that you'll see a lot of zone read this weekend as well as other zone blocking schemes to best utilize the personnel.  If Michigan tries to line up and pound the ball against MSU they may have some problems.  I'm confident Borges recognizes this and you'll see Michigan gain yards on the ground.

The match-up of Sparty d-line and UM o-line will likely determine this game.  Watch to see if Denard finds grass, if he does Michigan will be in good shape.  If Denard is constantly harassed because of pressure and third and long, well that's the other option. 

In a hypothetical world where you are the GM of an NFL team (or NBA or any pro sport)...Would you rather draft with the first and 4th picks or the 2nd and 3rd?

In my own humble opinion, I think the Spartans have the better defensive line, (1st pick), Wolverines the better offensive line (pick 2), but whereas the Michigan d-line is solid (3rd pick), the Spartans o-line is unproven and a huge question mark (pick...4? 8? 52?)

This is the week that this blog was created for so let's get some discussion in the comments.  Tell me how wrong (or right) you think I am. 

Up tomorrow: running backs and wide receivers.

Way Too Late

It's unlikely anyone is going to read this before the Michigan game starts in a few hours but here's 3 things to watch and a prediction.

Heisman hopeful's health an issue.

1. Is Persa 100%?

A healthy Dan Persa makes the Wildcats a much different team.  They will need him playing and playing at a high level to win this game.

2. Turnover Battle

I can't envision Northwestern winning this game unless they win the turnover battle.  If Michigan can protect the football and generate a couple of turnovers from the Wildcats, it should be a Wolverine victory.  If Denard throws some picks or Michigan has some fumbling issues, NW will win the game.

3. Defensive success an anomaly?

Michigan is tied for 2nd in the nation in scoring defense. (Yes, you read that correctly)  Is that a result of poor competition or a vast improvement in the play of the defense?  If Persa is healthy and Michigan is able to shut down the Wildcat offense it will be a telling sign for the rest of the season.  If Northwestern racks up over 400 yards of offense without turning the ball over, well that would be a telling sign in the opposite direction.  This is a good test for the Michigan defense.

Prediction:

I think this game has all the makings of a trap game for the Wolverines.  First road game of the season, rival Michigan State on the docket for next weekend and a 5-0 record and a stomping of Minnesota the previous week.  The coaching staff and players have been saying all the right things all week but these are college kids after all and winning on the road (even if it's 40% Michigan fans) is difficult.

With all that said, I believe Michigan is the more talented football team.  Northwestern's defense is susceptible to giving up big plays and Denard should be able to take advantage.

35-31 Michigan

OOOO BABAY

TIGERS WIN TIGERS WIN!!! 

So I was way off in my prediction of the lineup.   Inge started...on the bench.  But came in as a defensive substitute when Kelly switched to RF for Ordonez.  Fister, pitched a hell of a game.  What won the game though was the back to back jacks in the first inning.  Obviously scoring helps, but getting two runs in the first inning against a rookie pitcher has to be a total mind F--K.   He left the game with tightness in his forearm.  I smell something foul there.  He left because he was rattled and unable to throw his throws.  Leave Nova in for one more inning and the Tigers have a field day. 

Quick turnaround as the Tigers start in Texas at 7:30 on Saturday.  The pitching rotation will look like this: Game 1: JV, Game 2: Scherzer, Game 3: Fister, Game 4: Porcello, Game 5: JV, Game 6: Scherzer, Game 7: Fister.

Having JV and Fister potentially pitch 4 of the 7 games is a good thing, and I like Fister as game 7, I think hes out to prove himself.  Go into Texas win game one.  We will be looking good for the series.  We need out bats to do what they do in the humid air. 

TIGERS

MSU has a bye week before the um game.  So Pat will be handling most of the blogging duties when it comes to college sports.  While I will mostly be commenting on his posts and talking about the Tigers.  Yes, talking about the Tigers.  They play tomorrow in a decisive game 5, but I plan on talking about them longer.  Mostly because I do not plan on the Tigers losing this game. 

What went wrong in game 4?  A few things I suppose, off the top of my head, Curtis Granderson.  I used to belong to the Facebook group:  71% of Earth is covered by water, the rest is covered by Curtis Granderson, and after watching that game you can see why.  Austin Jackson, you are great and all, but you were not Granderson, last night.  Tigers fans are gonna need some jaw dropping catches tomorrow-where applicable.  


What else you say?  Well I am not sure if  I should congratulate AJ Burnett, or scorn the Tiges hitters for swining into so many double plays.  (if i were a TBS announcer i would now type that AJ has the second best stuff in baseball behind JV.  no joke, they said that in the second inning.)  Instead, DAMN YOU TIGERS BATTERS FOR HITTING INTO SO MANY DOUBLE PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You want more?  I will give you more and you will like it!!!  Wilson Betemit.  YOU SUCKED.  Getting the lefty bat in the lineup was a good idea, in theory.  In practice it was a spectacular fail.  Sure, Inge is about the worst hitter on a playoff team but so far hes 3-6 against the yankees, and he knows how to play defense.  Ride the hot bat for game 5 please.  I think Inge will come up big.  He loves it.  


my projected game 5 lineup 1 - Fister. 2 - Avila. 3 - Cabrera. 4 - Razr Ramon. 5 - INGE. 6 - Jhony. 7 - Young. 8 - Ajax. 9 - Kelly.  DH - Vmart


Only changes/surprises are that I see Inge in for Betemit and Kelly will get the nod over Magglio.  Kelly has had good bat, and offers more speed both defensively and running the bases.  


Game 5 prediction: watch the game.  but like I said earlier, I expect the Tigers to win.  

This Is Michigan

It's fair to say I was less than enthused with the Hoke hire.  It wasn't so much a knock on Hoke as disappointment in missing out on Harbaugh and the sabotaging of the 2011 recruiting class with how the entire coaching search and hiring played out.   

Hoke seemed alright.  He had turned some teams around and was well respected in coaching circles.  I was optimistic but I wouldn't say I was excited.  Hoke did strum a few chords with his answer to one question at his introductory press conference.

Then Brady hired Greg Mattison to be the defensive coordinator. A competent defensive coordinator who is also a tremendous recruiter*?  Yes please I'd love the anti Greg Robinson....I allowed myself to get a little pumped up.  

The turning point came for me before fall practice began, at the Big Ten media days.  Press conferences are just words, but there was something in what Hoke said that made me believe.  "This is Michigan" was music to my ears.  (It was apparently music to the athletic departments ears as well, as they have built the promotional campaign for this season around Hoke's comments.)

Here's my quick transcript:

The question is posed on what it will take to rebuild Michigan.  (At the 9:20 mark of the video)

"I don't think we're rebuilding.  Period.  I mean, we're Michigan.  And we've got kids who understand that they're Michigan.  So I don't put any stock into that."

When asked about recruiting. (12:20 mark)

 "This might sound arrogant and if it is, it is.  We're Michigan.  We have a global education.  We're the winningest program in the history of college football."

A 58-0 romp over a Big Ten team probably says more about Minnesota's utter incompetence than it says about Michigan's return to prominence, but a complete annihilation of a Big Ten opponent made me feel like "This is Michigan" again.  It feels good.


* Urban Meyer referred to Mattison as the best recruiter in all of college football.